Micro 815: Greatest Idea - Game Over

[Micc]

Kill: LaserGuy

LaserGuy has been killed Day 1. He was a

One-Shot Unlynchable Alien

.

Day 1 will continue with the votecount reset.

Votecount 1.02

Not Voting (8) -

brassherald, Not_Mafia, ceejayvinoya, GeminiTwin12, guacamole, RadiantCowbells, Ircher, Hiraki

With 8 players alive it takes 5 votes to lynch.

The deadline for Day 1 is in (expired on 2018-07-30 20:20:00).

[Ircher]

That went well, much better than I expected.
I like the CJ case and townread RC so:
VOTE: CJ

[RadiantCowbells]

Contrary to popular belief I am good at this game

The strength of my feeling about CJ is significantly weaker than about laserguy so let's let him respond and such

[Hiraki]

One of Gemini and guac is scum btw. Willing to bet money on that.

Care to explain?

VOTE: Ircher

Which one is the partner!

[Hiraki]

I also want to hear the why Hiraki discarded Mason because It can be useful potentially having someone else you can trust and to discuss with. Guacamole's discard feels like it has town motivation. And RC's discard places them as being most likely town. (At this moment, I'd put RC & Guacamole as being most likely town)

Keyword right in there - potentially. Mason comes up 4 times in the 76 card list. I had to decide the probability of:

A) Someone else getting another mason card (so taking out mine, that's now a 3/73 chance - just around 4%)
B) Someone else having the same thought logic of me using a mason (unquantifiable but generally low)

Effectively, this shot is LOW. These aren't X-shot masons either from what I've read (which admittedly is not too much) so the above is consistent.

Vote: Guacamole

Willing to put N_M in the not Alien jar.

RC's discard is pretty unlikely to be coming from scum. It's a strong card for any anti-Town role, especially for a player who has a reputation for being dangerous as scum and is likely to be policy checked. Why do you think this is a good place to vote?

This is just bad talking in general. Most of Laser's play is very readable as "I know what I'm saying" and "I'm bullshitting"

[guacamole]

That was odd but nice.

Someone explain to Hiraki how unlikely it is that someone choosing a non-town alignment would discard a role that makes cops insane.

[RadiantCowbells]

Gemini you wouldn't have rolled scum would you?

[Hiraki]

Why ask a question if you know the answer?

[RadiantCowbells]

Is that @me

[GeminiTwin12]

@RC thankfully not

[Hiraki]

Actually, it was.

[ceejayvinoya]

I doubt you can pull town motivations out of discards. Anyone who chooses their cards would select the one that they feel is most useful. I'm only going to call it towny if the discard is a particularly strong card for a non-town alignment, like Mafia Godfather.

VOTE: cj

Think this is scum discrediting perfectly good reasoning to keep the Lynch pool open.

This is a bit of a reach. Do you agree with Gemini then? that Guacamole's discard is town motivated?

[brassherald]

Ceejay, are you maintaining that the only way to pull town motivations from discards is if there are strong non-town role discards?

[guacamole]

Some probability numbers, rounded to whole number percentages. Deck composition counted manually so I could have made errors. Might have rounded up instead of down somewhere but I don't have all day to be extremely precise.

These are the initial draw 3 probabilities. It is also possible to calculate the draw 2 probabilities of remaining hands by adjusting the deck for the discards.
This is a single drawn hand and does not reflect the effect of consumption of cards by the other hands. -- the percentages will be overstated compared to the actual distribution.

Probability calculator

Town cards: 55%
Other cards: 45%

p(0 non-town) 16% = p(3 town)
p(1 non-town) 41% = p(2 town)
p(2 non-town) 33% = p(1 town)
p(3 non-town) 9% = p(0 town)

Analysis: A non-town discard means the original hand was in the 84% of hands which had at least one non-town card. Of those, 41/84 had only the one non-town card, which is 48% of the possible 1+ non-town hands. 52% of the 1+ non-town hands have another non-town, and only 11% of the non-town discards have an all non-town hand to start with.

Analysis 2: Since the player's preferences factor into the discard and choice of alignment, these percentages can only serve as a guide to what was the probable hand composition. The probable choice of alignment is augmented by the ability that was discarded.

Analysis 3: I don't have a feel for AI-ness of what people think about the discards because I don't know their math foundation.

[guacamole]

An interesting corollary is that the probability of non-town cards remaining in a hand is higher if the discard is town.

[RadiantCowbells]

Why ask a question if you know the answer?

Actually, it was.

i didn't know the answer.

there's a difference between knowing that gemini is going to say somehting along the lines of not being scum and knowing what she is going to say and the difference can be meaningful

[RadiantCowbells]

VOTE: Not_mafia

historically has always picked scum in these games and we know for a fact that he had the option of picking scum based on his discard + he is lurking

[RadiantCowbells]

and, like

the dude doesn't decide to finally play town in a game with me.

[Ircher]

VOTE: Guacomole

That isn't getting us anywhere.

[RadiantCowbells]

okay so it's pretty useless, i agree

why is it scum

why are we not powerlynching NM who is basically confirmed scum

[brassherald]

An interesting corollary is that the probability of non-town cards remaining in a hand is higher if the discard is town.

How is this interesting? This is something we all know.

The actual percentages are new but I maintain as I have that statistics are for garbage people.

The thing is, I don't trust how hard you are selling this probability thing when anyone with a few free seconds to consider it knew the basic concept. I notice you discarded a non-town role, and this reads LAMIST to me.

VOTE: Guacamole

And before anyone goes into buzz words are bad which I keep seeing, I will respond to anyone complaining about Buzz words with "BEES!" You have been warned.

PEDIT: I think N_M let out his town tell.

[RadiantCowbells]

what the fuck

are all 3 of you scum or something

[RadiantCowbells]

N_M has an ultraconsistent record of picking scum in these games

he is confirmed to have had the option of picking scum

he

never

decides that the game with me is the game to start randomly picking town

why is this being ignored in favor of a wagon on someone who is obviously town?

[Ircher]

okay so it's pretty useless, i agree

why is it scum

why are we not powerlynching NM who is basically confirmed scum

I honestly don't think NM is scum here. Or at the very least, his discard indicates he isn't as likely to be scum.

[RadiantCowbells]

like bull fucking shit you saw his towntell