Happily Ever After Policy
Posted: Sun Apr 15, 2018 2:59 am
So I've been running some EV calculations on the Newbie Setup, and I've run into a few situations where it would either be essentially throwing the game for mafia to kill, or would be suboptimal for either side to do anything.
I'm not talking about situations like 1:3 vanilla. In practice, mafia DOES kill in those situations to remove a strong townie. So I've made the assumption that in that scenario, town no lynches and mafia kills. In most scenarios I've actually made the assumption that mafia kills, as more nights usually give town more information (Cop/Neapolitan).
I'm talking about things like the following:
Town massclaimed, and the doc is on the Tracker. Tracker is checking remaining VT claims.
Killing will immediately lose the game due to the tracker's result. So killing would legitimately be 100% throwing the game here, and can never improve EV.
If the burden is on town to lynch however, they have a 50/50 shot the next day of lynching correctly.
So who is the burden on in this situation? Who wins if mafia (optimally) no-kills forever, while town (optimally) no-lynches forever? And if one group is FORCED to do something, which group is it?
This is more complicated. I worked out the odds for if mafia kills in this situation, and later no-kills when it would be throwing otherwise (putting the burden on town).
If mafia kills, town EV is 38.9%.
If mafia stops killing altogether, however, the next day (MyLo), town has a 50% chance of losing immediately. If they do lynch correctly, it goes into Tracker + Unclaimed Doc + 2 VTs vs Mafia Goon at night, and unless this scenario has a 78% or higher town EV no matter what mafia does, this EV is lower. (if mafia specifically NEVER kills and town is forced to lynch, that scenario has a 66.7% EV for town, putting the entire "mafia stops killing" scenario at town EV = 33.3%)
Mafia is benefited by not killing at all.
And of course, because of this, if mafia no-kill, town will no-lynch to throw the choice back to them and increase their own EV.
So who is the burden on in these situations?
That said, feel free to discuss your own thoughts/opinions on Happily Ever After situations.
I'm not talking about situations like 1:3 vanilla. In practice, mafia DOES kill in those situations to remove a strong townie. So I've made the assumption that in that scenario, town no lynches and mafia kills. In most scenarios I've actually made the assumption that mafia kills, as more nights usually give town more information (Cop/Neapolitan).
I'm talking about things like the following:
A. Tracker + Doctor + 2 VTs vs Mafia Goon (claims VT). VT gets lynched.
Town massclaimed, and the doc is on the Tracker. Tracker is checking remaining VT claims.
Killing will immediately lose the game due to the tracker's result. So killing would legitimately be 100% throwing the game here, and can never improve EV.
If the burden is on town to lynch however, they have a 50/50 shot the next day of lynching correctly.
So who is the burden on in this situation? Who wins if mafia (optimally) no-kills forever, while town (optimally) no-lynches forever? And if one group is FORCED to do something, which group is it?
B. Tracker (with an inno on the Doctor) + Unclaimed Doctor + 2 VTs vs 2 Mafia Goons, going into night.
This is more complicated. I worked out the odds for if mafia kills in this situation, and later no-kills when it would be throwing otherwise (putting the burden on town).
If mafia kills, town EV is 38.9%.
If mafia stops killing altogether, however, the next day (MyLo), town has a 50% chance of losing immediately. If they do lynch correctly, it goes into Tracker + Unclaimed Doc + 2 VTs vs Mafia Goon at night, and unless this scenario has a 78% or higher town EV no matter what mafia does, this EV is lower. (if mafia specifically NEVER kills and town is forced to lynch, that scenario has a 66.7% EV for town, putting the entire "mafia stops killing" scenario at town EV = 33.3%)
Mafia is benefited by not killing at all.
And of course, because of this, if mafia no-kill, town will no-lynch to throw the choice back to them and increase their own EV.
So who is the burden on in these situations?
I'm specifically interested in the official Newbie Queue policy on this, because that would be what affects my EV calculations.
That said, feel free to discuss your own thoughts/opinions on Happily Ever After situations.