Open 725: Jungle Republic - Day 5

[Sando]

It too was because the Werewolves had bad reads (and were again hunting the fricking Seer), killing a lot of the town. And when Werewolves suck, we need to try lynching them before they hurt town too much. Either that or focus in lynching Mafia as long as the Seer is alive.

You seem to think the NK makes the wolves some sort of gods and this is their game to lose. Even in the absolute best case for them where they get a Mafia lynched today and kill the seer overnight, it's 2 vs 8 and they still need to overcome some anti-win conditions.

[skitter30]

OK I'm around but I'm on like page 27 but it looks like people are waiting for me?

[Espeonage]

There is a difference between forcing through a lynch on someone with reasoning based on falacies, and lynching someone you actually think is scum. You are doing the former.

[Espeonage]

@fumuki

[Espeonage]

And yes sando, I segwayed into a dressing the wagon in general. Sorry for confusion.

[Fumuki]

You seem to think the NK makes the wolves some sort of gods and this is their game to lose. Even in the absolute best case for them where they get a Mafia lynched today and kill the seer overnight, it's 2 vs 8 and they still need to overcome some anti-win conditions.

Sando, you're kind of getting the wrong interpretation. I never said that the wolves are some kind of "god", I've constantly saying that the one with some advantage here is Mafia depending on how things play out, and that Werewolves nightkill affects PLENTY of the game:

If we mislynch and they hit town, Mafia has not only advantage with numbers as well with endgame mechanics, that hurts both town and WW together. Not only that, the werewolves have the Seer to worry about, and if they wait too long to catch him, he'll probably come with a guilty and the WW will end up with a clearly disadvantage.

If the Werewolves kill town at night it this setup becomes heavily Mafia sided, and the win record that I posted just give credit to my reasoning. It's not possible that after playing it in first-hand Espeonage didn't notice that Werewolves did hurt town A LOT, and if he did notice it, it makes little sense him saying that there's no difference between Werewolves and Mafia.

Plus, if you're attentive he's been trying to throw shade to whatever side there's to throw shade, look at him using singleball scumtells that he should for sure know that doesn't work and even said himself way back there that hunting in multiball and singleball is different.

I can't see a town!Espeonage here.

[Fumuki]

There is a difference between forcing through a lynch on someone with reasoning based on falacies, and lynching someone you actually think is scum. You are doing the former.

I find amusing how you try to discredit everything without actually using arguments.

Even more amusing you saying about "falacies" with that push on TW that you did back there.

[Fumuki]

Btw I'm not scum anymore for pushing your lynch Espeonage?

Noticed that it wasn't making sense to throw shade by that angle in hope of making your wagon disappear?

[Espeonage]

Its been like 20 minutes mate.

[Fumuki]

Indeed

[Espeonage]

You've entirely missed me point though. Which may explain something.

What I was arguing is that mafia and ww are going to be ridiculously hard to tell apart.
If we all agree lynching town is worse than lynching scum.

Then isn't it the most obvious thing in the world that we prioritise lynching scum. And that by inhibiting your pool to your own interpretation of how one side will act, you increase the chance of a misslynch.

Like come on, use your head ffs.

I I want this post screenshotted at post game.

[pinturicchio]

Ok so to summarize and finish this nonsense:

Yes, ideally, Wolves should shoot Mafia and act like serial killers here; that's good for them and for town

Town ideally would lynch Wolves today but without associations we can't tell if someone scummy is Mafia or Wolf; there has been some slippery slips that could discard some players from one or another (Fumuki is probably not Wolf, Sando is probably not Mafia)

Now can we go on with the game? @Sando and @Fumuki get over it, if you won't agree there's nothing good coming out of that conversation; if you want to discuss about the setup, do it at the end of the game or somewhere else, but the game will stagnate if it goes on and on about this topic only.

@Espeonage will you explain your reads at some point?

[pinturicchio]

What I was arguing is that mafia and ww are going to be ridiculously hard to tell apart.
If we all agree lynching town is worse than lynching scum.

Then isn't it the most obvious thing in the world that we prioritise lynching scum. And that by inhibiting your pool to your own interpretation of how one side will act, you increase the chance of a misslynch.

Yes, this exactly. Now pleaaaaase back to the game, town is lurking and that's bad 'cause scum gets the chance to lurk without being scumread because town is doing it too

[Espeonage]

It mostly all comes down to how people are spinning the focus of the town as a whole.

And then what people are choosing to ignore or focus on.

[Sando]

Now can we go on with the game? @Sando and @Fumuki get over it

I'm just killing time until Skitter catches up or UD actually explains "reasons" on me, I don't particularly care at this point.

[skitter30]

TW, we need to heavily disagree here. Sando didn't notice until a minute ago that Mafia has no reason to want to out the Seer. Do you think if he's scum here he would be thinking only about the other team and not what he himself should do?

It makes no sense duckling. There's some probability of him being mafia, but if Sando is scum, he's very likely flipping wolf here.

Yo TW, have your fun with Fumi, but it's just occurred to me: Why are people so concerned about which scumfaction the person is? Town are the least likely to care about what faction someone is other than that they're scum, at least while seer is alive and well.

This basically. Atm I think we just want to lynch scum. In an ideal universe we'd be wolfhunting cuz we don't want nk's but idk if there's a particularly reliable way to distinguish between wolves and scum pre-flip day1 so like I'd be happy with getting any flavor of scum tbh. Like later in the game we need to be cognizant of wincons and try to make sure we don't lose by lynching the wrong scumteam, but beyond the general 'eradicating wolves eliminates nk's' I don't really know if the particulars really matter today.

(mafia!a50 tried to pull some variation of this argument in the last iteration of jungle republic)

PLUS, WHY ARE YOU SAYING THAT TOWN SHOULDN'T CARE ABOUT WHAT FACTION THEY LYNCH?

IF WE LYNCH THE WEREWOLVES HERE, IT BECOME NIGHTLESS AND TOWN GAINS 100% CONTROL OF WHO DIES

Specifically this bit. Mafia!a50 kept shouting this at me there day2.

(town!me held sando's above position, and mafia!a50 held fumuki's above position so idk why this is a argument for scum!sando tbh)

Well he's saying wolves should be killing mafia overnight, ignoring that while that's true, their actual top priority is the seer.

I don't understand this argument between fumuki and sando tbh. In different game states wolves prioritize different things. There isn't a general rule of 'wolves always want to kill the seer' or 'wolves always want to kill mafia' or 'wolves always want to kill people scumreading them'. They'll do whatever's more expedient for them at that time, so like I don't understand why you're quibbling over this.

I don't care who the werewolves are killing first, I need to lynch mafia and werewolves, and I have no way of telling which scum are which during Day 1, so, can we stop talking about who kills whom first?

+1

OK you can be promoted to like minor townlean

If the 2 werewolves drop dead, it becomes a nightless game practically and

town have 100% control of the lynchs

. Town has an advantage in nightless games because the town powerhouses can't eat the NK.

Mafia is the one that benefits more by leaving the Werewolves alive because LATER they need to hunt the Seer and that's basically killing townies while Mafia coast.

I feel like your understanding of the game is fairly simplistic: we want to eradicate wolves so that the game becomes nightless. In theory, that's true ... but like, in practice, lynching two wolves two days in a row isn't nearly as easy as you make it out to be. Like ... lynching scum *in general* isn't nearly as easy as you're making it out to be and just saying 'we're going to lynch wolves today and tomorrow' like isn't going to make that happen and I'll be happy to just lynch not-town.

Also you're claiming that by eradicating all the wolves, town has control over the lynch - that isn't true. Even by lynching all the wolves, day3 there's *at minimum* a two-team scumteam who can influence the lynch, and I think that's a pretty important factor in all of this.

ok i'll end this here and start a new post.

[pinturicchio]

If you're killing time let's jam. Anything you want to talk about? I liked our earlier interactions, and as I said before, now that 720 is finished, I think I'm talking with town!Sando

[Sando]

If you're killing time let's jam. Anything you want to talk about? I liked our earlier interactions, and as I said before, now that 720 is finished, I think I'm talking with town!Sando

Sure, I feel like Espe's view on WW/Mafia hunting has moved. It was "lol you can't regular scumhunt" and is now "lol idiots you can't tell between Scum and WW". To me this feels like trying to get away from previous (bad) theory and now trying to look like the reasonable person.

Thoughts? Am I being paranoid?

[Fumuki]

???

When I said that we shouldn't prioritize lynching scum? I've since the begin been only saying that's optimal to lynch a certain faction, and to differentiate them.

Depending on what gets lynched and how the NK proceeds, even if we most of the time lynch scum town still gets wrecked and may lose. Do you get it?

What I was arguing is that mafia and ww are going to be ridiculously hard to tell apart.

No.

Do I need to make a lot of cases explaining how unlikely some people here are to be from a certain faction but likely or possible to be from another one?

In the first place Espeonage, if not by seeing the intentions from the players and the intentions that the factions here have, HOW DO YOU PLAY TO SCUM HUNT?

You yourself said that again. Singleball methods aren't going to work much around here.

Most of the scum tells that are usually needed to scum hunt relies heavily on the psychological feeling of "intruders" and "outsiders" that Mafiozos hold since they know everything alignments and that they aren't from the same alignments that the other players.

Here?

Scum is more like mason buddies.

It's different, very different, and one of the reasons that people don't like multiball. I'm looking for intentions here, and your intentions in throwing shadow to people that were theorizing about what's better for town by differentiating factions is scummy.

[Sando]

lynching scum *in general* isn't nearly as easy as you're making it out to be and just saying 'we're going to lynch wolves today and tomorrow' like isn't going to make that happen and I'll be happy to just lynch not-town.

You had me up till here, but 7 v 5 is significantly better odds than town normally get D1, I think blind luck here is better lynch percentage than regular games where they actually scumhunt?

[pinturicchio]

If you're killing time let's jam. Anything you want to talk about? I liked our earlier interactions, and as I said before, now that 720 is finished, I think I'm talking with town!Sando

Sure, I feel like Espe's view on WW/Mafia hunting has moved. It was "lol you can't regular scumhunt" and is now "lol idiots you can't tell between Scum and WW". To me this feels like trying to get away from previous (bad) theory and now trying to look like the reasonable person.

Thoughts? Am I being paranoid?

Mmmm I actually think there's a conection between those two posts and it is that Espe's frustrated about the gamestate at this point. I feel the same way, so he's trying to cut the conversation. He went in an aggresive manner about the topic, and I believe that he did that not because he really thinks people (aka Fumuki) are stupid, but because he wants to discourage people of talking about said topic. That is pretty consistent.

[Fumuki]

Hmmm...theory talk....

How the hell you guys plan to scum hunt here if not by trying to guess what is the intention of someone to say something and see if it aligns to one of the optimal strategy from the factions?

Guys, I don't think that scum in multiball feel the same way that scum in singleball feel. Like I said, most scum tells and all comes from the fact that scum generally feel themselves as "outsiders" and "liars", that say "X person is scum" knowing that it's a lie. In my unique scum game in Micro 801 that's exactly how I felt. I looked at every player there and said "shit, you guys are all town aren't you" while saying that they were "scummy"

HERE THEY DON'T NECESSARILY LIE, THEY SERIOUSLY ARE LOOKING FOR SCUM. IT'S JUST AS GENUINE AS TOWN.

I think what we need to find here are scummy intentions, and like I explained, I think Espe intentions are scummy.

[Sando]

Mmmm I actually think there's a conection between those two posts and it is that Espe's frustrated about the gamestate at this point. I feel the same way, so he's trying to cut the conversation. He went in an aggresive manner about the topic, and I believe that he did that not because he really thinks people (aka Fumuki) are stupid, but because he wants to discourage people of talking about said topic. That is pretty consistent.

Ok but I don't really think his original comments were directed at Fumu, in fact he wasn't in the game at that point, but I can see it, next one:

TW seems off this game compared to 720, less jocular, deflecting rather than engaging, that sort of thing. I mean it could be PR vs not PR, but I would expect the opposite in terms of playstyle movement if that were the case.

[Espeonage]

If you're killing time let's jam. Anything you want to talk about? I liked our earlier interactions, and as I said before, now that 720 is finished, I think I'm talking with town!Sando

Sure, I feel like Espe's view on WW/Mafia hunting has moved. It was "lol you can't regular scumhunt" and is now "lol idiots you can't tell between Scum and WW". To me this feels like trying to get away from previous (bad) theory and now trying to look like the reasonable person.

Thoughts? Am I being paranoid?

Those are not mutually exclusive.

I am pushing both of those arguments.

[Fumuki]

Mmmm I actually think there's a conection between those two posts and it is that Espe's frustrated about the gamestate at this point. I feel the same way, so he's trying to cut the conversation. He went in an aggresive manner about the topic, and I believe that he did that not because he really thinks people (aka Fumuki) are stupid, but because he wants to discourage people of talking about said topic. That is pretty consistent.

Ok but I don't really think his original comments were directed at Fumu, in fact he wasn't in the game at that point, but I can see it, next one:

TW seems off this game compared to 720, less jocular, deflecting rather than engaging, that sort of thing. I mean it could be PR vs not PR, but I would expect the opposite in terms of playstyle movement if that were the case.

Okay, now let me give a example of how I think here:

If TW seems like playing low-key and less prone to openly engage people like he usually does, if he's scum, it's more likely to come from a mafia!Duckling that is afraid to eat the NK by exposing himself too much, although has some probability of coming from a wolf!Duckling that wants to stay under radar and not make the Mafia try to lynch him by being a threat.

How come people are saying that there's "no way" to differentiate Mafia and WW?