Mini 2049: The Townsquare Game Over

[DuckDuckJab]

anyone object to skitter => DT/GE => NSG => us?

yes, me
i know why you're reading me the way you are, but i am not getting mislynched here for the first time since like last may in a game where i've had four freaking correct vig shots, thank you

you're just town and i think nsg is too based on cheeky's play and how milk tried to guilty her day3; i'm pretty sure lynching and shooting in {dt/ge} just ends the game.

i'm a little nervous because if i'm wrong a townflip today and another tonight coupled with me dying tonight means that the game just ends overnight but i think that *probably* isn't a thing? given a50's slip from early day1 and how the game has played out i think he really did just fuck up and slipped something he wasn't supposed to, and that he spent a lot of the rest of the day trying to sort of play around it; i think that means that there will probably be another day tomorrow and a mess of a lylo to sort through if the game doesn't just end with {dt/ge}

show me your crumbing or softer?

[DuckDuckJab]

softing*

[DuckDuckJab]

NSG, I'd suggest you claim before us

due respect but Buj is obvtown as hell here

[DuckDuckJab]

Gamma's next

[DuckDuckJab]

@skitter sorry to be insistent. last time I singlehandedly nailed the scumteam I was a serial killer. I face value do not trust highly accurate vig claims in games with >4 scum

[northsidegal]

oh, so skitter is scum huh

[northsidegal]

dang.

[DuckDuckJab]

direct cc?

[northsidegal]

Nah, I'm VT.

I believe I have this setup worked out. Writing up a case atm.

[northsidegal]

I would like everyone else to claim before I post it, however.

[DuckDuckJab]

I suspect I have it worked out as well but who the fuck knows.
Be curious to see what you've got.

Did you not think skitter was scum earlier?

pedit: we're VT. low key wanted you and skitter claimed before claiming, GE/DT either cc or are just town

[skitter30]

show me your crumbing or softer?

i don't really crumb or soft; i don't think i have as a pr like ever tbh

@skitter sorry to be insistent. last time I singlehandedly nailed the scumteam I was a serial killer. I face value do not trust highly accurate vig claims in games with >4 scum

i mean sure, and i can understand why you're skeptical but like if i'm an sk i played .... really strangely? like, i honestly have no idea why sk!me would have shot a50 last night instead of shooting for town given that it was pretty apparent that he would have gotten lynched today?

like i'm kinda trying to wrap my head around how sk!me would have played this and i'm kinda drawing a blank because i pretty strongly thought milk was scum and i don't think that i ever shoot someone i thought was scum after two scum flips in a mini on n3 as an sk

==

oh, so skitter is scum huh

Nah, I'm VT.

I believe I have this setup worked out. Writing up a case atm.

do tell

[DuckDuckJab]

did I imply you were a SK? why so focused on that?

[DuckDuckJab]

I said last time I was a super accurate vig I was scum as wrll
like a deus ex machina vig claim isn't heartwarming

[skitter30]

i thought you were likening me this game to your sk game

[DuckDuckJab]

have you been playing into your wolf meta intentionally or

[DuckDuckJab]

i thought you were likening me this game to your sk game

I said I would not be taking it at face value

[skitter30]

no
was trying to not eat an nk and i think i overcorrected a bit

[skitter30]

i thought you were likening me this game to your sk game

I said I would not be taking it at face value

fair enough, fair enough; i misread what you meant then

[northsidegal]

meh, i wanted to wait for everyone to claim first, but i don't feel like waiting.

Required listening:

[northsidegal]

Here's the truth of this game:

Scum haven't been dying at night. They've been leaving.

I first private messaged Jingle about this over two weeks ago.

Hm. Two possibilities in my mind here – one is that "townspersons" are actually scum while "innocent evil people" are the town. That would explain DLA scumclaiming after his lynch but flipping town (unless he was just twilight trolling, but that seems unlikely to me). I would, however, be impressed that town had managed to lynch scum two days in a row.

The second possibility would be that this is some kind of extradition mafia where mafia win after they all escape. It would make sense with the flavor of "leaving the town", and from what little i've read it might make sense Robert leaving n1 after Thor said to definitely lynch him with his dying breath. That doesn't explain DLA scumclaiming and flipping town, and if it were true I would also expect scum kills to be compulsive for EV purposes, unless there were other types of power roles.

So, still not really sure!

Robert2424, an

Innocent Evil Person

, (Mafia Goon), has left the town Night 1.

joges, an

Innocent Evil Person

, (Mafia Goon), has left the town Night 2.

It was only a theory then, but it's all but confirmed in my mind now – something which I tend to try and avoid, but which I believe is warranted here.

First, let's look at how realistic it actually is that this is the work of the vigilante. In my mind, all of the evidence points towards scum not actually being killed at night:

• Scum are listed as having "left the town", not as having been killed.
  
• It has
  always
  been the scum member under the most heat that's been the one "killed" at night. Robert just barely gets lynched over Thor Day 1, and then immediately "leaves".
  
• There's already been one utterly false vigilante claim. I didn't believe it when A50 claimed it and had I been able to replace in yesterday I would have pushed for his immediate lynch. Yes, it's possible that someone who's claiming to be vig here is just
  really
  good in a game with a lot of scum. Occam's razor says that that isn't the case.
  
• This game was advertised in the Mini Theme queue as being based around "nonstandard mechanics [and] winconditions".

  Flavor/Mechanics: A flavor light setup containing nonstandard mechanics, winconditions, and a strong emphasis on dayplay. Limited reveals, role name and alignment only.

• So far, the only "nonstandard" thing we've seen has been scum being the only ones to die at night. This isn't the work of just a normal vigilante role. If it is, then what's the "nonstandard" element to the setup at all? No, this is what the setup is designed around.

So what's going on?

To figure it out, all you need to do is take a look at mith's Extradition Mafia. Each night, the Mafia chooses one member to "escape". The Mafia wins when all of the Mafia goons escape, and the town wins when just one member of the Mafia is lynched. Now, there are a few key differences that between this setup and that one, and corresponding explanations for all of them:

Differences:

• This is a closed setup rather than an open one. While scum presumably began the game with knowledge of what was going on, town was left in the dark and, from what I can gather, is
  still
  in the dark on what I believe is very likely the last day of the game.
  
• The scumteam has not been killing a townie each night in addition to escaping. In mith's version, the scum nightkill is compulsive for EV reasons. It actually
  benefits
  town EV wise for scum to kill a member, simply because of the "lynch one scum to win" town win condition.

Presumably, both of these differences would massively scumside the setup. How can these be explained? It's simple: the number of scum. There are 4 scum already flipped and, given that the game is still going on, presumably a 5th. Mith's version was balanced around only 3 scum. The fact that scum has to deal with having all 5 (I presume it's only 5) members of the team escape without a single scum lynch is what balances out the other advantages afforded to them. With their high numbers they likely control dayplay and it would require a near unanimous town agreement to lynch one of them. In exchange, they face one mistake or one bad member being able to completely take down the entire team.

Look at the town win condition. It isn't "you win when all threats to the town are eliminated". It's "You win when all other winconditions become impossible to achieve." The scum wincondition is very likely "have all of your members escape without a single one being lynched".

That's

why town doesn't win when all threats to the town are eliminated.

Because we only need to eliminate one.

So, what does this all mean?

There's no Vigilante.

What does that mean? Well, unfortunately...

Skitter is scum.

[DuckDuckJab]

That's something Buj and I just floated on Discord lol.
I'd be down tbh. if it's just scum don't have a nk then 1v3 nightless with us alive this is an autowin anyway

[DuckDuckJab]

Well we floated that it might be a lynch by lynch system scum have already won (town lynch = mafia nk; mafia lynch = town nk)

[DuckDuckJab]

@skitter who's the last scum?

[DuckDuckJab]

Just gonna add that even if nsg is not right, I was just telling tw that because we know that scum have no NK right now, and that we absolutely must lynch scum to win anyway, there's no reason to keep skitter alive even if she's town. Just remove that risk from the game, guarantee that there are no nightkills, and lynch the last scum.

So now that there's a 2nd, even stronger reason to lynch skitter (never heard of extradition mafia before or such a different win condition, that was an interesting post to read @nsg), let's lynch skitter.

-BuJ