Open 792: Masons and Monks GAME OVER

[The Bulge]

I'm betting on mason, AGar would have flipped out if he wasn't. And we should have had a CC.

i presumed that whoever the real one was got lucky with the popcorn and kept quiet in the interest of self-preservation. agar's and a50's reactions to the massclaim had me thinking i was onto something but fuck me i guess

[fferyllt]

Oh, FUCK!

@Mod: You put Joey as a VT in post 0 and Mason in the opening day post. Which is it?

The flip is correct. I'll fix the OP. OOPS!

[The Bulge]

let's light a fire here then

VOTE: Aristophanes

ari how much have you read?

[Almost50]

I actually low-key am considering a No Elimination today. BOTH Scum teams NEED to hunt for each other. Whichever shoots Town tonight is likely to lose the game.

What do you think?

[The Bulge]

i suppose we are only doing them favours narrowing the pool?

on the other hand, we desperately need a correct elimination.

[Almost50]

I'll sleep on this thought for now, and will revisit in the morning

[The Bulge]

even a scumflip potentially hands the game to one team if they're able to shoot based on assocs

[Aristophanes]

let's light a fire here then

VOTE: Aristophanes

ari how much have you read?

The last two pages lol

I will read back, I merely have not had the time yet.

I figured I'd try to engage with something active first and then go back and read some of what I've missed.

[The Bulge]

no worries if not. I hear you can obvtown pretty good tho. can you do that without having read?

[Aristophanes]

no worries if not. I hear you can obvtown pretty good tho. can you do that without having read?

Actually, yes haha

You'll see it in very short order

[Dunnstral]

I'm sure that its drdolittle. Other 3 are up in the air. We should go for the obvious pick today.

VOTE: Drdolittle

[brassherald]

Thanks to Fferyllt who took care of Votecounts while I was gone.

Votecount 3.01

Aristophanes (1):

The Bulge

DrDolittle (1):

Dunnstral

Not Voting (5):

Almost50, Aristophanes, SirCakez, DrDolittle, davesaz

With 7 in residence, it takes 4 votes to send someone down the mountain.
Day 3 will end in (expired on 2020-09-28 22:00:00)

[Almost50]

even a scumflip potentially hands the game to one team if they're able to shoot based on assocs

Which is why I'm suggesting the No Elimination play. I've thought of a worst scenario case where we eliminate one scum and the opposing team shoots the other while that lone scumster shoots Town, leaving us at a 2-2-0 situation.
Even if said lone scum holsters (but still gets shot) we end up at 3-2 tomorrow, which means we need to go through 2 EyLo phases to win.

If we flip scum and their p manages to both survive and hit one of the opposing team we would be at 2-1-1 and we still would need to go for No Elimination tomorrow (we would have no choice about it as either a correct or a miselimination would lose us the game)

The one and ONLY good scenario for us today (if we do eliminate someone) would be to:
A- Hit scum, and B- Both Scum teams cross-kill, resulting in a 3-1-0 situation tomorrow.

Going for a No Elimination today FORCES both teams to hunt for each other. Whichever of them misses loses the game. If they both miss we at a no worse situation either (the remaining townie abstains and forces a No Elimination OR a joint Scum win)

VOTE: No Elimination

[Almost50]

let's light a fire here then

VOTE: Aristophanes

ari how much have you read?

I'm sure that its drdolittle. Other 3 are up in the air. We should go for the obvious pick today.

VOTE: Drdolittle

You both going for a vote isn't helping me decide which of you is Scum! If both of you are, then God help us!

[SirCakez]

Our odds are really good to hit scum here...

[davesaz]

Shorthand version:

Any town elim -> 2-2-2 crosskill -> 2-1-1 no-elim, crosskill <pretty sure any town win from a mis-elim requires consecutive crosskilsl>

3-2-2 Elim scum 3-2-1 crosskill 3-1-0 -> normal 4p
scum elim 3-2-1 big elim small 2-2 scum win
scum elim 3-2-1 small shoot big 2-1-1 no-elim crosskill town wins

no-elim, crosskill -> 3-1-1 {town gets a regular 2-1 with a scum elim from this point}
no-elim, 1scumkill -> 2-2-1 {only town win path is elim big scum + crosskill, the rest lose}
no-elim, 2 townkill -> 1-2-2

Mis-elim

A mis-elim can actually still win but it requires a crosskill, no-elim, crosskill sequence. Very short odds because one scumteam has slightly more info than the other. The paradox that it's higher ev to crosskill and hope the other scumteam misses than to kill town is pretty funny here. Both scumteams path to win is accuracy but if they are both too accurate then town wins. They have to hope they're accurate and the other team isn't.

Scum elim

The crosskill and small shooting big paths both keep town alive. Crosskill resulting in 3-1-0 is by far the best town path.
Small shooting big requires a crosskill the next night for town to win.
Big shooting small and small missing is an immediate win for big.
Two town killed means 1-2-1 which is it's own brand of fun.

No elim

Town is in much better shape after a crosskill.
If one team misses we get 2-2-1 and town have to elim from the big team to stay alive, and then crosskill needed to win.
If both teams shoot town then the remaining townie has to hope for no-elim and crosskill twice in a row.

Summary:

I'm not quite done with working out the sequences, but to me it looks ever so slightly better for the scum elim case. That one has the only straightforward path for a town win. The other paths seem to all need more than one night with a kill on scum, and specific ones at that. No-elim requires a fair amount of wishful thinking compared to scum elim.

The scum elim case makes it easier for the big team too. They merely have to shoot small and hope small misses, instead of needing to do it twice.

[The Bulge]

let's light a fire here then

VOTE: Aristophanes

ari how much have you read?

I'm sure that its drdolittle. Other 3 are up in the air. We should go for the obvious pick today.

VOTE: Drdolittle

You both going for a vote isn't helping me decide which of you is Scum! If both of you are, then God help us!

hm my vote was a pressure vote, don't misrep it
UNVOTE:

I am liking the idea of no elim i think

[The Bulge]

unless someone fucks up big time. a safe scum elim is still our best option if we pull it off

[The Bulge]

but if we miselim and still win this setup deserves the trash

[Dunnstral]

I think we're in a better position if we elim scum today than if we no-elim

[Dunnstral]

Does anybody here think drdolittle is town?

[Dunnstral]

What does everyone else think of no elim vs eliminating scum

[SirCakez]

I want to go for scum elim the odds are better

[DrDolittle]

VOTE: dunn

[DrDolittle]

I think we're in a better position if we elim scum today than if we no-elim