Open 728: Sharing is Caring (GAME OVER)

[Zoronos]

I think you’re misunderstanding why I asked that question mathdino.

[Zoronos]

That was precisely why I asked the question.

[Zoronos]

Mathdino should be able to meta townread me on my posting this game 100%.
Granted I'm gonna look bad association wise. That happens to town all the time. Whatever... On mobile now and thus posting is crippled.

Two questions, largely unrelated to each other:

1) What do you think is our scum slate right now and why?
2) How do you reconcile this statement with mathDino’s current vote on you?

[Zoronos]

I was looking back at the posts from around the time that everyone was voting jjh and to me it felt like ruru was freaking out a little and was trying to redirect our focus

Have a post reference for this thought?

[Zoronos]

The answer to 2 is that he's going strictly by association (which looks bad and I know it) and ignoring my posting.

The answer to 1 is that I haven't had enough RL time post-flip to have a clue. It's gonna take me at least an uninterrupted RL hour, or several hours of interrupted time.

So Math, are you going by association on Davesaz, or do you have other reasons?

[Zoronos]

HitAlt: Was the worst bussing yesterday on JJH, even though he was the second vote? And was JJH counter-busing him (being the second vote after you)?
Why / why not?

Yes.
Don't know much about jjh, but I know TW wouldn't back down from a bus-wagon after people start to pay attention.
One of the reasons why I stuck to TW all of yesterday was to try and "keep the pressure on him".
While he doesn't crack, I'd still say his hand was forced at least a little.
I'd say his idea for a piece of basic distancing became a hardbuss solely because he didn't want to jump off anymore.

TW is still just likely scum.
And I'm beginning to feel like you are our best hope to actually carry this all the way through Zoro.
Mainly because NSG is now gone, and MathDino might be MaffDino after all too.
Even if I have a hypo-inno on him..(??)

So, let's say that JJH and the_worst were cross busing.
In such a world, do you think third scum is more likely to be on-wagon or off-wagon? Obviously the theoretical third scum couldn't have been on the_worst since that wagon was just you and JJH.

[Zoronos]

NSG thought it was possible the_worst was scum and he and JJH were engaging in a bit of theater, so your theory comports with her end of day inclination.

[Zoronos]

dynamic duo ended by the way math

Hey Math:
Why did NSG say this?

I originally thought she was expressing skepticism of your towniness (that is 'we're not a special buddy team this game anymore'), then realized during night phase that was the name of a recently-completed game.
So, why did she bring this to your attention?

[Zoronos]

Me?

I haven't sat down and done that yet, no

Is that the burden I'm under in order to canvas votes

Well, you just said bad votes, PoE, and associations, so, yeah, kinda.
Your case didn't inspire me to agree with it. I have non-zero latent dave suspicion so I'm going to work on building my own case / making up my own mind on the situation, but your case did basically zero to convince me to vote him.

You want me to follow, you gotta do some legwork or provide something convincing. I don't particularly care what form that legwork takes (and to be frank 'meta' legwork is the kind I'm least likely to follow, because of my viewpoint on the validity of most meta-tells), but what you've given so far isn't good enough.
Why are his votes particularly egregious and not just D1-town-that's-wrong. What specific association makes him scum? Why is his PoE worse than, say, HitAlt's or The_Worst's?

[Zoronos]

I don't care about NK spec or self-meta.

[Zoronos]

That I am happy to do.
Like, I'll work with you to develop a case (which, frankly, I'm kinda toe-tapping waiting on the low post count crowd at the moment for), but self-meta, nk spec, and vague appeals to 'bad votes' aren't what will convince me you're right.
What I will do is work to convince myself whether you're right (or wrong).

[Zoronos]

NSG was the towniest player in the game after JJH flipped scum; she drove that train right over him. If a vig shot her, I don't even know what to say.
Something_Smart was the vig shot unless we live in upside down world.

[Zoronos]

I agree with ruru.
Pintu: It's anti game-solving because there is no world where S_S is scum and looking through his ISO for 'why maybe the scum shot him for being a PR' doesn't do any good when he's already flipped VT.
If you have done a bunch of stuff then concluded nothing, just don't post it. It's noise that doesn't advance the cause of finding scum. Find scum.

Also the logic of MathDino shooting a maybe-PR over a claimed PR requires 1) MathDino to ignore a claimed PR and 2) a vig to exist that was willing to shoot NSG.
A part of me thinks maybe MathDino is scum here, but of all the reasons why, that's not among them.

[Zoronos]

Yeah, he is. But refusing to give reads is kinda... odd?
I mean, playing uncooperatively isn't a great way to get votes to move.

[Zoronos]

Oh, I guess he's not at L-2.
W/E.

[Zoronos]

IMO it's a pretty classic scum strat to avoid being on the lynching wagon, and push something that will probably never achieve a lynch.
honestly my wagon was so bad I wouldn't be remotely surprised by 2 scum being on it.

I agree except I think this normally holds on a mislynch.
Scum tend to want to be on lynches for scum.

Also there’s a leveling component to that argument.

[Zoronos]

Sharing is Caring D1 VC #20+2 (Final)

jjh927 (7):

northsidegal

, the worst, ruru, BlackStar, HeWhoSwims, ofrhz, Mathdino,
the worst (2):

HitAlt

,

jjh927

,
Something_Smart (2): pinturicchio, Zoronos,
HeWhoSwims (1):

davesaz

,

Not Voting: Something_Smart,

(expired on 2018-06-06 23:00:00)

Flip in a few minutes

fair call but like...this wagon
Hit and dave being the slots I'd prefer to see flip today, I can't really see either of them organically joining the jjh wagon yesterday. scum will want to be on a scum lynch sure but not if they can't reasonably fabricate a scumread on their buddy.

When you say this wagon, do you mean the wagon on your, the wagon on HWS, or the wagon on JJH?

[Zoronos]

Also, that was a post counter claim wagon, which is a lot different than an actual run up wagon.

[Zoronos]

Well, two people different but the positions are swapped around.

[Zoronos]

Math: what is your current read on pintu?

[Zoronos]

Hmmm...

OK Dave can be town
Praise be unto gals from north sides
I hereby sheep
VOTE: HitAlt

Lynch TW if he makes it to lylo please

What opinion of NSG's are you referencing here?
I don't recall seeing her make a statement about HitAlt or Dave but maybe I missed something.

[Zoronos]

Hitalt stonewalled the jjh lynch yesterday

How do you distinguish town-but-wrong-about-JJH from scum stonewalling in this case?
Because I can see a world where HitAlt was town-reading JJH due to bias from agreement (they were both on the_worst most of the day).

[Zoronos]

That's not really a rebuttal. If your evidence is 'He stonewalled the scum lynch', how do you know that's a thing he did as scum and not just as town-but-wrong?
Because I know I've certainly argued against scum getting lynched (as town) and been super wrong.
So what's different here? What about the way he did it makes him scum and not just bad-town?

[Zoronos]

HitAlt fell out of my town pile back into the neutral zone, but I have some latent skepticism that scum would 1-2 vote the same target for a majority of the game day and be so blatant about it.
Could it happen? Absolutely. Does it frequently happen? Not in my experience.

I'm not opposed to the notion of scum-HitAlt, but I'm not yet at the point of being convinced it's the right vote. I have some questions pending to him, so I'd like to know more atm.

[Zoronos]

We should lynch TW today.
I won't budge from that.

We lynch jjh927, and we likely hit town.
I wouldn't even feel bad if jjh927 DID flip today, and flips scum. I don't have a strong read on them either way, I just think they give more of a fake vibe, rather than actual scum. I just think we would have way more activity in game against his lynch if he was scum.

What is the difference in your mind here between a 'fake' vibe and a scum vibe?

Well, since I'm tired of not giving straightforward answers: it's similar to how scum!lurky can be different from PR!lurky.

Intent was in 1235, so he hadn't claimed yet by this point, but he was stuck at L-2.

[Zoronos]

Maybe this is a stupid question, but the wiki entry doesn't answer it concretely.
Do scum have daytalk in this setup?

Back where I came from scum always have daytalk, so I kinda assume coordination on things like voting and busses and whatnot, and I've realized that's less universal here.

[Zoronos]

Counterbalancing probabilities.
'Forgets' there is no daytalk vs 'I'd never do X!' (when there's a clear line of play where he had no influence on the decision to do X)

[Zoronos]

Basically, I don't think it moves the needle at all.

Town points: Assumes daytalk, and is wrong.
Scum points: constructs scenario wherein he can't be scum because scum math would never suggest a jailer fakeclaim, however without day talk that's not clearing because it's possible math didn't have any input into the jailer claim.

It's not that hard to 'oops I forgot ha ha I'm dumb' as scum, and putting forth reasoning for being conf-town as scum based on things scum-Math would know (lack of daytalk) is borderline. So one thing pushes the needle towards town, and another thing pushes it towards scum. So basically I'm ignoring it as far as towniness goes.
My question wasn't intended as looking for either town slips or scum slips, I'm (as probably can be surmised) thinking about the likelyhood of busing and what other scum would be doing in the wake of a claim. Daytalk, imo, makes clean busing more likely and awkward busing less likely. At some point, I'd imagine a scum team that can talk would realize the ship is going town and coordinate their entry to the wagon. Whereas a scum team that can't talk has to make that decision on the fly, so any busser's entry to the wagon will be less natural.

[Zoronos]

Oh I didn’t get it after all lol

Who if anyone do you think was likely bussing on that wagon?

I don't know yet. The massive EoD stall threw off my expectations in a major way. I didn't expect JJH to be scum after that + the claim until HWS countered. Those things suggest scum were probably digging in their heels in a no-bus scenario, since I'd *normally* expect that once scum boarded the bus they'd start advocating loudly for lynch completion with the objective of gaining false town-cred. But we didn't really see that. I had to start digging up votes / preparing to build alternative consensus before Blackstar voted JJH.

If there's a bus vote, my gut says Math or Pintu; I actually liked your pintu case because you said out loud what was percolating in my head but I wasn't ready to commit to yet.
I'm just not sure it fits the rest of the facts we're seeing.

[Zoronos]

HitAlt, you never answered this:

In such a world, do you think third scum is more likely to be on-wagon or off-wagon? Obviously the theoretical third scum couldn't have been on the_worst since that wagon was just you and JJH.

[Zoronos]

Ihhh, what?

[Zoronos]

OK Dave can be town
Praise be unto gals from north sides
I hereby sheep
VOTE: HitAlt

Lynch TW if he makes it to lylo please

Why do you townread him?

Again, call it a really bad soulread
I have these mental pictures of how my friends would play as scum and he just hasn't really done that
It's not definite but realistically you're better off just seeing if he makes it to lylo and deciding then

1621 really looks like it's in context of Dave.
I'm pretty sure Blackstar's question was about Dave... at least that's how I read the exchange.

So you're saying your soul read is on TW, not on Dave.
If so, why is it that you town read Dave now and not previously?

[Zoronos]

idk i guess the AtE is working

i did a refresher on his scum meta to check for capabilities

not super impressed

What AtE are you referring to here?

[Zoronos]

I'd like a better answer from Math on dave. And I'm a little tired of the hiding-hand-behind-my-back-just-trust-me read sourcing.

But I'm pondering 845 in the mean time.

[Zoronos]

Sharing is Caring D2 VC #4

HitAlt (3): ruru, the worst, Mathdino,
Mathdino (2): davesaz, pinturicchio,
the worst (1): BlackStar,
pinturicchio (1): ofrhz,

Not Voting: HeWhoSwims, HitAlt, Zoronos,

With 10 alive it takes 6 to lynch

So, the other reason I'm *really* curious about Math's read on dave is because of this VC.
I'll explain why if / when Math gives me good reasoning behind his change of heart on Dave.

[Zoronos]

What do you mean by 'who came first'?

I can do legwork but you need to be more specific about what you're trying to find.

[Zoronos]

I am struggling to piece together the precise logic, and it does rely on the assumption that my TR's are correct, but my inclination is that sorting math is key to unraveling things unless we live in crazy upside down bus land.

[Zoronos]

Nevermind, the logic has a hole. Disregard.

[Zoronos]

Parse-failure.
Is that 'Yeah, math is likely town' or 'No, math is likely scum' ?

[Zoronos]

I'm not annoyed at Math's meta arguments, I just don't find meta convincing. I think most people are bad at it so usually will get it wrong, so I don't trust town to apply it properly. Also, I've seen scum more than once say 'meta' to justify reads that don't have justification. So largely I ignore cases predicated on meta. Conversely, I thought NSG's JJH case was excellent. Cases don't have to be long or intricate to be good.
Which is personal preference, and I can see why it would annoy both scum!math and town!math so frankly I don't think it's scummy of math to get annoyed by my antics.

Anyway, the reason I was specifically curious about Math was some interesting (to me) VC reduction that could be done if math is town.

Spoiler: D2 VC

HitAlt (3): ruru, the worst, Mathdino,
Mathdino (2): davesaz, pinturicchio,
the worst (1): BlackStar,
pinturicchio (1): ofrhz,

Not Voting: HeWhoSwims, HitAlt, Zoronos,

With 10 alive it takes 6 to lynch

So, let's live in the land where the following people are town:
Me, HWS, ruru, Blackstar, Ofrhz.
That reduces the VC to this:

HitAlt (3): the worst, Mathdino,
Mathdino (2): davesaz, pinturicchio,

Not Voting: HitAlt

We pull out MD, and now we have the following effective VC:

HitAlt (3): the worst
Mathdino (2): davesaz, pinturicchio,

Not Voting: HitAlt

Spoiler: pre-claim D1 VC

1181 + a couple votes not captured on the VC, again, adding math to green-list.

Jjh927

(6):

northsidegal

, the worst, pinturicchio,

ruru

,

Mathdino

,

BlackStar

(+

Zoronos

declaring intent to hammer)

HeWhoSwims

(3): davesaz,

ofrhz

,

BlackStar

the worst (2): HitAlt,

jjh927

davesaz (1):

Zoronos

Not Voting:

Something_Smart

,

HeWhoSwims

[Zoronos]

JJH likely white knighted ofrhz just like he did me, imo.

[Zoronos]

But I'm pondering 845 in the mean time.

Also, that's why this is important:
Math's take on 824 in 845 was after his first JJH vote, and immediately preceding the interaction between JJH and the_worst that NSG thought was scum theater (which led to TW voting JJH).
Math was on JJH early, then moved to TW after TW voted JJH, then back to JJH when momentum picked up, which gave me some suspicion that he might be the bus vote. However, 845 struck me as townier since I felt it was a much harder condemnation of a scum-bro than I'd normally expect.
I didn't want to say it out loud (yet) but I was okay implying it, because I wanted to see what ruru and ofhrz thought without biasing their opinions.

If Math is green then question is was he buddying both math and dave or just buddying math while meta-town-reading his scum buddy.

[Zoronos]

It's hard to white knight someone who's universally townread my man

I was referring to JJH's early vote on Blackstar for voting me (the one that got NSG onto his trail).
The 'everyone town reads Zor' wasn't quite as solid back then, so there was theoretically more equity in being loud about it.

[Zoronos]

Ofrhz, don't tell anyone else, but I secretly scum read you. That's why I claimed hypo-inno. To throw them off my tracks.
Don't tell Ofrhz especially, I need to hide my secret read from her.

Wait.
Shit.

[Zoronos]

Why would the third scum have been on TW?
They didn't want the buss on him to go through.
In jjh's case there was some "testing the waters".
Had the wagon formed more strongly somewhere else, TW could've jumped off permanently, but once he had been on long enough and I had howled for his lynch for days, he wanted to not risk it.

There were only two votes on TW, one of which was yours; there couldn't have been three scum on him because two is less than three. Unless you want to claim scum, which seems unlikely. Are you referring to the earlier wagon where you, JJH, and Math were voting TW before Math hopped back to JJH? Which would have implied both Math and JJH were preparing to bus the worst?


You didn't really answer the question I posed, so I was going to rephrase it slightly for the sake of discussion, and I'll include it here for the sake of posterity, but your reads coloration makes it OBE.

Spoiler: rephrase

For the sake of this discussion let's grant that TW is lock-scum. So, he was bussing JJH, and his discussion that NSG called attention to with JJH (after Math indicated JJH suspicion in the thread) was scum theater. Bam, cool, scum the worst caught.
In such a world, do you think TW+JJH's partner would also be on the JJH wagon or off-wagon somewhere?

Here's the pre-claim VC, using your reads-coloring:

1181 + a couple votes not captured on the VC

Jjh927

(6):

northsidegal

,

the worst

,

pinturicchio

, ruru,

Mathdino

, BlackStar, (+

Zoronos

declaring intent to hammer)
HeWhoSwims (2): davesaz, ofrhz

the worst

(2):

HitAlt

,

jjh927

davesaz (1):

Zoronos

Not Voting:

Something_Smart

, HeWhoSwims

This heavily suggests you believe both scum were on the wagon prior to the claim.

[Zoronos]

There are 3 people in the nsg quote.
worst wagon, hitalt wagon (was there even a hitalt wagon?); was jjh early or late on said wagons... or maybe on, off, back on?

Spoiler: lots of vote links

JJH's votes were 11-TW, 17-me, 41-Pintu, 59-Blackstar (this is where NSG started turning up the heat, 102, but she left the wagon to go after ofhrz), 573-Pintu, 647-TW

The Worst wagon started from HitAlt in 277, blackstar joined in 279, then Blackstar leaves in 367, JJH joins in 647, Ofrhz joins in 764 and leaves in 871, Math joins in 930 then leaves in 1075. Ofrhz joins in 1209 during the 5-vote stall on JJH, then leaves post-claim.

JJH wagon restarted from zero votes due to MD in 530, ruru came aboard in 541 (VC for this post 565), then left in 649, Math leaves in 790 to vote Pintu leaving the wagon at 0. NSG restarts it at 809, Math at 838, TW at 862 (this is the region that NSG indicated as possible scum theater), Math leaves at 930 to vote TW, Pintu joins in 999 (VC at 1010), ruru rejoins at 1018, Math rejoins in 1075. We stall until Blackstar puts him at L-1 in 1231 and I declare intent in 1235.

So to answer your questions:
1) There was never a hitalt wagon.
2) JJH was middle to the worst-wagon but he camped on it while events swirled about. The wagon never grew past 3 players until after the fake-claim, but during the great-lynch-split that was the second biggest wagon for a while.
3) JJH was not under significant pressure when he voted the worst; he was at 2 votes, and ruru left two posts later leaving him at 1. It was also static pressure; he had been at those same two votes for about 90 posts. His Pintu read only got minor blowback (one question, from Blackstar, which never got answered but turned into a JJH vs Blackstar semi-mutual-scumread discussion), but that was his movement (pintu -> the worst). Based on locality, his vote was right after HitAlt's re-iteration of his case 642.

Based on that information, is there anything further you can say about our current game-state?
Do you think the hop-on from JJH was scum-following-scum, scum-opportunistically-following-town, or premature bus?

[Zoronos]

Had the wagon formed more strongly somewhere else, TW could've jumped off permanently, but once he had been on long enough and I had howled for his lynch for days, he wanted to not risk it.

Are you sure about this? After just doing the legwork for Dave's question, there's a 70 post sequence where there were only two votes on JJH-> NSG and TW. TW posted in that interstitial period. Instead he reiterates it in 961, Pintu joins in 999 to take the wagon back to three.
Do you think that TW figured he still had time to leave at that point and didn't anticipate the acceleration that would happen over the next ~80 posts, or just decide to say fuck it and keep the bus chugging along?
Worst had only hopped aboard in 862, but then went through the NSG-flagged-theater region. Was that theater the double-down? Because he was only at vote 3 at the time. Think the scum got antsy and felt a need to suddenly distance?

[Zoronos]

are you literally just trying to suggest that all 3 scum are in {MD, TW, pintu}?

Two scum. There are only two scum left.
JJH is ded.

[Zoronos]

leaving HWS black and greening yourself is giving me a headache. are you literally just trying to suggest that all 3 scum are in {MD, TW, pintu}?

1) On reflection, do you think forgetting HWS is an un-CC’ed pr is more or less likely from scum here, or just meaningless?
2) it’s not the worst lynchpool I’ve seen, but I’m not sure it fits with JJH’s actions from yesterday. I’ve had some lingering suspicion on all those people, so it’s not outside the realm of “why would any town suspect X???”

What’s your stance on Dave? I want to see if he does anything with that legwork / questions I did for him / asked him.

[Zoronos]

TW:
What is your opinion on dave? I asked above but think it may have gotten lost in the shuffle.

I'm pondering the lynch pool for today, given that ruru has a strong town read on Math, I feel like I'm narrowing in on best available option and am curious what you think.

[Zoronos]

my read on Dave literally fluctuates so much

he hasn't been very useful and I'm really not convinced I have a reason to townread him outside his indignation that he should be townread based on meta.

I want Hit today if I can get him but I'll compromise on Dave.

So, I noticed something about HitAlt, and I'm curious what you think.
His early play seems openly survivalistic. Not even concealed or subtle, just open 'I want to live'.
However, that seemed to change around 1660 / during D2.

Do you think this is alignment indicating, playstyle, or simply reflective of emotional state?

[Zoronos]

This heavily suggests you believe both scum were on the wagon prior to the claim

And there you have it.
And the switch in votes implicates...?
And I started to lean scum after my reread on..?

Personally, I think the swaps in votes between the pre-claim wagon and the post-claim wagon are not particularly indicating of anything other than who was in the thread. A lot of people were actively holding off voting because NSG asked for a no-hammer until she could post things (then Math hammered anyway).

Also, I'm not really sure who you're referring to here with the start-to-lean-scum on. Care to fill me in? Are you referring to Pintu?

[Zoronos]

I thought it was TW but then maybe HitAlt and I'm not really sure any more.
Did that vote timing research reveal anything?

[Zoronos]

>.<

[Zoronos]

Reading upside down posting makes my head hurt.

[Zoronos]

I’m at the gym so can’t do lylo math but I’m pretty sure we’re more than one day out with only two scum left?

[Zoronos]

Yeah, we’re 8+2 so even a mis-vig we’re 5+2 -> 3+2.
We’re worst case two days out.

[Zoronos]

Not going to best around the bush here, this plan seems actively stupid and makes me want to lynch Math.

[Zoronos]

Getting answers from Dave and HitAlt is like pulling teeth and I understand frustration at how slow they’re playing, but suboptimal claiming doesn’t seem like a good answer to random boredom.

[Zoronos]

I’m about to drive home from the gym and deleted a rather caustic reply because I’m having a shitty day.
I’ll write you a longer thing in a bit.
TLDR: I am happy to have a discussion with you, you’re misunderstanding what I actually want from you via-a-vis cases, and I’m trying to get answers from HitAlt and Dave because I’m at coin flip and I don’t like being at coin flip.
I realize you’re impatient and that’s frustrating, and the two of them play slower / have lower availability than the rest of us. I’m trying to sort them before I vote. It’s not because I am trying to burden you or want something from you.

[Zoronos]

I realize I play anti-meta wrt votes on this site.
I don’t apologize for it, but I do apologize that I can cause frustration unnecessarily.

[Zoronos]

I realize I play anti-meta wrt votes on this site.
I don’t apologize for it, but I do apologize that I can cause frustration unnecessarily.

If you're the kind of player afraid to vote, you should be pressuring people with FoSs or reads lists to make it clear your take matters

Explaining this is best done post game.
But it tells me a lot about our disconnect if you believe I haven’t been FoS’ing people or trying to reads list usefully.

[Zoronos]

What's the point of 1852?

I thought it was a funny sequence

Funny haha or funny someone's scummy?

Funny haha

Really? I read it as you FoS'ing ofrhz.

[Zoronos]

Thanks for answers.
Why hasn't anyone commented either way on the case itself?

Probably because nobody knows who you're casing or what the case is.
So: Who the hell are you casing and what is the case?

[Zoronos]

The above post is directed at Zor

We don't have the votes to lynch Hitalt right now because NO ONE IS VOTING

I would like more discussion on pintu vs Hitalt but again NO ONE IS VOTING

I'm actually scumreading pintu more than Hitalt as of now
But Hitalt incessantly tunneling TW/me makes me feel less bad about potentially mislynching him

I'm trying to puzzle HitAlt vs Dave.
If you look at the legwork for Dave I did last night, a few things struck me:
1) That when JJH got to two votes, he immediately voted Pintu, without really any casing or explanation.
2) He moved his vote to the_worst when still at two votes but before their argument. If the two of these things, I'd think the worst was more likely to be distancing than Pintu, so that makes me less inclined to think Pintu is the partner.
3) HitAlt was basically on the_worst yesterday and anyone that mildly defended or redirected away from the_worst (notably me and NSG). I'm trying to pry his thought process slightly out of that viewpoint to give a read that's not contingent on the_worst and it's difficult but it's what I'm working on.
4) I think HitAlt's argument that the_worst got stuck on a bus isn't great, because as noted there were ample opportunities to leave. So maybe he bussed on purpose, but 'stuck on the bus' was not where the_worst was at.
5) I forget what (5) was going to be but I had a (5). Something about dave being really odd.

[Zoronos]

Dammit I really wish I had a neighbour this game
I feel like I'm playing with my hands tied behind my back

I would love to be neighbors.
I actually used to pride myself on strong neighbor-play (though my site referred to it as 'Unconfirmed Masons' instead of neighbors, but mechanically identical)
I also had a running joke called 'spoiler masons' where we'd just talk in spoiler tags and pretend it was secret.

It's a lot easier to play cards-on-the-table. It's just not always pro-town.

[Zoronos]

What leads you to this conclusion?

[Zoronos]

Well, since you're just going to +1 HitAlt's case after all that and refuse to explain, let's go to the end of day vote:
I'm going to go ahead and color this from your perspective.

1181 + a couple votes not captured on the VC

Jjh927

(6):

northsidegal

,

the worst

, pinturicchio, ruru, Mathdino, BlackStar, (+Zoronos declaring intent to hammer)

HeWhoSwims

(3):

davesaz

, ofrhz, BlackStar,

the worst

(2): HitAlt,

jjh927

,

davesaz

(1): Zoronos,

Not Voting:

Something_Smart, HeWhoSwims

a) Does this make sense?
b) Where's the third scum?

[Zoronos]

Pintu: Why did you ask about a framer at EoD pre-flip yesterday?

[Zoronos]

Real answer or handy wavey answer?

[Zoronos]

Because I think the honest answer has a high chance of being anti-town, so I am giving you an opportunity to decide if you want me to divulge it or not.

[Zoronos]

Sorry, I should have quoted:

Why you ask?

The answer to this.
But on the retrospect, it's probably better off not answered, so nevermind.

If you want the answer, feel free to call it in whenever.

[Zoronos]

VOTE: the worst

[Zoronos]

This game's awful

I think the relevant question right now is what caused the game stall at EOD yesterday; both scum on wagon and lazy or both scum off wagon (or split, but if split we’re still looking at the scum on wagon being semi lazy).

The more I turn this over, the closer I arrive at MathDino’s position from yesterday.
I apologize for dragging my heels, but I think the time has arrived for wagoning and voting and such.

[Zoronos]

let's just lynch scum!

And that means lynching ????

[Zoronos]

The pre-claim game stall?

Yes.
Post claim wasn't really a stall. It was NSG asking for time and people not hammering out of respect for her request (then Math hammering anyway). That period lasted like 12 hours or so.
Scum was on the hook and at L-2. Then there was a lot of trouble getting the L-1 vote even though I repeatedly expressed willingness to hammer. I had to start canvassing for either that vote or a mutually acceptable alternative.
That's an unusual stall and implies either:
1) Scum are off wagon and happy being off wagon
2) Scum are on wagon and for some reason aren't heavy pushing the bus to harvest town cred.

[Zoronos]

Hey ofrhz, what's your read on the worst?

[Zoronos]

VOTE: the worst

Why?

Perhaps he scum.
Maybe for pressure.
Maybe to see what others do.
Who knows really.

[Zoronos]

Could mean scum are on wagon wishing that town would follow bad push by town.
This implies someone hard townreading or wking the counter.
Or scum are already comfortably townreads.

Which do you think it is?
Why did we struggle for a couple days to get that last vote?

[Zoronos]

Do you think the worst is town?

[Zoronos]

If he's scum he's probably scum with pintu

I can think of one other possible scum partner for him here, but I concede this has crossed my mind a number of times in the last day or two.

[Zoronos]

He's not going to bus himself into 3p, he doesn't think he's THAT good

I can think of three total viable scum teams for TW, but you predicated one out from this discussion for obvious reasons.
How many viable teams are you seeing for Pintu?

[Zoronos]

Uh OK then list all the viable scumteams

3 possible partners is low
In the span of one day night cycle, 1 can be lynched, 1 can be copped, and 1 can be killed

Oh, I agree.
Math+TW -> predicated out for obvious reasons in your eyes
Blackstar+TW (I re-read JJH's iso this morning and think there's an outside chance of some 'deepwolfing' here, to steal NSG's phrase. He's still largely in my town pile, but I've been blindspotting him for a while)
Pintu+TW

The triple decker bus, while unlikely, is I guess possible but I try to live in the world of the probable rather than the world of the possible.

[Zoronos]

Hmm

Zoro you mentioned playing on another site right?

Do you mind linking a scumgame from there

I apologize, but I can't do such a thing.

a) I don't like talking about its existence because it's private.
b) It's invite only authentication locked so I can't show you a game even if I wanted to without inviting you to the site permanently, which as much as I like you, I probably won't.
c) My scum game is crap. I can tell you my scum meta but we're in an alignment sensitive context so you'd have to decide whether to believe me already, which would make it NAI.

[Zoronos]

How smart is TW when he's scum about picking up crumbs and shooting them?

[Zoronos]

I have an inno on blackstar so understand that I'm going to be biased here
There's no universe where it makes sense for me to vote TW

If it makes you feel more comfortable, I can request a copcheck on myself assuming I'm not the cop

I am not in a position where I feel a need to publicly dictate cop checks.
Also, I understand your inno statement on blackstar, and as noted he was in my townpile until recently based on his D1 play, so my urge to lynch him is very low.
But I would like to publicly state my updated blind spot based on the re-read of JJH and the EoD events yesterday. So, there you go.

Basically the world where Blackstar is scum is that either he got nervous about the 'no busses' strategy and cracked early or saw Dave's willingness to be the -1 and so hopped on to harvest the town cred.
I think balance of probability still indicates town blackstar, but he was in my 'lock town take to lylo without hestitation' pile before, and now I have a hesitation.

[Zoronos]

At least I didn't notice anyone passively crumb
Cryptographic crumbs are tough and I think I'm the only one here who checks for those as scum

I was actually thinking more about behavioral tells.
That's how I PR hunt. Maybe calling them crumbs is an abuse of vocabulary.

[Zoronos]

Help me flip pintu

I want to be vague but you're making it difficult.

[Zoronos]

Jah, I was getting a vig vibe from Pintu near EOD D1.
A couple things since have reinforced that notion and him shooting S_S is very meta level zero.

(Vig if you’re not Pintu don’t fucking claim here just to prove me wrong)

[Zoronos]

I got bored of being vague.

[Zoronos]

Here I was going to claim you were the vig, lol

If that's something to consider, then we lynch Hitalt

If I were the big, I’d have holstered.

[Zoronos]

Yesterday D1 or yesterday literal yesterday?

[Zoronos]

Sorry, uh, what?

[Zoronos]

Could mean scum are on wagon wishing that town would follow bad push by town.
This implies someone hard townreading or wking the counter.
Or scum are already comfortably townreads.

Which do you think it is?
Why did we struggle for a couple days to get that last vote?

Part of that's on me thinking HWS was scum.
You'd have to ask some other people why they didn't move for several days.

So, with the powers of hindsight and a red flip, what do you think it is?

[Zoronos]

VOTE: Pintu

[Zoronos]

Notice how incredibly little that chatterbox duckling has talked about pintu

..and this is complete BS. I said this already too: if they were scum together, it would be so much fun for them to fake interaction in game, that they would def. go overboard with it, more likely than avoid it.

Thinking this is Math+TW, or where exactly is your head at?

I feel like even when I put my vote on the_worst the other people that suspected him were zzz on the matter and the wagon got nuked.
Nobody else had any enthusiasm for it, even once we had a couple votes.

[Zoronos]

Bryan Adams? Really?
Isn't that from Prince of Thieves? That movie was not great.

[Zoronos]

Well this game got weird really quick.

[Zoronos]

I take umbrage at the notion that I'm lazy town.
I'm lazy scum.
Wait, no uhh motivated town. Yeah...
Nobody saw that.

[Zoronos]

Wrong way we got here, but not a wrong assessment of the situation.
We’re basically here because of a wide consensus on who is towny and who is ???? based on earlier play.

Some of those reads could be wrong, but you’ll need to convince people that’s the case.

[Zoronos]

Why again are we letting dave go right now

Math thinks he's town, he's still in my lynchpool if I'm significantly wrong here.
It's a debate we can have but I'm reasonably okay with either of the two primary choices here.

[Zoronos]

Why again are we letting dave go right now

To keep quoting the same post:
Sell me.
Why is Dave the right choice here?

[Zoronos]

I wish HA had voted Pintu before he left like he alluded to.
Then I could try to convince ruru to declare intent and we could ~see what happens~.

This is more fun when I can declare intent but ugh consensus building.
HEY DAVE COME JOIN THE PINTU WAGON THERE ARE PRIZES AND FUN HATS.
(disclaimer: I have lied about the prizes and fun hats)
(second disclaimer: If I'm right about the vig I'm going to laugh a lot then unvote then probably vote HA)

[Zoronos]

I lied about the fun hats.

[Zoronos]

Math’s avatar has a hat. You could steal that one. It’s probably a fun hat.

[Zoronos]

It just occurred to me.
How did the T. rex get the hat on? It’s arms don’t reach up there.
Someone must have put it up there.

[Zoronos]

pintu: Talk to me about who the scum are: Show me some earnest effort to solve the game.
Your vote is on Math, so why is Math a scumsaurus? Or talk to me about who his likely partner is?

[Zoronos]

Cool.
In case we don’t get a VC: Pintu is at -1 so there better not be any ‘oops’ hammers.

[Zoronos]

> claims to crack the game open
> sorts PR really hard

DECLARE INTENT

Parse failure. Uhhh what?

[Zoronos]

> claims to crack the game open
> sorts PR really hard

DECLARE INTENT

Parse failure. Uhhh what?

[Zoronos]

Oh, softs PR.
This is why I should post from my phone during workouts. No blood for braining.

[Zoronos]

Should not post.
Also that sounded bad.
I have caught a case of stupid today. I'm sorry.

[Zoronos]

I think you're being a little hard on dave there; declaring intent and actually throwing the hammer are pretty different activities.
Given that Pintu was basically at the claim-post regardless and was saying he wanted a chance to type / interact in-real-time during claim, declaration of intent is superfluous; it only serves to prompt the claim that Pintu stated he was going to make anyway.

[Zoronos]

Struck me as NAI if anything.
*shrug*

[Zoronos]

Pew pew secret day SK kill Daveasz pew pew
Wait I already did that.
Shit I’m bad at being an SK.

[Zoronos]

Disagree, there are 7 solid hypo innos currently

Also he obviously only picked blackstar cuz 2 other people did
I'm peeved Zoronos was so set on him being the cop

I never said he was the cop.
I thought he might have been the vig.

[Zoronos]

So, Math, has your opinion on Pintu’s alignment changed, or do you still feel he’s scum?

[Zoronos]

I’m surprised you mixed up my take on Pintu’s role.
But given his claim, you were right, he is either VT or scum.

I expected a claim there. Though long ago I once joked with someone that “give me a minute to write up my claim” was synonymous with “please wait, crafting lies...”

But scum-Pintu really has no choice here, he must claim VT. The probability of winning if he dies but exposes a PR is much lower than if he claims VT and possibly lives.

HitAlt: do you think Pintu is town or scum here? I feel like your last post implied the latter but I’m not super clear.

[Zoronos]

It doesn't matter sorting pintu right now imo
We have support for him in a way that we don't elsewhere, and he's our 3rd claim today

a) I'm not sure that's specifically true.
Both because I intend to keep an open mind so if what he comes back with is exceptionally towny I'd unvote and because it is entirely possible we could achieve another consensus alternative lynch in the time we have.
Most of my town reads are present and voting in my lynch pool and that suggests to me we're not boxed into specifically Pintu if he reveals a suddenly towny mindset.

b) I'm not sure where you get to 3rd claim, even counting HitAlt's implicit claim.
But I also don't care and am not sure it's conducive to finding scum to debate it.

c) I think getting other people more clearly on record before we move to a flip is helpful for future days.
My initial reaction to that HitAlt post was 'Huh, HitAlt is scum reading Pintu now, or at least predicting a scum flip'. But there's enough ambiguity in that post I'd like to clarify that is in fact what he intended.

[Zoronos]

Pintu:
If I were just going off JJH associations, I'd say HitAlt or Blackstar would be more likely partners than Dino.
If you look back at the discussion with JJH, I asked him to give a read on Dave and Math around post 825 ish, then asked Math to give a take on the results in 845
Re-reading that sequence is part of why I pushed Math back out of my neutral bucket during mid-day today (along with Ruru's take on him).

What is your opinion on HitAlt?

[Zoronos]

I guess the associated question here is: Do you feel 845 was legit, or distancing by Math?
Also, soon after 845 was when the discussion between TW and JJH occurred that led JJH to vote TW and which NSG flagged as possible theater.

[Zoronos]

And by JJH voting TW I mean TW voting JJH. Because I am dumb.

[Zoronos]

Is ofrhz non-mechanically sortable in this game

I'm leaning town now, but in the "d1 guessesreads" sense except it's d2

I believe so, yes.
I am of a strong belief that ofrhz is town.

Also, I have an inno on her. So clearly

[Zoronos]

Also, Pintu, you're never going to convince math that he is scum.
Nobody is so cool they convince someone "Yup, I'm the scum /selfvote".
Maybe you can post him into a corner, but you do that by talking to the rest of us, not arguing at Math.

Anyway:

1. Zor: at that point 845 didn't ping me, but I believe what Dino has tried to do this whole game is like "being the reincarnation" of NSG. NSG died, revealed VT, Dino has been saying loud and clear that it was obvious that NSG was VT and that he has been following NSG' reads the whole game. It's a psichological way to make us believe he's town by making us complete the blank spaces between "NSG confirmed town --> Mathdino confirmed town". So yeah, Mathdino going on jjh when he was being focused by NSG means to me that Dino understood that jjh wasn't having a good game and it was time to get some credit. Timing is important: remember Dino's firsts impressions on jjh? It changed drastically after some time.
About HitAlt: I think that if we flip scum!Dino it basically confirms both me and HitAlt as town. I feel he's likely in the same situation I am, so yeah sure he could be partners with jjh, but so could ofrhz or ruru, but we're not pushing them 'cause they seem to be town. HitAlt doesn't have that much towncred because of his tunneling on D1; same as me, bad D1 ---> push them hard.

You maybe missed my intent.
845 was a condemnation of JJH by Math. Was that distancing? In order for a math theory to be correct, 845 must be either distancing or busing. You didn't really answer me about that.

Double-anyway. so, you think HitAlt is town. Let's move into the land where Math is town, and Blackstar is ???.
Based on your answer to Math, you believe that Blackstar + TW is the scum team. That would put them both on the bus, NSG's arguments about TW+JJH's discussion after 845 being scum theater correct. How does Blackstar tie into this? He was the L-1 vote after being on the HWS wagon. That would mean both scum were busing, the worst early and blackstar late.
This narrative would require that TW early boarded the bus, and instead of also joining that Blackstar waited until it looked inevitable (dave declared he was willing to be the -1 and Blackstar headed him off at the pass). Do you find this world reasonable or unreasonable?

[Zoronos]

I really don't see another lynch happening

Come now, that's a tad reductive.
This is by far the towniest Pintu's posted all game, even if he's doing so under maximum pressure.

[Zoronos]

Stop it. This is exactly what I'm talking about. I've seen scum-pintu literally request to get vigged and then start a massive end-of-day discussion when he was at maximum pressure.

Scum-pintu is townier under pressure. I'll accept a HitAlt lynch (even though I think he's definitely townier), but we're not pulling more claims.

If I accept this supposition, then there is no eventuality where Pintu is not lynched.
"Pintu is posting scummy" -> "Pintu is scum for posting scummy, lynch him"
"Pintu is posting towny" -> "Pintu is scum for posting towny, lynch him"

If all roads lead to pintu being scum, then somewhere there is a flaw in the logic.

[Zoronos]

If pintu flips green and there's a vig miss it's 10 vs 2 -> 7 vs 2. Why mass claim there and not at 5 vs 2?
At 5 we still have a mislynch to give so it's not do or die with counterclaims.

[Zoronos]

Nevermind I am bad at math. It is currently 8 vs 2 -> 5 vs 2.

[Zoronos]

Why?

[Zoronos]

Tell u tmrw

That doesn't do me much good if we're debating lynching Pintu now. >.<

[Zoronos]

Tell u tmrw

That doesn't do me much good if we're debating lynching Pintu now. >.<

WE'RE NOT DEBATING WHETHER TO LYNCH HIM

literally all i have to do to lynch him right now is be like "hey ruru/TW, can you put him at L-1 for pressure please?" and then lolhammer

I'm *pretty* sure we're doing exactly that, and I still get a vote in whether that happens.
No matter how many times you repeat it doesn't make it true.

[Zoronos]

you're currently voting pintu so you're doing a great job continuing to deliberate aren't you

there are 6 players other than you willing to vote pintu

i don't understand why you never seem to consider what lynches are possible/realistic

I have a variety of unconstructive answers to this. But I will refrain from them because they are unconstructive.

a) There are achievable lynches other than Pintu. HitAlt, for example.
b) Balance of probability still suggests Pintu is scum, imo, so yes my vote is still there. That is not a permanent state and due consideration of alternatives is never a waste.
c) There is value in committing opinions to paper in the case that we are collectively wrong. I am voting Pintu because I found ruru's case convincing and because of the discussion he and I had at daystart. I believe he has been engaging in an extended active lurk and is ergo likely scum. If the_worst has an 'ah ha' for why he's scum, I'd like to hear it. Maybe you have decided TW is clearly town, but I'm not completely sold on the notion yet and would like that data written in case we're wrong about Pintu.

So, yeah, what I am doing right now is deliberation.

[Zoronos]

I'm town reading ruru for reasons unrelated to a Pintu scumflip.

[Zoronos]

Who?

[Zoronos]

No. Do you want to know why I'm town reading ruru?

[Zoronos]

Huh?

[Zoronos]

Well, that's the worst replacement we could have gotten.

[Zoronos]

I'm disappointed you won't tell me your super secret reason Pintu is lock scum.

[Zoronos]

If you don't trust me to have a hypo-inno on ofrhz, go back and read JJH's interactions with her.
He was using her slot to white knight / chainsaw defend other players and proclaiming her obvious towniness when she was the largest wagon.

Unless there's some very clever reverse-psycho scum meta going on there, I think she's probably town.

[Zoronos]

Errr... chain saw defending her slot to attack other players.
You know what I mean! I'm communicating poorly.

[Zoronos]

*shrug*

I feel like "scum don't chainsaw defend scum" is a form of "too scummy to be scum"

I would normally agree, but it wasn’t a simple chainsaw. He wasn’t just attacking ofhrz’s attackers, he was loudly proclaiming she was town.

*shrug*
There’s a ‘too blatant to be scum’ element to it, yeah. But there’s a spectrum here, and that was *really* blatant.