Open 718: MLOASR - Game Over

[Aubrey]

Then consider me not a fan from a player engagement point and of view. I doubt I’ll enjoy this game if it just makes me sit on my ass and do nothing until we get to the point where we guess which hand has the rock in it.

Lucky for me, scum will kill me tonight or I’ll be proven innocent.

[profii]

You are screaming to get copped so you can PGO to me.

[Almost50]

This is confusing to me. How would we know for sure that it was Aubrey? Scum MAY forfeit factional kill to fool us, we don't know that they will. They also might choose not to activate PGO and use the factional kill instead on a random townie to throw us off, so that kill could mean that Aubrey is definitely NOT scum.

The Cop is visiting Aubrey. Scum have -say- 16.67% of a chance to hit the Cop with their factional shot. (I'm saying 16.67% because we have 8 Town players, and assuming neither myself nor Aubrey is the Cop).

Now if Aubrey is Town they will either take their chances with the other 6 or shoot him to deny us a chance to have 1 confirmed Townie.

If Aubrey is Scum though, he will either activate the PGO or the Cop will return a guilty on him on D2.

Do the math and tell me if 16.67% random chance is greater or that Aubrey activated the PGO and is thus the Cop killer.

[Almost50]

You are screaming to get copped so you can PGO to me.

This is a good catch, and "if I were the Cop" I'd have to decide on whether I do visit Aubrey tonight or let them think that I will and visit someone else.

So,

@Cop: you are free to decide on whether you want to Cop Aubrey or not on N1.

Also,

@JK: You're still free to target whomever your heart desires.

[profii]

“If I was the cop”

Would you say Copping Aubrey and either
- getting PGOd and 99% outing him as scum was a 1 for 1 sacrifice worth making in a 2 scum game?
Or
- if no PGO clearing up Aubrey as town to stop any mess tomorrow should he survive be a worthwhile cop action


I think the latter would be but idk if a 1 for 1 swap is pro town as it essentially leaves a SK and very very little associatives

[Aubrey]

I’m trying to egg on the cop even though A50 proposed the cop to investigate me in the first place? Okay. Sure. Cool. Awesome.

[Almost50]

I would leave that to their best judgement myself. Here are all possibilities:

1- Aubrey Town + Cop visit = Aubrey conf!Town
2- Aubrey Town + Cop no visit = Aubrey suspect
3- Aubrey Scum + Cop visit + PGO = Aubrey conf!Scum
4- Aubrey Scum + Cop visit + no PGO = Aubrey conf!Scum
5- Aubrey Scum + Cop no visit + PGO = Aubrey can be safely checked on N2
6- Aubrey Scum + Cop no visit + no PGO = We missed a chance to check Aubrey

There's only 1/6 choices that confirm Aubrey as Town, but 2/6 to confirm him as scum.
There's also a 5/6 chance the Cop lives anyway.

I'd do the math and consider all possibilities, turning it into a WIFOMy situation. Cop can always confirm "someone else" as either alignment, y'know.

P-edit: OK.. Cop DOES investigate Aubrey is the best play. Maybe I'm being overly paranoid, so we will see about that.

[Almost50]

And just in case I'm dead by tomorrow, I'd say Profii & wilky are near lock!town to me, if that means anything to anyone.

[Aubrey]

So anybody who follows you is town huh? Or do you have better reasons.

[Aubrey]

Specifically Willy.

[LlamaFluff]

Vote Count

Almost50 (1) - Montosh
No Lynch (6) - Almost50, Myloninja13, profii, Aubrey, Lalendra, Floosh

Not Voting (3) - Ahsoka Tano, wilky, Aneninen

No Lynch has been achieved

It is now night one.

All night actions are due by Saturday March 31st, 5:30PM PST

[LlamaFluff]

profii - Compulsive Visitor - Died Night One

With 9 alive it takes 5 to lynch

Deadline for Day two is Friday April 20th, 9AM PST

[Aubrey]

So what now captain A50? Another exciting day of no lynching I presume?

[Montosh]

See, this is the issue. How can we do any night kill analysis when there was almost no interaction with half the game Day 1?

[Almost50]

Now we wait for everybody to report in. Just post anything from "I'm here" to "checking in" to "reporting" to let us know you're aware the thread is reopened. The Cop will only reveal themselves if they have a guilty. Otherwise we know their target returned innocent, then we start from there.

[Almost50]

@Montosh: With or without the traditional D1 scum hunting we would not have a good NKA. Scum are out to shoot the PRs. Period.

[Montosh]

@Montosh: With or without the traditional D1 scum hunting we would not have a good NKA. Scum are out to shoot the PRs. Period.

I disagree. I think there are many bits of info we can normally gain. Whether scum killed on or off wagon comes to mind.

[Aubrey]

Waits for A50 to demand an investigation on Montosh*

[Almost50]

@mod: replace me

I'm not playing with Aubrey who's sole purpose in the game is to mock e, my plan, my play.. etc.

[Aubrey]

Didn't realize I was being mean exactly? Regardless, I will cease if it makes you feel any better, and change my wording.

[Aubrey]

In a more matter of fact way of putting it my thoughts out there:

those who oppose you do not = scum and those who agree with you do not necessarily = town. That is how you have come across to me. You say scum are likely to oppose your plan, but I would argue scum or more likely to sit back and try to go with the flow of the game. Especially early on because they don't want to end up in positions like myself at the end of the day.

that is why I said those who were quick to aggree to the plan, and put out little content, are those to who deserve some shifty glances later on.

[Almost50]

@Aubrey: What was the purpose of 117? If you're Town you just got confirmed. Like we could wait for others to show up and if nobody claims a guilty on you you're on the clear. Why does this bother you in any way?

@Mod: NVM. I'll stay.

[Aubrey]

@Aubrey: I caught Titus using this very same method. I proposed the plan and she was opposed to it, because -realistically- this gives scum a 10% chance to win anyway, so one of them HAS to try and derail it.

Who were the only ones to oppose you? Myself and Montosh. Am I not wrong in assuming you scum-read them as well?

[Almost50]

Scum who agree to the plan w/o giving it a thought would be dumb. We are in a much better position today than we were yesterday.

EVEN if we tried to lynch yesterday it was 98% likely to be a mislynch. That's what the stats say. But I'll give it an 80% (that's a random lynch, which it would not have been because scum are informed).

Now also assuming the PRs didn't give themselves away and we ended up with one NK on a VIT we would be 6 vs 2 todaym but we're not. We're 7 vs 2.

Moreover, even numbers by day always favour scum. Odd numbers favour Town (also statistically proven). So 9 players alive is better than 8 any way you slice it. If I stop now and say we play normally we are still in a better position.

Also as far as you suspecting those who agreed with me, just look at the NK. That is one of the 2 I said were semi-confirmed townies to me. profii looked like a COP to scum.

Can we please stick to the facts for the time being? We do have results and progression in the game you know. Use them. Like if you know yourself to be a townie you know everyone else will in a matter of a few hours and you can be in a better postion than even myself because -despite of it all- I am not confirmed to the crowd myself.

[Almost50]

Who were the only ones to oppose you? Myself and Montosh. Am I not wrong in assuming you scum-read them as well?

Another meaningless question. My own read on Montosh (or anyone else for that matter) shouldn't concern you in the least at this point. If you are confirmed you are the Town leader by default, not me.