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actually I guess the way it's balanced is happy-ever-after is a draw, if it gets to 3p LYLO then billionaire and last BG turbo lynch assassin and assassin has 50-50 chance of winning with their twilight shot

nvm what I said

huh

Archwing my reveal his PT if he would like
Deadthread viewtopic.php?f=90&t=74573

well then. bystander effect? i expected at least one other person to protect wilky.

no, i'm making no pretense towards targeting anyone. perhaps this decision lied in arrogance or self-centeredness, but night two i thought that i was a likely candidate for being the king, and as such it was better that i try to survive. the first night i just forgot to submit an action, however, which i'm pretty ashamed of.

to clarify, i thought that my being alive for the assassin's dayshot was more important than protecting someone else to make the assassin think that that person was the king, and i also believed that i didn't need to protect wilky as someone else already would. i'll fully admit that i probably messed this game up.

I protected northsidegal because I knew she was a guard and I wanted her alive, but I assumed SOMEONE would have covered wilky, damn

Archwing did you know he was the Billionaire or did you just take a guess shot?

Only GuiltyLion and Sheepsaymeep submitted actions last night which I believe harmed the town.
The 0 info strategy was fine since you can still lynch and obtain opinions on players without actually having detailed content beyond votes it just happened to not work out this game based on reads people had.

The Wilky shot was pretty clever I didn't actually see any clear reason to think it was him myself which was pretty well played by Archwing.

also, on the "no information" strategy, guards should have still been identifying other guards and narrowing the pool. This is why we kept saying it wasn't random. northsidegal was obviously a guard by knowing Hopkirk wasn't the billionaire. sheep was likely a guard due to how he L-2'd multiple wagons, which would be risky play if he was an assassin not knowing whether they could have been on the billionaire

also, I don't think Hopkirk should have posted this

In post 51, Hopkirk wrote:Should pay attention to whose on the wagon now.
Not assassin.

if I were the assassin I would have maybe thought it was WIFOM, but that it definitely increased the probability that the billionaire was not on Hopkirk's wagon. small things like this give clues and better inform the assassin's judgment, which is why talking in this setup is extremely anti-town. there's no way to scumhunt without showing everyone that the player you're suspecting is clearly not the billionaire

In post 75, GuiltyLion wrote:actually I guess the way it's balanced is happy-ever-after is a draw, if it gets to 3p LYLO then billionaire and last BG turbo lynch assassin and assassin has 50-50 chance of winning with their twilight shot

nvm what I said

and to be fair and criticize myself, this was arguably a guard!slip as well, because billionaire wouldn't know who to "turbolynch" in LYLO. I regretted this post a lot after making it

Hi!

I release my confessional. Readers beware, I melted down.

Wow, I'm shocked, TBH.

So, my n1 shot was on Northsidegal. It got re-directed, so I was suspicious that North was the billionaire. As such, n2 I decided to shoot at a different target to gain more information than trying to get the billionaire kill.

I was super worried when the first wagon was on me, and I felt I had to get my shot ready - Wilky would not have been the target, lol. My end-game shot was ready to be on North.

Guilty, North... I missed all of your slips. I got lucky.

Thanks all for a good game though! I was worried I was being way too "go with the flow... follow the strat... don't talk at all" and was gonna ping someone soon.

Ah to clarify, NSG's slip was more like a townslip to other BGs more than a "not billionaire" slip. Billionaire!NSG could have posted the same thing from your perspective. But assassin!NSG would never have said "you guys messed up, Hopkirk needs to die" when he was at L-2 like that

In post 92, Archwing wrote: Thanks all for a good game though! I was worried I was being way too "go with the flow... follow the strat... don't talk at all" and was gonna ping someone soon.

it was actually this that got me a false townread on you. i figured that the assassin would never silently accept a potential loss on page one, and the later vote on wilky just confirmed to me that you were a guard. i don't think i ever would have suspected you.

surprised to hear that your shot wasn't actually directed at redflavor, however – i thought that the way the wagon on you stopped after your vote in 13 was a sign to the assassin that red was the king and you had just confguarded yourself, hence people unvoting. that's why i thought the assassin might be guilty, because that seemed like the kind of thing he would pick up on.


just realized i never said this, so good game everyone.

Wow
Well played