Micro 545 | Slavic Music Mafia | Endgame

[herrcombs]

Not only did I not get first post, but I didn't even make the first page.

Damn.

VOTE: Apricity

[herrcombs]

Not only did I not get first post, but I didn't even make the first page.

Damn.

VOTE: Apricity

Just before this gets lost. Why did you not have any comments on the plan when you came in?

I hadn't read anything on the first page when I came in. I made my post right before I went to bed last night. I woke up to learn that I already have a room and there's this plan to break up the players of the game into a large number of individual rooms.

It does seem like an interesting plan. I have zero experience with this mechanic, but it seems like it could be useful down the road in acquiring information in real time away from the main thread. Although I am not sure why it is preferable to RVS... Do you really think people can "slip up" this early in D1 (referring to the end of your 8)?

I guess I don't fully agree with the plan because I don't understand it that well.

pedit: Ok, Jester's 96 puts into words what I had swimming around in my head... I can understand isolating one person early and having the rest of us continue to communicate in the main thread, I think that way we can avoid mass chaos and still have some sort of main train of thought to follow.

pedit2: Holy crap, I wish I wasn't so slow at typing out my posts. There have been over 20 posts made since I started writing my original post, and there's much I want to respond to.

[herrcombs]

Wow, major derp moment on my part. I glossed over Expe's 12 and 15, which actually alleviate my confusion quite a bit.

Ok so my thinking here is that we can force someone out of thread. All at the same time, use two days and get everyone to report back at the end of the 48 hours.

Yeah I like this approach. The sooner the better. We won't do it for everyone, but I think this provides an interesting alternative to RVS.

[herrcombs]

Ok, reading the back and forth between Bins and Espe, I'm actually siding a bit more closely with Bins. A few things about Espe's points that are pinging me atm:

These are neighbourhoods where you aren't restricted by mod wifom. That makes them incredibly useful. If two people are town reading each other it functions like a mason QT which is epic. If anything it brings about wonderful opportunities for scumhunting in a one on one environment and lets people drill others for a spell when they can't call for public aid. There is so much potential int he mechanic I don't understand how limiting yourself to the ingame thread is useful at all.

We're four pages into the game here. It feels like Espe is arguing points that don't apply to this stage of the game, which looks strange to me. I know he's being aggressive with the "plan" to use the mechanic as an early tool, but I can't tell here if he's trying to defend its use in general, or defend its use early game as a replacement for RVS. Scratching my head a bit at the dissonance.

Ok no, firstly, in the rules scum can target themselves. So that line is categorically wrong, nothing is gained at all from discovering the NK target.

Bins hit on this in 88, but Espe's argument and use of the blanket phrase "nothing is gained at all" ignores any elements of psychology that can be used when examining NKs. Just because scum can target themselves, doesn't mean that they are as likely to target themselves as a random townie.

Scum is able to shoot themselves without dying.

Scum is able to do so, but there

is

a chance that they will have no bodyguard protection, directly leading to the death of a scum, playing against their wincon. There's no rational reason for scum to target themselves when they could target a townie instead and end up with a townie dead.

Everyone is a bodyguard. There is next to zero chance scum are going to kill who they target. If anything, the person they target has the least chance of dying out of everyone because they can't protect themselves.

That's not how probability works. The chance that scum hits their target is far from zero, depending on your assumptions. And the last sentence doesn't even make sense -- No one has the ability to protect themselves, so that has zero effect on the chances of a given target dying.

If I was scum in this setup I would shoot whoever the most universally town read person as they are most likely to have the most protections on them. And if that is me, and I'm scum, I am 100% shooting at myself because it results in the most town deaths and provided I can read what people's townreads are then there is no risk at all.

That's not how the mechanic works, reread the mod rules. Regardless of how many people are protecting the target, only one person dies as a result from a scum NK.

Espe, maybe you could clarify for me if I'm misunderstanding you somewhere here?

[herrcombs]

Prodge until tomorrow. I had some things come up IRL and I've been inactive sitewide.

[herrcombs]

Ok, I've reread but also trying to wrap my mind around the "he said she said" logic going down. I'd like to weigh in on a few things that I wanted to post a few days ago, but the end of last week was crazy and I was fairly inactive sitewide.

I mentioned earlier the back and forth between bins and espe (in my 112); I didn't really like what Espe was doing with the stretches in his logic. His response 113 didn't really do much to assuage my concerns -- yes, there were a few mechanical things that he misunderstood, but what still concerns me is that he was pushing this argument with bins using faulty reasoning and bad assumptions. In general, I don't believe using poor logic is alignment indicative, but it felt really odd that he was pushing against bins's opposition-to-the-mechanics thing and was so persistent with it. It still reads scummy to me, but I haven't really seen anything else between them since then to develop my read.

Then I caught up with the rest of the thread and saw that I had been mentioned. I can see how ns forgot our PT existed because it took me about 2.5 hours to respond to him saying "hi" (and this was after ns had voted espe in thread). We didn't really discuss a whole lot, but I'll summarize it below:

• ns says "hi" to me, I say "hi" back. He asks if I'm scum, I say no I'm town bodyguard, and he says he's town 1-shot lie detector.
  
• We chatted a bit about the espe/bins thing after I asked him about it; ns said he didn't like espe at first because he thought there was a contradiction in their PT that looked like espe was townreading bins before he voted bins. NS said he still wasn't townreading espe, but he was townreading bins.
  
• I briefly bounced my thoughts on the bins/espe back-and-forth before I posted my 112. I later indicated I wasn't happy with espe's 113 because poor logic etc, then ns asked me whether bad logic is alignment indicative, and I never responded.

Now, reading through Espe's 171, I want to know what the actual reason was that ns voted Espe in 79.

@ Espe

: do you believe ns voted you because of his 180 flip in aggression with respect to discussing the ns/herr PT?

@ ns

: Why did you vote Espe in 79?

I want to learn more about this situation before I take a stance between Espe and ns. However, I don't see a reason to keep my RVS vote on Apricity.

UNVOTE:

Hey Apricity, let's chat.

Room vote: Apricity/herr

[herrcombs]

Herrcomb's 26 where he RVS but didn't comment at all on the room discussion despite

claiming to have read the thread

pinged a bit. {snip}... Don't like Herrcomb's entry one little bit.

I never did this. I've explicitly said that I didn't read the thread prior to my entry. Maybe you misread my posts, or are you trying to misrepresent me? I don't understand how you can assign such strong scumpoints to an RVS entry.

Herrcomb's 105 comes across as really awkward and scummy to me. Ditto 112, which I liked when I first read the thread but don't anywhere near as much on a reread.

What about these two posts seem scummy to you? Do you find awkwardness to be alignment indicative? And to what do you take offense in my 112?

And sorry if you don't like that I announced my sitewide inactivity, looks like Jester actually beat me to my own response to that:

I think his "awkwardness and scumminess" as you've said may come from insecurity and guilt that he's not able to participate in the game actively

Pretty much this. I'm involved in a few different games at the moment, and I do feel guilty when I can't devote my attention to a game I have signed up for.

I actually don't like Tere's 201 at all. I feel like she's assigning undue value for strange things, especially all the emphasis on who is/isn't participating in room votes, and posting a lot of "I like this post" "this is helpful" "looks decent" just to fill space. And her push on me is terrible -- I have no idea where you came to the conclusion that I'm scum, but I find it bizarre that you just keep linking my posts and saying "feels scummy" without actually saying anything about my content. It began with your misrep of my RVS entry, and it honestly feels like you're just calling me scum for the sake of having a scumread.

VOTE: Tere

[herrcombs]

Sure I can give you the room with Jester.

Get a room: Tere/Jester

get a room

It takes 3 votes to get a room.

The_Jester and Tere

(R-0): The_Jester, Tere, herrcombs

<— ROOM

Not Voting

(6): Bins, wgeurts, notscience, Espeonage, Apricity, Postie

[herrcombs]

Lol I have been participating in the game when I've had the time. I have lots more time now, so I will be more active than I have been.

There are still questions of mine that haven't been answered yet. Including the ones I asked you!

So I'll ask again, what specifically about my posts 105 and 112 seemed scummy to you? Is it just the "awkwardness" thing? What changed your mind about my 112?

[herrcombs]

@ Espe: do you believe ns voted you because of his 180 flip in aggression with respect to discussing the ns/herr PT?

[herrcombs]

Room: Tere/Espe

get a room

It takes 3 votes to get a room.

Espeonage and Tere

(R-0): Espeonage, Tere, herrcombs

<— ROOM

Not Voting

(6): Bins, wgeurts, notscience, Apricity, Postie, The_Jester

[herrcombs]

it might have been a clique show of solidarity with Bins.

Yeah, this was my thought the first time I read the progression of 77-78-79. But then I read the line in your 171 "He had zero reason to take this stance, and this is the same time he votes me in thread" and it sounded to me like you were making the argument that ns's vote was due to something other than the bins/espe back and forth.

So far, I think Postie is looking pretty town. I think her descriptions and analysis of her PT with ns have prompted some good discussion. It looks like she's trying to be thorough and gather info from multiple sources and cross-reference it in order to present her suspicions of ns. The way she is reaching out to figure out the game reads strongly town to me. Between ns and Espe, I am leaning town on Espe and leaning scum on ns. I still want to hear ns's answer to my question in 186, and his promised response to the push against him, before I make a more solid decision.

pedit: @ Tere's 224: I understand your push against me much better now, thanks. I'm in the middle of rereading the thread again, so I'll let you know what else I come up with aside from what I've already said.

ps: one thing I missed, just so you won't be waiting up for it:

Notty, what, if anything has Herrcombs posted in your hood?

Same to Apricity?

We still can't speak about each other. Our restriction lasts for another 1 day 12 hours. (

Mod: am I allowed to say that?

)

Yeah, you may remind people that you have a post restriction in response to direct questions. --P

[herrcombs]

I'm here right now, so I can oblige

Get a room: Tere and bins

[herrcombs]

@Apricity do you have any scumreads atm? Your latest readlist mentioned only town/null reads.

Still catching up. I'll get back to you on this.

Okay, so. I've got Postie, Bins, Jester as likely town. Unsure how to feel about the notti/espe thing. That'll probably have to wait till notti posts whatever he was planning to post since

he admitted that he lied

. Still processing the Tere/herrcombs exchange. Wgeurts is null to slight town. Has he been replaced yet?

Where did ns admit that he lied? If you're referring to the following posts, I don't think he's saying "I lied" for the reasons you think he is:

I lied I'll reply after I put pizza in the oven.

I lied, I will be back later when I can post without being overly hostile.

Context is important. Unless ns admitted to you in your PT that he lied?

[herrcombs]

Why did he say that he lied, then?

I formally acknowledge

there is a large post I have to respond to but cba atm.

I lied I'll reply after I put pizza in the oven.

I lied, I will be back later when I can post without being overly hostile.

...Seems pretty clear to me that he said he was lying first about

when

he was going to respond to the "large post" (could be 170 or 171, actually kind of ambiguous); the second time he said "I lied" was to further delay his response. It did not seem like he admitted to lying within his PTs with epse and postie, and I think several of us are in the same boat waiting for a substantive response on the matter.

[herrcombs]

Also, notscience currently only has two votes on him despite basically being scum by default unless he explains himself properly. Can we get some more people on this wagon? Preferably L-1 so there's enough pressure on him to force him to say something so that:
a) we don't help scum by stalling the game, and
b) he doesn't have time to think up and elaborate story or plan if he's scum

Yeah, I agree that ns has taken a suspicious amount of time to respond to the push. It concerns me that we need to hear an account from Bins of why ns has been absent. Why can't ns just explain it himself? What's so difficult?

UNVOTE:
VOTE: notscience

[herrcombs]

Thanks for the welcome but

VOTE: Postie

Why?

Me explaining why I want to lynch someone is pointless.

I'm voting them, just leave it at that.

Postie is extremely superficial and is overemphasizing her whys and questions but not really pushing for anything or taking strong stances.

She's trying too hard to look like a good townie while not really being a good townie.

This brief exchange bothers me. Why is RC's immediate reaction to "why did you put down a vote with no explanation" claiming that elaboration is pointless? Why is explaining your thought process behind a desired lynch pointless? Is it because you wanted to elucidate a reaction first?... But if that's the case, why did you change your mind so quickly and start cooperating?

To me, this looks like someone who is concerned with how they look to others.

@ Tere:

when your post restriction with RC ends, I'd be interested to hear why "RC looks very town" to you (as you put in 312).

I don't recall ever forming an opinion about wgeurts before they replaced out, so I'll have to reexamine their play -- but so far I'm not really understanding the townreads on RC.

[herrcombs]

Sure

get a room: Rc + herr

[herrcombs]

I'd like this to happen

Get a room: herr/bins

[herrcombs]

That sounds

awfully mysterious

. I'm under impression there's much more going on in these PTs than in the main thread.

Cool. Care to give an opinion on what's been happening in the content you can see?

[herrcombs]

I am really behind and about to go back to bed, but

Bins' explanation of her ns read, reads as a scum read apart from the last line where she calls him town

. idgi.

Huh, I didn't get that at all when I read her reads list. Are you arguing that bins's townread of ns is manufactured?

[herrcombs]

K, so I'm trying to digest ns's 363, but I'm having a hard time. Think I've been staring at this game too much today, and all of the hearsay is making my mind swim.

I need a break for a day or two. Several players are on V/LA until Monday, so I'm going to give myself a bit of space to try to sort things out.

[herrcombs]

get a room: postie/herr

get a room

It takes 3 votes to get a room.

Postie and herrcombs

(R-0): Postie, Tere, herrcombs

<— ROOM

Bins and herrcombs

(R-3): herrcombs

Not Voting

(6): Bins, notscience, Espeonage, The_Jester, Apricity, RadiantCowbells

[herrcombs]

Ok, here's the direction I want to take.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: RadiantCowbells

I don't like RC's push on me in the slightest. I don't like how little he's interacted with people in the main thread. I don't like his entrance and interaction with Apricity that I pointed out in my 334. I'm going to dump some supporting info that has led me to view RC as scum:

After I posted my 334, RC called for a PT between me and him. He asked me two questions: what my exact read on Postie was; and if I'm scumreading RC, why go for the NS lynch over his. Here was my response (p.s. I got a greenlight from the mod to quote myself in what I said in PTs):

Spoiler: my first post to RC

I am townreading Postie. I like how she has been pushing on multiple people so far today. I read the accounts from both Espe and Postie regarding their PTs with notscience, and they seem town motivated. I like the way Postie presented her posts 161, 170, and 180, and I don't see them as coming from scum. I think she is actually doing a great job promoting discussion and keeping pressure on ns. So in all that, I disagree with your conclusion in your 302 where you said "Postie is extremely superficial and... not really pushing for anything."

I'm going for the notscience lynch because I think Postie may be on to something concrete (regarding her PT with ns). The fact that ns has yet to address his incongruities in the main thread, and is relying on bins as a spokesperson, looks to me like he's scum trapped in a corner and trying to figure out a way either to weasel his way out, or to stay out of the public eye long enough for people to lose interest in his wagon. I don't have nearly as strong a scumread on you, hence why I'm voting for him over you at the moment.

So now a few of my own questions for you:
What were you "super confused" about after you entered the game in your post 292?
Have you played in a game before that uses this mechanic (timeout PTs), and briefly, what are your thoughts on it?
Who is your strongest scumread at the moment and why?
In your 310, you indicated that you were interested in a PT with Bins for reasons that "lose value if I explain it." Care to elaborate on that reason for me?

I asked the second question because he had recently replaced in, and I wanted to see if he used similar language/reasoning that other people had used in the game or privately with me. I felt like that info might be useful later on, once we get a scumflip. He said that question had no point, would not produce an alignment-indicative response, and it was "fucking fake dude." He said that it was half of his reason for scumreading me. (He said this before I explained why I asked him the question.) His other answers to my questions were, respectively, "the lynch mechanics;" it was Postie but now it's me (without further elaboration); and basically 'I'm not telling you because you're not town'. He told me that he's going to spend this game getting me lynched or die trying.

After I asked him what the other half of his reason was (I actually had to repeat my question because he was ignoring questions I was asking him: 1) what the "other half" of his reason was for scumreading me, and 2) what he would do once I flipped town), he thinks Postie and I are scumbuddies and I was chainsaw defending her with my post 334 in the main thread. I pointed out to him "Postie's been your only push this game (well, before your switch to me). And I thought it was suspicious, so of course I would call it out." Then I pointed out the following regarding his "chainsaw defense" theory, which he has yet to respond to:

Spoiler: chainsaw defense theory

If you think it's a chainsaw, wouldn't Postie be the one you'd want to lynch today? From what I understand about the theory of chainsaws (at least, what it says in the wiki) is that the tell only really applies in one direction. (If postie flipped scum it would look terrible for me because I was supposedly defending her.) If I flipped scum, my "defense" of Postie could not really be used as effectively to implicate her (since I could very well have been white-knighting her). I just want you to stop and think about this. Do you agree with my interpretation of the theory?

We didn't chat much since then. Well, I observed that he was probably going to find the support for my lynch, and I warned him if he's town against using misunderstandings/misrepresentations to push my wagon that could lead town down another mislynch rabbit hole tomorrow, to which he said 'there's no way at all that I'm getting mislynched this game, so don't you worry.' I have asked RC to disclose his thought processes to me in case I can clear up any confusion (because to me obviously he's confused about something since he wants a townie dead so badly), but he's made it very clear that he doesn't want to work with me and there's little I can do at this point to change his mind.

Then he asked me another couple of questions yesterday (that I did not see until today) that stink like shit. Q1: why I voted NS and then immediately set RC up as a "future vote switch after". Q2: he noted that my push against NS was based on things NS was currently doing and "not his alignment", leaving it very easy for me to switch. These are both absurd questions (and the first one is a flat-out loaded question designed to trap me). Is it against the rules or something to scumhunt and put pressure on people you're not voting for at the time? And it feels like RC is accusing me of being scummy for trying to gather evidence to develop my reads, rather than convincing myself of someone's alignment and then seeking evidence for that. Doesn't this seem backwards to anyone else?

And to the next person that says "wow herr ur being so defensive!!1!" Damn right I'm being defensive. I need to defend myself from absurd and bullshit cases that have apparently garnered enough support to put me at L-2 and that I think are being driven by scum trying to get an easy mislynch. RC is pushing a case against me based on unflipped associations and other shit that he's trying to say is scummy just cause. I don't see a reason for town doing this.

I don't have much more time today or tomorrow to devote to this game, so I'm going to post my reads next. If you want to ask me questions about them, feel free -- I'll do my best to elaborate before the day is over.

This unfortunately breaks your post restriction with Postie. You can talk about her in (expired on 2015-11-10 18:05:00). --P

[herrcombs]

Current reads:

notscience: leanscum
The_Jester: null
Postie: town
RC: scum
Apricity: null
Tere: leantown
Bins: town
Espe: leantown

This breaks your postie post restriction unfortunately. You can talk about her in (expired on 2015-11-10 18:05:00)

[herrcombs]

Nope, you're assuming a certain intent behind my posts based on the alignment you think I am, rather than taking all evidence into consideration and then forming a read.

I know which alignment that makes more sense coming from.

[herrcombs]

can we lynch Espe

Could you remind me what your problem with Espe is? Is it anything new, or does it go back to that early game stuff? (For having him as your strongest scumread in your 317, it doesn't look like you've really elaborated all that much recently on why he's scummiest to you...)

Oh and speaking of your 317, what's your read on Tere? And The_Jester?

[herrcombs]

Just a heads up -- I won't be able to respond to anything within the next 8 hours or so.

I'd just like to point out that I'm at L-1 with very little substantial evidence being submitted to the main thread for me to respond to, and less than two days until the deadline. I'd like to point out that nobody has asked me about my readslist, no one seems interested in any of the substance I've submitted so far -- and I think we all know how this is going to end.

When I flip town, you should reexamine those people on my wagon who drove it for the wrong reasons, and those who intentionally stayed out of the public eye while my wagon was being paraded by those who fancy themselves town leader.

If I'm hammered and flip before I get a chance to respond, I'd like to say thanks for the day 1 and good luck with the rest of the game. And thanks Plot for the invite to your game.

[herrcombs]

Why? What changed? And what was with your ns vote in 435?

[herrcombs]

I'm okay with a NS lynch. Apricity less so... She's pretty firmly in my "null" pool, I can't remember much that really pings me as alignment indicative either way. @ RC: when you say she seems "really guarded and afraid" (458), to what are you referring?

I won't be able to post again for the next 9 hours or so (same reason as yesterday, parents visiting from out of town).

UNVOTE: RC
VOTE: NS

[herrcombs]

@Herr you've stated you see Espe as a townlean before. Is it still valid? If not, what reasons do you see based on which Espe would be a better lynch?

Missed this question earlier. I'll copy what I wrote to Postie, Apricity, and NS yesterday, about 34 hours ago:

"I have him as leaning town at the moment, I still hold weight in (Postie's) idea that one between ns/espe is lying, and I think ns is the more likely one to be lying. Therefore, between the two, espe is more likely to be town.

What still gives me doubts is the number of times Espe sort of appears in the main thread, makes little comments without making big pushes or giving stances, and then departs. Could be IRL stuff keeping him busy, or it could be scum tactic. I'd have to see more to decide. And I haven't had a PT with him, so it feels like the potency of my read on him is suffering as a result (because it seems like there's so little being discussed in the main thread while more is happening behind the scenes)."

Certainly, a no-lynch Day 1 is not an option. There are things that bother me about both ns and espe, and while I've held ns in greater suspicion throughout today, I'd probably hammer espe to avoid a no-lynch. Same goes for Apricity.

[herrcombs]

Could I get answers to these questions before the day is over?

@Bins:

Oh and speaking of your 317, what's your read on Tere? And The_Jester?

@RC:

And what was with your ns vote in 435?

when you say (Apricity) seems "really guarded and afraid" (458), to what are you referring?

[herrcombs]

I'm here, just woke up.

Intent to hammer Apricity.

[herrcombs]

Ok, it's been an hour with no responses. Let's get this done.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Apricity

That's a hammer! It is now twilight. All living players (including the person who was just lynched) may talk in twilight. Twilight lasts until the next pagetop, or until my bedtime, unless the lynched person asks me privately to flip them sooner. --P

[herrcombs]

I asked for this earlier, and I'll ask for it again.

VOTE: Get a room: Herr and Bins

Not in twilight, sorry. --P

[herrcombs]

Checking in. I am still on board with a NS lynch, although I've never been in a game with a turbolynch this fast and my instincts tell me we should slow down a tad.

Bins: why would you feel the need to lie? Lying serves scum waay better than it serves town. Which two people did you "claim the lie" to?

[herrcombs]

... I'm embarrassed it took me that long to recognize your avatar.

[herrcombs]

I'm fine with mine being released too. Thanks for the game.

[herrcombs]

I'm so salty my assured mislynch died.

u mad bro