Mafiascum.net

Posted: **Sun Dec 31, 2017 3:43 pm**

Vote Count 2.01Chip Butty (1) - Maxous
Maxous (1) - Not_Mafia

Not Voting (6) - Almost50, Chip Butty, Elmo TeH AzN, havingfitz, mutantdevle, Sauce

With 8 votes, it will take 5 to reach majority.

The deadline is Sunday, January 14, 2018, at 9:00 PM EST (UTC-5), which is in (expired on 2018-01-14 21:00:00).

Moderator Commentshavingfitz is on V/LA from December 29 to January 3.

Posted: **Sun Dec 31, 2017 3:45 pm**

In post 181, Maxous wrote:
In post 176, Chip Butty wrote:My vote on havingfitz is probably a bit stale. Will reread and review...

In post 172, Chip Butty wrote:I should be able to put more effort into the game now...

In post 171, Chip Butty wrote:Back on deck, and rereading in a few hours, with any luck.

In post 134, Chip Butty wrote:First complete readthrough: A50 is town. MD is 70% town. Bins is 70% scum. Mutant could well be SK. Lots of boring setup talk, to which I will now add my two cent's worth:

If I knew right now who the SK is, I would lynch them without a second thought. Even if it is in their interests to work with town for now, they're still more likely to shoot town than scum. We're looking at potentially 3 deaths per day/night cycle, and could lose real quick.

More reads soonish, I hope.
possible scum here
promising more reads but struggling to give them
i've been in this kind of situation before as scum where you over-promise and struggle to back it up

Really? Was it over the leadup to Xmas/NY?

Posted: **Sun Dec 31, 2017 3:46 pm**

In post 182, Maxous wrote:i'll hammer not_mafia anytime.
Sauce is threatening to be in the same boat too

What do you think of N_M now?

Posted: **Sun Dec 31, 2017 3:51 pm**

In post 204, havingfitz wrote: Chip votes me for lame reasoning. How my post could not be construed as scum hunting (see post 53) makes me smh….

I'm not sure why HF reacted so strongly to this. It was my intro/RVS vote, and I didn't push it hard. Admittedly, my vote stayed on him a long while, but that was because I wasn't in the game much.

Posted: **Sun Dec 31, 2017 3:58 pm**

Back later. I'll give a readslist when I'm done ISO-ing everyone.

Posted: **Sun Dec 31, 2017 4:00 pm**

Cop switch was the most valuable scum role. Consequently Almost50 is probably town or sk.

There's no reason to town/sk read Maxous' vote and Chip's 1-time-70%-scum read on Bins.

Everyone who townread Math and Almost but didn't participate in pressuring Bins are likelier to be scum.

Posted: **Sun Dec 31, 2017 4:08 pm**

In post 480, Equinox wrote:
Bins
(7) - Almost50,
Mathdino
,
Lalendra
, Not_Mafia, Chip Butty, mutantdevle,
Raya36

mutantdevle (2) - Elmo TeH AzN, Maxous
Maxous (1) - Sauce

Raya36
(1) -
Bins

Not Voting (1) - havingfitz

Posted: **Sun Dec 31, 2017 4:24 pm**

Read through Almost's ISO and nvm

Posted: **Sun Dec 31, 2017 4:47 pm**

In post 505, Sauce wrote:Cop switch was the most valuable scum role.

Not when the cop is dead...

Their only valuable role now is their vig switch.

Posted: **Sun Dec 31, 2017 5:00 pm**

In post 508, mutantdevle wrote:
In post 505, Sauce wrote:Cop switch was the most valuable scum role.
Not when the cop is dead...

Their only valuable role now is their vig switch.

You realize they said was.
Not even Vig switch doesnt mean much unless the vig is 100% sure I wouldn't have them take the shot and hit scum because it can end the game.

Posted: **Sun Dec 31, 2017 5:02 pm**

We're at 8 right now
Lynch today if we don't hit scum - 6
SK kills a VT - 5
Vig Shoots someone (Other then mafia) - 4
Mafia Shoots - 3

There's the game. I know the odds are skewed against it.

Posted: **Sun Dec 31, 2017 5:02 pm**

Holy hell I meant 7.

Posted: **Sun Dec 31, 2017 5:21 pm**

@ Sauce:

,

,

Not_Mafia:

,

,

,

@@ mutantdevle:

,

,

,Elmo TeH AzN,Maxous,

Not_Mafia

@@ Maxous:

Lalendra

,Sauce,havingfitz

Mathdino

:

@ Elmo TeH AzN:

,

,

@ havingfitz:

,Chip Butty

Bins

:

Mathdino

,

Maxous

,

Almost50

@@@@

Raya36

:

@ Chip Butty:

Last relevant Day 1 vote state

Posted: **Sun Dec 31, 2017 5:27 pm**

I'm pretty sure the vig killed Raya, mafia killed Math and the sk killed Lalendra.

Posted: **Sun Dec 31, 2017 5:28 pm**

no wait. the vig killed Lalendra and the sk killed Raya. Unless the vig thought Bins would bus Raya like that

Posted: **Sun Dec 31, 2017 5:31 pm**

VOTE: havingfitz

Posted: **Mon Jan 01, 2018 4:39 am**

In post 484, mutantdevle wrote:Should we try to figure out whether it was the mafia or the vig that killed Lalendra or Raya or do y'all think it would be a waste of time?

In post 489, mutantdevle wrote:
In post 486, Not_Mafia wrote:Vig killed Raya, it's obvious
Probably yeah. So the SK killed Lalendra. The kill could be random but I'd assume the SK would kill based on who they felt most threatened by.

I don't like these two quotes. First, mutant appears to be sure the SK shot the Cop (means the SK in immune to Mafia shots and not Town action). Then he realizes his slip and corrects it in the second quote stating the SK shot Lalendra which directly contradicts his first "assumption".

My theory is mutant is either the SK (who knows whom he shot) or Mafia (who not only know whom they shot, but also know they didn't shoot Mathdino).

And I'm left with the question of WHY would Mafia take the risk of letting the Cop live another day? It must be because his top SRs are NOT group Scum (I'm using the term "group Scum" to avoid the silly confusion of putting "not" next to "mafia")

So, Mathdino initially called a

Bins

/

Raya

/Fitz

Mafia team. He later added Chip might be Town and to lynch Maxous today (473 which was his last will.

If all above is true, then fitz and Max are not likely to be Mafia. One of them could still be the SK.

I could go on theorizing all possible scenarios on "who shot whom", but the shot at Lalendra doesn't make sense from anyone, except if the shooter wanted to make sure they AVOID the TPRs, or if they somehow suspected Lalendra was the Town Vig.

So, to reiterate: Lalendra was obv!Town and Mathdino was the claimed Cop = Raya was definitely shot by the Vig. SK would want to shoot Mafia (that wouldn't be Lalendra by any measure) or the Cop, so Mathdino was shot by the SK most likely. Mafia shot Lalendra to try and give the Cop a chance to catch the SK, knowing they were not likely to be his investigation target, and all this points to mutant being Mafia who scum slipped and tried to correct his slip.

VOTE: mutant

Posted: **Mon Jan 01, 2018 4:41 am**

P.S. I'm also willing to join he Chip Wagon. It could very well be Chip+mutant for the Scum team, and fitz or Max for the SK.

Posted: **Mon Jan 01, 2018 4:47 am**

More theory talk: if we nail the SK the Vig will definitely be shut down, so only one death at night.

We are 5-2-1 now. Assuming we lynch the SK = 5-2 and tomorrow we are 4-2 (traditional MyLo).

If we lynch Mafia today though it would be 5-1-1 and it's anyone guess how many town deaths at night. Scum could cross kill, or could hit town. the Vig may shoot scum, Town or not at all. This is confusing but it has the benefit of the Vig having a chance to do something at night, plus the chance of scum cross killing each other.

Everyone's opinion/feedback is welcome.

Posted: **Mon Jan 01, 2018 5:16 am**

Heres the one problem with that. If they cross kill how would you know who the SK is then. We would be at a loss then if the vig dies as well because SK takes NK Immunity. We all know Dino was a gambit that almost paid off.

Posted: **Mon Jan 01, 2018 5:27 am**

If the SK has Mafia NK immunity we still benefit from them shooting Mafia (and assuming we lynch Mafia today that's the Mafia team eliminated). Furthermore, our Vig is hopefully alive and can claim tomorrow (since they will be shut down by the SK the next night) and become a confirmed Townie and we can work from there.

I mean there's nothing carved in stone, and there's every chance the Mafia/SK will mess up their switch combination tonight and it could still be the case that the SK shoot the Mafia, the Vig shoots the SK and the game is over anyway.

Posted: **Mon Jan 01, 2018 5:43 am**

Wow shows what I read. Didn't realize they got Cop and Vig Immunity

Posted: **Mon Jan 01, 2018 5:48 am**

They EITHER got Cop AND Vig immunity, OR they got MAFIA NK immunity. I'm leaning towards the latter as according to my theory the SK shot the Cop, and they absolutely would not have needed to if they were immune to town action.

Posted: **Mon Jan 01, 2018 5:50 am**

But what I really needed feedback on was the slip itself. Do you see it as I do? (i.e. a scum slip from someone who knows who they shot?)

Posted: **Mon Jan 01, 2018 8:11 am**

Since the Mafia didn't know whether the SK was NK or cop/vig immune, they must've felt compelled to shoot the cop. A clever SK, regardless of chosen immunity, would've known this, and would've felt free to dispose of threats.

Raya was actively contributing to the game, and flipped scum had voted her, so a clever SK would've anticipated that Raya would not have been in today's lynching pool.

Who benefits the most from Raya's death?

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