Open 734: Paris Mafia (13-player variation) - Game Over

[Eragon]

Who the fuck is Dark Shadow?

And yeah, Thor is the towniest person in this game.

Joke based on my avi

[Eragon]

Why are we having Thor shoot Fink or IV instead.of Fink or GL?

Or should we give him a threeway choice?

True

[Fink]

If Thor shoots Eragon, tomorrow it's 3 VT vs 2 goons vs 1 mime
we lynch Thor
either
3 VT v 1 goon
No Lynch
2v1 LYLO
OR (ideal for Mafia, and they just need to shoot town read)
1 VT v 1 goon v 1 mime
Mimes have lost, day goes to deadline with no lynch locked in, Mafia shoots, wins

And statistically don't towns do WAY worse than the hypothetical 50% in 2v1 LYLO?

[Fink]

err 2v1v1 but still that's probably better for Mafia than 2v1

[Eragon]

Mafia(Thor) knows that if they kill me, mafia WILL lose unless they shoot mime

If they break the deal, and we don't have a chance, kingmake mime over mafia IMO.

This gives mafia incentive to both further their wincon and ours

[Fink]

Actually, why would Thor make the NK?

If the buddy is GL, I'm already pushing on GL, I feel like GL has more suspicion overall than Thor, who wasn't getting much. Ditto for Aristo. IV may not have been around, but I just found an old KMD game where in the scum thread one scum submitted an action for the other and he was okay with it.

So that pushes me in the direction of Jingle.

[Fink]

Argh

[Fink]

If Mime successfully RBed a killing role, vig or scum, on N2, they'd have repeated the same thing on N3. But they didn't. So FA_Q2 was probably vigged by Nero and shot by Mafia at the same time.

[Fink]

Which, on reread, makes me want to lynch GL more again, damn it.

[Eragon]

Urgh I really don't want to lynch anyone, but if we are taking a risk might as well go for it

I'm way to paranoid to lynch GL/Fink though

[Eragon]

You know what

If we think mime was on lane's wagon

Fink is mime

(Or jingle, but I don't see mime jingle coming up with the plans for mime loss)

[Fink]

I think there's no way Thor commits the kill with IV as the scumbuddy. IV isn't the partner who is going to coast to victory if Thor takes the fall. Plus Thor looks somewhat Mimey anyway, so that was going well for him.

[Fink]

I would lynch GL or Jingle

[Eragon]

My only problem is if jingle actually is town, then he’s the person I think can win in a MyLo LyLo

But I am very suspicious, as neither mime nor mafia has visited hin

[Eragon]

Do you think mime voted lane?

[Fink]

In my mind this is like 50-50 at this point, and I'm happy to just take that risk today, I don't think it really matters to stretch it out.

[Fink]

Do you think mime voted lane?

I don't think that's a sure thing either way. This kind of thing is why VCA is usually useless.

[Eragon]

VOTE: Jingle

I go against my brain here

Gut don’t lead me wrong

[Eragon]

If this is right, we win


If this is wrong, we might lose, but we have kingmaking powers,so mafia/mime need to be careful

[Fink]

But I am very suspicious, as neither mime nor mafia has visited hin

I'd forgotten about this, but it's actually a really good point. You'd think he would be a good NK target if he were town, and it fits with the Thor doing the kill thing.

VOTE: Jingle

[Fink]

Also I'm somewhat trusting Aristo's mimeread of GL, I don't agree, but I'm probably not thinking clearly there.

[Eragon]

This is L-2

I am taking any more votes from here as intention to hammer

[Eragon]

This lynch decides the fate of the game one way or another.

WILL TOWN BE CROWNED KING?

OR WILL TOWN CROWN THE KING?

[Eragon]

Find out more, when I wake up tommorow

[GuiltyLion]

Jingle is like the most likely to be town this is a bad lynch

Wait. Wait. Wait.

808 is wrong.

1v1v4 going into night.

Mime has a 1/4 to target mafia (eragon confirmed not mafia).

Eragon has a 1/5 to target the same mafia.

That's a 1/20 that we find the last mafia and win. In the case that that is true, we'd probably lynch the mafia over the mime anyway, so mime is already screwed.

On the other hand, there's a 4/5 that Eragon targets not the mafia. That's a 4/20 for Eragon to get a confirmed Not-Mafia. This leaves us with 1v1v4 with two people who can't be lynched. Mime has a 25% chance of being lynched there, but no chance of being shot, because mafia has to kill Eragon. We also can't no lynch for the rest of the game, meaning the mime can just stop the kill. This maximizes the number of times we have to lynch, which is 100% the goal of the mime. And almost certainly worth the 5% chance of both Eragon and the mime targeting mafia.

Suspicions of me boil down to three things:

I'm still alive.
Why does Thor kill?
Bad associatives with Thor.

There's three reasons I'm still alive. I accidentally VT slipped on D2 in a way that mafia almost certainly caught, two I was an obvious watcher target for most of the game, and three I was very very clearly not the mime since pretty much the page I replaced in.

Assuming Thor made the kill because he was the less townread of the two assumes two things: 1. The missing kill was not due to the mime hitting the mafia and 2. The mafia weren't using their less suspect member to avoid the roleblock. If I had been scum I would 100% have been making the kills because I would assume I wouldn't get roleblocked. Again, because I was an obvious watcher target. In b4 WIFOM, but it's really not a difficult leap to make.

The associatives with Thor bit I really can't argue down, except to say that I don't think they're half as damning as you think they are when you step back from the red colored lens of me already being suspicious.

I'm so bleeding heart town in this game that it's actually kind of sad I have to make this post.

I find this fairly convincing ^