Normal 222: Black Versus White Mafia (Endgame)

[Darth Baker]

Your feelings have now betrayed her, too. Obi-Wan was wise to hide her from me. Now his failure is complete. If you will not turn to the Dark Side… then perhaps she will..

[PMysterious]

Are we in Lylo, and if we're not, can I votepark on VD?

Let’s do Darth Baker.

Looking at the ISO, I actually agree with this one. I can't really think of anything Darth Baker has said that actually comes off as Town. It's one thing to stick to the character, it's another to basically supply nothing of use.

Are we in Lylo, and if we're not, can I votepark on VD?

Given the circumstances, it probably isn't LYLO, but it is getting close to that. 4 scum in 17 players is a lot, and considering that somehow we haven't even hit 1 despite having 8 players dead, that's highly unlikely. But still, voteparking on VD at the moment does not seem like a good idea. He's the un-cc'd (Ascetic) Vig/JK, and a vote park on an un cc'd player is a bit scummy.
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Of the players we have, I honestly don't know who is Town or Mafia anymore. I thought I had an idea, but when Mumble/PP flipped Town (especially the role he claimed), my perception of this game changed entirely. I'll need to recap everybody. The only one I can say for sure is Town is Vault, and that's because he's un-cc'd. Other than that, nothing. At this point, almost everyone is scummy in some way, shape, or form, that it's bothering me.

[PMysterious]

Okay, so, of the players that are left, here are the claims.

Something_Smart- Tracker Enabler, neighbored by Mumble on Night 1.

Rick- Visitor, claimed Tracker on Day 1, informed of Ninjas.

Vault- Vig/JK, killed Ethos Night 2. Claimed he was Ascetic after Rick attempted to claim he targeted VD with tracking.

Darth Baker- VT

The Fonz- VT

PMysterious (Me)- VT

Almost50- VT (KEYNOTE: Claimed last, and even asked to claim last.)

Vork- VT

Lil Uzi- VT

So, of the claims. Rick was the one that did the most when it comes to claims and Almost50 asked to claim last, which he eventually did.

These claims all came from Day 3, and since then, there have been no retractions. So, I have a few questions that I must ask.

S_S: It's confirmed at this point that Mumble neighbored you, but outside of Night 3, did you communicate with Mumble in any way?

Rick: You claimed Visitor recently, which would fall in line with the info of Ninjas, but are there any modifiers on the role? Like how Vault is Ascetic, is there anything you need to inform us about?

Almost50: I asked this before, but to recap, was there any particular reason to claim last?

I would like answers to all of these questions if at all possible.

[Something_Smart]

S_S: It's confirmed at this point that Mumble neighbored you, but outside of Night 3, did you communicate with Mumble in any way?

I mean we talked in the hood before N3, but not really about anything important.

[Rick Dalton]

Nah, I have no other modifiers.

[Rick Dalton]

Almost50, PMysterious, Vorkuta, Darth Baker

Taking out VD and Titus from the Penguin Wagon, I would say at least 2 of these are the scum team.

Fonz is likely scum off the wagon.

The 4 people off the wagon were Myself, SS, LUV, and Fonz. Not counting Penguin since he died.

Penguin and I were on PM, so I really think it’s PM.

PM, Fonz, I think one of Baker/Vorkuta makes sense. PMysterious seems to semi be setting up a bus attempt on Baker for some town cred it seems. If baker is town, then that’s a mislynch attempt.

If we’re dealing with only 3 scum, I would say that it’s PM, Fonz, and Baker/Vorkuta.

A50 had a few things that I would consider having given a scum agenda, but my gut isn’t screaming towards him, and it usually is. Even when I think logically he is scum, but I’m not sure, he’s usually town. I know he’s scum when he’s scum.

[Rick Dalton]

If there’s 4 scum, add LUV/SS to Vorkuta/Baker and then it’s 2 of the 4.

[Rick Dalton]

More like a [(Vorkuta/Baker)LUV/SS]

Where 2 of the 4 are scum, but one of them is in Vorkuta/Baker

[Rick Dalton]

Also, PMysterious is doing hard IioA.

[Almost50]

Are we in Lylo, and if we're not, can I votepark on VD?

Let’s do Darth Baker.

Let’s do PM

Let's do the conga

[Almost50]

Almost50: I asked this before, but to recap, was there any particular reason to claim last?

2- Because I wanted scum to worry about me having a different role than the one I claimed, so it'd be harder for them to fake claim. I think it paid off and most of them just claimed VT.

[PMysterious]

S_S: It's confirmed at this point that Mumble neighbored you, but outside of Night 3, did you communicate with Mumble in any way?

I mean we talked in the hood before N3, but not really about anything important.

At this point, almost anything Mumble and you have talked about is important if it retains to the game.

Nah, I have no other modifiers.

So you're basically a VT at this point.

The Power Roles are now glorified VTs, so we'll have to do any of our deduction throughout the day. If I were to take a guess through probability, the Mafia are in 1 Power Role and 2 VT slots, or maybe 1 VT and 2 Power Roles. Either way, the Mafia likely possess at least one of the VT slots and at least one Power Role slot.

This can help narrow down the playing field.

Vault is most likely to be Town of the Power roles, with the claim of being an Ascetic Vig/JK, and considering that he actually did act.

Through the VTs, ignoring myself, here is my list from least scummy to most scummy based on play.

Lil Uzi
Fonz
Almost50
Vork
Darth Baker

Darth Baker hasn't provided any posts actually worth a thing since the beginning of the game, and overall feels lackluster compared to the other players. It wouldn't surprise me if he's been trying to lay low.

As for Rick and S_S, it will depend on if there are Ninjas or not as Rick claims, if there are Ninjas and Rick is indeed a Visitor, then S_S is a good candidate for Mafia. If there is no Ninja, then it is the other way around.

My predictions for Mafia are as follows.

Almost50: I asked this before, but to recap, was there any particular reason to claim last?

2- Because I wanted scum to worry about me having a different role than the one I claimed, so it'd be harder for them to fake claim. I think it paid off and most of them just claimed VT.

I was about to post the post without this, and I will say, it's solid considering the mathematics of 2 VTs being Scum compared to 2 Power Roles. I'll give you the benefit of the doubt and say that you are not Mafia for the time being. NOW to the actual predictions.

Rick/S_S
Darth Baker
Vork

That's 4 players in this list, and I think I nailed down all the Mafia in this group. The question now is, which ones are right? Rick/S_S comes down to if there are Ninjas or not.

The other players not in that group of players piled up as scum candidates, are my current Town reads (A50 is leaning Town at the moment).

[Rick Dalton]

actually, I know for a fact that Baker and Vorkuta have good chemistry, and they’re even on the same team Mafia team.

I haven’t seen any of that this game, and it might actually be scum indicative.

[Rick Dalton]

I meant to say that yesterday, but I forgot, and was focused on Mumble/PM.

I’m gonna look back to see why i thought that.

[Something_Smart]

I'll summarize the neighborhood when I get home tonight. There really isn't much in there other than me telling Mumble not to protect anyone.

[Vorkuta]

Baker and Vorkuta have good chemistry

but this is some random darth baker evil sith lord and he won't be interested in my cookie recipes
bs push is bs

[Something_Smart]

Spoiler: Neighborhood synopsis

Mumble: You were my biggest townread, I think Croag could be scum.
Mumble (2 days later): Please say something here.
-johhny sno replaces Saudade-
Johhny: why did you townread my slot?
Mumble: Saudade was posting in a way that he usually does as town, and most of the other players were pretty bad.
Johhny: I suppose, normally the way Saudade posts gets him suspected so I was surprised that you townread him.
Mumble: How are you feeling about the game?
Johhny: I don't trust VD, the claim could have been a scum panic claim, but he was wagoned fast so I may not vote him right away. Scum seem to be happy with how the game's going, since not much is going on.
Johhny: Who do you want to add to the hood next?
Mumble: I'm only one-shot.
Mumble (4 days later): What happened? What do you think of Rick's lie?
Johhny: I've been busy. Rick lying isn't really indicative of much.
Mumble: Does Rick lie a lot when he's town?
-S_S replaces johhny sno-
S_S: Yeah, he does.
Mumble: Let me know what you're thinking once you've read up.
S_S: My thoughts on reading up usually suck, so don't expect much.
S_S: You thought Rick could be town, why is that? I think he could be too, but you never know with him.
S_S: I'm thinking PMysterious, The Fonz, Vaultdweller, Chickadee, and Rick are town. I'd like to lynch outside of them.
Mumble: I thought Rick might be town because you told me he lies as town frequently.
Mumble: My gut says LUV is scum. Maybe Vork as well.
Mumble: Should I guard anyone tonight?
Mumble: Looking at how the wagon went, Rick could be scum too.
S_S: Because scum were trying to save Rick?
S_S: I wouldn't guard anyone tonight.
S_S: LUV has left absolutely no impression on me thus far.
S_S: Scum-Rick usually has a good claim but weird arguments, this is the opposite though. I think he's more likely town.
Mumble: (In response to "Because scum were trying to save Rick?") Yeah, Croag's wagon went so quickly compared to Rick's.
S_S: That was probably just because deadline, but you are right that Rick is hard to wagon as scum.
S_S: Scum-Rick probably kills me tonight.
Mumble: I just meant that Croag's wagon popped up closer to deadline.
S_S: Did you guard somebody?
Mumble: No, I didn't.
-PenguinPower replaces Mumble-
S_S: You should read all of D4. Mumble did some weird stuff.
PP: Oh, he freaked out on A50, that's happened in the past. Why didn't you want him to guard Chickadee?
S_S: Cause of the likely ninja, I figured scum would hit the macho or the ascetic claim.
PP: Who's macho/ascetic?
S_S: I'm macho, VD is ascetic.

[Rick Dalton]

Baker and Vorkuta have good chemistry

but this is some random darth baker evil sith lord and he won't be interested in my cookie recipes
bs push is bs

How is it bs? And why is this so defensive?

I think it was a rather fair analysis, and you’re right, I do agree Baker is different here.

And he is an evil sith lord of pastries.

Even if it isn’t true and you guys aren’t scum together, I think it’s fair of me to think that there could be a chance.

Also, the fact you pushed it like that instead of immediately thinking that maybe Darth is scum instead of you makes me feel like I’m either correct, or that you know he’s town.

[Rick Dalton]

Why can’t Baker be scum, Vork?

[VaultDweller]

This is the stage in the game where we should be lynching the "Town Leaders". Though I'm actually not sure who that would be :/

[The Fonz]

Given the circumstances, it probably isn't LYLO, but it is getting close to that. 4 scum in 17 players is a lot, and considering that somehow we haven't even hit 1 despite having 8 players dead, that's highly unlikely.

WHAT? Three in thirteen is standard. You normally get around 25% scum for one scumgroup games. Why on earth would it be highly unlikely to be four in seventeen?

This is the stage in the game where we should be lynching the "Town Leaders". Though I'm actually not sure who that would be :/

VD: you're the confirmed town. The "town leader" today really ought to be you. Do you have any decently strong town reads? You were on Rick two days ago: has anything changed in your view of him, or was it just that Mumble vaulted himself into the lead yesterday then PP did nothing to bring that read into question?

[VaultDweller]

TBQH, I've kind of given up on this game, given how badly we've been doing. And to quote one of my very first posts, which was semi-serious:

I'll abstain

You really don't want me in your town core

Okay ngl this is really sus. Why do you want to abstain?

I'm not good at being town core. I prefer being suspected the whole game long

The point I'm trying to make though, is that the "strong" players failed to deliver any scum so far, which tends to mean that the majority of the "strong" players are scum. So yeah, I am back to scumreading Rick. If I had to take a wild guess majority of scum is within Rick/Vork/a50.

[Something_Smart]

I'd prefer A50 out of those three.

[Something_Smart]

Also, with the lack of town power we've seen, 14:3 isn't impossible, but I think it's more likely 13:3.5 (3 scum plus a traitor).

[VaultDweller]

And probably Darth. If Darth was Town, he would have been mislynched a long time ago for all of his fluff posting. But my theory is that his scumbuddies are keeping suspicion off of him.