Team Mafia 2020 (YOADSG Wins!)

Begins January 2nd, 2020
Locked
Alyssa The Lamb
Alyssa The Lamb
Mafia Scum
Alyssa The Lamb
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2521
Joined: March 9, 2020

Post Post #625 (ISO) » Fri Mar 20, 2020 10:59 am

Post by Alyssa The Lamb »

In post 622, kuribo wrote:
In post 620, Gammagooey wrote:Congrats You Over A Disproportionately Small Gap and gg all!

I dunno if the Large Theme ever stopped being at least a little stressful to play in until the final flip but at least there was some relaxing and shitposting in the last few game days >_>


At least you didn't have to stand on the corpses of your dead scumbuddies while trying to figure out how to burn three mislynches in a game where 50% of the players were confirmed town to one another :lol:
you got really close though
User avatar
Dannflor
Dannflor
he/him
Survivor
User avatar
User avatar
Dannflor
he/him
Survivor
Survivor
Posts: 19821
Joined: May 25, 2012
Pronoun: he/him

Post Post #626 (ISO) » Fri Mar 20, 2020 11:00 am

Post by Dannflor »

In post 618, BBmolla wrote:I had lots of fun my game was nutty wp Auro for our victory in that one
User avatar
OkaPoka
OkaPoka
Survivor
User avatar
User avatar
OkaPoka
Survivor
Survivor
Posts: 17300
Joined: March 28, 2014

Post Post #627 (ISO) » Fri Mar 20, 2020 11:01 am

Post by OkaPoka »

https://discord.gg/3NUYfH

its not spicy but i hope more people release some of that content
Alyssa The Lamb
Alyssa The Lamb
Mafia Scum
Alyssa The Lamb
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2521
Joined: March 9, 2020

Post Post #628 (ISO) » Fri Mar 20, 2020 11:04 am

Post by Alyssa The Lamb »

I doubt ours will be released
User avatar
OkaPoka
OkaPoka
Survivor
User avatar
User avatar
OkaPoka
Survivor
Survivor
Posts: 17300
Joined: March 28, 2014

Post Post #629 (ISO) » Fri Mar 20, 2020 11:05 am

Post by OkaPoka »

:(
Alyssa The Lamb
Alyssa The Lamb
Mafia Scum
Alyssa The Lamb
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 2521
Joined: March 9, 2020

Post Post #630 (ISO) » Fri Mar 20, 2020 11:07 am

Post by Alyssa The Lamb »

I didn't pull punches and there's almost certainly stuff from all 4 games I'd rather not have known to everybody

sorry

normally I would be fully for it

EDIT: our discord had around 14k posts in it though so it would be a really hefty read regardless
Last edited by Alyssa The Lamb on Fri Mar 20, 2020 11:09 am, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
skitter30
skitter30
she/her
Last Laugh
User avatar
User avatar
skitter30
she/her
Last Laugh
Last Laugh
Posts: 36620
Joined: March 26, 2017
Pronoun: she/her
Location: Est

Post Post #631 (ISO) » Fri Mar 20, 2020 11:08 am

Post by skitter30 »

i don't think ours will be released either
Show
Hiatus once more.

'skitter is fucking terrifying' ~ town-bork about scum-me

'Skitter [was] terrifying to play against ngl' ~ scum-bork about town-me

'Going into lylo against scum!skit unprepared is like having someone force feed you dull razor blades. It's painful, and once it starts, you're pretty much dead' ~ NMSA

'Skitter you're a spirit animal's spirit animal' ~ slaxx
User avatar
Almost50
Almost50
Monkey Business
User avatar
User avatar
Almost50
Monkey Business
Monkey Business
Posts: 27276
Joined: November 13, 2015
Location: Right here.

Post Post #632 (ISO) » Fri Mar 20, 2020 11:09 am

Post by Almost50 »

In post 622, kuribo wrote:
In post 620, Gammagooey wrote:Congrats You Over A Disproportionately Small Gap and gg all!

I dunno if the Large Theme ever stopped being at least a little stressful to play in until the final flip but at least there was some relaxing and shitposting in the last few game days >_>


At least you didn't have to stand on the corpses of your dead scumbuddies while trying to figure out how to burn three mislynches in a game where 50% of the players were confirmed town to one another :lol:
Let me tell you this: Your play was impressive and the loss certainly was nothing of your own fault.

Modded 2 Opens & 2 Large Themed games successfully.
User avatar
KittyMo
KittyMo
Too Sparkly
User avatar
User avatar
KittyMo
Too Sparkly
Too Sparkly
Posts: 5142
Joined: March 17, 2009
Location: Oregon

Post Post #633 (ISO) » Fri Mar 20, 2020 11:19 am

Post by KittyMo »

Gammagooey on Jan 17 on Old Hat discord wrote: if you post this on beginning of day 2 it will mean the world to me
Image
Alt of Ariel | MafiaScum wiki volunteer contributor & sysop | Identity (Mish Mash) is back | Speakeasy Secret Santa

"plz don't swear" -- N
"Do people just not appreciate the good old wall of text anymore?" -- Cheery Dog
User avatar
gobbledygook
gobbledygook
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
gobbledygook
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 7861
Joined: July 24, 2019

Post Post #634 (ISO) » Fri Mar 20, 2020 11:30 am

Post by gobbledygook »

Congrats Skitter, Almost, Amrun, and JJH!!

I wish I wasn’t scum in my game :(
User avatar
gobbledygook
gobbledygook
Jack of All Trades
User avatar
User avatar
gobbledygook
Jack of All Trades
Jack of All Trades
Posts: 7861
Joined: July 24, 2019

Post Post #635 (ISO) » Fri Mar 20, 2020 11:31 am

Post by gobbledygook »

Auro such a pain in the tail feathers :lol:
User avatar
Chemist1422
Chemist1422
Chesto berry
User avatar
User avatar
Chemist1422
Chesto berry
Chesto berry
Posts: 5510
Joined: February 15, 2019
Location: zzz
Happy Birthday!

Post Post #636 (ISO) » Fri Mar 20, 2020 12:14 pm

Post by Chemist1422 »

In post 633, KittyMo wrote:
Gammagooey on Jan 17 on Old Hat discord wrote: if you post this on beginning of day 2 it will mean the world to me
Image
this is the greatest thing I have ever seen
GTKAS

“you're an empty-glass-but-there-might-be-INVISIBLE-Water kinda guy” -Iprobablysuck
User avatar
Pine
Pine
In Your Head
User avatar
User avatar
Pine
In Your Head
In Your Head
Posts: 16763
Joined: February 27, 2011
Location: Upstate New York

Post Post #637 (ISO) » Fri Mar 20, 2020 12:22 pm

Post by Pine »

In post 597, Chemist1422 wrote:gg all!

are full standings going to be revealed?
Gay Mafia IV
UT Destroys Anime
Mini Normal
Neighbors Open
White Flag Open
Wins
cancel food
ankamius
the worst
Eddie Cane
dannfloor
3
The Marauders
Dr Easy Bake
Vorkuta
Titus
BBmolla
2
Wild Cards
Flavor Leaf
Jingle
RCEngima
Something_Smart
2
Busboy Revolution
davesaz
Reundo
Elsa Jay
Formerfish
1
Quick Attack
chennisden
Alisae
popsofctown
CheekyTeeky
3
Doomsday
panthaleon
chemist1422
tris
okapoka
4
Derp Wolves
Creature
Aristophanes
Nancy Drew 39
Auro
2
SubOptimal Math
nomnomnom
Iconeum
DrDoolittle
Espeonage
3
Ripple's Krazy Mistress Dunn
MariaR
Shadoweh
unwnd
Dunnstral
2
Old Hat
Gammagooey
hitogoroshi
Plum
KittyMo
3
The Lit Torches
DeasVail
Klick
Bellaphant
Cephrir
3
The Four Horsemen
kuribo
mastina
Xtoxm
Pine
3
Bird That Carries You Over A Disproportionately Small Gap
GuyInFreezer
Bitmap
RadiantCowbells
northsidegal
2
Team "Team" Team
Elements
Flopz
Hectic
Hopkirk
3
Tea Gathering Club
Volpe14
Ofrhz
teacher
Pisskop
3
Newb Kids on the Block
EspressoPatronum
Menalque
bob3141
gobbledygook
2
You Over A Disproportionately Small Gap
Almost50
jjh927
skitter30
Amrun
4
DFKN
Farkran
Kerset
NaCl
Dongempire
2

Here’s the tracking I was doing for the Four Horsemen. I don’t know the results of the surveys, of course. It was surprisingly close. I do know that had scum not been caught in Gay Mafia through a cascade of slips, POE and mech, kuribo would have secured our fourth win, and we’d have stood alone as the only 4-win team. Right down to the wire.

Four Horsemen forever!
"Cry havoc, and let slip the wombat of war!"

Act 3, Scene 1 of
Julius Caesar
, by W. Shakespeare
User avatar
Venus and Mars
Venus and Mars
They/Them
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Venus and Mars
They/Them
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 3596
Joined: November 16, 2019
Pronoun: They/Them

Post Post #638 (ISO) » Fri Mar 20, 2020 12:23 pm

Post by Venus and Mars »

In post 626, Dannflor wrote:
In post 618, BBmolla wrote:I had lots of fun my game was nutty wp Auro for our victory in that one
In post 635, gobbledygook wrote:Auro such a pain in the tail feathers :lol:
Yeah both Auro and Dann played great. I’m going to nom Cancel Food for a paragon scummie. That team had sick reads.
Hydra of Shiro and Nancy Drew 39
User avatar
OkaPoka
OkaPoka
Survivor
User avatar
User avatar
OkaPoka
Survivor
Survivor
Posts: 17300
Joined: March 28, 2014

Post Post #639 (ISO) » Fri Mar 20, 2020 12:25 pm

Post by OkaPoka »

In reality we were disproportionately small gap and skitters team was the bird lulululul
User avatar
Jingle
Jingle
For Whom the Bell Trolls
User avatar
User avatar
Jingle
For Whom the Bell Trolls
For Whom the Bell Trolls
Posts: 15221
Joined: July 17, 2013
Location: Texas

Post Post #640 (ISO) » Fri Mar 20, 2020 1:00 pm

Post by Jingle »

In post 637, Pine wrote:Here’s the tracking I was doing for the Four Horsemen. I don’t know the results of the surveys, of course. It was surprisingly close. I do know that had scum not been caught in Gay Mafia through a cascade of slips, POE and mech, kuribo would have secured our fourth win, and we’d have stood alone as the only 4-win team. Right down to the wire.
Yeah, I realized that I had no reason to play my game a while before it ended because your team always beat ours after the mini normal ended, but Chemist picked right in the end anyway.
This is a Parachute.
User avatar
Formerfish
Formerfish
Busboy Revolutionary
User avatar
User avatar
Formerfish
Busboy Revolutionary
Busboy Revolutionary
Posts: 12855
Joined: July 1, 2013
Location: Pittsburgh, PA

Post Post #641 (ISO) » Fri Mar 20, 2020 1:10 pm

Post by Formerfish »

I don't think we will be releasing our pt.
Show
"Getting lost in the details of nothing..."

"FF, you're a dick, but you don't hit below the belt. So you're a dick about finding scum, not hurting the people who are playing the game. That's acceptable dickary." MaryJoLisa

Need advice? Ask a Fish.
User avatar
tris
tris
she
Splatoon Tetris
User avatar
User avatar
tris
she
Splatoon Tetris
Splatoon Tetris
Posts: 5723
Joined: January 7, 2019
Pronoun: she
Location: tris
Contact:

Post Post #642 (ISO) » Fri Mar 20, 2020 1:14 pm

Post by tris »

congrats!
User avatar
mastina
mastina
She/Her
False Prophet
User avatar
User avatar
mastina
She/Her
False Prophet
False Prophet
Posts: 16670
Joined: October 7, 2016
Pronoun: She/Her
Location: Between Snohomish and Monroe, WA
Contact:

Post Post #643 (ISO) » Fri Mar 20, 2020 1:43 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 593, OkaPoka wrote:Will team pts/ discs be released btw?
Not that I contributed much, but I don't have any objection to the release of mine--but my teammates will probably veto it. :(

In Lieu of that, my contributions to my team:
In post 6, mastina wrote:(quote removed)Damn. :P
I'll have the most fun in the mini theme if not the large theme, tho as a NRG member, I am obviously well-suited for the mini Normal.

Keep me the fuck away from the opens tho. :P

If last year is anything to go by, I'll be most effective as an advisor, not player, in the mini normal, and so long as what happened last time doesn't happen again (where the mini theme had more posts on D1 than any other game's entire length), most effective as a player, not advisor, in the mini theme.

So, top two games which we NEED to get in, are the two minis.
In post 7, mastina wrote:Also, if I rand scum, regardless of game, I should probably be swapped out, unless you guys want me to be a D1 lynch. My scumgame is incredibly versatile, sure, but in this format it'll be impossible for me to fool enough players from every team--the things some teams expect to be my towntells are the things other teams expect to be my scumtells, so no matter what I do, I will always be scumread by literally half the players in any given game.

As town, I can handle this, and even if I can't, it's not game-losing if I am a mislynch.

As scum, I can't, and my lynch would be quite costly to our team. I can maybe delay my lynch. D2, maybe D3. Heck, if I break my holiest of holy rules and lie as scum on my roleclaim, wifom could carry me to D4. But if I roll scum, I WILL be lynched, and not even you being my teammate can stop that, Pine.
In post 10, mastina wrote:(quote removed) Saaaame. Pretty sure I have, like, a 0% winrate for opens or damn near close to it, with any wins in spite of my contributions rather than because of them. :P
In post 16, mastina wrote:I think we should put the minis as our top priority since we MUST have a player in the large theme regardless.
So, top priority, mini theme me I guess;
Second priority, ?Pine? for the mini normal,
Third priority ?xtoxm? for the large open;
Fourth and last priority, kuribo for the large theme.

Then again I might be totally misunderestanding how things work so if I am then promptly ignore me. :P
In post 23, mastina wrote:AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!

HEY, PINE!
YOU WILL NOT BELIEVE WHAT ROLE I JUST GOT FOR TEAM MAFIA.
In post 24, mastina wrote:I'm just waiting for confirmation that I can quote it in here but hot damn.
Xtoxm will also get a huge laugh out of it.
In post 25, mastina wrote:Actually, reading TM rules, this should be allowed:
-------- Original Message --------
Subject: TM2020 | Untrod Tripod Destroys Anime | Role PM
Date: Wed Jan 01, 2020 6:23 pm
From: PenguinPower
To: mastina
PenguinPower wrote:
琴浦 春香 (Haruka Kotoura)
Image


Welcome, mastina! You are 琴浦 春香 (Haruka Kotoura), a
MafiaScum Anime Avatar Resistance Fighters (MAARF)
member.

Your Abilities
  • MAARF Tactical Response Unit
    : During the day phase, you may use this unit to vote to lynch one player.
  • Clairvoyance
    : During the night, you may target one player. If successful, you will become neighbors with this player and receive a neighborhood PT which you may talk in at any time. Your action will fail if your target is not aligned with
    MAARF
    . You may do this once during the game.
Your Win Condition
  • Make MafiaScum Safe Again
    : You win when all threats to MAARF have been eliminated and there is at least one MAARF member alive.
Please confirm by responding to this PM stating your alignment and character name.

The game thread can be found here.

Good luck, have fun, and save our Anime Avatars.
In post 26, mastina wrote:Jingle
Gamma Emerald
Alisae
chemist1422
Shadoweh
hitogoroshi
Klick
mastina
Bitmap
ofrhz
Menalque
jjh927
Kerset

Playerlist for my game.

In my personal opinion, candidates for masonry:
Jingle
Alisae
Shadoweh
hitogoroshi
Menalque
jjh927

I'm thinking of opening the game by just going "Hi guys I am a mason :]" and then if questioned on it cheekily saying that my masonbuddies are Pine, Xtoxm, and kuribo.
In post 28, mastina wrote:Pine, roleblockers are a thing.
Rolestoppers are a thing.
When there is a chance of a false guilty, but an absolutely ZERO chance at a false innocent, respectably: we want an innocent.
An innocent is indisputable; there is no way we can get a false innocent on scum.
There are MANY ways we could get a false guilty on town. Commuters. Hiders. Ascetics. Roleblockers. Rolestoppers. Probably more!
In post 30, mastina wrote:(quote removed)No?
A cop gets a hard guilty, a hard innocent, or a hard no result.
A guilty is an unambiguous guilty. No such thing as an unclaimed miller, so if you get a scum result, you know you hit scum.
An innocent is an unambiguous innocent. No such thing as a godfather nowadays, so if you get an innocent result, you know you hit town.
A No Result is an unambiguous failed investigation. You know what happened; your action was unsuccessful.

But my role has no way of differentiating between a guilty, and a No Result.
There's zero way to tell absolutely which is which.
You can assume.
You can guess.
But you cannot KNOW.

But I digress, semantics are semantics, target town regardless. :P
My preference is to target a town player who we would work well with.
I can work well with Jingle; I can probably work well with jjh or Menalque; I might work well with Alisae; I included Shadoweh and hitogoroshi because while I personally don't see myself working well with them, I can see you as my team working incredibly well with them and their teams.
In post 34, mastina wrote:(quote removed)The problem with Jingle is that he'll be nightkilled; the problem with jjh is much the same. :P
An inno on someone who ends up a corpse is a little...redundant.

I WANT to, I just have reservations based off of that.
In post 38, mastina wrote:Flavor Leaf
Jingle
RCEngima Something_Smart
^This team has 3/4 members who can work really really well with me. The problem is they are likely getting nightkilled. Jingle would be my top choice otherwise.

davesaz Formerfish Elsa Jay
Gamma Emerald

^None of these players I'd expect to work well with.

popsofctown wgeurts
Alisae
chennisden
^Everyone on this team would be good to work with.

Vex Vience okapoka
chemist1422
tris
^The closest this team has to someone good to work with is Chemist or tris and neither of them are exactly excellent choices.

MariaR Krazy
Shadoweh
Dunnstral
^Everyone on this team is worth working with. The synergy with Krazy in particular is desirable. My one concern: they could die early.

hitogoroshi
Gammagooey KittyMo Plum
^This team is godly good, though my concerns are both that they'll die early and also that I personally wouldn't synergize well with them even though you as my teammates probably would.

Cephrir
Klick
DeasVail Bellaphant
^Very solid team overall; candidate?

RadiantCowbells northsidegal GuyInFreezer
Bitmap

^Very very very solid team overall but Bitmap is the weak link. If we did recruit it'd be purely for the RC/nsg/GIF access pretty much.

Volpe14
Ofrhz
Pisskop teacher
^Honestly don't see a reason to target anyone here.

gobbledygook
Menalque
bob3141 EspressoPatronum
^Menalque is literally the one and only player on this team that is worth talking to in my opinion, but he's also very solid to get and there's also the fact that Pine is a neighbor with bob to consider; it might be actually worth considering this as a target purely for that alone.

skitter30 mathdino Almost50
jjh927

^This would be a GODLY good team to get, the only problem is...jjh is likely going to eat a nightkill.

Farkran Dongempire
Kerset
NaCl
^Don't see anything appealing in this group.

(Small confession--part of the reason I opted for targeting Menalque is that we were neighbors with bob in the other game.)
In post 43, mastina wrote:Well there's your scumgame! :P
In post 44, mastina wrote:I'll give you a game plan for the game once I am available. Need to do my write ups.
In post 51, mastina wrote:Will do when I have more time and am more lucid.
Right now, quick note; I really really really want to neighborize Menalque.
(Like I said, this was in large part due to having a neighborhood with the same group in a different game.)
In post 55, mastina wrote:So in my game I am town reading Jingle on the basis of he's being so blatantly opportunistic that he can't actually be scum. :P
In post 66, mastina wrote:Also, to convey requests from my game:
Pine:
Bitmap wants to hear from you.
Xtoxm:
Alisae wants to hear from you.

I did tell them that my game was our team's bottom priority so don't sweat it if you can't, but just figured I'd convey their requests anyway even though I don't expect you to give me anything for my game right now. :P (I'm expecting to go solo until D2 after which point due to my role I imagine y'all would be considerably more invested.)
In post 89, mastina wrote:I am a failure of a teammate and I am sorry I will try when I am actually more lucid and slightly less bogged down to not be deadweight.
In post 117, mastina wrote:(quote removed)I'M SORRY I COULD GET THEM WITH LIKE AN HOUR OF FREE TIME DEVOTED TO THE SUBJECT BUT I SO FUCKING SUCK SO FUCKING HARD BECAUSE I AM NOT GIVING THEM WHICH IS WHY I SAID I AM A TRASH TIER DEADWEIGHT TEAMMATE WHO IS AN LVP OF THE TEAM :cry:
In post 118, mastina wrote:(quote removed)Oh.
I am always in favor of killing really damn strong town players when they are wrong on their reads, as that is free ammo for the
whole rest of the game
to weaponize.

So hell yes, kill RC early.
In post 141, mastina wrote:(quote removed)This will help me feel less like a failure so hopefully I can do that soon.
In post 154, mastina wrote:So I didn't get a Menalque neighborhood in spite of submitting that as my night action.
I know jjh didn't target me because jjh's role was an Alien, roleblocking AND rolestopping the target...
...And last night, someone successfully targeted me and made me bulletproof through the end of N2. Meaning my failure wasn't due to being roleblocked by jjh.
In post 156, mastina wrote:If I immediately fullclaim, then Menalque can tailor his claim to mine--claim to be a commuter, hider, or ascetic, none of which he gets lynched as for claiming.
If he claims any role with a gun, or to have visited jjh tho, then he guessed wrong at the nature of my guilty, confirming that it IS a guilty.
Menalque was online and posting at the same time I posted my claim.
So I should get a response from him and if I don't--the DGB saying rings true. :P
In post 162, mastina wrote:<3
And the scum won't be able to kill me because we lynched their strongman D1 and I'm bulletproof N2. :P
In post 163, mastina wrote:That said.
There is one downside to the guilty.
Because I claimed it immediately after daystart.
We have almost no information off of it.
Bitmap has a third scumbuddy. Two scum dead on D2 is nothing to sniff at, but half the players didn't get to post D2 and of them, most of them didn't post until after the guilty, so we've got no true lead on the final scum.

I feel like lynching Bitmap/Kerset is something that we should probably do as a "just in case"--there's actually a high chance Mena told the truth about there being two deepscum. We should lynch Bitmap/Kerset JUST in case it's just that easy and is them. But we should also be prepared for looking for the scum outside of there.

I feel like Chemist contributing to the guilty in the way he did was town-indicative.
Klick's contributions are in my opinion, not alignment-indicative. They don't look like something scum wouldn't give; they don't look like something that give an real true insight into alignment.
Kerset's contribution is mostly nai but might be vaguely newbtown. I still want to lynch the slot as a precaution, just in case, but I don't think it's actually a scumslot anymore.

So there's one scum to find.
And anyone except for Chemist and I could be it.
I think, to be honest, a thorough rereading of D1 is in order.
In post 165, mastina wrote:Btw, Mena voted hito, Gamma/Reundo, and Klick, as his votes throughout the day, almost never moving his vote.
The Reundo vote was obviously the bus vote; the question would be, did Mena do distancing with his third buddy on D1?

I want to check out on some players' interactions as well. Specifically the sort regarding the likes of hito, Shadow, Alisae, Jingle.
If Bitmap isn't scum, I'd actually think that the scum would be in one of those, outside chance of Klick.
In post 166, mastina wrote:(Yes I know. Six players who I am seriously focusing on, with a seventh in the peripheral. That's not great. Also I forgot ofhrz in the above, so make that seven, with an eighth in the peripheral. I literally need to recheck everyone at every moment in context of trying to figure out what scum were doing. Did they double-bus on D1, or did they only have one on with the other off? I kinda sorta lean towards the double to be honest.)
In post 167, mastina wrote:{Jingle, Mena, Chemist} <- TOWN-LEAN
{hito, Alisae, Shadoweh, Kerset} <- NULL
{ofrhz, jjh} <- SCUM-LEAN
^This was Reundo's middle three lists, with me below as scum and Bitmap/Klick above.
I kinda want to apply rule of three here to Jingle and say that since Chemist is clearly town and Mena was scum, that Jingle is town, too.
I want to lynch Bitmap as a precaution, and if Bitmap isn't the last scum, then the last scum is probably in the grouping of {hito, Alisae, Shadoweh, Kerset, ofhrz}.
In that grouping, the names which stand out are hito, Ali, Shadoweh, ofhrz; in that grouping, hito/Shadoweh didn't vote Reundo whereas Ali and ofhrz did.

So I kinda sorta have a first vague impression of lynch Bitmap; if he flips town, the most likely answer is a second deepscum; the most likely candidates are in the D1 Reundo wagoners because it was likely that Reundo was double-bussed.
In post 170, mastina wrote:Notably, ofhrz's activity this game is actually below what I would think it should be by the way. I was expecting ofhrz to have a multiple-page iso and shocked to see her posts at an unexpectedly low 80ish. A quick check of her game history indicates that this is a
possible
alarm bell since most of her towngames end with her having a two-page iso, but not in of itself an alarm bell because most of those have her living multiple days. In a game she died N1, her post count was comparable, but I still feel it worth mentioning and investigating. Because I know she can produce over a hundred posts in a day phase in a mini.
In post 171, mastina wrote:(quote removed)Actually now would be the perfect time.
We can't die in my game N2, and D1 is the day that we need to review closely so a fresh set of eyes would be a godsend.
In post 172, mastina wrote:When it comes to ofhrz, most of my initial reactions to her analysis say that in isolation, "yes this looks like a likely third if Bitmap is town".
My main source of hesitance; many of the things which I am thinking look like scum, were things I remember thinking were scum in Anyone Can Post, when they weren't.
In post 175, mastina wrote:I'm running out of motivation steam to RIGHT NOW analyze my game (not necessarily a bad thing, mind you, as it'll allow me to focus elsewhere :P), but when I did, I iso'd Jingle and what I read made me still think town. I didn't read his whole iso though, just the first half of it or so.
In post 177, mastina wrote:
In post 167, mastina wrote:{Jingle, Mena, Chemist} <- TOWN-LEAN
{hito, Alisae, Shadoweh, Kerset} <- NULL
{ofrhz, jjh} <- SCUM-LEAN
^This was Reundo's middle three lists, with me below as scum and Bitmap/Klick above.
I kinda want to apply rule of three here to Jingle and say that since Chemist is clearly town and Mena was scum, that Jingle is town, too.
I want to lynch Bitmap as a precaution, and if Bitmap isn't the last scum, then the last scum is probably in the grouping of {hito, Alisae, Shadoweh, Kerset, ofhrz}.
In that grouping, the names which stand out are hito, Ali, Shadoweh, ofhrz; in that grouping, hito/Shadoweh didn't vote Reundo whereas Ali and ofhrz did.

So I kinda sorta have a first vague impression of lynch Bitmap; if he flips town, the most likely answer is a second deepscum; the most likely candidates are in the D1 Reundo wagoners because it was likely that Reundo was double-bussed.
So in spite of my losing motivation I did iso Shadoweh and came to the conclusion: possible scum but also very possible town. That might sound like it was wasted effort, but when doing the iso it made me more or less have the thought of,
"I really want to double down on the last scum being either Bitmap, or one of those four". I legit think that it's either Bitmap, or one of {hitogoroshi, Alisae, Shadoweh, ofhrz}.
My first instinct is to strongly lean towards it being ofhrz.
If we have nine/ten alive tomorrow, we'll have four lynches available--we can't lynch all five slots, but we can lynch 4/5. I think that legit gives us the best odds at winning here.
In post 178, mastina wrote:Basically, my thoughts so far:
Haven't gotten this 100% yet but my first inclination is Klick is town.
It'll never be absolutely 100% yet but I strongly feel that Jingle is town.
I weakly feel that Kerset is town.
I am basically 100% certain Chemist is town, strongest townread here by far.

Given those reads, that leaves one scum in {Bitmap | ofhrz, hitogoroshi, Alisae, Shadoweh}.
I iso'd ofhrz and it looked strongly scum, but I hold reservations in that it also reminded me of when I thought ofhrz looked strongly scum in Anyone Can Post.
I iso'd Shadoweh and it looked possible scum, but also possible town; the iso didn't help me read HER slot, but made me feel like doubling down on the above conclusions.
In post 179, mastina wrote:Reading hito's iso, my thoughts there are immediately, "possible scum, but
probably
not"; his iso immediately looks like he's not scum with Menalque. Their interactions there
could
be scum-scum; hito is a scum player of the highest caliber and Menalque is an excellent prodigy of scumplay. I objectively look at it and see, "yes, this could in fact be scum-scum", but I get strong gut vibes of it not being scum-scum interactions.

(I skipped Alisae and jjh isos. I'm isoing the one-page isos because I don't have the willpower to read two-page isos especially not ones which don't include quotes where you have to manually check on the post to see what they are talking about, and both jjh/Ali are notoriously guilty of this trait regardless of alignment.)
In post 180, mastina wrote:(Writeup will include extra if there's no kill, for the "surprise motherfuckers, guess what the gift was to me N1? I'm bulletproof, bitches!", more or less.)
Spoiler: writeup for D3

Code: Select all

So obviously I am pretty much conftown and given that, people might be inclined to want my input and value it disproportionately. I would somewhat discourage that.
I might've caught a scum D1 and D2 but I have sincere doubts I'll have caught the third.
My teammates might catch the third; they have fresh sets of eyes to go over the critical D1.
The rest of the town players in this game with their teammates probably will catch the third; their teammates have mostly-fresh eyes to go over the critical D1 and I expect this is where the best scumhunting will come from, other slots in the game bouncing ideas off of their teammates.

But.
Push come to shove.
If you [i]have[/i] to place an increased weight on my feedback, it would be thus:
I don't actually want to lynch Bitmap today. I think that Bitmap shouldn't reach lylo. If Bitmap reaches lylo, autolynch the slot. But Bitmap should be lynched in 5/6p, or 7/8p (tomorrow). There's two reasons for this. The first is for the information of the slot being town; the second to keep the "was it really that easy?" question settled. I don't think we need to lynch Bitmap today and I don't think we should, but I do think Bitmap should be lynched as a precautionary measure to help clarify the game--just...not today, instead tomorrow.

Do I think Bitmap is scum and the game is that easy? It's at least 35% or so [i]possible[/i], but with that percentile, I wouldn't call it probable. High enough that I don't want Bitmap alive in lylo, but low enough that...actually. Surprise surprise. I don't want Bitmap lynched today. There's a far higher chance Bitmap is town, than there is that Bitmap is scum, in my eyes.

Right now, I am mostly looking in the grouping of {ofhrz, Shadoweh, hitogoroshi, Alisae} as containing the last scum.

Klick is excluded from this because of what amounts to gut and isoing other players in the game (among them, Reundo's readslist; I don't think Reundo lists a second scumbuddy as a top townread and that is among the reasons why I lean against Bitmap being scum right now). I just got the overall feeling of his slot being town.

Chemist is excluded because Chemist is my top townread, obviously town from everything including being the only slot yesterday who had an actually alignment-indicative handling of it in my opinion and whose handling of it was immensely town. This dude radiates obvtown to me--so if you think this slot is scum, then if you are right you'll need to ignore me. :P You're more than free to because like I said, I don't think I'll actually catch the last scum. But if you were to listen to me, Chemist is my strongest townread.

Jingle is excluded because I did a rule of 3 to Reundo's townread list, where he listed Menalque in the same tier as Chemist, top townread, and Jingle. Then, when I iso'd Jingle, everything just seemed town from him.

Kerset is excluded for similar reasons to Klick--mostly gut with a side of isoing other players in the game, and thinking that the slot is less likely to be scum.

That leaves the four mentioned above, and Bitmap.
If you sheep me, and with a precautionary lynch on Bitmap, you can lynch 3/4 of them.

Right now, my preference would be ofhrz > Shadoweh > hitogoroshi with Alisae deliberately left as unsorted in this list because fuck reading Alisae, I don't care if I'm conftown, I am not going to pretend that I can try this in good faith and come to an actually informed stance on em.

To put it another way--I am deliberately avoiding giving analysis on Alisae, but to give thoughts on the others:

When I isoed ofhrz, her iso looked like the very best fit for being the third scum. My main source of hesitation is, "the things I am looking at which look like scum, I remember thinking looked like scum in Any Non-Dead Person Can Post, when they weren't". Basically, while that past experience does make me question the accuracy of my scumread, in isolation, this game separate from others, ofhrz sticks out as the most suspicious of the three that I've analyzed by far.

When I isoed Shadoweh, her iso was a whole bunch of, "this could be scum, but also could be town", with zero inkling as to which way it would lean. She's an utter dead zone in terms of reads. It's possible she's the last scum; it's possible she's town; I can't tell the difference in spite of having tried.

When I isoed hitogoroshi, immediately I could tell: "this [i]could[/i] in [i]theory[/i] be scum, but is almost certainly not"--hitogoroshi is a top-tier scum player and Menalque is an upcoming prodigy of scumplay. Their interactions could thus be scum theater with them slow-rolling intricate, dynamic interactions that naturally weave themselves into a perfect storm where they both look town from it but if one of them were to flip scum the other wouldn't. That [i]could[/i] be the case, because hitogoroshi is that good and deserves a healthy amount of respect, and Menalque is probably that good.

But while they could be scumbuddies, everything about their interactions suggests that they aren't. Everything in that interaction, strongly, makes it look like they aren't. I can see them being scum, but the narrative for it requires a specific narrative that takes specific interpretations of facts that leads to a narrative that is most definitely a violation of occam's razor--an interaction that by necessity requires paranoia, because on its own, it looks town. He deserves healthy paranoia, sure, yes, respecting his skill as a scum player does warrant a certain level of caution...but there is such a thing as too much caution and my inclination is that calling him scum is exactly that, too cautious, which is why he's the least-scummy of the three that I have analyzed.

I'd love to analyze Alisae, but I personally cannot do that--I'm leaving that to my team and the rest of y'all, so I am trusting my team and the rest of you to get that read right for me so that I don't have to.

So those are my basic thoughts, but to stress it again; just because I'm conftown doesn't mean you should sheep this analysis because while I did try to solve, put my utmost thought into it, at this point y'all are probably more likely to have the correct third scum than I am.
(I will continue to edit this.)
In post 181, mastina wrote:Adding to my thoughts on Kerset being town: I doubt that Kerset calls his scumbuddy a 'bully', and lean towards the opinion that the early fos on Mena wasn't distancing. Kerset was one of the few to have Menalque as an early suspicion in fact. In fact, Kerset was pushing Menalque as scum the whole game. It could've been, a la Star Wars Rogue One, the scum who was meant to take the fall for the deepscum, setting up the deepscum for success...only to have the deepscum be cop guiltied...

...But far far more likely is that Kerset is just town.
In post 182, mastina wrote:
Spoiler: writeup for D3

Code: Select all

So obviously I am pretty much conftown and given that, people might be inclined to want my input and value it disproportionately. I would somewhat discourage that.
I might've caught a scum D1 and D2 but I have sincere doubts I'll have caught the third.
My teammates might catch the third; they have fresh sets of eyes to go over the critical D1.
The rest of the town players in this game with their teammates probably will catch the third; their teammates have mostly-fresh eyes to go over the critical D1 and I expect this is where the best scumhunting will come from, other slots in the game bouncing ideas off of their teammates.

But.
Push come to shove.
If you [i]have[/i] to place an increased weight on my feedback, it would be thus:
I don't actually want to lynch Bitmap today. I think that Bitmap shouldn't reach lylo. If Bitmap reaches lylo, autolynch the slot. But Bitmap should be lynched in 5/6p, or 7/8p (tomorrow). There's two reasons for this. The first is for the information of the slot being town; the second to keep the "was it really that easy?" question settled. I don't think we need to lynch Bitmap today and I don't think we should, but I do think Bitmap should be lynched as a precautionary measure to help clarify the game--just...not today, instead tomorrow.

Do I think Bitmap is scum and the game is that easy? It's at least 35% or so [i]possible[/i], but with that percentile, I wouldn't call it probable. High enough that I don't want Bitmap alive in lylo, but low enough that...actually. Surprise surprise. I don't want Bitmap lynched today. There's a far higher chance Bitmap is town, than there is that Bitmap is scum, in my eyes.

Right now, I am mostly looking in the grouping of {ofhrz, Shadoweh, hitogoroshi, Alisae} as containing the last scum.

Klick is excluded from this because of what amounts to gut and isoing other players in the game (among them, Reundo's readslist; I don't think Reundo lists a second scumbuddy as a top townread and that is among the reasons why I lean against Bitmap being scum right now). I just got the overall feeling of his slot being town.

Chemist is excluded because Chemist is my top townread, obviously town from everything including being the only slot yesterday who had an actually alignment-indicative handling of it in my opinion and whose handling of it was immensely town. This dude radiates obvtown to me--so if you think this slot is scum, then if you are right you'll need to ignore me. :P You're more than free to because like I said, I don't think I'll actually catch the last scum. But if you were to listen to me, Chemist is my strongest townread. His iso looks town the entire way, including him being one of the few slots to have a stance on Reundo which looks like a town stance and also having a stance on Menalque which looks anti-buddy.

Jingle is excluded because I did a rule of 3 to Reundo's townread list, where he listed Menalque in the same tier as Chemist, top townread, and Jingle. Then, when I iso'd Jingle, everything just seemed town from him.

Kerset was originally excluded for similar reasons to Klick--mostly gut with a side of isoing other players in the game, and thinking that the slot is less likely to be scum.
But upon an iso of Kerset, I've got to place Kerset as second-strongest town behind Chemist. I could go into the exact posts that elicited this change, but long story short: I doubt that Kerset calls his scumbuddy a 'bully', and lean towards the opinion that the early fos on Mena wasn't distancing. Kerset was one of the few to have Menalque as an early suspicion in fact. In fact, Kerset was pushing Menalque as scum the whole game. It could've been, a la Star Wars Rogue One, the scum who was meant to take the fall for the deepscum, setting up the deepscum for success...only to have the deepscum be cop guiltied...

...But far far more likely is that Kerset is just town.

That leaves the four mentioned above, and Bitmap.
If you sheep me, and with a precautionary lynch on Bitmap, you can lynch 3/4 of them.

Right now, my preference would be ofhrz > Shadoweh > hitogoroshi with Alisae deliberately left as unsorted in this list because fuck reading Alisae, I don't care if I'm conftown, I am not going to pretend that I can try this in good faith and come to an actually informed stance on em.

To put it another way--I am deliberately avoiding giving analysis on Alisae, but to give thoughts on the others:

When I isoed ofhrz, her iso looked like the very best fit for being the third scum. My main source of hesitation is, "the things I am looking at which look like scum, I remember thinking looked like scum in Any Non-Dead Person Can Post, when they weren't". Basically, while that past experience does make me question the accuracy of my scumread, in isolation, this game separate from others, ofhrz sticks out as the most suspicious of the three that I've analyzed by far.

When I isoed Shadoweh, her iso was a whole bunch of, "this could be scum, but also could be town", with zero inkling as to which way it would lean. She's an utter dead zone in terms of reads. It's possible she's the last scum; it's possible she's town; I can't tell the difference in spite of having tried.

When I isoed hitogoroshi, immediately I could tell: "this [i]could[/i] in [i]theory[/i] be scum, but is almost certainly not"--hitogoroshi is a top-tier scum player and Menalque is an upcoming prodigy of scumplay. Their interactions could thus be scum theater with them slow-rolling intricate, dynamic interactions that naturally weave themselves into a perfect storm where they both look town from it but if one of them were to flip scum the other wouldn't. That [i]could[/i] be the case, because hitogoroshi is that good and deserves a healthy amount of respect, and Menalque is probably that good.

But while they could be scumbuddies, everything about their interactions suggests that they aren't. Everything in that interaction, strongly, makes it look like they aren't. I can see them being scum, but the narrative for it requires a specific narrative that takes specific interpretations of facts that leads to a narrative that is most definitely a violation of occam's razor--an interaction that by necessity requires paranoia, because on its own, it looks town. He deserves healthy paranoia, sure, yes, respecting his skill as a scum player does warrant a certain level of caution...but there is such a thing as too much caution and my inclination is that calling him scum is exactly that, too cautious, which is why he's the least-scummy of the three that I have analyzed.

I'd love to analyze Alisae, but I personally cannot do that--I'm leaving that to my team and the rest of y'all, so I am trusting my team and the rest of you to get that read right for me so that I don't have to.

So those are my basic thoughts, but to stress it again; just because I'm conftown doesn't mean you should sheep this analysis because while I did try to solve, put my utmost thought into it, at this point y'all are probably more likely to have the correct third scum than I am.
In post 183, mastina wrote:Adding to Klick as town; Klick's early list had both Menalque and Gamma listed as nulls. That's not impossible for scum, it's just slightly less likely in my opinion. 672 felt genuine as well to me as being not-scumbuddies handling of the slot. 1048 was also good in my opinion. 1095 seems strongly anti-buddy, too. His handling of the Reundo wagon was something that I feel like was good as well. He thought that the reasons for wagoning Reundo were a stretch, but that wagoning Reundo was still a good idea for simpler reasons. Given that I have a mild suspicion of a possible double-bus (it's confirmed Menalque bussed Reundo and possible the second scum was there, too), this is the towniest possible stance to be honest. Is he my strongest townread? No, but I am still reasonably confident that Klick is town from what I've seen.
In post 184, mastina wrote:
Spoiler: writeup for D3

Code: Select all

So obviously I am pretty much conftown and given that, people might be inclined to want my input and value it disproportionately. I would somewhat discourage that.
I might've caught a scum D1 and D2 but I have sincere doubts I'll have caught the third.
My teammates might catch the third; they have fresh sets of eyes to go over the critical D1.
The rest of the town players in this game with their teammates probably will catch the third; their teammates have mostly-fresh eyes to go over the critical D1 and I expect this is where the best scumhunting will come from, other slots in the game bouncing ideas off of their teammates.

But.
Push come to shove.
If you [i]have[/i] to place an increased weight on my feedback, it would be thus:
I don't actually want to lynch Bitmap today. I think that Bitmap shouldn't reach lylo. If Bitmap reaches lylo, autolynch the slot. But Bitmap should be lynched in 5/6p, or 7/8p (tomorrow). There's two reasons for this. The first is for the information of the slot being town; the second to keep the "was it really that easy?" question settled. I don't think we need to lynch Bitmap today and I don't think we should, but I do think Bitmap should be lynched as a precautionary measure to help clarify the game--just...not today, instead tomorrow.

Do I think Bitmap is scum and the game is that easy? It's at least 35% or so [i]possible[/i], but with that percentile, I wouldn't call it probable. High enough that I don't want Bitmap alive in lylo, but low enough that...actually. Surprise surprise. I don't want Bitmap lynched today. There's a far higher chance Bitmap is town, than there is that Bitmap is scum, in my eyes.

Right now, I am mostly looking in the grouping of {ofhrz, Shadoweh, hitogoroshi, Alisae} as containing the last scum.

Klick was originally excluded from this because of what amounts to gut and isoing other players in the game (among them, Reundo's readslist; I don't think Reundo lists a second scumbuddy as a top townread and that is among the reasons why I lean against Bitmap being scum right now). I just got the overall feeling of his slot being town. But when I actually iso'd Klick, I got much, much stronger reasons.

Klick's early list had both Menalque and Gamma listed as nulls. That's not impossible for scum, it's just slightly less likely in my opinion. [post]672[/post] felt genuine as well to me as being not-scumbuddies handling of the slot. [post]1048[/post] was also good in my opinion. [post]1095[/post] seems strongly anti-buddy, too. His handling of the Reundo wagon was something that I feel like was good as well. He thought that the reasons for wagoning Reundo were a stretch, but that wagoning Reundo was still a good idea for simpler reasons. Given that I have a mild suspicion of a possible double-bus (it's confirmed Menalque bussed Reundo and possible the second scum was there, too), this is the towniest possible stance to be honest. Is he my strongest townread? No, but I am still reasonably confident that Klick is town from what I've seen.

Chemist is excluded because Chemist is my top townread, obviously town from everything including being the only slot yesterday who had an actually alignment-indicative handling of it in my opinion and whose handling of it was immensely town. This dude radiates obvtown to me--so if you think this slot is scum, then if you are right you'll need to ignore me. :P You're more than free to because like I said, I don't think I'll actually catch the last scum. But if you were to listen to me, Chemist is my strongest townread. His iso looks town the entire way, including him being one of the few slots to have a stance on Reundo which looks like a town stance and also having a stance on Menalque which looks anti-buddy.

Jingle is excluded because I did a rule of 3 to Reundo's townread list, where he listed Menalque in the same tier as Chemist, top townread, and Jingle. Then, when I iso'd Jingle, everything just seemed town from him.

Kerset was originally excluded for similar reasons to Klick--mostly gut with a side of isoing other players in the game, and thinking that the slot is less likely to be scum.
But upon an iso of Kerset, I've got to place Kerset as second-strongest town behind Chemist. I could go into the exact posts that elicited this change, but long story short: I doubt that Kerset calls his scumbuddy a 'bully', and lean towards the opinion that the early fos on Mena wasn't distancing. Kerset was one of the few to have Menalque as an early suspicion in fact. In fact, Kerset was pushing Menalque as scum the whole game. It could've been, a la Star Wars Rogue One, the scum who was meant to take the fall for the deepscum, setting up the deepscum for success...only to have the deepscum be cop guiltied...

...But far far more likely is that Kerset is just town.

That leaves the four mentioned above, and Bitmap.
If you sheep me, and with a precautionary lynch on Bitmap, you can lynch 3/4 of them.

Right now, my preference would be ofhrz > Shadoweh > hitogoroshi with Alisae deliberately left as unsorted in this list because fuck reading Alisae, I don't care if I'm conftown, I am not going to pretend that I can try this in good faith and come to an actually informed stance on em.

To put it another way--I am deliberately avoiding giving analysis on Alisae, but to give thoughts on the others:

When I isoed ofhrz, her iso looked like the very best fit for being the third scum. My main source of hesitation is, "the things I am looking at which look like scum, I remember thinking looked like scum in Any Non-Dead Person Can Post, when they weren't". Basically, while that past experience does make me question the accuracy of my scumread, in isolation, this game separate from others, ofhrz sticks out as the most suspicious of the three that I've analyzed by far.

When I isoed Shadoweh, her iso was a whole bunch of, "this could be scum, but also could be town", with zero inkling as to which way it would lean. She's an utter dead zone in terms of reads. It's possible she's the last scum; it's possible she's town; I can't tell the difference in spite of having tried.

When I isoed hitogoroshi, immediately I could tell: "this [i]could[/i] in [i]theory[/i] be scum, but is almost certainly not"--hitogoroshi is a top-tier scum player and Menalque is an upcoming prodigy of scumplay. Their interactions could thus be scum theater with them slow-rolling intricate, dynamic interactions that naturally weave themselves into a perfect storm where they both look town from it but if one of them were to flip scum the other wouldn't. That [i]could[/i] be the case, because hitogoroshi is that good and deserves a healthy amount of respect, and Menalque is probably that good.

But while they could be scumbuddies, everything about their interactions suggests that they aren't. Everything in that interaction, strongly, makes it look like they aren't. I can see them being scum, but the narrative for it requires a specific narrative that takes specific interpretations of facts that leads to a narrative that is most definitely a violation of occam's razor--an interaction that by necessity requires paranoia, because on its own, it looks town. He deserves healthy paranoia, sure, yes, respecting his skill as a scum player does warrant a certain level of caution...but there is such a thing as too much caution and my inclination is that calling him scum is exactly that, too cautious, which is why he's the least-scummy of the three that I have analyzed.

I'd love to analyze Alisae, but I personally cannot do that--I'm leaving that to my team and the rest of y'all, so I am trusting my team and the rest of you to get that read right for me so that I don't have to.

So those are my basic thoughts, but to stress it again; just because I'm conftown doesn't mean you should sheep this analysis because while I did try to solve, put my utmost thought into it, at this point y'all are probably more likely to have the correct third scum than I am.
In post 185, mastina wrote:Reading Menalque's iso, I just get the feeling I am right about the big four containing the last scum from posts like this one and of them ofhrz looks the worst of them.
But, like I said in the writeup; don't let my biases and lazy iso work bias you if/when you give your own readthrough and thoughts on the game. Fresh eyes aren't as fresh if I soil them with the poisoned well water of my vision. :P
In post 187, mastina wrote:The main thing which gives me doubt in Mena's iso about ofhrz being the scumbuddy: it would be Menalque diverting attention away from one scumbuddy (ofhrz) onto another (Gamma/Reundo). This sounds like the sort of "big-brain" type play that could be made, especially by an upcoming star of scumplay, but feels less likely to be made because to my knowledge--that's not something anyone actually does? Like...I've never heard of anyone, ever, diverting attention away from one scumbuddy in favor of bussing another.

I have heard
plenty
of cases where players were
accused
of doing this. Accused of diverting attention away from one scumbuddy in favor of bussing another; accused of the flipped scum player diverting away from one scumbuddy in favor of bussing another; etc. But as far as I can recall, these people were wrong each and every single time because nobody actually does that as far as I know.

Menalque might be the type of player who could pull it off as a first of its kind maneuver, but like...would he actually?

Which is why I say: the majority of Menalque's iso strongly suggests ofhrz as a scumbuddy, but things like this give me reasonable doubt on that conclusion because it requires a course of action I don't think I've ever seen an actual scum player actually pull off.
In post 188, mastina wrote:
Spoiler: writeup for D3

Code: Select all

So obviously I am pretty much conftown and given that, people might be inclined to want my input and value it disproportionately. I would somewhat discourage that.
I might've caught a scum D1 and D2 but I have sincere doubts I'll have caught the third.
My teammates might catch the third; they have fresh sets of eyes to go over the critical D1.
The rest of the town players in this game with their teammates probably will catch the third; their teammates have mostly-fresh eyes to go over the critical D1 and I expect this is where the best scumhunting will come from, other slots in the game bouncing ideas off of their teammates.

But.
Push come to shove.
If you [i]have[/i] to place an increased weight on my feedback, it would be thus:
I don't actually want to lynch Bitmap today. I think that Bitmap shouldn't reach lylo. If Bitmap reaches lylo, autolynch the slot. But Bitmap should be lynched in 5/6p, or 7/8p (tomorrow). There's two reasons for this. The first is for the information of the slot being town; the second to keep the "was it really that easy?" question settled. I don't think we need to lynch Bitmap today and I don't think we should, but I do think Bitmap should be lynched as a precautionary measure to help clarify the game--just...not today, instead tomorrow.

Do I think Bitmap is scum and the game is that easy? It's at least 35% or so [i]possible[/i], but with that percentile, I wouldn't call it probable. High enough that I don't want Bitmap alive in lylo, but low enough that...actually. Surprise surprise. I don't want Bitmap lynched today. There's a far higher chance Bitmap is town, than there is that Bitmap is scum, in my eyes.

Right now, I am mostly looking in the grouping of {ofhrz, Shadoweh, hitogoroshi, Alisae} as containing the last scum.

Klick was originally excluded from this because of what amounts to gut and isoing other players in the game (among them, Reundo's readslist; I don't think Reundo lists a second scumbuddy as a top townread and that is among the reasons why I lean against Bitmap being scum right now). I just got the overall feeling of his slot being town. But when I actually iso'd Klick, I got much, much stronger reasons.

Klick's early list had both Menalque and Gamma listed as nulls. That's not impossible for scum, it's just slightly less likely in my opinion. [post]672[/post] felt genuine as well to me as being not-scumbuddies handling of the slot. [post]1048[/post] was also good in my opinion. [post]1095[/post] seems strongly anti-buddy, too. His handling of the Reundo wagon was something that I feel like was good as well. He thought that the reasons for wagoning Reundo were a stretch, but that wagoning Reundo was still a good idea for simpler reasons. Given that I have a mild suspicion of a possible double-bus (it's confirmed Menalque bussed Reundo and possible the second scum was there, too), this is the towniest possible stance to be honest. Is he my strongest townread? No, but I am still reasonably confident that Klick is town from what I've seen.

Chemist is excluded because Chemist is my top townread, obviously town from everything including being the only slot yesterday who had an actually alignment-indicative handling of it in my opinion and whose handling of it was immensely town. This dude radiates obvtown to me--so if you think this slot is scum, then if you are right you'll need to ignore me. :P You're more than free to because like I said, I don't think I'll actually catch the last scum. But if you were to listen to me, Chemist is my strongest townread. His iso looks town the entire way, including him being one of the few slots to have a stance on Reundo which looks like a town stance and also having a stance on Menalque which looks anti-buddy.

Jingle is excluded because I did a rule of 3 to Reundo's townread list, where he listed Menalque in the same tier as Chemist, top townread, and Jingle. Then, when I iso'd Jingle, everything just seemed town from him.

Kerset was originally excluded for similar reasons to Klick--mostly gut with a side of isoing other players in the game, and thinking that the slot is less likely to be scum.
But upon an iso of Kerset, I've got to place Kerset as second-strongest town behind Chemist. I could go into the exact posts that elicited this change, but long story short: I doubt that Kerset calls his scumbuddy a 'bully', and lean towards the opinion that the early fos on Mena wasn't distancing. Kerset was one of the few to have Menalque as an early suspicion in fact. In fact, Kerset was pushing Menalque as scum the whole game. It could've been, a la Star Wars Rogue One, the scum who was meant to take the fall for the deepscum, setting up the deepscum for success...only to have the deepscum be cop guiltied...

...But far far more likely is that Kerset is just town.

That leaves the four mentioned above, and Bitmap.
If you sheep me, and with a precautionary lynch on Bitmap, you can lynch 3/4 of them.

Right now, my preference would be ofhrz > Shadoweh > hitogoroshi with Alisae deliberately left as unsorted in this list because fuck reading Alisae, I don't care if I'm conftown, I am not going to pretend that I can try this in good faith and come to an actually informed stance on em.

To put it another way--I am deliberately avoiding giving analysis on Alisae, but to give thoughts on the others:

When I isoed ofhrz, her iso looked like the very best fit for being the third scum. My main source of hesitation is, "the things I am looking at which look like scum, I remember thinking looked like scum in Any Non-Dead Person Can Post, when they weren't". Basically, while that past experience does make me question the accuracy of my scumread, in isolation, this game separate from others, ofhrz sticks out as the most suspicious of the three that I've analyzed by far.

When I isoed Shadoweh, her iso was a whole bunch of, "this could be scum, but also could be town", with zero inkling as to which way it would lean. She's an utter dead zone in terms of reads. It's possible she's the last scum; it's possible she's town; I can't tell the difference in spite of having tried.

When I isoed hitogoroshi, immediately I could tell: "this [i]could[/i] in [i]theory[/i] be scum, but is almost certainly not"--hitogoroshi is a top-tier scum player and Menalque is an upcoming prodigy of scumplay. Their interactions could thus be scum theater with them slow-rolling intricate, dynamic interactions that naturally weave themselves into a perfect storm where they both look town from it but if one of them were to flip scum the other wouldn't. That [i]could[/i] be the case, because hitogoroshi is that good and deserves a healthy amount of respect, and Menalque is probably that good.

But while they could be scumbuddies, everything about their interactions suggests that they aren't. Everything in that interaction, strongly, makes it look like they aren't. I can see them being scum, but the narrative for it requires a specific narrative that takes specific interpretations of facts that leads to a narrative that is most definitely a violation of occam's razor--an interaction that by necessity requires paranoia, because on its own, it looks town. He deserves healthy paranoia, sure, yes, respecting his skill as a scum player does warrant a certain level of caution...but there is such a thing as too much caution and my inclination is that calling him scum is exactly that, too cautious, which is why he's the least-scummy of the three that I have analyzed.

I'd love to analyze Alisae, but I personally cannot do that--I'm leaving that to my team and the rest of y'all, so I am trusting my team and the rest of you to get that read right for me so that I don't have to.

When I put in the time to read Menalque's iso, [url=https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?p=11488327#p11488327]posts like this one[/url] reaffirm my stance that the big four probably contain the final scum, and of them, ofhrz looks by far the worst of them in Menalque's iso. 
The main thing which gives me doubt in Mena's iso about ofhrz being the scumbuddy: it would be Menalque diverting attention away from one scumbuddy (ofhrz) onto another (Gamma/Reundo). This sounds like the sort of "big-brain" type play that could be made, especially by an upcoming star of scumplay, but feels less likely to be made because to my knowledge--that's not something anyone actually does? Like...I've never heard of anyone, ever, diverting attention away from one scumbuddy in favor of bussing another.

I have heard plenty of cases where players were [i]accused[/i] of doing this. Accused of diverting attention away from one scumbuddy in favor of bussing another; accused of the flipped scum player diverting away from one scumbuddy in favor of bussing another; etc. But as far as I can recall, these people were wrong each and every single time because nobody actually does that as far as I know.

Menalque might be the type of player who could pull it off as a first of its kind maneuver, but like...would he actually?

Which is why I say: the majority of Menalque's iso strongly suggests ofhrz as a scumbuddy, but things like this give me reasonable doubt on that conclusion because it requires a course of action I don't think I've ever seen an actual scum player actually pull off.

When it comes to thoughts from my teammates: Xtoxm wants to just lynch Bitmap and then next day, massclaim and assess the situation. (If we do that, that's not a bad choice I suppose, but we should all be on the same page. But this assessment of that plan is mine, everything in this specific parenthesis does not come from him.)

So those are my basic thoughts with what I've gotten from my team, but to stress it again; just because I'm conftown doesn't mean you should sheep this analysis because while I did try to solve, put my utmost thought into it, at this point y'all are probably more likely to have the correct third scum than I am.
In post 202, mastina wrote:I can help you there in a bit.
Internet is back. Don't have time tonight, but am in a better headspace, too, so.
Better headspace + consistent internet = can do more work.
In post 208, mastina wrote:I hope this isn't premature but if I was right and that was a confession...
...PRETTY sure that's a wrap on my game. :P
(I'll let the records show that in every Team Mafia game I have participated in, my game was a near-perfect town win. :shifty: )
In post 209, mastina wrote:(Admittedly, 2015 had zero to do with me but it was still a town stomp my game! It might've been in spite of me rather than because of me, but it was still a town stomp! And we all know the reason why 2018 was a perfect town win in my game. BUTSTILL THE FACT REMAINS. I AM A GOOD LUCK CHARM FOR TOWNS DAMMIT LEMME STICK TO THAT DELUSIONAL NARRATIVE OF MINE. :P)
In post 224, mastina wrote:(quote removed)Yep.
I am pretty sure it is Bitmap now for multiple reasons but if not...we have a good plan imo.
In post 242, mastina wrote:(quote removed)Honestly it was pretty apparently either a move directly from RC or a move directly inspired by RC in that pretty much the only way Bitmap wasn't told to make that move by RC is if Bitmap thought of it on his own while deliberately trying to channel RC. :P
That was literally it. :P
User avatar
jjh927
jjh927
Paragon of Mafia Hunters
User avatar
User avatar
jjh927
Paragon of Mafia Hunters
Paragon of Mafia Hunters
Posts: 12923
Joined: April 16, 2017

Post Post #644 (ISO) » Fri Mar 20, 2020 1:56 pm

Post by jjh927 »

My only regret is aliening Klick rather than Kerset

I was gonna do Kerset but I thought there was no way Kerset would do the kill, except he did the kill because he had a ninja

Double guilty day 2 with no scumkill would have been hilarious
"As best I can tell, jjh is some kind of wizard with mind control powers." -Jingle
User avatar
Alisae
Alisae
lolbalance
User avatar
User avatar
Alisae
lolbalance
lolbalance
Posts: 47104
Joined: October 31, 2016
Location: Cali~ (PST)

Post Post #645 (ISO) » Fri Mar 20, 2020 2:06 pm

Post by Alisae »

ggs :good:
GTKAS
| here.
User avatar
Venus and Mars
Venus and Mars
They/Them
Mafia Scum
User avatar
User avatar
Venus and Mars
They/Them
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 3596
Joined: November 16, 2019
Pronoun: They/Them

Post Post #646 (ISO) » Fri Mar 20, 2020 2:47 pm

Post by Venus and Mars »

@Mastina, I’m jus dying to know. Did you ever read our game and could you tell Krazy was scum in that? I was extremely frustrated by the Pine kill, because it looked like we were going to get a Krazy read from you.
Hydra of Shiro and Nancy Drew 39
User avatar
Auro
Auro
Survivor
User avatar
User avatar
Auro
Survivor
Survivor
Posts: 11076
Joined: October 9, 2018
Location: India

Post Post #647 (ISO) » Fri Mar 20, 2020 3:26 pm

Post by Auro »

In post 618, BBmolla wrote:I had lots of fun my game was nutty wp Auro for our victory in that one
Thanks!

@Gobble: I was hoping you were town for a large part of the game inspite of my scumread. Let's roll town together next time.

Congrats to the winning team, very well deserved!
User avatar
Auro
Auro
Survivor
User avatar
User avatar
Auro
Survivor
Survivor
Posts: 11076
Joined: October 9, 2018
Location: India

Post Post #648 (ISO) » Fri Mar 20, 2020 3:42 pm

Post by Auro »

Thanks to Dann and his team for keeping my sanity - without them I would've given up much earlier when being scumread. <3
User avatar
Auro
Auro
Survivor
User avatar
User avatar
Auro
Survivor
Survivor
Posts: 11076
Joined: October 9, 2018
Location: India

Post Post #649 (ISO) » Fri Mar 20, 2020 3:43 pm

Post by Auro »

I loved my teammates - pity that Volxen got busy and Creature didn't get a chance to play. Totally waiting for the next TM!
Locked

Return to “Team Mafia 2020”