Death Note: I’ll Be The One Writing Your Name

[Chemist1422]

*Unless Wooper has secretly been L all along

he hasn’t

[Evenstar]

Why hasn't Wooper flipped btw? Or did I miss that?

[Evenstar]

I figure a decent 50% chance that it's wooper's unflippedness keeping Light in the game as a stump, it'd parallel the Watari/L setup

[Evenstar]

*Unless Wooper has secretly been L all along

he hasn’t

yeah that's super unlikely I'm just paranoid

[Evenstar]

Do you really think this game is just "oh let me add two survivors that can win with town right here and voila!"?

sure looks that way yep

[Chara]

if I survive today I kill you and we both win 'cause Light doesn't count as dead yet, stop fucking this up

you can still win by killing me?

and i'm not "coming at you", just stating the situation as i understand it.
and forgive me if i don't fully understand how NLing today and having you kill me is beneficial to

my

wincon.

[Chara]

Why hasn't Wooper flipped btw? Or did I miss that?

i'm also not sure why, he's just said he has reason not to.

[Chara]

Do we know the order the death note was passed around?

we do, Even told us earlier.
she said it was Wooper > Chara > Chemist > Chara >

Bambi

Even

[Chara]

if I survive today I kill you and we both win 'cause Light doesn't count as dead yet, stop fucking this up

you can still win by killing me?

and i'm not "coming at you", just stating the situation as i understand it.
and forgive me if i don't fully understand how NLing today and having you kill me is beneficial to

my

wincon.

i just understood how you came to this conclusion, that's on me. i'm only town, i don't have any secondary wins.

[Chara]

What do you guys think of this post from Mordhaus when he outed himself? Do you think there are 3 mafia and 2 third party? 4 mafia and 2 third party looks unbalanced in a 15 player game.

there is probably only one mafia left, after going through this amount of the day i think it's safe to conclude that.

[Evenstar]

if I survive today I kill you and we both win 'cause Light doesn't count as dead yet, stop fucking this up

you can still win by killing me?

and i'm not "coming at you", just stating the situation as i understand it.
and forgive me if i don't fully understand how NLing today and having you kill me is beneficial to

my

wincon.

Ah, it was a falseclaim to try and throw off scum's parity calculations. Nice, nice.

[Evenstar]

Aight, time to cut the bullshit. Some accurate setup math for you all:
5 Town
1 Scum
1 Third Party

There are four cases here. I'll walk through them one by one.
1: Town lynches the last scum, and wins. I win as a survivor with Town. Everybody's happy
2: Town mislynches.
In this case, we're at 4 town, 1 scum, 1 3P going into night.
I kill Chara, and exit the game on my short wincon. -1 town, -1 3p. Edge case, Chara is scum and town wins, but realistically that never happens. We're now at 3 town 1 scum.
Mafia kill a town, -1 town. We're at 2 town 1 scum.

TLDR: Mislynching today means I win and y'all go to F3 LYLO.

3: Town sleeps.
Same as above except y'all go to F4 MYLO. Creature gets an extra investigation if he's Town and you sleep again at MYLO, so this is actually preferable to a ML for town.
4: Town lynches me.
At this point there's a big question mark, which is "What happens to my Death Note?"
Assuming it just disappears, then the Mafia kill a townie and it goes to 4 town 1 scum. I also weep gently, for I hath lost and been slain.

Why this looks bad for me:

1: Yeah, I have no

direct

reason to prefer lynching scum over town right now. So long as I live to night, I win. (Barring weirdness with Wooper's role.)
2: Yes, town does

technically

gain a lynch by dunking me today.

Why that doesn't hold up:

I'm literally in a fight for my life here. I need to convince everybody that it's better to lynch elsewhere today.
What's my best strategy to do that? Well...

Option 1: Play Neutral

Rely on everybody's general disaffection with the game and just sorta limp into a Creature lynch.

Chances:

Might work, but depends on everyone else being idiots. I

don't

think the rest of the players here are idiots. I'm mechanically favoured to be the lynch today, so

I'm

a lazy target. Trying to skate by is a bad plan here.

Option 2: Scumside

Push for a lynch,

any

lynch. Hammer any wagon that gets to L-1. Try to coordinate with the last wolf to dunk the weakest townie available.

Chances:

Ha ha no. The scum have strong reason to throw me under the bus here, and will no doubt do so at their first opportunity. Again, I'm lynchbait right now due to being a confirmed 3P as the game goes down to the wire; killing me is a hell of a lot better than letting the last scum get lynched and lose. Also, if town catches on to what I'm doing I'm just straight-up fucked. This is a greedy, stupid strategy.

Option 3: Townside

Actually fucking scumhunt. Try to lynch the last wolf. Scum are 100% willing to throw me under the bus anyway, why not return the favour?

Chances:

I've literally spent the whole game pursuing this strategy. I claimed D1, have shared a fuckton of information I didn't need to, have faithfully advised multiple Death Note holders how best to avoid letting scum get their hands on the book, and have been putting real effort into solving. Sure, Town might turn around and stab me in the back

anyway

, but in practice this is the best strategy available. It also speaks to my ethics and the way I prefer to play; as the saying goes, "coalition victory is the power of the weak."

This wall's long enough already so I'm going to break it here; I definitely have more to say though.

[Chemist1422]

fwiw I am, in fact, an idiot

so option 1 is definitely still on the table

[Evenstar]

Wow, shorter than I expected. Phoneposting does that I guess.

Okay, so.

Some important observations that people may have missed:

- AFAIK, nobody knows what happens to the Death Note of someone who's lynched.
- If I live, I get to pick who to hand the Death Note to tonight.
- Lynching me does

not

increase the number of mislynches town gets. It just stalls for a day.
- Stalling means that one of the towniest players - RCE or Chara probably - gets nightkilled, and can't participate in the lynch tomorrow.
- If I'm left alone today, I self-resolve as if town had spent a lynch on me. The same two people leave the game. (Me and Chara.)
- You'll also lose my contributions, and while I'm not town, I'm pretty much confirmed not scum.

Conclusion:

It's absolutely better to lynch for scum today than to lynch me.

- The fact that my wincon still treats Light as "alive" while treestumped implies that Light can go from "treestumped" to "dead."
- Wooper still hasn't flipped, and his flavour is "Kiyomi Takada"

according to the scum.

- I'm confirmed as Rem by multiple eye deals.
- Everybody else alive has flipped.
- Mikami Teru isn't in the game, but

Kiyomi Takada

is?
- Almost50 can still see and speak in every neighbourhood despite being treestumped.

Hypothesis:

Wooper is actually Mikami Teru. He's also scum. His lack-of-flip is keeping Light from transitioning from "treestumped" to "dead." The scum care about this because without Light able to spy on things, the Bambi, RCE, Chara & Chemist hood stops having to talk in the thread at all. The scum also lose their secure communications channel with me. (Yes, I'm talking with A50 in the notebook channel right now. He says "hi." (Actually, he says "how do you kill L?" mostly. It's getting kind of annoying.)

Guess what happens when I search for "Mikami" in the thread?

Yeah, youre Mikami

Vecna dies the night after saying this to Wooper. As they say,

interesting.

I'd say it's missing Kiyomi Takada and Kyosuke Higuchi.

Eva you should do this

nice my hood pal is town~!

Why does Wooper want me to try and flip as they role they supposedly are?

Ok.

Wooper is Takada.

I'm hated which means L-1 right now.

Fish's eye deal

does

report that Wooper is Takada. However, we explicitly know that this game has millers/godfathers: Vecna and Misa's roles are proof of that. I think it's reasonable to expect that a mafia godfather in this setup might report a different role on eye-deal investigation. We also have a bodyguard despite that making no sense against a Death Note kill, so the flavor argument doesn't hold.

In any case, there's an easy way to test it:

@Wooper: REPEAT IT IN RED: "Flip Me Mikami"

I will note that a similar chain of logic implicates Chara:
- Chara had the Death Note last night.
- There were two deaths last night: Vorkuta and Bambi Jay.
- Therefore Chara almost certainly killed Vorkuta with my Death Note.
- Light Yagami is not yet actually dead, and scum want to keep it that way, as discussed above.
- Vorkuta had the wincon of killing Light Yagami.
- Killing Vork also looks towny and helps Chara blend.

Conclusion: A theoretical Scum!Chara had means, motive and opportunity to kill Vorkuta yesterday.

This doesn't mean he's not town, but I

am

eyeballing the decision to kill Ryuk over me. I'm literally a executioner for Chara. If he had the ability to kill one of us, why

not

kill me? I guess because Ryuk was a likelier potential scum...?

- oh, and by the way, in the case where I'm the last scum the setup math works out like this:
1 Scum
6 Town

ML, I kill a townie at night, there is no other killing party:
1 Scum
4 Town

I now have to explain why either A: I didn't kill Chara or B: I killed Chara but didn't win. I'm absolutely cornered and am always the lynch. Even if it's me and a

secret lurking fourth scum ooooo

, it goes to F3.

[Evenstar]

*Vecna and Bambi's roles, brain fart.

[Evenstar]

fwiw I am, in fact, an idiot

so option 1 is definitely still on the table

I mean, sure, if you want

Feels a bit easy to me but as I said idgaf who gets lynched today so long as it's not me

[Evenstar]

Oh, from the scumthread, there's a couple things worth noting:

There is definitely one but more likely 2 third party roles. One is a serial killer, one is a hunter. Scum, as such, has decided to leave the obvious kills to the serial killer. There are only three of us, which means town has little power especially with the Dayvig outed, the high playercount, and the inconsistent nightkills.

Bambi is Near, although the claim doesn't make any sense since we have no godfather. Best guess, Bambi is a hunter looking for Light. Good luck, scumbuddies.

What do you guys think of this post from Mordhaus when he outed himself? Do you think there are 3 mafia and 2 third party? 4 mafia and 2 third party looks unbalanced in a 15 player game.

It's complete bullshit, ignore it.

[Wooper]

I can't flip. It's the side effect of my role. When I flip all of your minds will be blown and everyone dies.

Not really; my flip isn't useful yet

[RCEnigma]

Even makes a compelling case. I mean, it self resolves tonight. If it doesn't then we just lynch Even and gg. If it does then it's between creature and wooper anyway. Get rid of both in any order and town wins.

I think Vork died related to Kira btw and not from the death note. Ryuks name can't be written down.

[RCEnigma]

Flip, don't flip, don't care, town in 5-6.

[Wooper]

We shouldn't end the day yet actually

[Wooper]

Ya exactly its not actually material

[Evenstar]

VOTE: Unvote

Doing some tallying of claims and I think Creature might actually be town. If so, Chara scum...?

That or scum's doing some A+ narrative crafting here.

[RCEnigma]

Don't think scum gets shafted by having both 3p wincons tied to them directly.

[Wooper]

Is it bad that I was starting to worry about Chara as well..? :s