Fallout Mafia - Commonwealth Edition (Day 8)

[Kokichi Oma]

Well PJM’s flavor was explicitly safe. Why should I believe that the mod would do that if they were just going to give fakeclaims to everyone else?

Not sure if dumbtelling or just being dumb

[GuyInFreezer]

6.01

wilky (2):

REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE

REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE (1):

YT2980

Dunnstral (1):

wilky

YT2980 (1):

Kokichi Oma

Kokichi Oma (1):

Alchemist21

Not Voting:

punreader, Ankamius, Dunnstral

With

8

alive,

5

to lynch

Deadline: (expired on 2018-07-07 17:24:09)

[wilky]

VOTE: Kokichi

[YT2980]

UNVOTE: RMOJ
forgot my vote was on him until rereading this day phase, TBCH.




here’s a solid town case for wilky, based in large part on information that i had not yet fully consumed. i wanted to investigate him fully anyway because i pushed him up my hill from town-to-scum:

52: counterclaiming miller in his very first post in thread serves to make his claim credible enough—upon first glance—to beget town points. the thought process behind it seems like one town might pursue. and plus, even if he is in fact scum, i can see little scum incentive/thoughts of a scummy agenda lurking beneath counterclaiming someone who he’d then have knowledge of being town, given the mod has made it clear that this game is straight-up commonwealth vs. institute in the OP and in our commonwealth role PM.

379: makes a potentially solid case for himself being town, in that gif is a mod that has apparently had 2 town millers before, and that it wouldn’t make sense for him to have a scum miller and a town miller in this particular game. Occam’s razor would theoretically uphold this statement, in that it would be easier to assume they are both town if this was already the case in a gif game before.

387: looks good for wilky that impossibear had an early townlean (2nd largest townread, down to alchemist) on him for the way he came in right away and ‘challenged dave’ from the get-go, as though he is trying to catch someone in a lie. hadn’t caught this point before, but it’s fairly solid and still remains. plus, impossibear correctly predicted there was definitely one scum on the first 5 votes for wilky—as Maria R’s flip now indicates. further on in this post, impossibear states a read of thinking wilky is 100% town—in that he feels his incentive for counterclaiming was town-oriented because of having “something confirmable that could catch scum”, and
that wilky backed it up with excitability and confidence. further, impossibear states “it doesn’t make sense to not only throw yourself into the spotlight but do so against 1 person you would know is town. it doesn’t end well for scum there.”

1213: wilky acknowledges that even though as of this post he felt my slot was scum and he voted me in this post, that ramcius made a post that was “towny af.” it’s often a difficult thing for scum to acknowledge something like that, in my experiences, in spite of laying their vote on someone, so put this in the possibly townpile.

1292: wilky serves a very solid rebuttal to ramcius’s stance of “it going without saying” that scum have fakeclaims by stating that one “can’t say it goes without saying” unless it’s confirmed by flips or the game mod.

scum having 2 investigative roles is also an unlikely assumption by occam’s razor, and wilky claimed slow cop as his role ability.

Next up: I would like to investigate a town case for Kokichi, since he is currently leading in votes.

I will state I am OK with waiting to lynch a possible scum—rmoj or a possible scum—alchemist, so my vote will probably land in one of the 2 directions between kokichi and wilky, given my current townreads. I’m definitely leaning towards kokichi atm.

[Kokichi Oma]

Dr. Amari Commonwealth Vanilla.

i had to scroll forever for that damn thing

[Kokichi Oma]

I've never played fallout but the PM says something about studying brains

[Dunnstral]

Dr. Amari

if you rearrange the letters you get mariAr. D, and MariaR was scum. @Alchemist21 do you think we have something here?

[Alchemist21]

We have a lot of D jokes we could make.

[Ankamius]

is it time to horrify everyone with vca yet

[Alchemist21]

Only if it comes with cake.

[Ankamius]

well tbf

I probably won't post my results here anyways so you get a free not-getting-horrified

you're welcome

[Kokichi Oma]

So this is a game

[Ankamius]

so I looked at some VCs for a bit and this is already starting to stand out big time

VOTE: Kokichi Oma

[YT2980]

Here’s a towncase for Kokichi (I’ll note that he replaced in for verylazy)

in 60: verylazy drops a solid point that policy lynching miller claims is inherently a bad idea, in response to tchill13 (the player punreader apparently replaced in for). also, being against policy lynches is oftentimes a town motive.

in 3005: i see kokichi asks a solid question concerning now confirmed-scum MariaR, in that it didn’t make much sense for MariaR to scout Dunnstral, who MariaR acknowledged she can read better than anyone else on the playerlist in 3004

3012/3013: kokichi demands for mariar claim, but threatens to day vig her if she doesn’t. the threat here has a possible interpretation of being ‘t vs. s’—with MariaR being the S in this scenario—obviously.

3022: a reaction test on now confscum maria looks good on paper.

That’s all I got. This is a relatively weak towncase, in that there is not a lot of defendable ‘clear’ town motives—and it’s that lack that has likely kept Kokichi out of just about everyone’s townread pile, including my own.


Kokichi, I encourage you to stick up for yourself and create a towncase to boost my currently weak stance on yourself. Or anybody else, feel free to. In the meantime, I am going to construct opposing cases of wilky being scum, and kokichi being scum.

But this case is comparably weak to any of the other towncases I have defended, and heard from the points of others. I am definitely tempted to L-1 you, but I will wait until I feel solid about you being scum, and it’s going to take a little more analyzing before I can reach that point. I also would love to hear someone else or yourself presenting a case for you being town—if that is obtainable.

Next up: the case that Wilky is scum.

[Ankamius]

YT2980, be very careful about your points early in the game about the miller claims or how to play out the game at that point

It's a very easy way for scum to pick up townpoints (this is where my initial scumread on Alchemist21 came from and how I fell for townreading MariaR early on) without actually helping the game forward since it's all stuff that

someone

will eventually throw out there.

[Ankamius]

YT2980, be very careful about your points early in the game about the miller claims or how to play out the game at that point

It's a very easy way for scum to pick up townpoints (this is where my initial scumread on Alchemist21 came from and how I fell for townreading MariaR early on) without actually helping the game forward since it's all stuff that

someone

will eventually throw out there.

or I could start using my brain

it doesn't help the game forward because it doesn't actually give concrete direction to go off of, it's just vagueness that looks good at a glance.

[Kokichi Oma]

Town case: I'm town.

[Kokichi Oma]

My play earlier proves I was town. But I'm tired of repeating

[YT2980]

YT2980, be very careful about your points early in the game about the miller claims or how to play out the game at that point

It's a very easy way for scum to pick up townpoints (this is where my initial scumread on Alchemist21 came from and how I fell for townreading MariaR early on) without actually helping the game forward since it's all stuff that

someone

will eventually throw out there.

actually, that seems a solid point, but it took me reading this a few times to understand it. basically, merely making observations about something like that which isn’t gonna push the game forward at this point is vague, and something scum might do. did i get your drift? i think i did! correct me if i didn’t.

[Ankamius]

correct in one, YT

[Punreader]

So at this point I'm willing to call all of Alchemist21, REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE, and wilky confirmed town on one merit in of itself:
There's too many vanilla claims.

We've had two VTs flip thusfar in the game, and now we have a total of four more.

While three are guaranteed to be truthful (thus, giving us five VTs), I would not imagine we'd have six VTs in this game.

This is particularly true if you trust wilky to be town. If wilky is town, then the last pun has a role causing wilky's repeated failures, one which they would never openly claim. (And thus, they claim VT instead.)

Of course, this does not narrow things down much as REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE was already conftown, Alchemist21 should be conftown tomorrow, and wilky is off the lynch table for today.

If I had to select a lynch-then-hide right now (i.e. select top two suspects), it would be lynch Kokichi Oma, hide behind YT2980 (Dunnstral is tempting, but he is soft-cleared via Maria's role; while this does not remove him from the lynch pool altogether as he is not conftown, it makes him a less appealing target), but I still need to put the time into reading and gamesolving.

[Kokichi Oma]

What's the point of telling who you would hide behind, scum would just kill them. You sure you town, bro?

[REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE]

okay so funny story guys

i dreamt about this game, and, like, i dreamt that we lynched dave and he flipped scum, and we won

but, when i woke up, i knew it was bullshit, because we already lynched dave... and he was town

so fuck

[REALMEN ONLY JUNGLE]

gut says we go here

VOTE: kokichi oma

[Ankamius]

UNVOTE: Kokichi Oma