Mini 2079 - Guns & Roses [Game Over]

[FakeGod]

Also, sorta related, but is anyone on MS a

known crackshot

on a vig?

[implosion]

I do agree that the theoretically optimal strategy for town is some kind of mixed strategy. Even within the realm of "only pick n1 _____", you can game it by figuring out the optimal ratio of gun : rose and basing your probability on that.

[hitogoroshi]

Also, sorta related, but is anyone on MS a

known crackshot

on a vig?

singer was 2/2 in a Large in my last modded game

No idea about current players though.

[geometry]

Also aren't vig games getting rarer?

[geometry]

I've seen older discussions where mods were thinking about using vigs as an in game policy and I don't think that's a good idea

[FakeGod]

Good vigs in the past that I've seen in my games were Spiffeh (kuribo in Wonderland) and DeasVail (through the looking-glass), but these games are few years old.

[implosion]

hey i also shot scum in kuribo in wonderland!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[popsofctown]

I vigged 4 scum in 6 shots the only time I played vig.

I think college age pops is an OP vig but he does not exist today necessarily.

[implosion]

(let's ignore the other part)

[FakeGod]

Does 13:4 sound balanced to you?

[popsofctown]

It is hard to feign an opinion cause like I don't think I actually care if the town winrate is 50%, I don't think I will like the setup no matter what the numbers are tweaked to, and yet I'm going to pre-in no matter what if FakeGod is the one running it

[Pine]

GG.

The setup on average is probably a bit townsided. The setup as it was instantiated here was probably pretty even. Having a more even gun/rose split is probably better for town. I think it'd be better at a higher player count as it was originally conceived; at this player count it's okay but idk, I feel like the concept would shine more at around 17ish?

I really really disagree that scum has any real incentive to pick rose in this version. If I was town I was planning to pick n2 or n3 rose (undecidedly); as scum it was really, really obvious to pick guns. S_S was wondering why scum didn't take two n1 guns; we more or less made our choices separately. LLD opted for n1 gun (i assume she needed to be able to claim it if the split hadn't been so one-sided) and I opted for n2 rather than n1 with the logic that (1) there could theoretically be a high preponderance of n1 roses, (2) if there are relatively few roses then having kills on later nights is potentially more valuable because we would have more information about what players are holding the roses. At least I think that's what my reasoning would be.

I agree with virtually everything implosion said here. Well put and well played.

Apologies to Town, I bungled this. That said, this is why lurking is a bad case. It’s NAI, and there’s just plain no defense against it. I got flustered and irritated, all while dealing with my very real RL issues.

The gun claim went badly. My mistake. I assumed that an uncountered claim would be a get out of jail free card, but I underestimated the ingrained suspicion. I will take credit for flushing LLD out, though. My claim and intent to shoot her prompted her to obvscum.

[hitogoroshi]

Does 13:4 sound balanced to you?

I think this kind of a unique case where the balance is less contingent on EV and more about people's mental models reacting to other peoples mental models. I might actually code a quick model just to keep my Netlogo skills fresh.

[Pine]

Also, sorta related, but is anyone on MS a

known crackshot

on a vig?

I’m not perfect, but I’ve got a like 60-70% scumkill rate. Intent to target LLD should serve as credentials.

[Kagami]

I agree that scum should be picking guns, but I would also like to add that in the other two games I've run offsite, the entirety of scum team were

annihilated by town N1 Guns

(!?) and the games did not even go into D2. (1st game, both scum were gunned down N1; the 2nd game, one scum was lynched D1, and other gunned down N1)

I would argue that a N1 Rose pick for scum is a viable pick.

I would also argue that there is non-zero utility in picking later nights than N1, but N1 anything is pretty clearly the dominating choice in the playspace.

Town gets a huge benefit in lining up their Rose/Gun picks to all being the same night, and the only sensible night given that is N1. I agree that N1 rose is a very reasonable scum pick, maybe even the optimal one, but they then run the risk of getting locked into rose claims and playing a mountainous-like setup with a lot of role information that favors the town.

[popsofctown]

trading with LLD was p good Pine

[RadiantCowbells]

fun game to watch, gg everyone.

[popsofctown]

RC how do you play 20 games and watch another 30

[RadiantCowbells]

i haven't been in more than 5 games for a very long time.

[chennisden]

i didnt actually make any reads

but why didn't pine choose n2 gun?

[geometry]

oops, pine didnt choose as he was a replace im

[Haschel Cedricson]

Good work; town. Sorry again for being worthless.

[FakeGod]

I'll run the large setup at 11:3, after pondering.

I'll see you guys there!

[Gamma Emerald]

I wish I had a chance to play this magnificent setup
Thank goodness it's getting a round 2.

[FakeGod]

Sign up For round 2 is up!