Mini Normal 1843 - Endgame

[Hoopla]

If you're town, you should.

[Hoopla]

By the way, I think refusing to claim at L-1 with intent is anti-town. I don't think continuing to demand that claim is anti-town.

In fact, I'd argue that you showing up and suggesting that he could be town, implicitly trying to let him off is anti-town. Because by doing that, you are undermining the mechanics through which we get claims. You are essentially creating an environment where the next person we pressure can get out of a lynch by refusing to claim.

I mean, it's annoying that he hasn't fully claimed yet, and I still want him to full claim, but getting more annoyed and doing an even more antitown thing in hammering him (or requesting hammers) doesn't achieve anything.

The irony of the situation is him doing this has revealed (in my eyes) that he's actually prob-town, and thus despite the act of doing an antitown thing, he has probably provided a net positive to the town. I don't like the way it has come about, and don't want him to keep stalling, but it has happened. You're letting your ire of the situation overlook the silver lining here and seeing the town tell for what it is.

[Hoopla]

Actually, now that I think about it...

I think Cloud is prob-town enough to the point where I don't care if he claims or not, since I don't want to lynch him any more. Just as long as it happens before or during massclaim -- whenever he feels it's best.

[Hoopla]

BlackVoid. He's pretty likely town and we're not lynching him today regardless of what he claims. So he might as well not fullclaim until massclaim or whenever he feels like it.

[Hoopla]

If you want to look anywhere else, state intent to hammer and actually get his claim.

What's your actual read of Cloud's alignment right now?

[Hoopla]

Hammer him and I'll tell you.

You either know he's town or think he's prob-town like I do. Admit it.

[Hoopla]

Dude, Cloud already knows you think he's town and this is merely pressure to get him to claim. Let it go and don't sink to his level.

[Hoopla]

My read is that either he's scum and stalling, or he's town and you are trying to frustrate me by not getting his claim in an expedient fashion so that I keep pushing him harder and harder until I finally get a town lynched after putting in way too much effort.

If you are town here, you'd be trying to make the process simpler, not throw additional wrenches into the mix.

What do you think of my logic in 2387? I want you to pick apart my argument and tell me why he doesn't do this as town more often.

[Hoopla]

You are being very anti-town right now. He

literally

said that if there was actual intent, he would claim. All you had to do was confirm that you had actual intent and we would have moved on but then you decided to "change your mind" and actually consider letting him get off without claiming at all.

Now you are creating even more of a distraction from the main issue by claiming I'm being anti-town as well.

The situation has changed.

He is probably town and no longer a lynch candidate. As such, he doesn't need to claim. You even think he's town.

[Hoopla]

He is a lynch candidate. Nothing has changed. If he doesn't claim, there is nobody else that I'll consider for a lynch.

Well, I'm going to leave the conversation there since we are at an impasse. Others on the Cloud wagon can chime in. But I hope they see the light like I do and that his play makes way more sense as town.

[Hoopla]

But cloud if you genuinely softed your role like you said than scum probably already know it.

Yes, but that involves reading a lot of Cloud's posts again, and would scum really want to do that?

I tried to figure it out after he mentioned it and gave up pretty quickly.

[Hoopla]

Raskol, what's your read of Cloud right now?

[Hoopla]

Hoopla has twice undermined the pro-town environment of this game. First she started encouraging this apples/oranges dichotomy. For a functioning town, you need people working together, not divided into their own camps because it makes it harder to get a lynch. Second, she bailed on stating intent to hammer after Cloud said he would claim if she did.

We shouldn't be having a conversation with people at L-1 explaining to them the benefits and pitfalls of claiming. By not making the process pretty much automatic, we created several pages of clutter and nonsense back and forth.

The original purpose of Cloud claiming was because he was suspicious enough to lynch. I (and I hope others see it too) now realise he's highly likely town, so there's no point continuing the claiming process if there's no intention to lynch there any more.

You're just frustrated (or ignoring) that the way this information came to light was through Cloud's antitown behaviour.

[Hoopla]

BV; I do believe your town, and your anger at the situation has reinforced my town read on you, as I feel like it's genuine town anger and frustration. But you seem to be under the impression that I have the power to make him claim. It didn't work when he was at L-1 for ages and he has also ignored intent declarations. Do you really think any threats I make now (especially after he knows I think he's town) are going to convince him to claim?

It really feels like you're spiralling towards sunk cost fallacy territory and if you thought about it and tried to read him, you'd realise he's probably town. And if you do believe he's town, him full claiming doesn't really matter right now.

[Hoopla]

I believe the claim. I don't think someone so new to MS culture claims this particular role and strings it out this way (unless he was masterfully coached by Sotty, but lets not get paranoid here). I can kinda see why he didn't want to fullclaim, but I agree it was better to just tell us.

If mafia has roleblock my win condition would be to ml BV regardless of alignement, this is quite funny

The good news is in the last 31 Mason games there have only been 5 Mafia Roleblockers. Against masons, mods tend to give scum stuff like Encryptors, Role Cops, random roles like Tracker/Neighbouriser or quite often nothing at all.

[Hoopla]

Alright, listen up APPLES

I'm a proud apple through and through but BV is pretty obviously town and I can't tow the party line on this one. Come on now!

[Hoopla]

Eh, I feel like I'm starting to prefer goodmorning over Rask as my second choice (if we can't lynch Creature) just by the way he is using PoE.

I think I might have to move to my own fruit team. Mangos are in season atm, right?

[Hoopla]

This game is following the blueprint of the previous two days where we hit a stalemate on wagons and end up waiting until the last couple of days to frantically organise something. Although, it worked yesterday in lynching Sotty.

I feel like most of my lynch candidates have dropped some AtE

"well, it doesn't matter if I'm lynched"

contentedness; Maria's done it, goodmorning has volunteered herself as tribute, Rask has been relentless in including situations where he gets lynched. Hell, even I did it yesterday. It's clear these tells aren't as reliable as they have once been (I've often found these tells to be pretty town looking in the past), and I don't know which ones to discount and which ones to consider valid. The fact that everyone is doing it makes me want to throw the baby out with the bathwater and just call them all null.

Of everyone's I think I find gm's least convincing because it's happened after everyone else's and she's witnessed firsthand in this game how the players perceive these sort of things. Rask should have been reasonably comfortable that including himself in PoE at times wouldn't actually lead to his lynch, so I can't give credit to that. Maria's seems most sincere, and I haven't witnessed similar things from Creature yet.

Soooo, I guess in saying all that, I'm still pro-Creature and am waiting for compromise there, otherwise I will compromise on either gm or Rask. Still thinking about BV's points on Rask.

[Hoopla]

Hey Hoopla, what's your opinion on meta?

it's okay in certain situations where applied correctly. most people don't and come to lazy conclusions by just looking for the things they want to see, though.

why do you ask, young creature?

[Hoopla]

Okay, apparently I can't use meta right now as scum probably started to imitate their town selves rn.

those darn scumbags!

[Hoopla]

Whoever is scum is playing very well in my opinion. It's getting to the point where most of the players have made a lot of convincing posts, or situations have transpired where I'm questioning why they'd do that as scum. It's hard to really know what is meaningful information right now.

Thinking about it more, I am starting to get concerned that the only support I can get for Creature seems to be from fellow Apples, as they may just be doing that for survivalist reasons as scum. The Cloud claim fiasco notwithstanding, BlackVoid has still been the most reasonable player in the game, and his recent posts about Rask have summarised a feeling about him I've also had for a while, where Rask's actions seem to have knowledge that Sotty is scum and he is making sure he is preemptively positioning himself well in his actions/stances/attacks in case she flips.

I think townies occasionally will accidentally find themselves in incriminating interactions with scum who end up flipping (it's hard to not when you don't know who is scum), but you can exonerate them based on the thought that they probably didn't know that player would ultimately flip scum. I think the lack of these situations from Rask paints a picture of a well calculated and if I'm honest, brilliant exhibition of positional scumplay, but like BV says, there is an undertone of implicit knowledge that Sotty is scum.

This isn't in slamdunk territory for me, but I find it more believable that Rask got himself into pretty good positions as scum over say, goodmorning getting herself into pretty bad looking positions upon a Sotty flip. I think she is savvy enough to avoid those as scum, and I think Rask is good enough to be scum here.

I'm going to support this vote with BV since we're nearing my favourite time of day: compromise time!

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Raskolnikov

[Hoopla]

How long were you preparing that post hoopla?

Probably took 15-20 minutes? Dunno.

Why's that?

[Hoopla]

Everyone left...

I'm here-ish, still thinking...

I feel like every time I lock down and solidify my reads and opinions on the game, I immediately get convinced by something else and have to start over.

BV triggers me because the bulk of his read is on theorycrafting and speculation I can't disprove or even engage with and he sets up actions as bad or scum-motivated without putting much thought into the alternative or counterpoint in each specific instance.

The same can be said about your Creature read. That is an unarguable meta read that we can't engage you with.

[Hoopla]

Yeah, but unless you think creature's scum and I'm scum you should probably trust me on it.

Do you have a habit of clearing people based on meta?

[Hoopla]

Well you CAN still argue against it if you make a convincing case for why creature's scum. But I haven't heard a solid argument beyond "eeeh inactivity ehh [something stylistic]".

That's the problem, I can't. It's largely a PoE-everyone-else-has-better-reasons-to-be-town thing, so it isn't particularly strong or relevant to Creature specifically, so I don't have a leg to stand on re: arguing Creature's alignment based on his play. I think my best point was his lack of commenting on the Sotty wagon, which had 4 votes at the time he logged off and went to bed -- so it's not like he slept through all of it. And, to be honest, it doesn't really matter if he did. If I find everyone else's interactions with Sotty to appear genuine, then no interaction is scummy by default.

[Hoopla]

I mean, you are right that if you're town, this opinion about Creature should hold more weight, but then it means (from my perspective) that goodmorning and Maria are both scum, with neither or them bothering to distance/bus Sotty when she was going down. I feel like both being scum and hard-defending/trying to counterwagon while Sotty is being lynched seems like a strange position for them to both take. I don't see this team as likely.

I think you're more likely to be wrong about your Creature read or scum.

[Hoopla]

Hoopla if you think creature is scum, who do you think is his partner?

I think Creature works best with goodmorning (not sure why BV is eliminating this combo), and perhaps you? Although, I guess it is a little on the nose trying to clear him so brazenly.

[Hoopla]

Forget the team stuff for a moment.
Do you really as an individual read scumread creature over either of goodmorning or maria?

Roughly on par with goodmorning. I think Maria is townier than both of those two.

[Hoopla]

Well you should lynch goodmorning with me then. If your reads are creature > gm > me I don't understand your vote at all.

I think Creature, gm and you are all pretty close that I'm constantly reevaluating which one is more scummy, to the point where it's driving me crazy. So I'm sticking with my top town read until I think about it properly some more. Right now, I feel pretty easily influenced and don't think I make the best choices in such situations.

[Hoopla]

Apologies for missing the last day or so, life stuff etc.

I see I'm a candidate for the noose again. Unfortunately I haven't had the time or means to solve this game as well as I'd like and ultimately I'm still fine with lynching Rask, goodmorning or Creature and will support any of those wagons other than mine.

If I do die, massclaim needs to happen tomorrow, and since I will be confirmed town, refer to this post for massclaim order: Rask, Creature, goodmorning, Jack, BV.

Catching up again now...

[Hoopla]

I don't see how being equally fine lynching me or goodmorning makes any sense when you think about it.

why?

[Hoopla]

this apple on apple violence has to stop

[Hoopla]

I don't think goodmorning/Maria are a team due to both of them actively choosing not to bus Sotty when she was going down. When one scum defends or chainsaws, the other scum tends to counterbalance the other and not do the same thing (especially when it's a thing that obviously links you to that dying scum).

Rask's best partner is probably goodmorning with a chance of it being Creature. Creature/goodmorning work pretty fine as Creature's play when Sotty going down doesn't discount him. I still don't see Maria being scum as that likely, but her best partner is Rask, I think.

Regardless, I'd still lynch from the Rask/gm/Creature for the rest of the game once I'm gone and hope the scumteam is in there. But then again, the town has such polarised reads, I don't expect this to happen...

[Hoopla]

BV, I don't think we'd have the support for Creature? We tried that earlier in the day. I think we have a better shot of getting Rask or goodmorning lynched over myself...

[Hoopla]

Where were you when I was trying to lynch goodmorning again?

I don't know.

I probably wasn't thinking about partners as much as I am now, although I still haven't had the time to think about all the combos enough to make sweeping declarations either way. This game is brutal in the way it can swing in 24 hours and I feel like my wagon now has in part happened because I wasn't here to defend myself while it was occurring.

I will say that I am desperate enough to team up with you and target goodmorning at this point in time soooooo...

[Hoopla]

Rask, who is goodmorning's best partner and why?

[Hoopla]

yowza, it's happening!!!

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Creature

Do we have a fifth willing to vote? If so, lets get a claim.

[Hoopla]

If you dolts lynch creature I'm not saying a word tomorrow.

No offense, but nobody is as accurate at meta reads as you think you are. He has a good chance of flipping scum.

[Hoopla]

Hoopla scumread GM and me equally and thinks that's the most probably team but prefers me over GM for whatever reason.
GM counterwagoned onto creature when hoopla got run up yesterday and did some of the only casing/pushing she did in the entire game there.
Hoopla is saying she's willing to lynch GM and compromise on me a few minutes ago before starting onto creature instead.

PLEASE just see this somehow

i'm still willing to lynch goodmorning if Creature doesn't go ahead.

[Hoopla]

sooooo, we're not lynching Creature now? Still trying to understand how this ridiculous game is operating, so lets try this...

UNVOTE:
VOTE: goodmorning

[Hoopla]

wooo, a third mason! fascinating twist!

I didn't even know 3 masons could be a thing.

they are rare in 13p normal games (only have featured in 1758 and 1767)

In 1758, it was just three masons vs. an all goon team, and in 1767 the town also had an Ultimate Backup (which could inherit a mason role upon one dying) and scum had a Neapolitan (vanilla cop). So, based on that, I think Cloud's claim could go either way.

If any of Rask, goodmorning, Jack, Creature are a PR, they absolutely should counterclaim Cloud now, as I don't see town having two PR's with three masons. In the event of no CC, I'm still inclined to believe Cloud based on the way he claimed, the role he claimed (works well with mason setups), and believe scum have a Role Cop or Encryptor.

[Hoopla]

You see this is where you DON'T say the last part.

why? if scum want to fakeclaim and force a 50/50 for no reason, then all power to them.

[Hoopla]

still not following you, maria

[Hoopla]

Hoopla's scum and should be hammered.

i'm actually town friend, and if i am lynched, i am excited to see what angle you push tomorrow

[Hoopla]

So, I think scum were working under that assumption that I was a Mason, at least on D2. So, why the IAI kill?

When I asked why I wasn't dead yet at the beginning of today, I wasn't tooting my own horn about my towniness. It felt like I was the more obvious partner to Victor. I consistently townread him and had him as my top townread through D1. I as good as told GreyICE that I was coming around to him being town but if it's between Victor and him, I had to vote him. So, why IAI when I was the obvious Mason and Sotty7 knew it?

I think the IAI kill implies that they didn't know you were a Mason during D2 as you are a much better NK target than IAI. I think scum probably have a Role Cop and found IAI N1.

[Hoopla]

No, Sotty7 put me and Victor as her top townreads right next to each other. I doubt it's a co-incidence. I think she figured it out. She also put IAI down in her scumlist.

I think it's a coincidence. You were town based just on your play and Victor was a claimed Mason.

[Hoopla]

Also, if Cloud's claim is true and he still has a BG shot, tonight is shaping up for a delicious game of WIFOM with regards to actions.

[Hoopla]

I have a question for you Rask.

Are you more confident in your townread on Creature or your scumread on me?

[Hoopla]

I have a question for you Rask.

Are you more confident in your townread on Creature or your scumread on me?

answer the question raskie-pie

[Hoopla]

I have a question for you Rask.

Are you more confident in your townread on Creature or your scumread on me?

Creature has been a lazy fuck but I still think he has to be town.

I have to perform mental gymnastics to see any team outside of you now but MAYBE gm works with him but that's it. Maria doesn't, cloud doesn't, you don't really.

Good to know.

The fact you are so confident about me as scum (and wrong) means you can't be trusted about your equally confident read on Creature if/when I die. You're either scum or plain wrong imo.

TOWN, PLEASE IGNORE RASK'S META READ ON CREATURE WHEN I'M PUSHING UP DAISIES. I'M A SIMPLE TOWNIE AND THIS IS MY FINAL WISH!!!!

[Hoopla]

Cloud, you should a roll a 10-sided dice and protect BV ~70% of the time and arona ~30% of the time.

[Hoopla]

BV is the glue holding this town together. Get on his level.

[Hoopla]

The apples and oranges statement was a good statement because it was shockingly true

It's laughable that you of all people are casting doubt about the direction and leadership of our fine and honorable town captain, when your reads have been in the toilet all game.

[Hoopla]

How tf does that come off as a casting doubt post to you? Don't talk about my reads okay.
The apple orange thing is because everyone was so divided and BV was at the center of it

You were agreeing with Rask's wish for BV death, when he's the single-most important player in the game right now. Come on now.

[Hoopla]

I won't have a bad word be said about our glorious mason overlord.

[Hoopla]

I'm not trolling, just trying to relax and enjoy my last few days in this beautiful, but troubled town. I will have fond memories of it.

[Hoopla]

Eh, it seems the chips are falling my way and I will be a pretty heavily suspected candidate no matter if someone else is lynched today, so I accept my unfortunate fate.

Waking up today, I had the idea that the likeliest team was goodmorning/Creature. I agree with BV that Rask's mania during the last couple of days has been quite town and I might just be paranoid. If he's scum he's playing very well -- really, whoever is scum is playing well and I'm still unsure about the team. I still don't find Rask's meta read of Creature convincing and I think him being wrong about me today should show that his confidence in Creature doesn't mean it's right given he's equally confident about me being scum (and wrong).

I'll answer any questions while I'm here, but I don't think my reads will provide much more insight into who the team. I will say the town should follow and trust BV more, and I hope Cloud protects our masons well tonight!

[Hoopla]

tbh, I kinda agree with goodmorning that Jack should still be considered a suspect. There's been so much towntelling and manic energy within my scumpool that it has kept forcing me to reinvent me reads and flipflop to another scumteam within my pool, but nothing obvious has emerged. I don't really know why I haven't also been considering Jack - maybe because he's typically not here when the game is churning through the pages.

I feel like the main reason I'm clearing him is the unnecessary bus on Sotty, as he was the first vote down. I think given how how often we've seen wagons rise and fall, we actually can't assume that he necessarily thought it would go all the way, and if it did he'd look good anyway. He hasn't really towntelled other than that in any obvious behavioural way like all my other suspects, so I feel queasy clearing him also, but it's too late at this stage to do anything about, and I don't even know what the point is of bringing it up this late in the day.

I think BV should be careful in fully clearing him though.

By the way, since everyone except the Masons have claimed VT, Cloud is as good as confirmed town. I doubt that there would be just three masons and no other power role.

One of the two setups with three masons had no other town PR, so no, not confirmed based on setup spec. Prob-town based on play though!

[Hoopla]

Question for anyone:
Do you think Scum have a tracker (for some reason) or Scoty just outted a nv with jaack

I think scum have a Role Cop/Vanilla Cop. Her target of Jack could either be:

- Scum Role Copped/Vanilla Copped Jack and knew he was VT and thus a safe "went-nowhere" claim
- Scum knew there were masons and Sotty took a gamble that there's probs only 1-2 other town PR's and took a punt on Jack being VT
- Sotty claimed the track on her buddy Jack who backed it up. That's a brave thing to do as scum, as linking yourself in a wifomy way like that is scary.

[Hoopla]

I assume you think the first one is the most likely ye?

50/30/20

probably something like that

[Hoopla]

@Hoopla, I was townreading Jaack since D1 even before Sotty7 flipped. I felt that he has towntelled and the flip only added to that feeling. I see your point on Cloud but I agree he's town anyways so we're on the same page there. What do you think of GM's catchup? I thought there was too little evolution of reads and when the rest of us have been trying pretty hard to figure out what was going on and reconsidered reads several times, she's just happy to dish out age-old townreads with no intention of reconsidering them or seeing who she might be wrong about.

I simply don't think Jack has posted enough to warrant such universally townread status, no matter what he's done in those posts. In a game like this where everyone is towntelling, you can't discount the guy with 74 posts when the rest of the town has 200-400.

I'm not enthused by gm's catchup and I think her/Creature is probably my top pairing atm. I'm less sure about Rask as I was yesterday and don't even know who a good partner for him is. I don't think he posts so manically and frantically if Jack is his partner - what's the point when you know you probably have the game in the bag and can compromise onto so many wagons? Really, all of Rask's partners are pretty weird. Creature is a strong connection, goodmorning was a turbo-bus yesterday... I guess Maria makes the most sense with Rask, but even that's, eh. I think it's just Rask's playstyle I can see him doing something creative or awesome as scum and when I can't figure who it'd be without him in it, it makes me want to delve into the paranoia. It's why I'm considering Jack also.

I don't think Creature/Maria or goodmorning/Creature are a thing, so goodmorning/Creature is the only team that makes sense (and maybe Rask/Maria) without something really weird going on. Even now goodmorning wants Creature dead tho, soooo I don't know. When I flesh it out like this, I kinda see why people think I'm suspicious. There's just not that many good and obvious teams.

[Hoopla]

I don't think Creature/Maria

or goodmorning/Creature

are a thing, so goodmorning/Creature

typo in here lol. don't know what i was thinking there

[Hoopla]

Raskie, who's the team if I'm town? Is Jack any chance of being scum?

[Hoopla]

Note that as soon as BV became conftown and GM could no longer push there, I am suddenly back in the lynchpool. Incredible magic!

I'm pretty sure we're at Hoopla/GM with a creature dark horse possible, but unlikely.

VOTE: Hoopla

Back to L-2

Yes, that's how PoE works. When one person is ruled out, it typically upgrades your other suspects. You and Rask talking about us opening the lynch pool isn't scummy.

Having said that, I'll lynch goodmorning or Creature now if that's back on.

[Hoopla]

Hoopla is partially a form of bet hedging as she's the worst player I've had trying to rule out any associations for.

I still wanna know who you think is scum if I'm town.

[Hoopla]

well, it looks like that might be all she wrote.

the town solemn in their decision let out quiet sobs in their love and respect for ol' hoopla. it was a difficult decision, but it had to be done. rest in peace

[Hoopla]

oh, the humanity!

[Hoopla]

@Hoopla, if you are town, give us one last lynch list. You throw around a ton of teams but I'd like to see one clear ordered list starting from your top suspect to your least.

goodmorning/creature
-
rask/maria
-
-
rask/creature
-
jack/creature, jack/maria
jack/goodmorning, rask/goodmorning, maria/goodmorning, maria/creature
-
cloud teams

~~

can i die in peace now? none of this slow torture please!

also, last words: don't value rask's meta read on creature.

[Hoopla]

jack/rask below all the other jack teams.

[Hoopla]

ouch!

thanks for the game everyone, nice to play with you all!

[Hoopla]

This would have been a lot easier a decision if there was more than like 1 scum game in the past 3 years from her.

and the preemptive excuses begin

[Hoopla]

Well played mafia!

Was a mostly fun game with occasional patches of apathy for me. I thought BlackVoid played very well and Sotty left her scum partners in better positions when she died, which is always the goal if you have to die as scum. I think when you end up talking yourself into conspiracy theories like "well, all the evidence suggests he's town, but he's probably good enough to fake it" like I did with Raskol, you know they're a good player. Well done raskie!

I thought the setup was fine, and within the realm of balance (though I generally prefer something with a bit more variety). The fact that of the two other 3-mason setups, that there was an identical 3-masons/3-goons setup means Cloud never should have been cleared in LYLO just based on historical data (especially when he wasn't killed at night). In saying that, I think his claim was very good and suited the setup well, and we were perhaps all underselling his ability to make a claim suitable to this site's meta, which is a large reason why he was pseudo-cleared. So, I think Cloud deserves a bit of credit for that and having the cajones to claim in the way he did by risking getting himself hammered before he got to make his good fakeclaim.

[Hoopla]

Nah not well done. My scum game is MEDIOCRE I have negative winrate and average scum winrate is like 60-70%
WHERE IS THE PARANOIA COMING FROM

HOW DID I GET KNOWN AS A "OOOH SCARY BETTER LYNCH FOR HIS SCUMGAME" WITHOUT ACTUAL SCUM WINS WTF

Well, I've never seen you until now, so all I really had to go on was the quality of your play in this game. Usually when someone is convincing and creative as town they make good scum players also. Noted for next time!