Micro 735: Greater Idea (Day 2 Begins)

[Creature]

Oh well, only one player hasn't posted so far.

VOTE: WhyMafia

[Chickadee]

I'm willing to trust chick's read on creature

Why?

[vonflare]

From my experience playing with creature, he hates rolling scum and is disinterested.

just a gut feeling, this part sounds like something a scum wouldn't say, even about their partner

[WhyMafia]

I'm going to add that I'm a gut player. That's how I get my reads.

Whymafia saying he's tempted to hammer doesn't sit well with me as something a town would say.
His explanation for the funnies sounded fake.

So what's my scum motivation for saying that
Or do you think I scum slipped

[Srceenplay]

I don't think he had any motivation for the first remark. I thought of it as something off the cuff.

[Keychain]

From my experience playing with creature, he hates rolling scum and is disinterested. Given the choice, as he very well could have been in this set-up, I believe he'd pick town.

Interesting. But if he likes playing mafia/teamscum (is there a term for this?) more than he likes SK, he might have picked it anyway.


UNVOTE:
VOTE: WhyMafia
Unnecessarily defensive on the hammer comment. Srceenplay and Chickadee are coming across well though.

[Srceenplay]

Really, your ok with chick?

[Creature]

Good thing about this setup is that even if you have 7 townreads excluding yourself you may still be right about all of them.

[Kairyuu]

Pre-post disclaimer: My work schedule entirely precludes me from posting before around this time in the evening (7:45pm EST at time of post start). Also, as this is my first game back following a roughly 5 year absence I fully expect to have little to no meta-knowledge regarding current play trends. My limited perusal of MD basically tells me that I should be expecting a lot of short multi-posting, but that's about it. In that vein, do not expect this from me. I come from a time of text walls and, so when I have the time, that's what I intend to post, and I probably have the time for at least a while.

On that note, let's see what we've got here.

Going to save setup speculation/discussion until after I get a good review post done to at least get my reads out there before I start doing math, so I'm going to ignore the discards for now.

RVS produces an instant wagon on Keychain. Typically expect the first wagon to take a little longer, but will chalk that up to meta differences. vonflare taking the wagon to L-1 with no comment is certainly something to take note of.

@vonflare:

Can you explain why you brought Keychain to L-1 so early? Basically, were you aware of your position on the wagon, and if so, what was the purpose of the vote?

WhyMafia points out the L-1 vote with mention of temptation to hammer. Assuming this is a joke given vote goes to vonflare for the move, but worth noting.

Vaxkiller following up with a defense of vonflare based only on discard is worth noting as well.

@Vaxkiller:

Why does an alien role discard prevent vonflare from being scum?

@Chickadee:

At the time of post 21, how was Keychain an easy target to vote to make it appear as if one was scumhunting? From my perspective the wagon was baseless and random.

vonflare apologizes for the L-1 vote. Strikes me as genuine. Still want my question answered, but he's my first slight town read for this.

WhyMafia confirms hammer comment was a joke but also mentions the desire to see a page 1 quickhammer.

Time for some generalized meta-discussion. I don't actually think the comment is scummy, as it is not directed towards this game in particular, but it is an extremely anti-town sentiment to hold in a general sense, so I don't like it at all. Basically, at best, a page 1 quickhammer gets lucky and hits a scum with odds equal to random chance, but also forces the game into night phase without time for any potential town powerroles to get any sort of read to help with targeting, and allows the remaining scum (in a general sense ... technically this game could have only one, but that's not the point) a free shot at, for example, a player who they know can read them well, before having to deal with a typical end of day gamestate, which could, and frequently does, give other targets higher priority for any number of reasons. This results in a day 2 with 1 scum dead but essentially no information gained by the town and a tactical advantage given to the scum. And that's the best case scenario. Worst case gives you a town lynch on D1, the same issues with N1, and a D2 where the hammer from D1 is almost always on the chopping block. From here we have a further best and worst case. Assuming the hammer is scum, this is STILL advantageous to the scum, as the entire day's discussion will likely be both brief and entirely focused around that wagon, so they get basically the same benefits as in the best case scenario, and are now going into D3 in a great position tactically. For the worst case here, it's an overeager townie who dropped the hammer D1, which basically wastes two entire days for the town and puts the scum so far ahead that near perfect play would be required for town to even have a chance at winning. Rant over. Moving on.

removed to save space. Refer to post 8.

Like, this post is just so bad. Not only is he using setup spec to try to deflect away from actual scumhunting but also is just going straight for the strongest discard when optimal play is obviously to leave the strongest discard until day 2.

Don't like this post at all. At this point in the game (post 8, where the first 3 posts are modposts), there is no actual scumhunting. Setup speculation is the only available non-random way to determine vote, and is, per the wiki, the preferred way of starting the game with this setup. Also, very curious regarding why the strongest discard is automatically a D2 consideration. Slight townread on vonflare is gone.

Keychain's response here is good.

Post 30 appears to be vonflare's reasoning, which was lacking from his previous post. Definitely don't like it. The conclusions for the reasons behind the discard are logical, but the extrapolation reeks. There's a bit of WIFOM involved here, but basically by it boils down to the idea that by providing that reasoning openly, the chance of sparkles dying N1 is dramatically reduced even if there WAS a plan to kill him (via scum reasoning along the lines of "why kill him tonight if he might be a free lynch tomorrow") and the chance of him being lynched D2 or at the very leased wagoned into a claim goes up, as the reasoning for his discard is not actually wrong. Now, if we look at motivation from each alignment to cause this result, we have the following: As scum, this sets up a reasonable lynch option for D2 that isn't very reliant on gamestate, and which will likely at least result in knowledge of a town powerrole even if the lynch is unsuccessful, which can be handled according to what the role is. On the other hand, as town, this has basically no benefit.

Due to the above I am currently reading vonflare as scum.

Vaxkiller randomly calling for a claim in post 33 is really weird. Possibly scummy? Not sure though.

Post 50 has creature talking about not taking too long . . . at the top of page 3 . . . only a few hours after game start. What?

Now post 55 just comes off as condescending fluff.

And as of post 58 Creature has posted 7 times in the span of a few hours but managed to say nothing of substance barring a comment about the discards in his first post, and has now voted Chickadee with no stated reasoning, which he then follows with 2 more posts, the first of which is basically a retraction of the only thing close to a bit of content he's had, and the second is more fluff.

Moving right along to Chickadee's post 73. I don't generally trust meta reads based on activity levels. Besides, activity without content is fluff, and distracts the town. That is not a pro-town action. That said, I have seen players like Creature before, and I cannot actually make an alignment read based on nothing, so I'll keep him in my neutral pile for now.

And then almost immediately Creature swaps his vote with, again, no stated reason, and has ignored Chickadee's request for a reason for the initial vote.

WhyMafia's post 78 is oddly defensive over a joke. Methinks there might be something there.

Conclusions:
Majority null reads overall. Standouts are vonflare, who is my strongest scumread, WhyMafia, primarily over his last post, and Creature, who, is null, leaning slightly scummy over the unreasoned votes and refusal to actually engage with people asking him questions.

vote: vonflare

Next up will be some thoughts on the setup, which will be up tonight but I dunno the time frame on.

[WhyMafia]

From my experience playing with creature, he hates rolling scum and is disinterested. Given the choice, as he very well could have been in this set-up, I believe he'd pick town.

Interesting. But if he likes playing mafia/teamscum (is there a term for this?) more than he likes SK, he might have picked it anyway.


UNVOTE:
VOTE: WhyMafia
Unnecessarily defensive on the hammer comment. Srceenplay and Chickadee are coming across well though.

I mean I'm genuinely confused

[WhyMafia]

VOTE: Whymafia

Why so tempted? That doesn't sound like Town mentality.

Here he says it doesn't sound like town.

I don't think he had any motivation for the first remark. I thought of it as something off the cuff.

Here he says I have no motivation

So um

[Srceenplay]

By no motivation I mean it wasn't something you said without thinking. An uninhibited remark. Not something thought out.

[Kairyuu]

Time for some setup math. Fair warning, some of this will be subjective, so take that however you want.
Using the list of roles in on the wiki page for this setup, I've split the possible options as follows:

1) There are 66 positive (or at least neutral) town cards including vanilla townie.
2) There are 19 negative town cards (eg. Black Goo, Lynchbait, the different miller variants).
3) There are 21 cards aligned with the mafia (including saulus).
4) There are 18 cards aligned with the werewolves.
5) There are 9 cards aligned with the aliens
6) There are 9 cards aligned with the replicants.
7) There are 2 cards aligned with the cult
8) There are 4 serial killer cards
9) There are 2 lyncher cards
10) There are 3 survivor cards
11) There are 2 effectively random alignment cards (the wild card and the underdog).

The assumptions that I am making moving forward are as follows:

A) Any negative town roles would be discarded unless the person in question is offered two (eg. when offered miller and mafia goon one would select mafia goon)
B) Vanilla roles would be discarded over roles with positive power of the same alignment (eg. when offered vanilla townie and doctor one would select doctor, and when offered mafia goon and mafia doctor, one would select mafia doctor, but when offered vanilla townie and mafia doctor this assumption does not apply).
C) Negative roles would be discarded over vanilla roles of the same alignment (eg. when offered hirsute goon and mafia goon one would select mafia goon)
D) The compulsive bodyguard survivor card would never be willingly taken.
E) When selecting between competing antitown roles, power roles would be selected over vanilla versions (eg. when offered werewolf and mafia doctor, mafia doctor would be selected).
F) When selecting between two competing antitown roles, if both have power or are vanilla, the one with higher odds of a partner would be selected (mafia>werewolf>alien=replicant>solitary roles)
G) The remaining survivor roles would not be selected over anything but negative town roles.
H) Town power roles would be selected over vanilla town.

Now let's take a look at our game.

We had 0 negative town roles discarded. From A) it can be concluded that 0 negative town roles were offered. The entirety of category 2) can be disregarded and from D) and G we can remove category 10). We've also had 0 negative antitown roles discarded, so we can remove 2 mafia cards and 2 werewolf cards. Adding that to a lack of wild card discard (which would have been shown if it had been selected), and the actual discarded cards (2 mafia, 3 positive town, 1 alien, 2 werewolf, and 1 serial killer) and we can eliminate a total of 36 of the 155 starting cards, leaving 119 possible cards to work with broken up as follows:

1) There are 63 positive town cards
2) There are 17 cards aligned with the mafia
3) There are 14 cards aligned with the werewolves
4) There are 8 cards aligned with the aliens
5) There are 9 cards aligned with the replicants
6) There are 2 cards aligned with the cult
7) There are 3 serial killer cards
8) There are 2 lyncher cards
9) There is 1 random alignment card

From here I'm going to go ahead and disregard the possibility of the underdog being in the game because at a <1% chance I don't think it statistically significant to include it, and the ending alignment is random depending on who dies first anyway, so it changes the numbers by basically 0 to ignore it. The lynchers can also be ignored as their existance is meaningless in terms of the game ending (unless we're using the lyncher version when a lyncher win ends the game, but I doubt that).

That leaves us with 116 cards, of which approximately 46% are antitown. This means that STATISTICALLY SPEAKING this game consists of 5 town players and 4 antitown roles in some combination. Interesting note. If this distribution is what we actually have, and all of the non-town players happened to get the same faction then it is possible for us to be in lylo right now. Doubtful, but possible.

We can extrapolate further for individual players as well using my assumptions from above (to which I am adding another assumption that the player in question was not offered duplicates of the same role in the 3 instances where the discarded card has at least one more copy in the deck than was discarded):

Keychain: Discarded Mafia Goon. This eliminates vanilla mafia and vanilla werewolf, leaving town (57.8%), mafia power role, werewolf power role, alien, replicant, cult, and serial killer (total 42.2%).

Chickadee: Discarded Tourist. This eliminates nothing, leaving town (54.3%) and all possible anti-town factions and roles (45.7%)

vonflare: Discarded Alien Vanillaiser. This eliminates vanilla mafia and vanilla werewolf with the same remaining possibilities as Keychain.

Vaxkiller: Discarded Werewolf. This eliminates vanilla werewolf, leaving town (55.8%) and the same antitown options as keychain plus vanilla mafia (44.2%)

Creature: Discarded 2-shot Bulletproof Serial Killer. This eliminates nothing as the remaining 3 serial killer types are different enough to be considered distinct here. Same odds as Chickadee.

WhyMafia: Discarded Mason Lover. This eliminates nothing, leaving the same results as Chickadee and Creature.

Agent Sparkles: Discarded Vigilante. This eliminates vanilla town and the one-shot vigilante (due to same power but weaker version), leaving non-vig town power (48.5%), and all possible antitown roles (51.5%)

Kairyuu: Discarded Mafia Goon. Exactly the same as Keychain.

Srceenplay: Discarded werewolf Roleblocker. This eliminates vanilla werewolf and vanilla mafia. Same results as Keychain, vonflare, and Kairyuu.

Only particularly interesting statistic to pull from that is that due to the discard Agent Sparkles has a slightly above 50% chance of being anti-town.

That took far longer than expected.

[Nexus]

Votecount 1.2:

vonflare (3)

- WhyMafia, Vaxkiller, Kairyuu

WhyMafia (3)

- Srceenplay, Creature, Keychai

Keychain (2)

- Agent Sparkles, vonflare

Not voting (1)

- Chickadee,

Day 1 will end in 7 days, at 6am BST on Wednesday 9th August 2017: (expired on 2017-08-09 06:00:00)

With 9 alive it takes 5 to lynch.

[Keychain]

Um. Wow. I'm a wee bit stunned after that. That is some serious maths. Do the results lead you to any further opinions on the players?

Also, as this is my first game back following a roughly 5 year absence I fully expect to have little to no meta-knowledge regarding current play trends. My limited perusal of MD basically tells me that I should be expecting a lot of short multi-posting, but that's about it. In that vein, do not expect this from me. I come from a time of text walls and, so when I have the time, that's what I intend to post, and I probably have the time for at least a while.

Welcome back. I also tend towards longer, more infrequent posts, but I've started mobile posting a lot more.

[Vaxkiller]

@Kairyuu Alien VANILIZER is a pretty strong role, so I was happy to give von a town read on that... you may notice I'm voting for them now however, that read only got them so far.

I'm not as confident as chick with her creature read. I've played alot with creature too, but a few posts ring off to me this game.

Also im not seeing why mafia as mafia (or whatever else there is)

[vonflare]

People who are voting me due to my assertion that we should not vote sparkles today, are you doing it because you disagree with my assertion or because you think setup spec is scummy?

[Chickadee]

@Chickadee: At the time of post 21, how was Keychain an easy target to vote to make it appear as if one was scumhunting? From my perspective the wagon was baseless and random.

At the time there wasn't much of significance going on, and I thought both were easy targets since they were mainly the only ones in the game at that point.

[Vaxkiller]

People who are voting me due to my assertion that we should not vote sparkles today, are you doing it because you disagree with my assertion or because you think setup spec is scummy?

Your posts read as try harding. It's RVS and your taking everyones words and actions as super serial.

[vonflare]

This is my first game onsite in like 2 years

[Creature]

Oh no, I'm being doubtcasted, such cruel destiny.

[Creature]

Not gonna try to setup spec, rn it's kill someone and hope it's anti-town, the cycle going on until game ends.

[Creature]

I guess AS' explanation to discard vigilante is plausible.

[Srceenplay]

VOTE: chick

[vonflare]

@vonflare:

Can you explain why you brought Keychain to L-1 so early? Basically, were you aware of your position on the wagon, and if so, what was the purpose of the vote?

purpose of the vote was to put keychain at L-1.

I think she's scum, I'm totally fine with that lynch.