In post 1, BNL wrote:This is an open setup: there are 2 Mafia Goons, 6 Vanilla Townies, and 1 Town Deflector.
Posted: Sat Feb 02, 2019 2:37 am
by Dunnstral
In post 518, Flavor Leaf wrote:Yeah. I don’t care too much about dealing with the numbers. It’s fine to look at, but it’s just gambler’s fallacy.
...but is it?
The gambler's fallacy is the mistaken belief that, if something happens more frequently than normal during a given period, it will happen less frequently in the future (or vice versa). In situations where the outcome being observed is truly random and consists of independent trials of a random process, this belief is false.
Let's see what we have here:
It's not truly random. Odds are weighted.
My talk about numbers isn't mistaken belief, the only thing that could be mistaken about that is assuming that alive players are town
This isn't gambler's fallacy, this is plain statistics, and it's real. I'd argue that the mistaken belief is that the odds don't matter. After, all, the weighted odds seem to be a substantial balancing point of the setup
It’s probably me, then. I don’t like that, I made a comment in my room with Plot thinking you’re trying to buddy up to me even subtly before I posted after you replaced in.
That’s fine but that’s something I usually do with my stronger townreads. Your play here reminds me a lot of YGM. You also come across extremely genuine in your posts but I understand why you’d be paranoid of that, given your feelings on my predecessor.
I’m not sure why you’d think that before now though. I think mechanically speaking, you’re less likely to be scum due to VCA, eventhough I’m getting a lot of shit about that from some people.
In post 502, Dunnstral wrote:You guys might now be wondering if I've looked at these numbers from my point of view to influence my opinion. Nope, I haven't. I can say that I'm confident enough in my analysis of the gamestate that I'm willing to lynch past any statistical differences, and so it won't be all too insightful for me to do it personally. To put it in simple terms, even if I calculate the odds from my point of view, I trust my own reads more than any statistical analysis can provide, and I certainly trust it more than your guys reads (you guys aren't as good at this game as you think you are - As proof, none of you ever indicated that you'd stopped to think about statistical probability, you all got all wrapped up in Plotinus'
distraction
with the neighborhoods. This is me caring enough about the game to lay it all out on a silver platter for you guys. And no Something Smart, you don't get to come in here and prod dodge with a naked question about my reads. This doesn't look like your town game and it's clear you don't intend to work with me, so now you can die too, especially after you aided plotinus with misleading nancy then gave a generic excuse without caring that I'd never responded to you. I don't think you're town, or if you are it doesn't matter and you can reflect on what you did wrong after I drag your dead body across the finish line.
You don’t think SS is playing similarly here to Excalibur?
Not at all no, and if you think he is then that's weird since I assume the core of his gameplay is actually in rooms you don't have access to
I don’t have any rooms with him. So, if you have information on him that is not in the main thread, It would reay help if you would share it.
Oh you’re just assuming? Who is/has been in a room with him, because it would be really helpful for me to help sort him.
Posted: Sat Feb 02, 2019 2:43 am
by Flavor Leaf
You’re right, gambler’s fallacy was the wrong term.
I’m just saying even if something has a 1% chance, there’s always the chance that could have been the one picked. It’s a raffle, and some people bought more tickets.
If you are completely off put, vote for the person with the higher chance statistically of being scum, sure. I’m town with the slot that had the highest chances, though, so I don’t necessarily agree with that path.
@Nancy - I was playing with the mindset there was 1 scum off the wagon for the purpose of being off of it, which is why I was pushing for Clemency as scum.
I’m just saying even if something has a 1% chance, there’s always the chance that could have been the one picked. It’s a raffle, and some people bought more tickets.
If you are completely off put, vote for the person with the higher chance statistically of being scum, sure. I’m town with the slot that had the highest chances, though, so I don’t necessarily agree with that path.
@Nancy - I was playing with the mindset there was 1 scum off the wagon for the purpose of being off of it, which is why I was pushing for Clemency as scum.
Yeah, if scum is offwagon, then I townread you and Plotinus over Clemency.
I think for today though, I prefer to lynch the very likely scum who wad ONwagon, since I’m far more certain that at least one scum was onwagon than off rn.
What do you make of both SS and Persivul having very similar reactions to my VCA read?
@Dunn, I’d like your thoughts on this as well. Thanks.
!INFRACTION! - You cannot talk to or about Plotinus right now
Alright thanks and I don’t need reminders of what I just posted yesterday. I’m not convinced there wasn’t but I think it’s extremely likely at LEAST one was.
Which is WHY I keep saying, I prefer to lynch ONwagon today but thanks for continuing to clarify my being consistent.
I’m just saying even if something has a 1% chance, there’s always the chance that could have been the one picked. It’s a raffle, and some people bought more tickets.
If you are completely off put, vote for the person with the higher chance statistically of being scum, sure. I’m town with the slot that had the highest chances, though, so I don’t necessarily agree with that path.
@Nancy - I was playing with the mindset there was 1 scum off the wagon for the purpose of being off of it, which is why I was pushing for Clemency as scum.
Yeah, if scum is offwagon, then I townread you and Plotinus over Clemency.
I think for today though, I prefer to lynch the very likely scum who wad ONwagon, since I’m far more certain that at least one scum was onwagon than off rn.
What do you make of both SS and Persivul having very similar reactions to my VCA read?
@Dunn, I’d like your thoughts on this as well. Thanks.
Note that plurality lynch is in effect, but it would have roleblocked our power role. Those off wagon people, do they still look so towny?
Reread the relevant sections
I’m just saying even if something has a 1% chance, there’s always the chance that could have been the one picked. It’s a raffle, and some people bought more tickets.
If you are completely off put, vote for the person with the higher chance statistically of being scum, sure. I’m town with the slot that had the highest chances, though, so I don’t necessarily agree with that path.
@Nancy - I was playing with the mindset there was 1 scum off the wagon for the purpose of being off of it, which is why I was pushing for Clemency as scum.
Yeah, if scum is offwagon, then I townread you and Plotinus over Clemency.
I think for today though, I prefer to lynch the very likely scum who wad ONwagon, since I’m far more certain that at least one scum was onwagon than off rn.
What do you make of both SS and Persivul having very similar reactions to my VCA read?
@Dunn, I’d like your thoughts on this as well. Thanks.
Note that plurality lynch is in effect, but it would have roleblocked our power role. Those off wagon people, do they still look so towny?
Reread the relevant sections
I have posted in my room with Clemency and have not gotten any response as of yet.
Okay, I’m thinking that Flavor is right about you, so if/probably scum was onwagon, it’s not you.
Flavor, you, Plotinus are my top 3 towns rn.
!INFRACTION! - You cannot talk to or about Plotinus right now
Since this is your third infraction, you have lost room voting priviledges
I’m just saying even if something has a 1% chance, there’s always the chance that could have been the one picked. It’s a raffle, and some people bought more tickets.
If you are completely off put, vote for the person with the higher chance statistically of being scum, sure. I’m town with the slot that had the highest chances, though, so I don’t necessarily agree with that path.
@Nancy - I was playing with the mindset there was 1 scum off the wagon for the purpose of being off of it, which is why I was pushing for Clemency as scum.
Yeah, if scum is offwagon, then I townread you and Plotinus over Clemency.
I think for today though, I prefer to lynch the very likely scum who wad ONwagon, since I’m far more certain that at least one scum was onwagon than off rn.
What do you make of both SS and Persivul having very similar reactions to my VCA read?
@Dunn, I’d like your thoughts on this as well. Thanks.
Note that plurality lynch is in effect, but it would have roleblocked our power role. Those off wagon people, do they still look so towny?
Reread the relevant sections
I have posted in my room with Clemency and have not gotten any response as of yet.
Okay, I’m thinking that Flavor is right about you, so if/probably scum was onwagon, it’s not you.
Flavor, you, Plotinus are my top 3 towns rn.
I just broke my post restriction. Sorry @mod. *kicks self*
Mod notes:
Persivul and Flavor Leaf have gotten a Room
Nancy Drew 39 has lost her room vote
Posted: Sat Feb 02, 2019 3:37 am
by Clemency
lemme get a grasp of this game again, it's hard to focus on
Posted: Sat Feb 02, 2019 3:39 am
by Clemency
i like mr. tasty leaf
i was leaning on scum ruby but now that you're here idk how to feel
plot's town i think
Posted: Sat Feb 02, 2019 3:47 am
by Nancy Drew 39
In post 541, Clemency wrote:i like mr. tasty leaf
i was leaning on scum ruby but now that you're here idk how to feel
plot's town i think
If I had been in that slot from the beginning, I would have fought obvtown Gamma mislynch.
You’re mindmelding with me on 2/3 reads.
What is your take on both SS and Persival having very similar reactions to my VCA theory?
Posted: Sat Feb 02, 2019 3:52 am
by Clemency
oh i skipped forward
i was gonna read what i missed soon
Posted: Sat Feb 02, 2019 4:00 am
by Something_Smart
In post 529, Flavor Leaf wrote:I’m just saying even if something has a 1% chance, there’s always the chance that could have been the one picked. It’s a raffle, and some people bought more tickets.
Maybe, but it's the less harmful of the two fallacies. It's much more common, and dangerous, to treat a small chance as a serious possibility. 1% = 0% for me, and I will happily accept the ~5% chance of autoloss that entails in order to help me enormously in the other 95% of cases.
Posted: Sat Feb 02, 2019 4:01 am
by Something_Smart
In post 500, Flavor Leaf wrote:However, Nancy’ll likely obvtown if town, so I’m not too worried.
Get A Room: Persivul/Flavor
You don't think she already has?
Posted: Sat Feb 02, 2019 4:06 am
by Something_Smart
In post 502, Dunnstral wrote:This doesn't look like your town game and it's clear you don't intend to work with me, so now you can die too, especially after you aided plotinus with misleading nancy then gave a generic excuse without caring that I'd never responded to you.
What would "working with you" entail? I don't recall seeing any signs that you wanted to do that...
Do you want a room together?
Posted: Sat Feb 02, 2019 4:09 am
by Something_Smart
And saying that I "aided Plotinus in misleading Nancy" and then "gave a generic excuse" about it is some serious begging the question... you're assuming an ulterior motive for voting for that room, because it's completely reasonable that I'm town and have a policy of simply giving people what they want, which is a generic policy because it's a very simple one.
Posted: Sat Feb 02, 2019 4:15 am
by Something_Smart
Get a room: Dunnstral, Something_Smart
Nobody hammer this unless Dunn says he's okay with it.
