Mini Normal 1874: Camping Trip Mafia (Game Over)

[BlackVoid]

Matt we can talk more post game but with fykus as the sure lynch today, an even number of players to start the day, and me being universally town read (0 votes received this game), the proper move would have been to try and play cat and mouse one more time with scum and try to get us an extra mislynch.

Guys fykus is scum. Scum not killing a claimed JKer two times now plus interactions between fykus and sick pretty much confirms it.

BV be careful of setup spec, I'm not ready to give Jupiter a town read based on that. Remember cloud kicker.

With that said I'm pretty sure Matt is going tonight so I'll hold the rest of my thoughts until day 4. If I do go, my final two concerns if/when fykus flips scum is senspan or Jupiter is prob the last scum

Okay, so I agree with you that interactions between sickofit and Fykus indeed look like partners. But your other points aren't very strong. Scum obviously wouldn't kill Fykus N1 when they still had a roleblocker and he was very lynchable. There was no kill N2 so it's possible Jupiter might have tried to make the kill and got blocked. He did tell Fykus not to roleblock him though so maybe he thought Fykus would listen to him?

I'm not sure how you are arguing that Jupiter and Fykus make sense as partners. That end-of-day seemed really genuine where Jupiter tells Fykus to limit his shot to three people and then specifically requests that he not be jailed. That didn't look orchestrated to me at all.

This situation is a little bit different from Cloudkicker's. 3 Masons make sense because it was a copy of an open setup. A tracker/backup tracker/Doc is too little power against a scum roleblocker so unless there's another PR, I have a hard time seeing both Fykus and Jupiter flipping scum here.

[BlackVoid]

Also, you don't read well. I said I suspect you are town so not sure why all the defensive FOS talk. I also suspect you are a weaker player and wish you'd trust stronger players like BV and myself when we suggest it is in towns best interest if you claim today. Unlike BV I am not in agreement that we send a bunch of votes your way to force you to claim.

If you want to be stubborn so be it. We'll lynch fykus who was a day 1 claimed JKer who scum chose not once but twice not to kill. Because he's scum. Sorry you can't see the obvious.

Anyway...

vote fykus

Why wouldn't you be willing to force a claim though? You cautioned me against the Cloudkicker scenario so if truly believed that him claiming was good for town, why not back up your words, run him up to L-1 and demand a claim. Again not sure why the fact that Fykus is still alive plays into your suspicion of him. I expected him to be alive no matter what his alignment and isn't really a major reason why I suspect him.

[BlackVoid]

Nice shade. Why don't you go back and see who was one of the biggest pushes of the sick wagon.

Yeah but all of it was day two like you admitted. You barely pushed sickofit day one. You were pushing Fykus all day and when Sickofit voted and unvoted him, you said that it looked like partner-y interactions. Sickofit didn't look like he was going to make it to endgame so I wouldn't discount you driving the lynch through for maximum cred. I recall you saying in Musical mafia that you've had some great wins as scum and this isn't something I'd put past someone of your caliber.

[BlackVoid]

PS JK is a perfect fake claim when your team has a RBer, which we now know scum had.

Except scum would want the person who actually is the RB'er to make the JK claim and the other scum would likely want to claim something else. If they had pre-game talk, I'm sure sick and Fykus would have agreed that Sick would claim JK and Fykus should claim something else.

[BlackVoid]

Why are you so sure you have saved town Jupiter from a NK target vs preventing scum Jupiter from making the kill?

This is obviously a Hail Mary attempt at saving fykus today.

Jupiter are you a bodyguard?

If IAI is scum, I could see this as wanting to drive home the Fykus lynch while also suspecting Jupiter in case both need to be lynched and Jupiter goes first. But that's just speculation on my part.

[BlackVoid]

But I don't believe Fykus' Jailkeeper claim either which is why I'm torn. Are they both scum, and is sick doing a god awful job at bussing his buddy? He's not even really bussing him. The night actions don't match up so one of them has to be lying for sure, and Sick should know this, but he's not doing anything about it. I don't buy that he didn't see Fykus' night action claim because he saw JupiterCrush's post which was on the same page right after BlackVoid, and Fykus were talking about his jailkeeping target. I don't understand.

Yeah one of them for sure is lying, likely both.

I'm going to give them each one more chance to speak up, and then I'll let the group know where my vote is going to land and why.

For now tho

unvote sick

6 hours until Fykus is prodded. If he doesn't produce something of substance, I am going to vote there. Once again, reasons.

You unvoted Sickofit and committed to voting Fykus instead. While I don't think that was entirely unreasonable as I wasn't sure myself which of the two I wanted lynched, it does seem odd that you had a preference for Fykus despite saying that both were lying. If Fykus hadn't quick-hammered sickofit, I don't think a Fykus lynch would have been out of the question.

[BlackVoid]

Looking at a Jupiter/IAI possibility, it still doesn't "click" for me. I could see it being plausible but IAI backing off of sickofit when he saw the soft-claim mirrored my own thoughts as I was reading through and that's a pretty hard reaction to fake. I do think Jailkeeper makes more sense as a town role than whatever Jupiter claimed (why does a mod even create a role like 1-shot rolecop, 1-shot doc, and 1-shot BP vest? Mods would want an elegant setup and that role just looks ridiculous). I think Jaack makes some good points about how Jupiter's play makes sense as scum but I'm still hung up on the fact that it would be really complicated to set it all up like he did. Jupiter's actions do make sense with the role he claimed and he would have had to pre-plan having this ridiculous role right from the moment he replaced in and play accordingly. Then there's the fact that Fykus has basically not been playing this game. He's been mega-lurking for a very, very long time. I've seen his newbie town-game. This isn't how he plays. He's active, he's passionate, he enjoys the game. This seems more like his own description of his scumgame. Even after considering everything, I think I still want Fykus on balance.

[BlackVoid]

Also, Fykus jailing Jupiter because he thought he was a PR was kinda silly if town. You want PRs to be able to use their PR and jailing prevents them from doing that. It would have been a much better hypothetical scenario if he just jailed elsewhere and let Jupiter use the PR. If scum caught that soft, they'd kill him but if not we get a useful result.

[JupiterCrush]

However if Fykus was town,

I think he'd do everything he can to nail one more mislynch

before he goes down and put his team in a better position.

slip?

[BlackVoid]

If Fykus was town, *Sickofit* would do everything he can to get that Fykus mislynch before going down.

[BlackVoid]

@Jupiter, are you an alt? You seem to have more experience at forum mafia than you seem to be letting on. I don't think someone who has only played face-to-face mafia would come in with the opinions and arguments that you are presenting.

[JupiterCrush]

nope, i played a bit of maf universe once but that was it and i don't like how fast the games go, by the time you finish one post there are like 6 more posts to catch up on.

so i'm not sure what the point in discussing associations pre-flip are imo, i think that the lynch is either myself, fykus, or matt, and right now I'm inclined to support a fykus lynch due to the points that BV made about sick/fykus interactions and the way the claim played out.

fykus provided his results prior to sick claiming, and sick didn't bother to contradict or push him then and there. there are two scenarios that i believe happened:

1. sick accidentally contradicting fykus and knew he was caught so he gave up and got lynched, didn't care if fykus was town because he didn't think he could convince town to lynch him

2. sick accidentally contradicted and didn't want to push against his partner.

anyway, i already stated that I believe in #1 over #2, but with matt's claim i'm sure 1 of the 2 are scum.

as for people bringing up the possibility that my claim as fake, that's understandable because of the way the situation played out, but i really was trying to get fykus to jail someone else because i thought mafia would hit the only 'claimed' pr out at the time.

when i saw myself on the list of jailing targets, i tried to indicate to him not to jail me, but since we had already hit hammer i didn't know when the thread would be closed so i softed hard.

i agree that BP is a pretty useless pr to have remaining so i was fine with dying, i figure if my doc was successful, nobody dies, but if mafia hit me that's also fine (i'd function kind of like a bodyguard in that respect).

when i saw the no death result, i thought my strategy had worked, but fykus claiming he jailed me made me really perplexed.

with that said, say i am the scum, why would i make the NK if fykus declared me as one of his potential targets and not have my partner do the kill instead? wouldn't that make more sense? even though i told the claimed jailer not to hit me, i still wouldn't run the risk of doing the kill myself.

So FMPOV there are only three scenarios that could have occurred to grant us our result today:

1. fykus jailed me, and matt + partner tried to kill me for softing a PR and mislynch fykus today

2. fykus lied about jailing me and tried to kill IAI, matt's protection was successful. (in this scenario, fykus would have had A LOT of explaining to do as to why he was still alive if matt claimed).

3. fykus lied about jailing and also did not execute a kill in order to push the story that he saved me to validate his fake claim.

with matt's claim, my town read on fykus faded so I'm willing to lynch him because matt could be the 4th pr.

with that said, if we lynch fykus and he flips jailer, matt has a lot of explaining to do if he is not dead tomorrow, and INB4 scum left me alive so town would mislynch me

[JupiterCrush]

tl;dr i think we lynch fykus today, see the flip before we discuss any further, the game is almost solved FMPOV because if fykus flips scum like i'm believing he will, then sensfan has to be the last scum, he's played so low key complaining about the game and never replacing out, he's play super lurky scum and contributed nothing to the game.

i'm inclined to believe fykus will flip scum also because of how he's literally dropped off the face of the planet rather than try to defend himself like i imagine a real town player would because perhaps he does not know what kind of lies he can create to look towny (because he is scum).

[BlackVoid]

say i am the scum, why would i make the NK if fykus declared me as one of his potential targets and not have my partner do the kill instead?

Well, that's basically the reason that I think IAI is the only likely partner for you.

[BlackVoid]

What's your username on mafia universe?

[SensFan]

Been a super busy weekend for me, but am off the next two days. Will catch up tomorrow.

[shannon]

Been a super busy weekend for me, but am off the next two days. Will catch up tomorrow.

Welcome back.

I want to see your thoughts on all the PR claims and your defense to the accusation that you are scum with Sick.

[BlackVoid]

That's bullshit. He was going to be prodded in 3 hours so he showed up just in time to prod-dodge. Busy weekend didn't stop him from posting elsewhere even after this game thread opened for D3.

[massive]

I'm on phone but you asked why we wouldn't lynch sick if Fykus flipped town, and it was just said again on this page: "Fykus lied / played badly" is a real thing you'd have to fight against. You can say "I'd've speedlynched sick" but it takes more than just you to do that.

Still want comp time.

[mattblackguy]

with matt's claim, my town read on fykus faded so I'm willing to lynch him because matt could be the 4th pr.

Can you explain your previous townread on Fykus for me?

[mattblackguy]

@Jupiter Also can you quote some of Fykus' posts that made you give him a townread before?

[mattblackguy]

@BV, Innocent is town. You're getting too paranoid

[mattblackguy]

@Jupiter, Why didn't you vote either Fykus, or Sick at the beginning of day 2? You said you role copped sick so you knew he was a roleblocker. Did you seriously think town had 5 PRs, and 2 of them were roleblockers?

[shannon]

I am taking a look at the VCs from D1 and D2 (and only the VCs, no posts), and what wagons popped up to counter Sick.

Here's what I have seen:

IAI started off the Sick wagon, D1 then abandoned it later in the day as it gained momentum. I took a cursory glance at D2 and he did the same thing there. This looks Bad, without knowing what the circumstance/context was.

Also: Players who voted Sick throughout Day 1: Two Face, Keyen, Matt, Lucca, Shannon

Players who never voted Sick:

Nadpool voted

Massive

, 2 Face,

Lucca

,

Fykus

, and Keyen
BV/LUV voted

Massive

and

Lucca

only
SSBM (now Jaack) voted

Massive

, Matt,

Fykus

,

Lucca

Notice how these three players never vote for each other and keep within a very similar pool of candidates? I think that's beyond the scope of coincidence, and might reflect one (or two) of those players trying to build a faux town block by keeping artificially close to the others.

Also: There was no attempt at a counter wagon on Sick on D2. According to the VCs, with the exception of me voting Matt, no one else voted anyone but Sick. Was Sick looking so bad that he couldn't be saved? Were all the counter-wagon options scum too?

Interestingly, neither Nadpool or BV(LUV then) voted Sick at all on D1, but they were both on his D2 wagon.

Sickofit1138 (6): mattblackguy, Nadpool, BlackVoid, shannon, JupiterCrush, Fykus

Not Voting (5): SensFan, Sickofit1138, ssbm_Kyouko, massive, I Am Innocent

I know what the VCA is telling me, but does it marry up with what the claims and play have said? Hopefully someone will answer that question overnight while I sleep, it's almost midnight so time for bed x

[SensFan]

Page 32:

we have another person left to lynch and I think that person should be sensfan, he's played really obvious scum this game and we should get rid of him because he's been completely useless and impossible to read

VOTE: sensfan

I can't both be very obvious Scum and completely impossible to read.

--

I don't like all the stupid WIFOM games Jupiter is playing about claiming. Softclaiming at the end of a day is really bad, refusing to commit the next day is worse.

--

Also, I am most likely going to be able to validate my claim as town by end game, so while it sounds scummy to say, please don't waste your time fosing my slot because it's actually a complete waste of time.

Terrible. "Don't bother suspecting me because eventually I'll be cleared."

--

Yup, agree with BV. The longer Jupiter stalls a claim the less I believe it.