Micro 643: Desperation Day (Game Over)

[Mas y Menos]

I don't like this post.

What do you not like about it Key?

~Menos

[Gamma Emerald]

Thinking on it, we should play normally. We hit scum Days 1 or 2, we have an extra day to get information. If we mislynch both days, we have an objective 40% chance to win.

[keyenpeydee]

I don't like this post.

What do you not like about it Key?

~Menos

First of all, On that post, You said we should just skip D1 and D2 because we auto win when we lynched a Mafia D3. So how do we lynch scum if we don't have any evidences and info?

NL-ing on D1 and D2 is never a good choice. There's still a chance that if we lynched a mafia D1 or D2, We can use some things that he town read the most, Which have a possibility it's his scum buddy.

For me, you are the most scummy here and I don't get your point.

VOTE: Mas y Menos

[Mas y Menos]

I don't like this post.

What do you not like about it Key?

~Menos

First of all, On that post, You said we should just skip D1 and D2 because we auto win when we lynched a Mafia D3. So how do we lynch scum if we don't have any evidences and info?

NL-ing on D1 and D2 is never a good choice. There's still a chance that if we lynched a mafia D1 or D2, We can use some things that he town read the most, Which have a possibility it's his scum buddy.

For me, you are the most scummy here and I don't get your point.

VOTE: Mas y Menos

My point was that mislynching on day 1 is likely cause we are at zero information vantage point.
We maybe lynch scum day 2 but then its hard to lynch them on day 3 because now theres only one.

~Menos

[keyenpeydee]

Yes, we maybe mislynched someone but we can use the mislynched person's scum reads and may base it on suspecting someone.

[Mas y Menos]

Like the chance of scum lynch on day 1 is objectively low.
A player on my homesite once did an analysis of lynches day 1, it hit scum in 5% of the total games.
And games where the town no lynched on day 1 they had an 20% higher chance of winning then if they did lynch day 1.

Sometimes day 1 lynch is just not optimal.

~Menos

[Gamma Emerald]

Like the chance of scum lynch on day 1 is objectively low.
A player on my homesite once did an analysis of lynches day 1, it hit scum in 5% of the total games.
And games where the town no lynched on day 1 they had an 20% higher chance of winning then if they did lynch day 1.

Sometimes day 1 lynch is just not optimal.

~Menos

Okay but one thing: NEVER VOTE ABSTAIN DAY 1. You deprive the town of valuable information going forward by end the day early.

[keyenpeydee]

Like the chance of scum lynch on day 1 is objectively low.
A player on my homesite once did an analysis of lynches day 1, it hit scum in 5% of the total games.
And games where the town no lynched on day 1 they had an 20% higher chance of winning then if they did lynch day 1.

Sometimes day 1 lynch is just not optimal.

~Menos

Yeah I know. Do you seriously get my point tho?

[xyzzy]

I'm not sure whether I did this math completely correctly (the first set of numbers add up to 1.002, which might be a rounding error, or it might be that I missed something???? not sure) but the numbers mostly match the numbers the original thread for this setup had, which maybe I just should've checked there first,

but whatever

anyway here's stats for town odds if we lynch d1 and d2 vs no lynch d1 and d2. I didn't check the numbers for if we only lynch one of those days because I'm pretty sure the general rule that town odds are better with an even number of players still applies with how d3 works:

7/9*5/7*3/5 = .333 (no scum ever lynched, scum win)
7/9*2/7*4/5*2/3 = .119 (scum lynched d1 or d2, scum win) (2 ways this can happen)
7/9*5/7*2/5 = .222 (no scum lynched d1 or d2, scum lynched d3, town win)
7/9*2/7*3/5*2/3 = .089 (scum lynched d1 or d2, town lynched d3, scum lynched d4, town win) (2 ways this can happen)
2/9*1/7 = .032 (scum lynched d1 and d2, town win)

43.1% chance of town win if we lynch day 1 and day 2

5/7*3/5 = .429 (town lynched d3 and d4, scum win)
5/7*2/5*2/3 = .190 (town lynched d3, scum lynched d4, town lynched d5, scum win)
5/7*2/5*1/3 = .095 (town lynched d3, scum lynched d4 and d5, town win)
2/7 = .286 (scum lynched d3, town win)

38.1% chance of town win if we no lynch day 1 and day 2

so it's objectively worse to no lynch

also I don't trust your home site as a good source of info because that's entirely dependent upon the site meta. does your home site focus on mostly setups with lots of power roles, for instance? if so, those numbers are completely irrelevant to this game.

[rb]

Key is probably town.

[rb]

Also I play the game by finding and lynching scum, everything else is arbitrary and boring and shit imo. I'm not playing gimmicks.

[Mas y Menos]

Also I play the game by finding and lynching scum, everything else is arbitrary and boring and shit imo. I'm not playing gimmicks.

Gimmicks are more fun.

Aside: Me and other half of the hydra had a fight over who should be called "Menos" apparently he thinks he should be called that.
WHatever, I am the Mas half now.

All previous posts were made by me.

~Mas Y

[xyzzy]

that being said I think it would be wise to lynch our second-highest scum suspect d2. that's kind of a gimmick, but it's one that still focuses on having a worthwhile lynch d2 while giving us an ideal d3

[Mas y Menos]

also I don't trust your home site as a good source of info because that's entirely dependent upon the site meta. does your home site focus on mostly setups with lots of power roles, for instance? if so, those numbers are completely irrelevant to this game.

Likewise, I dont trust your math at all because it hasn't been tested by practical application.
Theory math sucks.

~Mas Y

[rb]

Gimmicks are bad and we're not doing it.

[Mas y Menos]

Gimmicks are bad and we're not doing it.

Yes we are.

~Mas Y

[xyzzy]

also the only bad part about lynching our second highest scum d2 I can think of is that it lets scum plan ahead for who is likely to be lynched d3 more than what is totally optimal, but I think the payoff is worth it

[rb]

Yeah I can do that one.

[rb]

Gimmicks are bad and we're not doing it.

Yes we are.

~Mas Y

Lynch this scum already.

[Mas y Menos]

I prefer my plan.

My plans are great

~Mas Y

[Gamma Emerald]

Also I play the game by finding and lynching scum, everything else is arbitrary and boring and shit imo. I'm not playing gimmicks.

Gimmicks are more fun.

Aside: Me and other half of the hydra had a fight over who should be called "Menos" apparently he thinks he should be called that.
WHatever, I am the Mas half now.

All previous posts were made by me.

~Mas Y

Seems easy: McMenno is Menos.

[rb]

I'm going to bed. I hope Mas is dead by the time I wake up.

[Mas y Menos]

I'm going to bed. I hope Mas is dead by the time I wake up.

That makes no sense.

~Mas Y

[xyzzy]

also I don't trust your home site as a good source of info because that's entirely dependent upon the site meta. does your home site focus on mostly setups with lots of power roles, for instance? if so, those numbers are completely irrelevant to this game.

Likewise, I dont trust your math at all because it hasn't been tested by practical application.
Theory math sucks.

~Mas Y

the mathematical probability of certain events happening is literally half of the entire basis on which the balance of mafia games is based (the other half is that town is, on average, not that good). you're arguing that town should do something that is objectively not in their best interest when you have direct evidence for why that's the case right in front of you

VOTE: Mas y Menos

[Mas y Menos]

the mathematical probability of certain events happening is literally half of the entire basis on which the balance of mafia games is based (the other half is that town is, on average, not that good). you're arguing that town should do something that is objectively not in their best interest when you have direct evidence for why that's the case right in front of you

Thats not direct evidence dipshit thats fucking theoritical math.

~Mas Y