Raya36 wrote:I'm VT
Are you mafia Dunn?
Nope -- I'm the vigilante. I did some thinking, I think it's actually optimal for me to claim today -- who's going to shoot at me, at this point? Mafia and SK have to shoot at each other (theoretically...)
I got you to claim first just to see if you'd try to go for a vig claim (and I was/am sussing you)
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n0 - I holstered -- I don't believe in random shooting with no information, it's possible to hit scum sure, but sk has a possibility of being immune to the vig kill, and a shot on cop or doctor would really swing things against town (as we've seen here)
Result: Both kills were made by anti-town (obviously)
n1 - I shot MariaR. It was either her or Knightmare for the vig kill, maria looked just a little bit scummier because I was pretty sure she was able to hammer if she had wanted to, and I was seeing partner interactions there, and I figured it would be much harder to lynch MariaR than knightmare.
Well... I messed up here, I'm not sure if I would have walked back on my read on Maria later or what - probably not, honestly, after a knightmare scum flip
Result: Only two kills, so either my kill overlapped with one of mafia/sk, or mafia kill hit sk and didn't go through.
n2 - I shot at Paragon - my biggest scumread at the time based on knightmare wagon interactions.
Result: My kill failed due to the switch mechanic.
n3 - I shot at Galron - It was Galron, Looker, or Paragon, OR holster. I decided against holstering, I felt I had to take the risk to pull this back for town since we nolynched again, which wasn't in my plans. I went for Galron because I thought that end of day vote switch was really weird and a ploy to guarantee a nolynch.
Result: Again, only two kills. My kill overlapped or mafia hit sk.
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Posting related to my claim:
In post 352, Elmo TeH AzN wrote:VOTE: Knightmare
Oh Im going to kill spec cause I got nothing better to do at 545 Am.
Maria was killed by the SK for some reason.
My brain turned off here for a moment - obviously I knew I was vigilante, but I didn't understand how Elmo knew that mafia didn't kill MariaR (the person I shot at). I asked him if he was claiming vigilante at the time because my brain was thinking he was somehow possibly claiming my role/I mentally thought 'ok, so he wouldn't be claiming sk openly so'
I suspect that this in turn made anti-town players believe that I was NOT the vigilante - and trust me, if I were vt I'd never give away that I was non-vig, allowing anti-town to home in on that role - I'm very careful about that sort of thing. Anyway, this wasn't my intention, it was an accident, but it seems to have worked out for me -- I'm still alive.
In post 416, Dunnstral wrote:What looks too easy? I'm not sure what you're accusing us of. I voted Knightmare at deadline to try to avoid a nolynch - it wasn't my choice of a lynch yesterday. I think certain events point towards knightmare being scum (I'm not looking at night kills here), so today I want them dead for reasons other than deadline.
This is something I do sometimes as town pr - I didn't shoot at Knightmare, so I wanted to sort of soft that I didn't shoot at Knightmare and fail or something, implying that he would be sk, when that's not what happened - just in case Knightmare wasn't lynched, and I was killed at night.
In post 364, Dunnstral wrote:It looks to me like those are the mafia and sk kills, in either order (I could also see a vig shooting maria though)
Not very subtle, in hindsight.
In post 364, Dunnstral wrote:
In post 361, NDMath wrote:
Elmo TeH AzN wrote:
A vig taking a shot would be very reckless none the less and for once at least this game I am trying not to do that.
Can you explain why you think this because I strongly disagree?
The vig should definitely be shooting.
I definitely needed to be shooting.
Obviously getting some scum would have been nice, but, y'know.
In post 416, Dunnstral wrote:
Weak argument all around from Knightmare - again, i don't think he believes it, he's voting me because I became a viable alternative to his own lynch, in his eyes.
VOTE: Knightmare491
Very weak argument, and quite possibly rolefishing
In post 590, Dunnstral wrote:I have no idea who the SK is. I'm pretty sure we can get a mafia lynch today.
I have a crazy idea: Mafia and Vigilante both holster tonight
Let me explain why mafia needs to holster:
Lynching mafia brings us to 4:1:1 going into night. Let's assume that SK always shoots. If mafia and sk both shoot town, It's 2:1:1. Town cannot lynch, and has to no lynch and hope for cross kills.
Here's the kicker: If SK is immune to the mafia kill,
mafia can't win by bringing it to 2:1:1
. Town HAS to no lynch, even if it goes to 1:1:1.
I believe that mafia will not make a move that will likely lose them the game, just to screw town over. They need the SK dead, too.
Going into the day 3:1:1 is the only way for town to be able to lynch and potentially catch the SK.
Vigilante should not shoot: it's 50/50 on wether they'll be flipped in the first place: Best case scenario is vig shoots anti town BUT town has to no lynch to 3 alive anyway. And SK has a chance of being vig immune.
Thoughts?
I intended to follow this plan.
I further explained mech discussion in post
624
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So yeah, that's my claim in its entirety.
The play today: We no-lynch it. I'm going to holster my shot tonight - because if I shoot, we potentially end up with 2 players alive, resulting in, likely, a town loss.
Me not shooting means sk is forced to go for the mafia. Mafia is likewise going to be looking for the sk, very likely. And so, I might still be alive in final 3. If either faction tries to go for me, they do so while gimping themselves, I believe.
It's still a long shot for town winning. Of course, today we nolynch for the following reasons:
-Lynching the serial killer results in a town loss. Likewise, voting the serial killer and having them subsequently claim (I mean, we can't lynch them, after all.) might also result in a town loss, if scum quickhammer
-Scum are not likely to quickhammer someone who they believe to be town. The dynamics are kind of complicated, but basically they're afraid of losing to sk here (they are either immune to the mafia kill or the vig kill). In that same train of thought, I think the way the sk plays this day out will tell us a lot about what the sk is immune to.
-Our only options are lynching mafia, or nolynching. In order to lynch mafia, we need to also be voting with the serial killer. Which is... awkward, but not impossible. SK is probably fine with lynching mafia today, while pretending to be town.
Raya36 wrote:Both kills would probably have been easy mislynches which is interesting
Them both being town blows my mind. I've been looking at this game completely wrong.
