In post 494, nydushermain wrote:I think that's an interesting statement because with Lycan, you said that you don't think he genuinely believes in his Hiraki push which is why he's scum (maybe this is what you're saying? I'm running on low sleep) but with TLH, you say you KNOW for a fact that they are pushing Hiraki for something that town!TLH would know isn't alignment indicative. You're putting a feeling/tone read to call Lycan scum higher than a logic based scum read on TLH? I feel like you should have things flipped with TLH being scummier than Lycan for pushing on Hiraki if the reasons you've stated are indeed the reasons for scumreading Lycan. That being said, little sleep so I could've misinterpreted something or misread somewhere.
I see what you're saying here but I think invented scumreads are more likely to have no real belief behind them than a logical belief that doesn't hold up to scrutiny. Sometimes town might do something TLH is doing and push something NAI because they think it applies in this scenario or something, but town rarely (if ever) has a late game scumread that's totally surface level and barely explained.
TLH's response hasn't been so great though.
Also that Tier replace out makes him lock-town IMO. No reason a scum!Tier would feel the need to replace, I think.
In the game we were playing before, he suffered from a concussion and his activity dropped a lot. Could be health related.
In post 500, Lycanfire wrote:What do you think of Hiraki/TLH interactions Nydus?
I don't honestly think much of it at all. I mean, I can say that I think it's not super likely for them to be together because of the EoD vote from one of them onto the other when we were trying to scramble and try to find someone we could agreeable lynch but even then... I don't think it really rules them out completely. Dunno.
@Mod can we get a deadline pause while we wait for a Tier replacement
Lycan I'd lynch TLH if you flip town, I think
"I think I no longer believe in monsters as faces in the floor or feral infants or vampires or whatever. I think at seventeen now I believe the only real monsters might be the type of liar where there's simply no way to tell. The ones who give nothing away"
@Mod can we get a deadline pause while we wait for a Tier replacement
Lycan I'd lynch TLH if you flip town, I think
A monkey appears in the thread and rips off TLH's head. He flips scum. Who do you want to lynch?
In post 503, nydushermain wrote:I don't honestly think much of it at all. I mean, I can say that I think it's not super likely for them to be together because of the EoD vote from one of them onto the other when we were trying to scramble and try to find someone we could agreeable lynch but even then... I don't think it really rules them out completely. Dunno.
They both made similar posts in 486/488 yet they're cross scumreading each other. Are those posts furthering their reads on one another?
Okay so
I'm vanilla town
I can vote for as many people as i want
So what if i do it, since i don't have any reads yet VOTE: Hiraki VOTE: Towns Last Hope VOTE: Lycanfire VOTE: GuiltyLion VOTE: Not_Mafia VOTE: Martha Zolanski VOTE: Pepchoninga nydushermain
In post 37, nydushermain wrote:So far, according to the wiki, the setup is 2-4 in terms of town wins to scum wins. That's pretty low... Maybe it's just because it's a low sample size but I think if it's representative, it probably shows town reliance on active PRs.
Yeah i agree
Last time i played this set up it ended up at scum win
However the kills going as 2 for town and 1 for scum means our reads are way more significant
Let's say we lynch 2 people today and it's a ML
-> 5 town + 2 scum
Night kill
-> 4 town + 2 scum
Lynch 2 People that day and it's a ML = Lose
Lynch 1 Person that day and it's a ML = Lose
Lynch 2 People that day, one hits one is a ML
-> 3 town + 1 scum
Night Kill
-> 2 town + 1 scum
Final 3
If we lynch 1 person today and it's a ML
-> 6 town + 2 scum
Night Kill
-> 5 town + 2 scum*
If we lynch 2 people and it's a ML = lose
If we lynch 1 person and it's a ML
-> 4 town + 2 scum
Night kill
-> 3 town + 2 scum
Final 5
If we go back to *
If we lynch 2 people and one is a ML and one is a hit
-> 4 town + 1 scum
Night kill
-> 3 town + 1 scum
= 2 lynches to hit the last in a final 4
Basically, this seems kind of aimless but what I'm trying to say is that no matter what, it seems like as long as we don't lose right off the bat on day 2, we have 5 lynches at most to find scum, and 3 lynches to hit the first one at least. We pretty much have to decide which route we take and which risks we want to take to try to hit the scum.
I'd argue that finding scum one day 1 is a bit harder, and I'd probably opt to say that we should only lynch one person on day one UNLESS we hit scum #1 and save the rest of the lynches for day 2 and day 3. Even statistically, I think it's beneficial because let's say we're in a final 4 position, we have 2 lynches to find the remaining scum and it's a 50% chance because you're hitting 2 (that math might actually be wrong) in 4. Haven't looked TOO into this yet but the kind of math is there for you and I might have missed scenarios. The only ones that I haven't mentioned are the ones where we win straight up by lynching both scum, and the ones where scum is lynched on day 1. If it gets to that point, we can scrap whatever is in this post and see what our optimal lynch path is.
In post 50, TierShift wrote:Agreed in full with the above post. Single votes are better. Plus alisae is scummy. VOTE: alisae
On to the theory. It is imperative that we lynch twice everyday. That gives us 3 mislynches and then we can still win the game. If we lynch only once today, we're done for after 3 mislynches.
The highest amount of lynches is always best in a setup like this. I can do the math if anyone disagrees but that town wants to have as many lynches as possible should be a no-brainer.
I was about to say this looks like jumping early
But than i realized i replaced this
In post 510, Michael22Omega wrote:Okay so
I'm vanilla town
I can vote for as many people as i want
So what if i do it, since i don't have any reads yet VOTE: Hiraki VOTE: Towns Last Hope VOTE: Lycanfire VOTE: GuiltyLion VOTE: Not_Mafia VOTE: Martha Zolanski VOTE: Pepchoninga nydushermain
Again, this wasn't a good idea at the start of the game, it's not a good idea now with 6 players alive
In post 495, nydushermain wrote:I don't know if my posts are unimpactful or people just don't care about my reads other than lion or the people I've ever accused because no one really interacts with me in a meaningful way.
you said you liked hiraki/nydus in 416 and expanded that to one of hiraki/myself and one of gl/nydus. why do you care what tiershift has to say if he's barely in the game while you townread him?
Also
That's exactly like you hammered Alisae, right?
So
1) why do you blame on something you already did by yourself
2) Did you become more self aware/paying attention about hammered after that?
In post 81, nydushermain wrote:Granted it's useless now since we already lynched (and apparently mislynched? mod pls?), I feel like no one actually read my analysis. You don't have to have read the math because that was just my notes which I put up there in case anyone wanted to take a look at it, but no one really read the analysis part which showed why 1 lynch day 1 was not a bad thing depending on how confident we were on lynching the first scum.
I mainly did
But skipped to it when i realized it points that i already know
In post 89, Not_Mafia wrote:Votes don't carry over as far as I know, by day I mean phase 1 of the day or whatever the name is
I don't like how this guy ignored the hammer stuff and talks about why would he post
Probably scum VOTE: Not_Mafia
Is he scum for my perspective? No but I'm not sure also. There's no VC to check how much votes does a person have and I'm also too lazy to check how much votes are there when the mod can do that for us.
Is that a meta read?
In post 192, GuiltyLion wrote:nydush the thing is Not_Mafia often plays like this, as town or scum. He's hilarious and I enjoy playing with him so I say this with love but you're going to have a hard time if you expect to determine his alignment by the amount of useful things he says.
Meh
So this is a meta read
Na i am sticking to my scum read
I'd summarize my feeling from what i read so far into this
(nydushermain, TierShift(yes i know it's my slot))
(Hiraki, Lycanfire, GuiltyLion)
(Town, Martha )
(Not_Mafia)
Actually i just went throw everyone's ISO
Some other thoughts i came to:
I feel a lot better about Lion rn , don't think he is scum
Mainly what i think about Lycanfire is that he(it?) is were kinda lazy town at the start, but than it feels like a town that came off a bad start but than i feel like his town became better with scum hunting which looks like it coming from town perspective
About Martha i am actually getting scum vibes, her start felt really off with how she talked like she had no actual intend to solve/think about anything than there is also something tells me #128 was scum motivated thought with the let's not lynch twice day 1 something that tells me she discussed it in mafia chat and decided baiting town into it is good idea.
I also don't get how she goes from he is not scum in #188 to a better lynch in but still haven't voted anyone
Now in #246 her sheeping makes me think it might me a mislynch, and she just pt her vote there to bully it UNVOTE: NM VOTE: Martha Zolanski
Yeah Hiraki stays in my town reads after ISOing
Towns Last Hope is a hydra, which is kinda cool since i just finished hydra game and it's pretty hard to read those because thought process
I'm assuming from what i saw that both hydras voted Alisae at different times
I kinda like him questioning NM reads in #101
I didn't really see a lot of scummy things there as well, so i think i'll just keep him at null for now
nydushermain- sticking to town read
NotMafia started with claiming scum, honestly i actually found scum saying it more often than town
I also get the feeling his tone is awful so w/e the martha interactions i am going back to VOTE: Not_Mafia
Also i feel like he just acts like outed scum with this votes around /non content
Probably would guess Martha/NM as scum team if i have to
