I took a little walk to re-evaluate and realized Persivul-scum isn't AS unlikely at all anymore either.
11:2 would explain why the dude is still alive.
It would also explain that popopo vs Persivul situation, AND THE FACT THAT I FKING SAID BACK THEN ALREADY THAT EITHER OF THEM COULD BE SCUM IN THAT SITUATION.
I felt so undecided but chose Persivul in the end.
It would feel hell of a lot better to know I was technically correct with my reads at that point, and the only thing that messed me over was the fact that I would've never ever dreamed of a 11:2.
"If Unah’s scum, consider me a random $20 on the ground, cuz I am pocketed." -Flavor Leaf to scum!Una
I just read (every word, not skimmed) the combined una/puppy ISOs.
Puppy is scum hunting. He doesn't know the answers and is looking for them.
Una is studiously riding the fence (post above is the latest example), never really pushing, always working to leave his options open.
I didn't sleep well last night and after all this I'm not going to vote in this state. Plus I'm going to do some meta diving. But the chance I'll change my mind is like 1-2%. I feel that I've done my due diligence and my position is well supported.
In post 1849, UnaBombaH wrote:I do not even care much which of you is the remaining scum.
This must've been a bs game for the scumteam to wiggle through anyway, and town was at a ridiculous situation because they couldn't have possibly solve the whole team because every good theory was based on 10:3.
Guess this is me saying that I'm not a fan of the Normal Queue anymore.
In post 1217, Tanner wrote:Okay. I have not slept the entire night (again...). So you get this angry-ish rant that I will type up over my coffee.
In post 1204, Tanner wrote:Una, if I gave you my side of why {town!Tanner + scum!mavs + scum!Persi} was unlikely (something you wonder in 1191, from which I got the impression you don't think all three of us are scum), would you consider voting popo?
I asked this of Una twice, I got ignored. Whatever, I'm going to type it anyway so that tomorrow I can point at it and say "I fucking told you so."
Imagine a scenario in which
I (Tanner) am Town, but Persivul is scum
. You with me? Ok. Have you
seen
my play this Dayphase? Look me in the eyes and tell me that, if Persivul is ever to flip scum, I am not immediately lynched after him. You can't. Because it's true. If Persi is to ever, EVER flip scum in this game, I have signed my own death certificate and will fall down right after him like a domino.
You still with me? Let's carry on.
It is Day 3, most likely 3v6. Do you know what scum!Persi's partners need to do to secure a victory?
(1) Sheep me onto popo. Choose literally any of my countless posts where I'm yelling how popo is a scumfuck and jump on that wagon. popo gets lynched and flips green.
(2) Day 4 is 3v4, with Persivul as outed scum. He is obviously immediately lynched.
(3) Day 5, you have 2v3. And you have poor ol' Tanner. Tell me I don't get lynched there after Persivul flipped red. Because I do. I am the most free mislynch in that lylo imaginable. Which is also the last mislynch scum needs to win this game.
Now, if scum!Persi's partners can win this game so easily, why oh why aren't scum!Persi's partners jumping onto popo's wagon under the shield of Tanner who will be turned into the 5p lylo fallguy?
Because they don't exist.
(or in simple terms because I guess this Town needs it: because Persivul is not scum.)
tl;dr of the above rant: if you think I am Town, you need to vote popo.
bonus round!
Persivul and mavs pretty much have to be the same alignment (as i have very simply explained. multiple times.). While their play this Dayphase is obviously unaligned, there is this following fun interaction that points in the direction of "Persi/mavs are not S/S":
Spoiler: tell me that (1) scum!mavs mixes up his partner's avatar with mine OR that (2) scum!mavs ever bothers to fake this interaction.
1. Two millers in a mini normal is extremely unlikely.
2. We had a miller claim.
3. We had a counter claim.
4. We lynch the first claim today.
5. If that lynch flips miller, we lynch the counter claim tomorrow.
Let's not overthink this.
In post 274, Persivul wrote:This situation - a D1 counterclaim - is what you dream of as town. Then when you finally get it, people insist on screwing it up.
In post 278, mavsfan41 wrote:Whoops...... sorry about that! You both have similar avatars. It was an honest mistake.
PERSIVUL’S 273 & 274 are on point. Thanks for the correction.
Lynching what is almost certainly scum day 1 is a blessing for town.
which brings us to my last point:
It is less than 24 hours left on the clock. We need a fucking lynch. Stop pussy-footing because you don't know whether you need to bus popo or not, be a man, and fucking VOTE.
there is an inactive slot in this game. we also don't know for sure there are 3 scum. this post is pure WIFOM.
even if all my thoughts have basically been wrong until this point
it still comes down to D3. did popo bus persi or was he trying to get a lynch in.
i will go and reread that phase again (again again!) but una holding back on bussing makes a lot more sense than popo and persi doing busplay for a long gambit
in 11:2 does bussing even make sense? scum would almost always be in the slots that didn't bus. that would be una, which would explain why he's kept me alive instead of killing me when i've suspected him all along
normally in lylo like this i woud go back and look at the d1 wagons and draw pretty green and red colors around all the flips. is that even worth my time when we had two millers and a IC and there was basically no normal wagon development?
In post 1860, CantHateAPuppy wrote:normally in lylo like this i woud go back and look at the d1 wagons and draw pretty green and red colors around all the flips. is that even worth my time when we had two millers and a IC and there was basically no normal wagon development?
Probably not. Here's something interesting from the VCs though:
We've lynched 4 town.
Una was the hammer on 3 of them.
which means: scum has to have known we'd get paranoid and under the right conditions might throw all reads out the window for a null f3
that would kind of make sense as a long-term strategy. if una is scum it's a pretty smart tactic, actually, because he could keep ignoring persi and dealing with all the players who were on the popo wagon
Persivul being so willing to push for me instead of acting the role he has assumed for the past three days?
Puppy not pushing for scum!Persivul agenda at all?
Meaning that the only reason Persivul is alive, is because he is scum.
Sorry for you bro.
You either win this because puppy doesn't see it and your gambit crosses the finish line with the last fuel-fumes, or you lose this because it was 11:2.
"If Unah’s scum, consider me a random $20 on the ground, cuz I am pocketed." -Flavor Leaf to scum!Una
Persi, I'm fine with you voting me here.
If you do that and puppy doesn't immediately hammer, I can feel better for knowing you were the scum after all.
"If Unah’s scum, consider me a random $20 on the ground, cuz I am pocketed." -Flavor Leaf to scum!Una
In post 1860, CantHateAPuppy wrote:normally in lylo like this i woud go back and look at the d1 wagons and draw pretty green and red colors around all the flips. is that even worth my time when we had two millers and a IC and there was basically no normal wagon development?
Probably not. Here's something interesting from the VCs though:
We've lynched 4 town.
Una was the hammer on 3 of them.
And scum!Una would want to have that prestigious title because..?
"If Unah’s scum, consider me a random $20 on the ground, cuz I am pocketed." -Flavor Leaf to scum!Una
In post 1872, UnaBombaH wrote:I dare you to vote me Persi.
If it's scum!puppy, you are not voting there today anyway, what with your FoS and all..
OK. I didn't want to put the replacement in the position of deciding the game, since that sucks and should really be my responsibility, but since you're double dog daring me... VOTE: Una
In post 1655, UnaBombaH wrote:Persivul isn't going to be lynched in this game, ever, based on setup spec. alone.
If Persivul is scum and someone tells me after the game that I'm stupid for thinking it'd be unfair for town to have two Millers, a red herring -quasi-Miller role and an IC and nothing else....well....
Guess I'm stupid then.
But I know this would likely be my last Normal game on site as well.
![:]](./images/smilies/icon_smiling.png "Cheerful Smile"){kind=icon}
