Ok, reading the back and forth between Bins and Espe, I'm actually siding a bit more closely with Bins. A few things about Espe's points that are pinging me atm:
In post 83, Espeonage wrote:These are neighbourhoods where you aren't restricted by mod wifom. That makes them incredibly useful. If two people are town reading each other it functions like a mason QT which is epic. If anything it brings about wonderful opportunities for scumhunting in a one on one environment and lets people drill others for a spell when they can't call for public aid. There is so much potential int he mechanic I don't understand how limiting yourself to the ingame thread is useful at all.
We're four pages into the game here. It feels like Espe is arguing points that don't apply to this stage of the game, which looks strange to me. I know he's being aggressive with the "plan" to use the mechanic as an early tool, but I can't tell here if he's trying to defend its use in general, or defend its use early game as a replacement for RVS. Scratching my head a bit at the dissonance.
In post 87, Espeonage wrote:Ok no, firstly, in the rules scum can target themselves. So that line is categorically wrong, nothing is gained at all from discovering the NK target.
Bins hit on this in
88, but Espe's argument and use of the blanket phrase "nothing is gained at all" ignores any elements of psychology that can be used when examining NKs. Just because scum can target themselves, doesn't mean that they are as likely to target themselves as a random townie.
Scum is able to do so, but there
is
a chance that they will have no bodyguard protection, directly leading to the death of a scum, playing against their wincon. There's no rational reason for scum to target themselves when they could target a townie instead and end up with a townie dead.
In post 97, Espeonage wrote:Everyone is a bodyguard. There is next to zero chance scum are going to kill who they target. If anything, the person they target has the least chance of dying out of everyone because they can't protect themselves.
That's not how probability works. The chance that scum hits their target is far from zero, depending on your assumptions. And the last sentence doesn't even make sense -- No one has the ability to protect themselves, so that has zero effect on the chances of a given target dying.
In post 101, Espeonage wrote:If I was scum in this setup I would shoot whoever the most universally town read person as they are most likely to have the most protections on them. And if that is me, and I'm scum, I am 100% shooting at myself because it results in the most town deaths and provided I can read what people's townreads are then there is no risk at all.
That's not how the mechanic works, reread the mod rules. Regardless of how many people are protecting the target, only one person dies as a result from a scum NK.
Espe, maybe you could clarify for me if I'm misunderstanding you somewhere here?
