Open 744 - Lovers and Losers [endgame]


User avatar
yessiree
yessiree
he
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
yessiree
he
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 4349
Joined: June 6, 2013
Pronoun: he

Post Post #625 (ISO) » Sat Dec 29, 2018 6:10 pm

Post by yessiree »

yes the setup is theoretically townsided, EV should be 2/3 if following optimal strategy of lynching from VT claims (day one has 1/3 odds of hitting scum, and then day two 50/50 of hitting scum)

despite that though, I think this setup is susceptible to TvTs, and with any decent scum play, it would easily snowball into a town loss, which is kinda what happened here
User avatar
volxen
volxen
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
volxen
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1419
Joined: August 10, 2018

Post Post #626 (ISO) » Sat Dec 29, 2018 7:30 pm

Post by volxen »

Yes the setup seems townsided, since town has a straight up 2/3 chance of winning by just lynching two claimed VT's or two claimed town lovers (though I've explained numerous times already why it's much better to strictly lynch VT's only :D)

Unfortunately, we put our trust in the wrong VT, and that's why we lost. Can't win them all, right?
User avatar
LolWagons
LolWagons
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
LolWagons
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1006
Joined: June 5, 2012

Post Post #627 (ISO) » Sat Dec 29, 2018 7:32 pm

Post by LolWagons »

What? I’m always town. Every game. You can always trust me.
User avatar
volxen
volxen
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
volxen
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1419
Joined: August 10, 2018

Post Post #628 (ISO) » Sat Dec 29, 2018 7:34 pm

Post by volxen »

In post 627, LolWagons wrote:What? I’m always town. Every game. You can always trust me.
I THOUGHT I could trust you man, and then this game happened... :shifty:
User avatar
Auro
Auro
Survivor
User avatar
User avatar
Auro
Survivor
Survivor
Posts: 11076
Joined: October 9, 2018
Location: India

Post Post #629 (ISO) » Sat Dec 29, 2018 7:37 pm

Post by Auro »

It's not about trusting Lolwagons, lolol.
Between Bambi and Clem we had to choose which was scum. Our wrong choice there led us to eliminate Lolwagons associatively.
User avatar
volxen
volxen
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
volxen
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1419
Joined: August 10, 2018

Post Post #630 (ISO) » Sat Dec 29, 2018 7:42 pm

Post by volxen »

In post 629, Auro wrote:It's not about trusting Lolwagons, lolol.
Between Bambi and Clem we had to choose which was scum. Our wrong choice there led us to eliminate Lolwagons associatively.
I meant our mistake was trusting LolWagons over Overkill and DongEmpire, since in the end we did *finally* lynch from the VT pool.

For me at least, it had nothing to do with Bambi vs Clemency, because regardless of which one of them was scum, I still thought LolWagons was town. That's why I didn't unvote Overkill after Muh voted for him. Because I thought Overkill could have been scum with either Bambi/Ruby or Clemency/Muh.
User avatar
Auro
Auro
Survivor
User avatar
User avatar
Auro
Survivor
Survivor
Posts: 11076
Joined: October 9, 2018
Location: India

Post Post #631 (ISO) » Sat Dec 29, 2018 7:46 pm

Post by Auro »

I was starting to get paranoid about Lol and wanted to grill 0ver first, however the "race" mechanic meant we had to lay down our vote ASAP so I had to rush it.

If I believed Bambi was scum, I'd not let Lolwagons off so easily, it was my firm belief in Clem being scum that led me to nearly "lock" there.
User avatar
LolWagons
LolWagons
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
LolWagons
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1006
Joined: June 5, 2012

Post Post #632 (ISO) » Sat Dec 29, 2018 7:48 pm

Post by LolWagons »

Honestly I was really worried about Overk1ll coming in the thread and towntelling.

Then I would have had to convince clemency that if he thought I was scum with you two to vote you, which would have been a nightmare and would have sealed your scum read of me.
User avatar
volxen
volxen
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
volxen
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1419
Joined: August 10, 2018

Post Post #633 (ISO) » Sat Dec 29, 2018 7:51 pm

Post by volxen »

In post 631, Auro wrote:I was starting to get paranoid about Lol and wanted to grill 0ver first, however the "race" mechanic meant we had to lay down our vote ASAP so I had to rush it.

If I believed Bambi was scum, I'd not let Lolwagons off so easily, it was my firm belief in Clem being scum that led me to nearly "lock" there.
Yeah the fact that I thought we had to win the "race" really sucked, because it meant we couldn't give Overkill a chance to respond and defend himself.
User avatar
volxen
volxen
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
volxen
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1419
Joined: August 10, 2018

Post Post #634 (ISO) » Sat Dec 29, 2018 7:54 pm

Post by volxen »

In post 632, LolWagons wrote:Honestly I was really worried about Overk1ll coming in the thread and towntelling.

Then I would have had to convince clemency that if he thought I was scum with you two to vote you, which would have been a nightmare and would have sealed your scum read of me.
But logically this wouldn't make sense for town!you to argue for, because if you were town in this game the only thing you could have been 100% certain about was Overkill being scum. So it wouldn't make sense for you to be arguing for lynching a claimed town lover pair after we already lynched a claimed VT on day one. But yes, if you had made that argument we would have been certain of you being scum, and then we could have appealed to Clemency and Muh to vote for you.
User avatar
volxen
volxen
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
volxen
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1419
Joined: August 10, 2018

Post Post #635 (ISO) » Sat Dec 29, 2018 7:57 pm

Post by volxen »

@Auro, remind me again why you thought Overkill could be scum only with {Clemency, Muh} but not with {Bambi, Ruby}?
User avatar
Auro
Auro
Survivor
User avatar
User avatar
Auro
Survivor
Survivor
Posts: 11076
Joined: October 9, 2018
Location: India

Post Post #636 (ISO) » Sat Dec 29, 2018 8:03 pm

Post by Auro »

In post 635, volxen wrote:@Auro, remind me again why you thought Overkill could be scum only with {Clemency, Muh} but not with {Bambi, Ruby}?
I didn't care for that -- Overkill could be with both, I eliminated Lolwagons being with Clem/Muh for sure. (Which I was correct on) :P
User avatar
BBmolla
BBmolla
Open Book
User avatar
User avatar
BBmolla
Open Book
Open Book
Posts: 24301
Joined: May 29, 2011

Post Post #637 (ISO) » Sun Dec 30, 2018 2:10 am

Post by BBmolla »

Is the setup much improved if 2/3 mafia are lovers and the other is a goon?

On phone so can’t do math, will in the morning.

If that’s scumsided, try having a scum lynch publicly reveal a town player of the lynched mafia’s choosing in the opposite group.

I’ll do calculations tomorrow.
Come see me in the Great American Melodrama in Oceano
User avatar
yessiree
yessiree
he
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
yessiree
he
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 4349
Joined: June 6, 2013
Pronoun: he

Post Post #638 (ISO) » Sun Dec 30, 2018 3:17 pm

Post by yessiree »

Don't you think it's too early to be making changes to the setup.
User avatar
LolWagons
LolWagons
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
LolWagons
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1006
Joined: June 5, 2012

Post Post #639 (ISO) » Sun Dec 30, 2018 4:06 pm

Post by LolWagons »

The mafia just has an outsized role in the beginning as I said. Add to that no clears and no investigative PRs and it’s probably an accurate demonstration of how often mob rule works.

Maybe do 2 Town lover pairs, 1 scum lover pair, 2 VTs, 1 Goon, and two lover masons. Give mafia a night 1 kill.

Or something like that. The problem is no clears and early outsized scum influence. To fix the setup you have to fix that.
User avatar
Ruby Red
Ruby Red
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Ruby Red
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 1331
Joined: April 9, 2018

Post Post #640 (ISO) » Sun Dec 30, 2018 4:46 pm

Post by Ruby Red »

In post 638, yessiree wrote:Don't you think it's too early to be making changes to the setup.
i mean despite how this run went i think this setup is just hard broken for town

all it takes is literally one unambiguous townread for a guaranteed win for town – in this playerlist we got lucky with a tvt and with wagons being able to look towny, but in another playerlist with just one player who's obvtown it's an entirely different story
Locked

Return to “Completed Open Games”