Micro 829: The Coalition [Endgame]

[northsidegal]

Moderator Notes:

You are being observed.

---

Coalition 1.2
Voter	Coalition
Irrelephant11	Gamma Emerald	Chara	Irrelephant11
Chara	Chara	Irrelephant11
no lunch	no lunch	Chara	Aubrey
Aubrey
aslightrain
skitter30	skitter30	no lunch
Gamma Emerald	Aubrey	Gamma Emerald	no lunch	Chara
My Milked Eek
Nukaholic
(expired on 2018-11-08 22:53:59)

Votecount 1.2
Vote Target	Wagon
Irrelephant11 (1):	no lunch (19)
no lunch (1):	Irrelephant11 (43)
Not Voting (7): Chara, Aubrey, aslightrain, skitter30, Gamma Emerald, My Milked Eek, Nukaholic
(expired on 2018-11-08 22:53:59)

[Chara]

I don’t want scum feeling comfortable and I want townreads to be hard earned. It’s my best guess as to how to win D1

i like this.

[Gamma Emerald]

@mod:

could you avoid using spoiler tags to make mobile viewing easier?

[aslightrain]

no lunch is, ironically, a player i think will be very hard to read! :>

Town ping.

Care to elaborate? I'm not sure I understand how Chara's statement (which seems to me to be little more than a reference to no lunch's mention of the all-hard-to-read coalition in the previous setup) can be so glibly ascribed to a townie mindset.) In fact, no lunch's statement doesn't really provide any kind of useful observations for the town. it's just an unsubstantiated statement, although not as unsubstantiated as your own.

On my first read-through of the exchanges between elephant and aubrey, and the interspersed comments on their exchange from others, it felt like the tension escalated rather quickly; something feels off here. I'm going to take another look at that and will report back with my updated thoughts.

in the meantime, VOTE: aslightrain (ie me) for not properly using the voting tag earlier!

[no lunch]

Interesting. I had you marked for a possible member of the scumteam, but your take on Irrelephant11 v. Aubrey TvS is something that was rolling around in the back of my mind as well.

do you have a stance to take on it, though? I like the abstract nature of your thoughts but I'm struggling to see how you're going about solving the game. Ending your suggestion that Irrelephant11 vs. Aubrey contains scum and then self-voting does not fill me with a great deal of comfort.

Also to echo skitter30's question, what is your experience with mafia?

[Aubrey]

When you’re asked the same question 3 times over, and you’ve given the answer to the person you plan to give, one tends to get annoyed. Plus expecting hard reads by page two is absolutely goofy in my eyes.

As for the pings, it’s a matter of considering role mindset, and wondering about the probability of those snips coming from town POV over scum POV. Regarding Chara, Scum don’t have to wonder about roles. They know the roles. So what’s the likelyhood of scum Chara saying what she said, and the way she said it (

unprovoked, and without a seemingly alterier motive

). In my eyes I’d expect a towny actively trying to sort ppl to say that over scum.

Now there is a possibility that she’s scum just making a joke, but that’s why we look for multiple reasons before really locking someone as town.

NL’s ping is me using the same system, but different reasoning/expectation.

[Irrelephant11]

Still on mobile so we’ll see how this goes

“Though if you do have a reason for hurting myself and the Eek without going into it I'd love to hear that as well!“
MME was the only one to not confirm, you’re my biggest scumread. I mostly use my vote to keep track of my biggest scumread at all times

“Why do you think I voted you?
Why did you choose to ignore every other part of my presence in the thread and focus on the vote? (passing a coalition is far more important than a lynch. while I agree votes carry a degree of accountability which is very valuable, I just find it strange that your focus was drawn here of all places?)”
I think you voted me for starting the game with votes and a coalition thing. I just did it for reactions (and also a little bit because scum!skitter is the only scum I have reason to be afraid of). It’s less “silly” than RVS usually is, but it *is* random. Am I right about this being why you voted me?
Also I didn’t participate in discussions about the previous game or strategies because I’ve already explained that “town should do this” on page 1/2 is more helpful to scum than town. I’d have much preferred scum had to try to figure out their own strategies than have you and others lay out some steps they could take to get townread easily.

“Scum read via Aubrey...”
Aubrey was around and I wanted to talk about my read on you

“I identified an error...”
I guess I don’t object to bringing up some basic strategies without really advocating for any of them? Idk I’m sort of stuck on how to do pro-town game theory/planning without just hinting things to scum

For the record I actually also get town pings from most of your posts so far. I’m just trying a thing where maybe I think I should scumread you for that

[Chara]

Care to elaborate? I'm not sure I understand how Chara's statement (which seems to me to be little more than a reference to no lunch's mention of the all-hard-to-read coalition in the previous setup) can be so glibly ascribed to a townie mindset.) In fact, no lunch's statement doesn't really provide any kind of useful observations for the town. it's just an unsubstantiated statement, although not as unsubstantiated as your own.

it wasn't really just a reference or a joke. it was a comment on my read on no lunch and no lunch's play making him difficult to read. and an indirect way of saying that as things stand, i wouldn't put no lunch in the coalition.

[Chara]

Aubrey's getting a minor townread. maybe a step below elephant.

holding off on aslightrain until i see more because they have

that

posting style.

[no lunch]

@Irrelephant11 out of interest, how did you get the opening & closing double quote symbols through your post while mobile posting? I much prefer them, though my mobile browser does not support it.

“Though if you do have a reason for hurting myself and the Eek without going into it I'd love to hear that as well!“
MME was the only one to not confirm, you’re my biggest scumread. I mostly use my vote to keep track of my biggest scumread at all times

Firstly, MME did confirm.

Confirm

As you're using coalition as a way of making scum nervous, I can only assume you're scumreading MME? "For not confirming" is a very poor way of pretending to have a read on somebody. I would call it poor etiquette (faux angleshooting), but much more importantly it is not an in-game read which gives us absolutely nothing with which to help sort you.

But this point is largely an issue of semantics.

“Why do you think I voted you?
Why did you choose to ignore every other part of my presence in the thread and focus on the vote? (passing a coalition is far more important than a lynch. while I agree votes carry a degree of accountability which is very valuable, I just find it strange that your focus was drawn here of all places?)”
I think you voted me for starting the game with votes and a coalition thing. I just did it for reactions (and also a little bit because scum!skitter is the only scum I have reason to be afraid of). It’s less “silly” than RVS usually is, but it *is* random. Am I right about this being why you voted me?
Also I didn’t participate in discussions about the previous game or strategies because I’ve already explained that “town should do this” on page 1/2 is more helpful to scum than town. I’d have much preferred scum had to try to figure out their own strategies than have you and others lay out some steps they could take to get townread easily.

It was actually a diversionary vote.
aslightrain's opening post heavily pinged me. I intended to allude to having a scumread forming in the thread, but did not want aslightrain's guard to be up so soon. (I've gone past this point now by pointedly questioning him, but, it stands for the opening vote).

Your volatile coalition strategy definitely has its own merits, and it's not an approach which I resent inherently. I just don't think you're actually using it to sort people.

I'll have to disagree that it's pro-scum to discuss optimal strategies for forming a day one townblock in a game which an accurate day one townblock instantly wins the game for town. But, suit yourself. If you'd like to engage me on it I'd really enjoy that but I get the feeling it's a topic you'd rather not get your hands dirty with.

“Scum read via Aubrey...”
Aubrey was around and I wanted to talk about my read on you

Have a reread of the discussion, please.

Spoiler:

Why listen to possibilities from a game you and I won’t read? For that info to matter, we’d need deeper context to fully understand and even check their claims.

Aubrey, is no lunch town? y/n

He’s the only one I have a town ping on so far.

hm.
Does that lead you to townread them or

If you don't think what I pointed out has more likelihood to come from town than scum, then say it instead of asking for a hard read.

mm I'd like to continue asking for a hard read, but thanks for the advice
does the town ping lead you toward a townread or no?

No, I clearly scumread him. I don’t understand how that is not clear. I’m not engaging with you on this any further.

wait you scumread him? That's definitely not clear, actually.
Why not engage me? Because I'm scum? Because you don't like my playstyle? Because you don't like me asking you to pin down a read? why?

If you wanted to talk about your read on me, where was your read?
You were just prodding Aubrey for a read which he had already stated to have a contrary opinion on. His reasoning was better stated than yours. He gave a very clear answer to your question. You continued to question him in a highly unproductive fashion rather than intercepting with your own contrary read.

I'm not sure this is town working on sorting in {no lunch, Aubrey} so much as scum attempting to derail an early accurate town/town read.

“I identified an error...”
I guess I don’t object to bringing up some basic strategies without really advocating for any of them? Idk I’m sort of stuck on how to do pro-town game theory/planning without just hinting things to scum

For the record I actually also get town pings from most of your posts so far. I’m just trying a thing where maybe I think I should scumread you for that

Frankly: I'm immensely comfortable with scum being aware of my strategy.
If scum is in the easily sortable players, they will effectively need to sacrifice one of their own by having a scapegoat on the coalition. In the event of a coalition failure, the onus is on town players on the coalition to provide as much content as possible to make themselves correctly townreadable. This creates a level of challenge for a player with a weaker scum game which makes it directly uncomfortable for them to play. This is advantageous, in my opinion.

If scum is in the more difficult-to-sort players, it effectively forces them to show their hand day one by either derailing a readable coalition, or clumsily forcing themselves into it.

Being a

2

v

7

setup, they are forced to constantly anti-associate themselves, anyway. So I'm not concerned about this becoming a greater challenge as a result of public speculation.

If you townread my posts but scumread me because unexplained reasons, I really struggle to feel that this is well motivated.

[no lunch]

I don’t want scum feeling comfortable and I want townreads to be hard earned. It’s my best guess as to how to win D1

i like this.

I like this on a surface level, but the more I think about it the more of an issue I'm taking with Irrelephant11's play in a greater sense.

He doesn't feel as though he is actually sorting anybody yet. There is also a level of cognitive dissonance with respect to playing the "volatile coalition" strategy (i.e. opening with a rvs coalition and hurting as he feels appropriate, to keep scum on their toes) - and then his play afterwards:
1. Scarcely touching his coalition after hurting myself and My Milked Eek (which I strongly suspect was randomly motivated).
2. His conversation with Aubrey, which reads as manipulative anyway, does not appear to have given him a read on Aubrey. For the record, I think Aubrey's ridiculing response to Irrelephant11's ridiculous questions is town-indicative. On the contrary, were I having this conversation and actually trying to advance the game, I would probably be fairly offended if I were met with ridicule.
3. His only other interaction so far has been with skitter30, who I don't believe he has had any meaningful interactions with.

It does also appear that Irrelephant11 is a player who is quite capable of swindling surface-level townreads out of players. So I intend to keep infrequent "good posts" in check.

I hope you see what I mean. If you think I'm leading myself down the garden path and just confirmation biased for the sake of it, I'd appreciate your commentary on this.
Irrelephant11's posting does present a level of incongruity which I'm finding it difficult to parse coming from town. In fact I'm rather surprised to have this level of discomfort on page 4.

[no lunch]

Aubrey's getting a minor townread. maybe a step below elephant.

holding off on aslightrain until i see more because they have

that

posting style.

Interesting - would you mind sharing a loose tiered reads list as they stand?
How do you feel about having Irrelephant11 and Aubrey both in your town spectrum (as I understand it) following their conversation?

[no lunch]

Also. The feeling regarding aslightrain is very relatable. I keep inadvertently defaulting to him being scum, and it's entirely due to his posting style.

We may need to be careful with him. It's hard to tell so far whether he is a gentle shower, or a sneaky locomotive.

[skitter30]

They did not really have a strategy. It was largely townread players I think, though by the time the coalition passed the entire list felt so exhausted I'm not Eure they still had any idea what to do with the mechanic.

i was kinda thinking that as a strategy it's a fairly decent idea; a failed coalition can function as a semi-cop-check - there has to be scum in this group of 5 players

and you want to make it easier to figure out who scum is in a failed coalition by making all the players in it easy-to-read. so you're basically trying to make a long-term (ie not coalition-based) win easier since winning the game via coalition can be tricky since scum are incentivized to act townie (and if they don't they just lose!)

ok that makes sense and i think this is a workable idea

(sorry i just needed to talk it through to myself to 'get' what you were going for)

i thinik i've only played with irrel and gamma before tho and i don't think i can read either particularly well (also chara in my second game on-site and iirc they repped out halfway thru) so i don't super have anyone that i think i can read this way in this game rn

==

Short version is idk if I really believe half the things I’ve said so far this game but I did indeed want to make everyone feel off balance

this pings me a little bit :/

==

On my first read-through of the exchanges between elephant and aubrey, and the interspersed comments on their exchange from others, it felt like the tension escalated rather quickly; something feels off here. I'm going to take another look at that and will report back with my updated thoughts.

in the meantime, VOTE: aslightrain (ie me) for not properly using the voting tag earlier!

i'd liike to hear these updated thoughts - you're leaving it a little vague atm; like you think there may be scum in irrel v aubrey but you're not really taking a stance on who it is.

like instead of saying who scum is there you self-vote; i didn't super like your rvs vote either because there was actual content to engage with at that point

i didn't really get a tvs vibe from aubry v irrel

==

MME was the only one to not confirm, you’re my biggest scumread. I mostly use my vote to keep track of my biggest scumread at all times

huh, i thought nukaholic was the one to have not confirmed (and i think they haven't even posted yet? i imagine they'll be getting prodded/replaced shortly)

(and also a little bit because scum!skitter is the only scum I have reason to be afraid of).

flattered

==

a little bit guttown on gamma but idk why exactly

[northsidegal]

Searching for a replacement for Nukaholic.

[northsidegal]

Skygazer replaces Nukaholic.

Also prodding My Milked Eek.

[Skygazer]

sup yall

[skitter30]

Hi sky!

[Skygazer]

you town?

[skitter30]

Ye

You?

[Skygazer]

ye!

HEAL: no lunch
HEAL: skitter30

[Aubrey]

you want to make it easier to figure out who scum is in a failed coalition by making all the players in it easy-to-read. so you're basically trying to make a long-term (ie not coalition-based) win easier since winning the game via coalition can be tricky since scum are incentivized to act townie (and if they don't they just lose!)

If we make a coalition of

easy to read people

, and we are wrong, then clearly the coalition doesn't contain easy to read people. If we use the coalition as a cop read by putting one bad egg in the mix, then we are going against our win condition.

What we need to do is introspect how scum with react with their incentives to be in the coalition, and keep an eye on who everyone is town-reading while making sure we all are doing our best to make accurate reads and checking one another along the way.

---

For instance, I don't see how Elephant is being seen as one of the stronger town-reads so far outside of high energy. I remember Chara liked his idea of trying to keep the playing field shaky, but has he really made the playing field shaky with his antics? or has he just been a lot of noise?

[Aubrey]

I'll

HEAL:

Chara

[Skygazer]

oh shit um

no lunch do you know me?

you don't have to answer that but I have a suspicion of who ur main is

[Chara]

HEAL: Aubrey
HURT: elephant
sorry guys, really really tired. see you all tomorrow!

also hi Skygazer! :>