Micro 632 - Mislead [Game Over]

[podoboq]

Yoooo. At work now, so can't post a lot.

We have eight days. That's lots o' time.

If you future sight without consulting town and getting approval first, you are claiming scum. Don't do it.

[podoboq]

Is there anyone so new to mafia that they don't know something like this? I know this involves a mechanic not normally in the game but seriously, raise your hands if you were thinking about being recklessly stupid until you read that.

I can imagine town or scum deciding to force their plan into effect by using FS immediately. Everyone had time to theorycraft on their own for this, and I'm sure a number of townie players came in with an idea of what they want to do. It's possible someone came to the conclusion that they can break the game, and that they can FS right off the bat to force their solution to be the one we use.

I want to make it clear that anybody who tries to do this that it's an antitown move, and they will be viewed as good as conf scum for doing it. People are dumb, I don't want to take chances.

[podoboq]

VOTE: Infinity

His latest posts seem fake and forced
Also the way he jumped the gun with his theory makes me feel uneasy

Can you please use FOS instead of voting? We're not voting to lynch people like this, so please don't give scum a window to get a lolhammer in out of nowhere.

[podoboq]

For everyone talking about lynching potential scum, WE LYNCH NOBODY EXCEPT CONFIRMED SCUM.

If there is a dispute between two future sight users, we have no 100% way to know which of them is scum until the next day, when the scum took the path they said wasn't safe. So you lynch then, but never before.

If there is a dispute, you find the answer automatically during the next day, thereby confirming scum.

[podoboq]

Ok here's what I got.

If there's a player we can bet the game on being town, we have them future sight and follow their lead. Otherwise, we have the 2 towniest players future sight. If they match, we just follow that path. Both those players are most likely town since it's to scum's advantage to lie about which is the right path. If the future sights don't match, you split up. The lying one becomes outed the next day, and you lynch them. (Don't lynch until you have confirmed scum). Also, if someone doesn't go down the path they were assigned, they are confirmed scum.

Don't think these really breaks the game but it gives us a good chance to win.

VOTE: zyf

Looking over the game, I have to say that while I agree with much of this strategy, there are differences to my own, and the differences seem to only benefit scum. For instance, saying if there is a dispute to split up first, then lynch the next day. Why the hell would we do that? That will eliminate half or more of the town instead of a possible one mislynch. Also, the exclusion of a middle man, and just randomly picking two players could prove disastrous for town. And you are even bold enough to say that we may even trust the entire fate of the game to one person if we all consider them town.... No one is town enough for that unless they are confirmed, and they cannot be confirmed until after they future sight and prove themselves, so what you say is very dangerous to town. I do agree with the fact that if a player fails to go down their assigned path it's virtually a scum confession, but we shouldn't come to that until day 5.

If you lynch a player, they don't flip until the next day. Otherwise, this game would be almost 100% town win.

[podoboq]

I think we should vote on 2 players, one to future sight and one to choose a player who will do the second future sight.

I agree with this, but I don't want to explain why, because I think it benefits scum to understand fully why this is the best option for town.

[podoboq]

For now I think we should vote on who should be the first person to future sight, and have them popcorn it to a middle man, etc.

It's day one. We have eight days. We're not doing any of this shit yet.

[podoboq]

Do you think I should explain the details? Or should I stay silent about them until they become relevant in the hope that scum misplay?

Let scum misplay. The biggest goal of day one is to get a few very solid town reads in the bag so that we can trust their gameplan without them having to divulge all of the "why" of it.

[podoboq]

That is brilliant!! How did I not think of that?? Because we will out scum without anyone dying by doing this. We will be down 1 fs, but if we catch both scum this way, we will only need to use one per day afterwards.

You aren't thinking this through correctly. If two players say left and one says right, it's possible that the two players who said left are both scum. If we assume they're telling the truth, we all die.

You can't "catch both scum this way," because if you pick both scum, everyone dies.

[podoboq]

@mod: V/LA

Gen con is happening in Indy right now, and I'm gonna have to mark myself V/LA because of it. Still gonna read up during that time, probably post a little.

I think we should hold off on any future sighting until afterward, not just because I'll have more time to invest in the theory of it, but because we should give the game time for reads to sink in before we start making decisions.

Also, @zyf, infinity, and java: At a certain point, it stops being scumhunting, and just becomes shitposting. Cool it.

[podoboq]

PEDIT: @podoboq, how long's the V/LA for?

Thought V/LA told you when I'd be back on the roll over. Gen Con will be over Sunday, so I expect to be busy throughout the weekend. I'll be paying attention, but I'll be back in full force Monday.

[podoboq]

Please read the infinity exchange

Which one? He (and others) never seem to shut up

[podoboq]

Kind if just skimming right now. Something to add, though, assuming nobody else brought it up yet.

Between the top two town reads, the highest town read should be the one to pick the second FS. We're alright with scum using FS, but we don't want scum making the decision of who gets to FS, because they will guarantee we are eliminating two town FS. So if we graduate between me and CFJ for example, the one with most votes in the end should be the one to nominate, and the less towny player should be forced to FS.

Also, my picks are CFJ and BBmolla

[podoboq]

Typos because on phone while working my booth :s

[podoboq]

So have we determined that CoJ is going to FS, and I'm going to select the next player? If so, does CoJ FS first, I do I select the second player first?

[podoboq]

I choose Algebra.

[podoboq]

What's the point? What could we discuss? It's just a waste of time since there was no dispute between the two fs.

For one, I thought picking Algebra to FS would be a little controversial, and Algebra coming in instantly to do it was a little weird. It's surprising to me that you don't want to talk about it.

[podoboq]

Also podoboq--why do you sr algebra

I don't trust lurkers, and I don't want to be forced to trust one when we elect a scummier player than CfJ to FS.

This game is about finding associations between players, and if algebra refuses to have interactions with other players, I want to waste his ability to FS early so that he isn't a liability for town later.

[podoboq]

Zyf if you go b just to die and prove you are town, you are the dumbest person on site.

I agree with this. Will blacklist from all future games any players who are so antitown they will literally flip themselves just to prove people wrong.

[podoboq]

Zyf if you go b just to die and prove you are town, you are the dumbest person on site.

I agree with this. Will blacklist from all future games any players who are so antitown they will literally flip themselves just to prove people wrong.

Also, game throwers like this are deserving of a post-flip modkill. You don't deserve to win for shit like that.

[podoboq]

Is zyf a town fool, or a scum manipulator?

In the general case like this, I've been gradually shifting my assumption toward players being colossal morons rather than fantastic manipulators, and I've found that I'm right more often than I'm wrong now.

[podoboq]

I sr podo because obv you didn't see their explanation for choosing algebra--it was because algebra was a "liability to town" rather that because "I think they are scum"

I saw the position I was put in as kinda like a vigilante. As vig, I always shoot the player who's most antitown no matter what way you slice it, and day 1, (when my reads are generally bad), that's generally a lurker who provides no way to read him or find associations in the case that he's scum. Please read my responses to dramonic in Rob13's Musical Mafia. I hate lurkers with a fiery passion, and I want to remove all of algebra's ability to control this game now, since I don't think given any responsibility, he would be trustworthy.

[podoboq]

I sr podo because obv you didn't see their explanation for choosing algebra--it was because algebra was a "liability to town" rather that because "I think they are scum"

I saw the position I was put in as kinda like a vigilante. As vig, I always shoot the player who's most antitown no matter what way you slice it, and day 1, (when my reads are generally bad), that's generally a lurker who provides no way to read him or find associations in the case that he's scum. Please read my responses to dramonic in Rob13's Musical Mafia. I hate lurkers with a fiery passion, and I want to remove all of algebra's ability to control this game now, since I don't think given any responsibility, he would be trustworthy.

Spoiler: quote from day 1 of that game

On Dramonic: Cakez says this is just how Dram plays. If that's just true, and Dram is town, fuck him anyway VOTE: Dramonic. He's contributing nothing. Call it policy, because it is. Dramonic doesn't deserve to survive into day two if he insists on being useless. If he's scum, we get no opportunities to read him. If he's town, he's the most expendable member of town.

I entirely expect him to come in with a oneliner about how I'm scum, and so are the other people voting for him.

Dram, if you're actually town, and you're seriously so dense that you assume we're all scum for disliking this play, then ISO people and start giving some logic that town can use.

(find the quote here)

[podoboq]

I like how everyone's ignoring what i'm trying to get them to absorb in favor of arguing with me

I am not ignoring you, but your arguments are completely invalid and useless. If they are scum, they are a non threat to town and no point in arguing about them, or throwing shade at them.

So.
You tell me that you don't want me to conftown myself. Fine, fine. Makes enough sense.
Next, i'm pretty much informed I have a 0% chance of being selected by town to fs tomorrow
Then, you say there's no way in fuck you're going to bother with my stuff because it's coming from a scummy player (tunneling?)
Which circles me back to wanting to conftown myself because that's the best/only way to contribute

Alright Zyf, let me be straight with you.

I think you're town. I don't think scum generally acts like this. But honestly, I don't give a shit what your alignment is right now. All I want is your FS. If you suicide yourself and conftown yourself, you are

useless

to this game. That is the case for

every one of us

. Your value to town is in using your FS, and getting us half a day closer to winning, and if you are removed from the game, you provide absolutely nothing. You being conftown doesn't make any of your reads correct, and will not in any way further the town win condition. The only way for you to help town win, is by manning up, putting your read out there for us to hear, and making as good a case as you can, then doing as town requests of you when it comes to using your FS. If you are town, and you don't intend to do that,

replace out

.

[podoboq]

Shouldn't we be having pseudo-conftown (ppl that already used fs) pick the scummy fs-ers from tomorrow on?

Neither algebra nor CfS are conftown or even psuedo-conftown.

[podoboq]

Ok, so this is my concern now. Hear me out because this is probably a stretch.

In the OP, it says scum have a PT, and I am assuming that is a Day talk chat, but not sure.

Mod - Do scum have Daytime Chat

Now if they do, then the whole reason Zyf may have wanted to extend the day today, was to post all of this crap and get himself universally scum read. Like he said, he only has 2 months experience, but his partner may be walking him through this. He would only want to be universally scum read if his partner was universally town read and is likely to become the FS'er tomorrow. And do to his inexperience, and the sophistication of such a plan, his partner would have to be very experienced. That would mean that his partner would either have to be me or podo since we are the only 2 left that are likely to be voted tomorrow (no offense guys). I really think we should not give a fs to zyf at all tomorrow if we pick me or podo as the FS. I have a feeling this is some sort of elaborate trap.

Think about what your strategy would be as scum. With the way things lay right now, if you were scum, how would you try to claw your way out. This seems like a very plausible scum plan. Just think on it guys.

I completely understand what you're saying, and I think this perspective is towny, but I think it's a little too paranoid to completely cripple our decision tomorrow. Nonetheless, Zyf would not be my choice for anything tomorrow under almost any circumstance. He's not the scummiest player in the game, and he's not towny enough to trust to elect another player.

[podoboq]

Shouldn't we be having pseudo-conftown (ppl that already used fs) pick the scummy fs-ers from tomorrow on?

Neither algebra nor CfS are conftown or even psuedo-conftown.

>.>
We JUST went through why they are approx. 30 mins ago

I don't care what conclusion you drew. If I were scum algebra there, I would pretend to be towny and say the correct path. If I were scum CfJ, I'd absolutely do that, because I'm not going to gamble by lying day one when I have no idea who podoboq is going to elect, and there's a 1/7 chance that he picks my scum partner.

I'm not looking at either as conftown in any way.

[podoboq]

@CFJ

: People get my username wrong all the time too. When an ongoing game ends, I'm gonna sig a lot of them.

[podoboq]

Podo if one scum lies the other scum has to kill 7 people in 2 days with 1 future sight followed by immediate suspicion

I want to make a shorthand here for "Don't make me explain everything or I'll just be giving the scumteam potential strategic advice."

I think I'm just gonna go with this.

[podoboq]

Jj you're making no sense
You say I'm scum but you want me alive juust in case I'm town but you don't want me to fs initially but because I'm scummy to you I make a terrible dispute deciding candidate
When exactly are you expecting me to fs

I am saying that I think you are acting scummy so that whoever is chosen tomorrow will pick you. You would only do this if you knew that your partner was going to be chosen to do the town FS tomorrow. Therefore right now, as crazy and paranoid as it sounds, I think you and Podo could be scum together.

And therefore I will not let you two FS on the same day.

In theory, I'm fine with this. It does mean that one of us should probably FS tomorrow, though.

[podoboq]

The fact that you don't believe that bad sleep and timezones cause problems thoroughly irks me
Why would I lie about that shit in case you didn't notice my v/la ended today

I have no idea who or what this is aimed at.

[podoboq]

Yes, I agree with you, and I dont care who, as long as you both dont on the same day.

I am completely fine with that, then. I don't like telling town that neither me/Zyf nor you/Zyf can FS tomorrow, because it makes the chances of a Zyf FS tomorrow astronomically low, and it seems like it's just restricting towns options.

[podoboq]

The fact that you don't believe that bad sleep and timezones cause problems thoroughly irks me
Why would I lie about that shit in case you didn't notice my v/la ended today

I have no idea who or what this is aimed at.

Jj being completely paranoid of some elaborate plan unfolding with my nonexistant scum partner
Also to clarify you guys realize you're setting me up to be one of the last 3 fs-es

I townread you, so...
Also, if you don't do it tomorrow, that leaves you in the final five.

[podoboq]

The fact that you don't believe that bad sleep and timezones cause problems thoroughly irks me
Why would I lie about that shit in case you didn't notice my v/la ended today

I have no idea who or what this is aimed at.

Jj being completely paranoid of some elaborate plan unfolding with my nonexistant scum partner
Also to clarify you guys realize you're setting me up to be one of the last 3 fs-es

I townread you, so...
Also, if you don't do it tomorrow, that leaves you in the final five.

Except there's no way in fuck I'm letting you two do it on the same day
So that leaves me in the last 3 if I'm not paired with either of you

On a separate note I need to readjust to home timezone so 'night

You're right. This is part of the reason that I really don't like what JavaJoe is saying about you being a potential scum partner of either of the two biggest townreads (as far as I can tell) yet to FS.

[podoboq]

If someone is so scummy that everyone is pretty much sure they're scum, they should go ninth if scum tell the truth every day (being the only slot where they can't potentially FS alongside a scumbuddy) or be one of the confirmation FSes after scum lie (at least if we're using two confirmations upon seeing contradictory FS results).

Of course, only one person can go ninth, which is why we're trying to force likely scum to FS while we still have likely townies for them to FS alongside

Alright, so this is full of bad. If someone is so scummy that everyone is pretty much sure they're scum, they should be FSing alongside someone we're certain is town. If they go ninth, alone, we'd just have to ignore them. If they're a confirmation alongside a contradicting group of two, again, we'd have to ignore them. The last line is all that really matters. One of the scummiest players per day is forced to waste their FS. Get the scummiest players out of the way before they can cause any damage.

[podoboq]

If someone goes ninth, alone, on D5, then we send 4 scummy players the other way, and 4 townish players the way they claim is safe. This leads to a guaranteed town win if they lie, and a 71/72 town win if they don't lie.

The great thing about this is that it allows us to get a useful FS result even unconfirmed from scum; they're forced to tell the truth because to lie would lose them the game.

I'm smelling what you're stepping in.

[podoboq]

That trick's already been posted in-thread earlier, so there's no harm in posting it again.

Didn't see it. I'll be doing a bit of a reread while we're waiting for day two.

[podoboq]

I don't think there's much else we're waiting for...
VOTE: Nolynch

I would like to provide some thoughts on the strategy, or at least plot it out for myself, but this is currently an ungodly hour for me to be awake and my ability to focus on it right now is really low.

[podoboq]

n1 cop. BBmolla's slot is town.

[podoboq]

@podo
Do you agree that fs players who did not lie can always be trusted as town?

No, not at all. Especially if you set that up as a rule, it's obvious how it will blow up in your face.

[podoboq]

@podo
Do you agree that fs players who did not lie can always be trusted as town?

No, not at all. Especially if you set that up as a rule, it's obvious how it will blow up in your face.

...?
Didn't we go through the fact that scum must lie to win?

Not if you trust them completely for lying.

[podoboq]

Not if you trust them completely for telling the truth*

[podoboq]

Well y'see
I post reads unlike all of you people
So like, when podo picked algebra i had no idea podo hated him for lurking
But i'm pretty transparent with my confidence in which the scumpool is {lucky, edo, algebra} in that order

My whole game in mafia as scum and town is billed on transparency. It's a great way to gain trust, and information. This game, however, is named "Mislead." Town needs to be somewhat unpredictable so that scum can't use them as a tool to their advantage. Part of the reason I picked algebra is that nobody would have predicted it, so if CFJ and Algebra were scum together, they wouldn't have been prepared for me to pick him.

[podoboq]

Wow, we cannot read today.

Algebra is simply saying that between the two people we choose, the townier player is the one who uses FS, and the scummier one elects a player. It's not complicated, guys.

[podoboq]

Alright, so Something_Smart is obv town. Voting him and probably Edosurist.

Yeah, Something_Smart and Edosurist.

[podoboq]

And you are right, the same person shouldn't choose, which is why podo will be using his fs today most likely instead of choosing.

But I did such a good job last time :3

No, I'm fine with this. You shouldn't consolidate that much power in anyone except conftown. I'm ready to FS when we're sure that I'm the one doing it.

[podoboq]

@Ser FakeGod

: I would like to

Future Sight

.

[podoboq]

B is safe

[podoboq]

@Infinity, @podo: Please check to ensure you've reported the right path, as a typo here would be kind-of terrible.

Yup, B is good.

[podoboq]

I kind of want to not try to influence stuff here, especially since Zyf already declared FS. I think town has this wrapped up. If you need me, I'll be around.

No voting anybody until we have a conf scum. I'd be voting Infinity right now, because he's confscum to me now, but I don't want to set that precedent.

[podoboq]

(Also, podo's sig is awesome )

<3

[podoboq]

I guess there is't much more to talk about here until the flips. Who's excited? I'm excited.

Could we get complete radio silence until Zyf and Lucky both claim? I feel like that's the best chance we get to not give info to scum here.

[podoboq]

VOTE: Infinity
Three players claim path B is safe, so infinity is confirmed scum, and we can follow path B tonight. Resume discussion in the morn.

[podoboq]

2 Mafia Players vs 7 Town Players

Reminder for everyone. Just hard ignore Infinity, and vote him.

[podoboq]

Ok. I've got some ideas. Not gamebreaking or anything, but I'd like to wait till the second round of path-flips today

P-EDIT: Apparently I missed an entire page or something. Lemme actually catch up

We are moving to day end. Infinity is confirmed scum, and Path B is confirmed correct path.

Please vote there.

[podoboq]

I'm pretty sure quote manipulation breaks a site rule or is atleast frowned upon as a tactic to win.

Not explicitly forbidden.

Definitely frowned upon.

[podoboq]

So are we picking our two towniest or our two scummiest? If people don't agree, I'm gonna just trust what CFJ is deciding.

[podoboq]

@podoboq: There are two decisions: a) who the towniest player is who still has an FS left (equivalent to choosing the two scummiest), and b) how much we want to mitigate against that (towniest) player being scum.

a) hasn't been fully decided yet. For b), there's been a suggestion by Edos which would give us a 100% win if the player in question is town, and 100% loss if they're scum.

The alternative suggestions that have been made for b) give us at least 50% chance of winning no matter what, at the cost of allowing a specific one of the two FSers a 25% chance of winning if they're scum.

I'd appreciate your input into both decisions.

I've been skimming, so I have the gist of it. My heart is against gambling the entire game on one player being town. I think algebra is lurkscum here, but not gonna gamble it.

If I'm making the decision, we pick our scummiest two players, and have them FS. Not gonna spell out what we do tomorrow. That's how I want to resolve today. If the two answers differ, I know how I'd like to resolve that, but I don't want to out that yet.

[podoboq]

@podoboq: There are two decisions: a) who the towniest player is who still has an FS left (equivalent to choosing the two scummiest), and b) how much we want to mitigate against that (towniest) player being scum.

a) hasn't been fully decided yet. For b), there's been a suggestion by Edos which would give us a 100% win if the player in question is town, and 100% loss if they're scum.

The alternative suggestions that have been made for b) give us at least 50% chance of winning no matter what, at the cost of allowing a specific one of the two FSers a 25% chance of winning if they're scum.

I'd appreciate your input into both decisions.

I've been skimming, so I have the gist of it. My heart is against gambling the entire game on one player being town. I think algebra is lurkscum here, but not gonna gamble it.

If I'm making the decision, we pick our scummiest two players, and have them FS. Not gonna spell out what we do tomorrow. That's how I want to resolve today. If the two answers differ, I know how I'd like to resolve that, but I don't want to out that yet.

Even if that person is JJ?

JJ isn't actually my biggest townread of the three who haven't FSed

[podoboq]

Hmm, can someone set out the case for me for SS as scum?

@Zyf

: You claimed SS is scum but didn't really give details. Care to elaborate?

Although my mind is set on a), I'm still trying to decide on b), and that depends a lot on my reads on all three FSers, not just on one.

@podoboq: The way we resolve an FS disagreement today actually depends on what we do tomorrow. This is because if we have to subject ourself to a chance of losing if someone is scum, we want to put the same person in that position repeatedly (so that we don't subject ourself to the risk of someone being scum multiple times; if the player in question is scum, they can only take advantage of one of the multiple opportunities we give them). In other words, if player X being scum can give us a 25% chance of losing today, there's no harm in giving a hypo-scum player X a 25% chance of causing us to lose tomorrow.

The simplest possibility, though, is to get the remaining player to tiebreak, which gives town an 87.5% chance of winning regardless of who the scum is.

I've got a plan. It involves the two scummiest players FSing today. If people are deadset on having our towniest FS today, then I can spell out my plan, but I'm pretty confident that my plan is good, and it needs to happen organically to work.

[podoboq]

What chance does it have of winning if the remaining FSer is in fact scum? I can understand if you want to keep details secret (although I'm not sure how beneficial that would be at this point), but that sort of stat is useful in terms of evaluating it against the other plans.

If we save scum to FS tomorrow, then it has the same probability of winning as any other situation in which scum is saved for tomorrow.

My plan has exactly the same EV as two players FSing today, and one tomorrow, except if scum misplays, we get a huge advantage. I don't want to spell it out, because I want that advantage.

[podoboq]

I want scum to FS today, because we get more value out of scum FSing today than we do tomorrow. We want them to make their mistake sooner rather than later.

[podoboq]

Hmm…

@podoboq: What's your opinion on the idea of having the towniest and scummiest remaining FSers FS today, and having the one in the middle FS tomorrow?

I don't really care much, as long as two people FS today. Between the three in the middle, I think they're all relatively even.

How about we all select which two players we want to FS, regardless of WHY we want those players to FS? The three on the block can select themselves. The two players with the most votes are elected.

[podoboq]

Hmm…

@podoboq: What's your opinion on the idea of having the towniest and scummiest remaining FSers FS today, and having the one in the middle FS tomorrow?

I don't really care much, as long as two people FS today. Between the three in the middle, I think they're all relatively even.

How about we all select which two players we want to FS, regardless of WHY we want those players to FS? The three on the block can select themselves. The two players with the most votes are elected.

Or for simplicity, we vote to elect the person who FSes tomorrow, and the two players with the fewest votes go today.

[podoboq]

Also, I'm very suspicious of any plan for tomorrow that doesn't care about whether the FSer is scum or not. This is because a plan that doesn't care if an FSer is scum is equivalent either to a plan that doesn't use the FS at all, or a plan that hedges so much against a scum FS that scum are forced to tell the truth. In either case, I don't see town win rate going above 75%.

I want scum to FS today. That's why I want to pick the two scummiest players to FS today. I think all three being town is pretty likely here.

I thought our win rate was automatically at a minimum 87.5% right now. Three coin flips. Plus when we get down to splitting people down paths, we can confirm scum by assigning people to paths. If someone doesn't go down their assigned path, they're confscum. That increases our win percentage as well, because it makes the likelihood of end gaming significantly lower as well.

[podoboq]

Could people let me know whether they approve or disapprove of it?

I trust you, boo.

[podoboq]

OK, is it over now? Can I talk?

Spoiler:

OH MY GOD I'M SO SORRY TOWN

I meant to send in my path, and I think I was doing it from mobile and just misclicked and didn't send it. I checked in the thread at least a dozen times that night waiting for it to start back up, and my heart was crushed when I was announced dead.

I'm glad we won anyway. CfJ, you are MVP all day every day. <3


Fun idea for a game. With a few tweaks, I'd love to play it again.

[podoboq]

CFJ, I'd like to prein also if my reputation hasn't been tarnished by my PM slip up.