Open 787 || Lovers Mafia — Game Over


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Post Post #375 (ISO) » Thu Jul 23, 2020 8:41 pm

Post by Battle Mage »

I read Deimos ISO.

It's fucking Deimos and Innocentvillager lol

more news later
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2020 Stats - 31 completed games:

Survived to the end and won - 11
Nightkilled - 10
Survived to the end and lost - 6
Day-elimmed by majority - 4

winrate as scum: 78%
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Post Post #376 (ISO) » Thu Jul 23, 2020 10:42 pm

Post by Nash »

Battle Mage, can you explain your initial progression on NEE?
Why do you PoE Word as town and not consider a Word x Nash possibility like IV?
I still think it's probably Deimos for the way he white-knighted Norweg and how unusually scummy he's playing.
You mean it makes no sense for town!Deimos to confirm NEE as town?
im gonna put some dirt in your eyE
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Post Post #377 (ISO) » Fri Jul 24, 2020 2:14 am

Post by Battle Mage »

In post 376, Nash wrote:Battle Mage, can you explain your initial progression on NEE?
Why do you PoE Word as town and not consider a Word x Nash possibility like IV?
I still think it's probably Deimos for the way he white-knighted Norweg and how unusually scummy he's playing.
You mean it makes no sense for town!Deimos to confirm NEE as town?
I'd say it makes
less
sense for town Deimos to be interact as he did with Norweg. It's possible, but unlikely.

To be fair, I think Word is town because he's playing exactly as he did as town in our last game (you were there too, so can give a view). The only thing that pinged me about him was his weird suggestion to Norweg about switching together to Deimos. Reflecting on it now, I don't know how that would make sense from a Deimos-Word perspective, so let's just assume Word is town, and if he's scum then well played.

I'm not completely convinced you're town and will reread you, but at the moment I'd say from my experience of you, you look hella scummy as town, so it's probably just Deimos-IV as most likely. Of course we only need to get 1 right which helps somewhat.

I'm not gonna go back and recap Norweg and why he was so scummy, it'll just piss me off. :facepalm:
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2020 Stats - 31 completed games:

Survived to the end and won - 11
Nightkilled - 10
Survived to the end and lost - 6
Day-elimmed by majority - 4

winrate as scum: 78%
winrate as town: 55%
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Post Post #378 (ISO) » Fri Jul 24, 2020 2:34 am

Post by Battle Mage »

Word is town.

IV-Deimos is most likely.

Nash-IV is more likely than Nash-Deimos.

Therefore we should lynch IV.

Welcome other input.

T
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2020 Stats - 31 completed games:

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Nightkilled - 10
Survived to the end and lost - 6
Day-elimmed by majority - 4

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Post Post #379 (ISO) » Fri Jul 24, 2020 2:37 am

Post by Battle Mage »

In post 354, innocentvillager wrote:like even if this si wrong this is our best shot, a confirmed townie was almost certain this slot was scum, any other talking we do today will just muddy it and be scum influenced
surely you have your own opinions? No offence to Norweg, but he isn't the sort of player you should be blindly sheeping even if he flips town.
In post 355, innocentvillager wrote:Nash/word is possible but I think word/BM and Nash/BM are more likely
No hint of Deimos here then? I guess he is your lover?
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2020 Stats - 31 completed games:

Survived to the end and won - 11
Nightkilled - 10
Survived to the end and lost - 6
Day-elimmed by majority - 4

winrate as scum: 78%
winrate as town: 55%
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Post Post #380 (ISO) » Fri Jul 24, 2020 2:38 am

Post by Battle Mage »

In post 8, innocentvillager wrote:VOTE: Deimos okay boss!
In post 9, innocentvillager wrote:im trusting you, but if this is scum I take no personal responsibility, just fyi
Classic move, early RVS distancing from scum partner.
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2020 Stats - 31 completed games:

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Nightkilled - 10
Survived to the end and lost - 6
Day-elimmed by majority - 4

winrate as scum: 78%
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Post Post #381 (ISO) » Fri Jul 24, 2020 2:41 am

Post by Battle Mage »

This is a pretty shady looking ISO for the first part of Day 1. Multiple times protesting he's town, and just spamming the thread with jokes.
In post 17, innocentvillager wrote:hey guys I'm town
In post 19, innocentvillager wrote:
In post 18, NorwegianboyEE wrote:Luckily i got a town role pm
hey, me too! let's find the lovers together!
In post 20, innocentvillager wrote:wait a second, you could be lying about that and actually be the lover yourself?? do you have proof you got a town role pm??
In post 22, innocentvillager wrote:
In post 21, NorwegianboyEE wrote:are you truly with us?
I am aligned with the Town. So if you are part of the Town, I am truly with you, yes. But if you are a Lover, I am not truly with you, in fact. A difficult question indeed
In post 23, innocentvillager wrote:honestly I just want a high post count and to clutter the thread so everyone gets confused and I look like I"m participating
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2020 Stats - 31 completed games:

Survived to the end and won - 11
Nightkilled - 10
Survived to the end and lost - 6
Day-elimmed by majority - 4

winrate as scum: 78%
winrate as town: 55%
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Post Post #382 (ISO) » Fri Jul 24, 2020 2:49 am

Post by Battle Mage »

In post 27, innocentvillager wrote:alright here's my readslist at this point:

{innocentvillager}
{Battle Mage, word}
{Nash}
{Deimos, Norwegian}

To be clear I like Deimos and Norweigan for scum, I can't really see a Deimos Norwegian scumteam tho given the bus right out of the gate, idk Nash-Norwegian or Deimos-Nash makes more sense, I'll have to reread the thread and look for more associatives
Early distancing with Deimos again, although critically his vote was still on Norweg here, because he didnt want to actually lynch his lover buddy.

Emphasis on finding associatives, and the early assertion that bussing would mean people couldn't be lovers (IV noted that me and Deimos couldnt be scum together as I went for him early), suggests that if scum, he is highly likely to have adopted a distancing strategy, which makes it highly likely to be Deimos.
In post 28, innocentvillager wrote:any thoughts on a Deimos-Nash scumteam, Norwegian?
Again, distancing with Deimos here early.
In post 31, innocentvillager wrote:
In post 29, NorwegianboyEE wrote:
In post 27, innocentvillager wrote:I can't really see a Deimos Norwegian scumteam tho given the bus right out of the gate,
The fuck are you talking about?
oh sorry, I mistook you for Battle Mage, I was saying how a Battle Mage-Deimos scumteam is next to impossible since they wouldn't bus right out of the game like that
As above. This reveals he would have a propensity to distance as scum, and also note that whilst appearing to shade Deimos here, he's paving the way to protect him, by mathematically reducing the likelihood of Deimos-scum by ruling out partners (in this case, me).

I haven't quoted them all here, but worth looking at IV's readslists and how they evolve. Note that Deimos starts at the top and slowly slips down as the game gets more serious and a lynch becomes more likely. Obviously today he has U-turned completely to not even consider Deimos a suspect, using the excuse of "Norweg thought he was town".
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2020 Stats - 31 completed games:

Survived to the end and won - 11
Nightkilled - 10
Survived to the end and lost - 6
Day-elimmed by majority - 4

winrate as scum: 78%
winrate as town: 55%
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Post Post #383 (ISO) » Fri Jul 24, 2020 4:36 am

Post by innocentvillager »

if we just discuss things as a group it’s very unlikely all three town will end up suspecting the same people which is why barring really really weird stuff we should just elim the dead town’s big scumread because we know they were town

Ftr I have no idea if BM is actually scum or not, but I think we should just do it

I can literally see anyone flipping red at this point which is kind of scary
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Post Post #384 (ISO) » Fri Jul 24, 2020 4:40 am

Post by innocentvillager »

In post 379, Battle Mage wrote:
In post 354, innocentvillager wrote:like even if this si wrong this is our best shot, a confirmed townie was almost certain this slot was scum, any other talking we do today will just muddy it and be scum influenced
surely you have your own opinions? No offence to Norweg, but he isn't the sort of player you should be blindly sheeping even if he flips town.
In post 355, innocentvillager wrote:Nash/word is possible but I think word/BM and Nash/BM are more likely
No hint of Deimos here then? I guess he is your lover?
I do but they’re kind of weak and there are too many scum right now and their incentive is to fast play this because all 3 town need to be on a ME for this to work

I think Deimos is possible too fwiw... I regret not talking longer on D1 to solidify what happens if Norway flips green, but you guys were so certain he wouldn’t :/ my fault too
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Post Post #385 (ISO) » Fri Jul 24, 2020 4:44 am

Post by innocentvillager »

if it matters my readslist is

Leantown: Nash
Null: BM, Damos
Null lean scum: word

But I will reread a bit to see if I can get stronger reads
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Post Post #386 (ISO) » Fri Jul 24, 2020 4:46 am

Post by innocentvillager »

Like I actually agree Norway’s reads were kind of bad but at least we know he’s town, and my reads aren’t great either so I say we just do that
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Post Post #387 (ISO) » Fri Jul 24, 2020 4:48 am

Post by innocentvillager »

this is one of those situations we should be 40% to win but we’re actually quite a bit less than that so barring anything really damning I think we should just do something as close to random as possible (or least influenced by scum), which is Norway’s reads
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Post Post #388 (ISO) » Fri Jul 24, 2020 5:52 am

Post by Battle Mage »

In post 383, innocentvillager wrote:if we just discuss things as a group it’s very unlikely all three town will end up suspecting the same people which is why barring really really weird stuff we should just elim the dead town’s big scumread because we know they were town

Ftr I have no idea if BM is actually scum or not, but I think we should just do it

I can literally see anyone flipping red at this point which is kind of scary
That's a stupid strategy, especially when that townie is not famed for having great reads.

It's also a strategy I struggle to see being proposed by town. Seriously, who joined this game, or any other, rolled town and decided they would prefer to sheep some dead guy rather than actually try to solve things themselves? Like, do you have no confidence in yourself, or just not want to play?

I don't think your concern will materialise. I trust Word, Word will probably trust me because he's a smart cat and knows my play. Nash also knows my play, so if he's town he can get on board.

I've highlighted some bits in red, in case others didn't pick up on it. Here, IV is backtracking from his read on me, so he can pave the way to vote for, well, pretty much anyone. Scum have 3 viable options today so not too fussy!
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2020 Stats - 31 completed games:

Survived to the end and won - 11
Nightkilled - 10
Survived to the end and lost - 6
Day-elimmed by majority - 4

winrate as scum: 78%
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Post Post #389 (ISO) » Fri Jul 24, 2020 5:55 am

Post by Battle Mage »

In post 384, innocentvillager wrote:
In post 379, Battle Mage wrote:
In post 354, innocentvillager wrote:like even if this si wrong this is our best shot, a confirmed townie was almost certain this slot was scum, any other talking we do today will just muddy it and be scum influenced
surely you have your own opinions? No offence to Norweg, but he isn't the sort of player you should be blindly sheeping even if he flips town.
In post 355, innocentvillager wrote:Nash/word is possible but I think word/BM and Nash/BM are more likely
No hint of Deimos here then? I guess he is your lover?
I do but they’re kind of weak and there are too many scum right now and their incentive is to fast play this because all 3 town need to be on a ME for this to work

I think Deimos is possible too fwiw... I regret not talking longer on D1 to solidify what happens if Norway flips green, but you guys were so certain he wouldn’t :/ my fault too
The only thing a longer day 1 would have achieved is Norweg going on and on about how he thinks I'm scum. Which I assume is what you wish had happened?

If you vote Deimos, I'll consider not lynching you, how about that?
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2020 Stats - 31 completed games:

Survived to the end and won - 11
Nightkilled - 10
Survived to the end and lost - 6
Day-elimmed by majority - 4

winrate as scum: 78%
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Post Post #390 (ISO) » Fri Jul 24, 2020 5:56 am

Post by Battle Mage »

In post 386, innocentvillager wrote:Like I actually agree Norway’s reads were kind of bad but at least we know he’s town, and my reads aren’t great either so I say we just do that
you're still pushing the "let's vote Norweg's suspect" crap, even after your own readslist in the previous post has Word as top suspect? :eek:
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2020 Stats - 31 completed games:

Survived to the end and won - 11
Nightkilled - 10
Survived to the end and lost - 6
Day-elimmed by majority - 4

winrate as scum: 78%
winrate as town: 55%
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Post Post #391 (ISO) » Fri Jul 24, 2020 5:58 am

Post by Battle Mage »

In post 387, innocentvillager wrote:this is one of those situations we should be 40% to win but we’re actually quite a bit less than that so barring anything really damning I think we should just do something as close to random as possible (or least influenced by scum), which is Norway’s reads
to translate for clarity, after all the posts you made above, you're ultimately saying, you want to lynch me because Norweg said so, despite not actually thinking I'm scum?

Yeah I think you've had your shot then. Let's gamble!

VOTE: Innocentvillager
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2020 Stats - 31 completed games:

Survived to the end and won - 11
Nightkilled - 10
Survived to the end and lost - 6
Day-elimmed by majority - 4

winrate as scum: 78%
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Post Post #392 (ISO) » Fri Jul 24, 2020 5:58 am

Post by Battle Mage »

In post 385, innocentvillager wrote:if it matters my readslist is

Leantown: Nash
Null: BM, Damos
Null lean scum: word

But I will reread a bit to see if I can get stronger reads
you suddenly forgot how to spell Deimos huh? interesting
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2020 Stats - 31 completed games:

Survived to the end and won - 11
Nightkilled - 10
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Day-elimmed by majority - 4

winrate as scum: 78%
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Post Post #393 (ISO) » Fri Jul 24, 2020 6:02 am

Post by innocentvillager »

In post 388, Battle Mage wrote:It's also a strategy I struggle to see being proposed by town. Seriously, who joined this game, or any other, rolled town and decided they would prefer to sheep some dead guy rather than actually try to solve things themselves? Like, do you have no confidence in yourself, or just not want to play?
I play to maximizing chance of achieving wincon. We are objectively in a bad spot right now. My current reads are a bit disrupted by Norway flipping. I think if we can get 40% chance of winning that is incredible because scum controls so much of town right now. If we could do something provably random than I would rather just do that, but that’s obviously against the rules. So we should pick as close to random as possible I think that maximizes the chance we win, rather than talking it out as a group and selecting whatever the majority believes (influenced by not 1 but 2 likely fast playing scum).
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Post Post #394 (ISO) » Fri Jul 24, 2020 6:03 am

Post by innocentvillager »

In post 392, Battle Mage wrote:
In post 385, innocentvillager wrote:if it matters my readslist is

Leantown: Nash
Null: BM, Damos
Null lean scum: word

But I will reread a bit to see if I can get stronger reads
you suddenly forgot how to spell Deimos huh? interesting
LMFAO I’ve been spelling it wrong on purpose all game because it’s fun Jesus you do tunnel huh
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Post Post #395 (ISO) » Fri Jul 24, 2020 6:07 am

Post by Battle Mage »

Some Deimos highlights, including a good bit of innocentvillager-love
In post 232, Deimos27 wrote:innocentvillager's playstyle is hilarious, but I must say it at least seems effective at getting the game out of RVS
In post 47, NorwegianboyEE wrote:With that said, i think your way of playing is town indicative
"Way of playing" implies that you townread the playstyle. But a playstyle this unique needs to be consistent between alignments, so I'm surprised you can tr what iv has shown here with no consideration to meta
Opens with a bit of soft distancing.
In post 234, Deimos27 wrote:
In post 51, innocentvillager wrote:the point of this game is to be more certain and reduce the amount of uncertainty. It's certainty scummy to cast doubt and just keep every possibility open because this is a scum!motivation not a town!motivation
IV: makes low info super low prob reads
Norwee: calls him out
IV: surprised pikachu

I respect that IV tried to find reads out of the low probability phase in this game, but the idea that town should increase certainty is absolute nonsense. Mafia is probabilistic, and reads should reflect that fact. If available information suggests a 40% chance X is scum, but Y says it's 75%, then it is
pro-town
for X to reduce certainty by disagreeing with Y and arguing that it is 40%, so that town has more
accurate
reads by which to maximise their EV.

This is a rubbish reason to scumread Norwee. And you straw man him heavily with "to cast doubt and just keep every possibility open".
Soft distancing again - discrediting IV's argument, without actually going as far as to vote for him, or really push him hard.
In post 240, Deimos27 wrote:
In post 87, NorwegianboyEE wrote:
In post 84, Battle Mage wrote:oh fine, I thought it was a hammer.
Why would you unvote if you thought it was a hammer? That wouldn’t change anything.
In post 90, innocentvillager wrote:how could it possibly have been a hammer when we have 4 people and Norweeg obviously didn't vote himself, feels like a basic sanity check
Two reasons to doubt that BM genuinely mistook that for a hammer. The unvote comes off as bad acting due to reason 1. Reason 2 gives a cognitive mechanism as to why players are more likely to notice that it was only L-1 than they are not to.
This is particularly weak. I'd explained Reason 2 was invalid when innocentvillager makes it, but Deimos uses this faulty logic to justify a vote for me. Deimos is a good player as town, and this would be beneath him.
In post 287, Deimos27 wrote:I'm not convinced by the IV townread. Tunnels are often towntells because they're hard to fake and bold to take, but though this one might be bold to take it's very much not hard to fake.

I'll glance at IV meta later today.
Spoiler:
he never "glanced at" the IV meta
and some more scumbuddy distancing here but no hint of a vote.
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2020 Stats - 31 completed games:

Survived to the end and won - 11
Nightkilled - 10
Survived to the end and lost - 6
Day-elimmed by majority - 4

winrate as scum: 78%
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Post Post #396 (ISO) » Fri Jul 24, 2020 6:08 am

Post by Battle Mage »

In post 394, innocentvillager wrote:
In post 392, Battle Mage wrote:
In post 385, innocentvillager wrote:if it matters my readslist is

Leantown: Nash
Null: BM, Damos
Null lean scum: word

But I will reread a bit to see if I can get stronger reads
you suddenly forgot how to spell Deimos huh? interesting
LMFAO I’ve been spelling it wrong on purpose all game because it’s fun Jesus you do tunnel huh
You haven't. You spelt it correctly in the preceding post. Why lie about this of all things!?
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2020 Stats - 31 completed games:

Survived to the end and won - 11
Nightkilled - 10
Survived to the end and lost - 6
Day-elimmed by majority - 4

winrate as scum: 78%
winrate as town: 55%
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Post Post #397 (ISO) » Fri Jul 24, 2020 6:10 am

Post by Battle Mage »

Anyway it's all good - it's you or me today kiddo.

Innocentvillager vs Battle Mage

VOTE: innocentvillager

I'm
V/LA for the weekend.
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Survived to the end and won - 11
Nightkilled - 10
Survived to the end and lost - 6
Day-elimmed by majority - 4

winrate as scum: 78%
winrate as town: 55%
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Post Post #398 (ISO) » Fri Jul 24, 2020 8:05 am

Post by innocentvillager »

gdi now I actually think you're town because I don't think scum would expose themselves to this ultimatum when there is an easy win

i really think you should unvote and everyone weigh in first or scum can try to coordinate a quickhammer, notice how no one has been saying anything as the scum would probably try to make sure they are both online in the PT

fwiw if you're town i think word is most likely to be scum
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Post Post #399 (ISO) » Fri Jul 24, 2020 8:11 am

Post by innocentvillager »

i think at this point i should clarify that I was entirely trolling at the beginning of the game, I obviously didn't have reads as confident as I said I did, there was no way to distinguish between the non-posters, im surprised people didn't think I was trolling. i continued the tunnel on norway because I think this kind of format encourages town to be brazen and deathtunnel to the end to ignore scum influence. the obvious flaw in this plan is that the elim is less likely to go through if norway is scum and more likely to go through if he is town, but I didn't see much towntelling from norway and felt that other players were reasonably townie including you

like if damus had hopped on the wagon i probably would've backed off norway
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