Blitz 14: Murder on Madness Mountain GAME OVER!

Rob14 · Post Post #375 (ISO) » Thu Dec 31, 2015 12:12 am

Still need to read Ranger's wall, but in response to 368, you're asking the wrong question. At Night 2, the scum knows that Jackal is going down due to his claim before the no lynch. They know that this will place town in MyLo, resulting in a no lynch. So they have three kills (Nights 2, 3, 4) to decide who gets to be in 3p LyLo. They can choose who gets to LyLo out of: {Ranger, Fire, Dave, Soren, Absinthe, Rob}. They are one of those people and need to kill three.

If I were scum, I would have left Soren alive, who didn't seem to have a handle on the game, was scum reading Ranger, and didn't seem to give a rat's ass about finding scum. Soren also specifically made statements saying that they preferred lynching Ranger over me. What's my motivation to not keep Soren alive in that situation? It's kind of obvious I'd want to go into LyLo with {Ranger, Soren} and let Soren vote Ranger for the win. At least in my opinion it's obvious.

And yet Soren was killed Night 3.

I can see you bringing {Ranger, Fire, Rob} to LyLo because I think I made it pretty obvious I was near certain Ranger was scum.

Ranger bringing {Ranger, Fire, Rob} to LyLo is more questionable, and I need to think about it more. WIFOM is a strong possibility. It's a strategy that I've had success with myself in the past, in that game I linked to you and others. I do have to wonder whether {Ranger, Absinthe, Rob} would have been a better choice, though. The kill on Dave would be enough WIFOM, and Absinthe was very slightly leaning toward me as scum over Ranger. Specifically, Absinthe didn't like my case on Ranger. So I don't know why Ranger wouldn't keep Absinthe in if scum.

Gotta think about that last part more.

Rob14 · Post Post #376 (ISO) » Thu Dec 31, 2015 12:12 am

VOTE: Ranger

Firebringer · Post Post #377 (ISO) » Thu Dec 31, 2015 12:13 am

Well played Rob, you deserved this.

Rob14 · Post Post #378 (ISO) » Thu Dec 31, 2015 12:13 am

I can't believe Ranger changed to a scum-read on you. I ... did not expect that.

Firebringer · Post Post #379 (ISO) » Thu Dec 31, 2015 12:14 am

In post 378, Rob14 wrote:I can't believe Ranger changed to a scum-read on you. I ... did not expect that.

She honestly didn't, you were scum the whole time. I couldn't follow Ranger logic, and she wasn't making any sense.

Firebringer · Post Post #380 (ISO) » Thu Dec 31, 2015 12:15 am

There was no way I saw Ranger actually voting you.

Firebringer · Post Post #381 (ISO) » Thu Dec 31, 2015 12:22 am

I am going to sleep now, going to be expecting a lot of shit when I wake up to read post game chatter.

Ranger · Post Post #382 (ISO) » Thu Dec 31, 2015 12:23 am

Rob13 wrote:Some people express Soren concerns and immediately you're trying to start a counter-wagon there to save yourself? There's no way you aren't scum.

This continues to be as valid a point now as it was then.

Jackal711 wrote:Fire comes off as scummy to me.. though I don't like the fact that Soren's posts have been nothing but an attempt to push the Fire wagon.

At least one of those 2 is scum...

Jackal notes Firebringer as scum, but does not vote. 86 also remains just as true as it was when I posted it: Firebringer's reads were contradictory. He had me as town at first, and then without explanation, changed the read, as if the read was never real. This is reinforced when, IMMEDIATELY after having JUST called me scum, Firebringer again switches the read here:

Firebringer wrote:Can you point out what we learn from lynching Ranger right now?

I can't see any clear associations so finding a scum partner from there is useless. I guess it sort of clears me and ricastle, but Ranger could be bussing either one of us.

Jackal711 wrote:Still think Fire's most likely to be scum but willing to entertain other options.

Again, Jackal mentions Firebringer as scum but does not pursue it.

absinthe wrote:Ranger, I have concerns about you.

But a Jackal711 lynch might be what I'd like to see today.

After absinthe posts this...guess which one Firebringer goes for?

Firebringer wrote:Soren its hard to stay mad at you with that adorable avatar of yours.

VOTE: Ranger

How about this train guys?

Firebringer drops the Soren scumread for no reason and pursues a wagon on me.

If ranger is scum I can't see Davesaz being her teammate so I guess he would be cleared....
Weird cause I always think he is scum.
Perhaps Jackal? I mean thats a lazy association but meh.

Saying this in spite of
*There being a Jackal wagon
*Me expressing my suspicion on Jackal
*Jackal voting me. Admittedly, the latter two happen after the comment, but the position holds, because Firebringer doesn't unvote after Jackal votes.

Jackal's vote in 204 flies in the face of his previously-stated Firebringer suspicion. He dropped the Firebringer suspicion altogether.

However, the true tell is this:

Read 217. In that post, Firebringer defends Jackal

. He says, and I quote,

Firebringer wrote:I don't know about that. Seems odd that Jackal voted and unvoted fast sure, but that seems more like a town tell than a scum one.

Rob, you asked Firebringer the question,

Rob13 wrote:How does quickly backing down once you're pressured make him seem town?

Firebringer never answers.

Furthermore, let's look at what Firebringer posts next

.

Firebringer wrote:Also I would much rather lynch Ranger, why aren't we doing that instead of Jackal?

This is 238. He is, once more, defending Jackal. This culminates in the end-of-day votecount:

Ythan wrote:Ranger: Firebringer, Rob13, Soren (3)
Jackal711: absinthe, Ranger, davesaz (3)

Firebringer was pushing me. Rob tried to switch from me (town) onto Jackal (scum). Yet Firebringer remained on me.

I may have missed a point or two, but this is why I think it's Firebringer.

Firebringer · Post Post #383 (ISO) » Thu Dec 31, 2015 12:24 am

Ranger, we already lynched you.

Rob13 was scum. So we both fail.

Ranger · Post Post #384 (ISO) » Thu Dec 31, 2015 12:25 am

...And now I look like a total idiot.

Ranger · Post Post #385 (ISO) » Thu Dec 31, 2015 12:27 am

I really should have been very obviously not scum, though.
You were hardcore buddying Rob and townreading him. He let that happen. He brought you in, and you were scumreading me. He couldn't let players live that were thinking I was town, so I knew it was going to be a Firebringer-Rob13-Ranger lylo. I just thought that the order of the deaths would be telling, and Soren's death first threw me off.

Firebringer · Post Post #386 (ISO) » Thu Dec 31, 2015 12:29 am

Ranger, if I voted Rob13.

Would you have lynched him?
Cause I made my case. Granted it wasn't a strong case.

Ranger · Post Post #387 (ISO) » Thu Dec 31, 2015 12:30 am

But for the record: I very much was not planning on voting tonight. While I did think you were scum, Firebringer, off of the above reasons, you'll note the post didn't end with a vote. That's because I was going to let you and Rob go over it.

Ranger · Post Post #388 (ISO) » Thu Dec 31, 2015 12:32 am

Firebringer wrote:Ranger, if I voted Rob13.

Would you have lynched him?
Cause I made my case. Granted it wasn't a strong case.

Same thing: I wouldn't have voted you, I wouldn't have voted Rob. I would have spent every spare second I had available letting both sides present their arguments, give my own, let both sides respond to it, and then make my decision from there.

You actually rose some good points. Had you waited like I asked you to, I would have read them.

Rob14 · Post Post #389 (ISO) » Thu Dec 31, 2015 1:12 am

In post 385, Ranger wrote:I really should have been very obviously not scum, though.
You were hardcore buddying Rob and townreading him. He let that happen. He brought you in, and you were scumreading me. He couldn't let players live that were thinking I was town, so I knew it was going to be a Firebringer-Rob13-Ranger lylo. I just thought that the order of the deaths would be telling, and Soren's death first threw me off.

I went into Night 2 knowing I could choose any 3 for LyLo, so I purposefully messed with the order to make it seem weird.

If you know Night 2 that you have 3 kills with little to zero discussion in between, there's no motivation to use the normal order.

Rob14 · Post Post #390 (ISO) » Thu Dec 31, 2015 1:13 am

I did also mention in the scum PT that I thought I could get Fire to quick-vote. I couldn't, but Ranger could, apparently. It's a quick-vote all the same.

Firebringer · Post Post #391 (ISO) » Thu Dec 31, 2015 1:20 am

In post 390, Rob14 wrote:I did also mention in the scum PT that I thought I could get Fire to quick-vote. I couldn't, but Ranger could, apparently. It's a quick-vote all the same.

I like to quick vote.
But I was supper pissed off at you for no lynching yesterday.

Rob14 · Post Post #392 (ISO) » Thu Dec 31, 2015 1:40 am

Why? It's optimal in MyLo.

Ythan · Post Post #393 (ISO) » Thu Dec 31, 2015 7:41 am

With

town nurse

Ranger lynched and

town doctor-enabler

Firebringer endgamed,

mafia ninja

Rob13 and his buddy Jackal711 win the game!

Ythan · Post Post #394 (ISO) » Thu Dec 31, 2015 7:44 am

Dead chat.

Soren · Post Post #395 (ISO) » Thu Dec 31, 2015 7:46 am

Oh hey, firebringer wasn't scum.

Soren · Post Post #396 (ISO) » Thu Dec 31, 2015 7:47 am

Well played Rob.

Rob14 · Post Post #397 (ISO) » Thu Dec 31, 2015 7:49 am

Thanks. I thought I played kinda shit though. I went all-in on Ranger, but she made good arguments. I did genuinely think it looked like she was lining up lynches when I made the argument, but she eventually explained it to what would have been my satisfaction had I been town. At that point, though, I was fairly committed and I just went for the jugular.

The Jackal claim was unexpected.

Rob14 · Post Post #398 (ISO) » Thu Dec 31, 2015 7:51 am

I do think my LyLo play was good, though. That was the one thing I was satisfied with this game.

davesaz · Post Post #399 (ISO) » Thu Dec 31, 2015 8:01 am

I called it over in dead chat. Rob did do well to look town enough that I didn't attack him strong for the lining up lynches thing earlier. I also suspected when he hung around at night (RL time) trying to squeeze in the Ranger lynch.

Reflexively going for no lynch with no discussion at all was a killer. Always discuss, at least do the NKA and even VCA before ending the mylo day.