Mini Normal 2163: MItGBSMoD [game over!]

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I’m not saying osuka is town, I’m saying the reasons I had for lockscumming him yesterday based on his reaction to my calling out his ellitell was NAI I think

I wanna take this opportunity to point out that nearly every single post you’ve made over the past several tens of pages is absolutely moronic

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Also, one more thing: what do you think of osuka now? Like independently and in spite of your trouble reading him

What do you think of the way he reacted to me last night?

I think that it’s impossible for me to say definitively what the reaction even is. Now that you and Osuka agree that they were not active on site while avoiding this game (at least not in any meaningful way), why would they not be upset that you’re actively calling them a liar? It‘s very easy to get agitated at someone making a completely dubious argument against you.

Yes but what I’m asking is essentially: I know it is probably purely NAI the anger/frustration osuka was expressing. But like equally idk ifon an emotional level scum reach the same level of frustration as town do in that situation, and I cannot judge if osuka crossed that border or not

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And so what I’m looking for is a second opinion on that

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Daddy

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Teacher - town
Andres
Shelly
Saudade
Ydrasse
Kerset - townlean
Bob
NDmath - nullscum
IV - scumlean
Osuka
Plus - scum
Taylor

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^i think this is about where I’m at now

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Okay I’m going to sleep bc it’s late

I’ll be back on around deadline or maybe a little before depending on how my day plays out to make sure we get a guillo

For now VOTE: plus

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The only reason that any one could give is damage limitation to avoid a flash lynch hitting a town pr. And at the point you swapped your read there was still a few days to deadline

False, again. The quoted vote was appr 16 hours to deadline. Are you now just trying to get Mena to defend you with the why tell such easily verifiable lies?

Hmm? What does that have to do with him trying to get me to defend him?

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When they could simply vote osuka and claim that although he though osuka had good chance of flipping town. He knows for sure he is town.

Only a yogurt


And it wasnt at the time that the lynch was 100% decided. So again still pleanty of time on the clock

Bob can you run me through this pls I’m not sure what you’re saying

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A role claim strains credibility.

At worst it would have given us hard info on what scum do have.

A slot that claims they go into playign scum. As if they didnt know there role.


100 times out of 100 for those facts alone. Was always the better lynch

I’m also not really following this at all, sorry bob

Could you rephrase for me pls

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Its a lie. Last time he lied (about me having experience with rolestopper), you defended him and avoided voting on the slot your biggest townread was driving by saying why would he tell such easily verifiable lies. I wanted to inject your name into the conversation to see if he would respond to that or ignore it.

Oh, right

Errr idk I still see it as kind of bold to tell a completely unsubstantiated and verifiable lie as scum and idk if that’s within bob’s range? Which I think is normally p geared towards solid play and eliminating PR threats

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I think saudade kill is probably implicative for kerset and maybe to a lesser extent ydrasse

Or it’s an attempt to frame kerset and to get us to flip the doc and save scum a NK

Any chance someone wants to go through the VCs and colour them in for me?

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Although I’m not sure scum!ydrasse would hammer there outside of being partnered with osuka/maybe plusjoy bc she was probably meant to be the deepwolf if scum at that point and hammering is throwing that away for no reason

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@kerset who did you protect last night?

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like tbh I think the hostility of bob towards teacher just incriminates them even more

Why tho

And why does bob read as faked hostility but teacher reads as genuine

I think they both read quite genuine tonally

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Ty

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Right, that’s kinda my point

Scum!ydra doesn’t have a lot of reasons to hammer there unless maybe there’s a very specific world of her other partner ALSO being a deepwolf and one of the other slots in contention for the flip yesterday being scum who needed saving

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like tbh I think the hostility of bob towards teacher just incriminates them even more

Why tho

And why does bob read as faked hostility but teacher reads as genuine

I think they both read quite genuine tonally

bob was directly hostile towards teacher at daystart, and i feel like they're trying to set teacher up for a mislim since I TR Teacher

Yeah but like why was the hostility faked as opposed to genuine fypov? I think it’s quite plausible that bob believes this

And again, bob is not incompetent as scum and I’m not sure why scum!him decides to get into a back and forth with a generally townread teacher

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Basicly at the point teacher and dmath voted Village. IT couldnt of been more clear that IV was town.

He wasnt even the leading lynch if you took away his self vote. Scum never leaves them selves at risk of being a compromise lynch. If village was scum all he had to do was flip on his osuka read. The worst that woudl have happened is that he would have been lynched anyway.

Idk if I agree with this

For one thing, I think IV’s end of day was actually much more ambiguous than his early day which I think was townier and while I’m not familiar with his game playing for towncred (self-voting out of ‘frustration’) is entirely a move scum make if they think they’re safe which /at the time he did it/ i think he could have thought he was — as in, it looked very much like osuka was going through and he could always hammer if osuka got to L-1

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Bob I’m sorry idk if it’s the hangover but I’m really struggling to parse what you’re saying here

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And they both claim to think that im scum. So a self voting IV would rule him out as being partners with me. And my read wasnt one they left.

So teh logical conclusion that town scum reading me would make. Is either im wrong on bob or IV cant be scum with bob.


As why would Iv self vote. Ensuring he is the lynch when he could so easily switch to osuka. But along with bob he is against that lynch. Why would a scum bob/Iv team fight a potential mislynch in favour of scum lynch.

If correct:

NDmath and teacher both claim to think bob is scum. So a self-voting IV would rule him out as being partners with bob. And teacher’s and ndmath’s read on bob isn’t the one they left —> what does this mean? Why does self voting IV tule him out as partners with you?

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like tbh I think the hostility of bob towards teacher just incriminates them even more

Why tho

And why does bob read as faked hostility but teacher reads as genuine

I think they both read quite genuine tonally

bob was directly hostile towards teacher at daystart, and i feel like they're trying to set teacher up for a mislim since I TR Teacher

Yeah but like why was the hostility faked as opposed to genuine fypov? I think it’s quite plausible that bob believes this

And again, bob is not incompetent as scum and I’m not sure why scum!him decides to get into a back and forth with a generally townread teacher

Im not generally TR'ed, I dont think. I was like the 4th most popular compromise slot in Plusjoyed lists yesterday 1 day before deadline. And, note that by shading NDMath's vote as being "a few days" before deadline, he is also implicitly shading my even earlier vote.

Okay I’ll take another look at that and the timing of when bob started pushing on you

I guess I meant more that I think you’re mostly TR by other slots that I think are town/the ones I’m more interested in working with

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Speaking of which, Mena, if you dont agree with it, why did you go start a rando wagon <24 hrs before deadline?

Do you mean the plus wagon?

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In which case also that was me + andres

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But like I think that was fairly clear

I started having doubts around IV but was still very much mixed there given his early posting and the fact I’d felt strongly enough to towncase him over the “scumslip” bs — which, incidentallt, again proves my point that scumslips come from town most often

And also was mixed on osuka after going through his posting in detail to check the ellitell

Felt good about Andres after talking to him about my paranoia and he wanted plus who never really got any towner throughout the day and I was happy to see if we could CFD there

If ydrasse hadn’t hammered I would have come back in time for deadline to compromise if needed on IV

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I had doubts about Andres but then spent like a page and a half talking to him about it and came away happy that he was town + you telling me you were confident in town him

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I want to run through it along with VCA with the flips we have before I try to figure out which one it is

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Like it’s a fairly substantial risk to leave a doctor in game who might block your kill

Equally he wasn’t gonna protect saudade so depending on when scum settled on that it was prob safe to leave him for the first night if he’s town

But then again kerset said he’s gated so that lowers the risk somewhat, like if he’s even or disloyal or something

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VOTE: kerset

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Well, fuck

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Tbh it would have been better to let yesterday run a little longer but it can’t be helped

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(Plus, bob, osuka)?

Although with teacher!flip I’m actually thinking bob>osuka maybe

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Andres, do you have a result?

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Also, Taylor is cleared after looking through teacher’s posts

I was kinda pissed that hammer dropped before I could ask why she was in his top TRs tier but now it makes sense

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to be honest if i was scum, teacher would have died night 1

I thought his roleclaim was nonsense and it was. You never get informed named townie. What you get is informed cop. I really wanted to ask teacher if he was informed on the rolestoppers alignment. Hope i didnt help out him as cop with my set up spec


Any one have any clue which of his named 5 town was his nigth 1 check.

I mean you say this but it's all WIFOM

didn't you say the thing about informed townie yesterday or whatever?

also yes, Taylor is almost definitely the check unless he had her as strong town D1 in which case maaaaybe he had a red on kerset, but Occam's is that Taylor is green

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but Taylor was I think mildly town spewed anyway as the CW to kerset on D1

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ooh, pagetops for daddy

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disregarding the claim NDMath is scummy but eh andres claim makes sense with them
Ydrasse hard downgrade, idk I don't really see a lot of solving and the big thing I was vibing before was my gut townpings but goodbye to that. hammer + reread means they move down to null with a slight scumlean

why is math towny for claim? I think the claim is more or less NAI

re:ydra okay, but again, if ydra is scum she's clearly meant to be the deepwolf, no? so why does she (1) draw a load of attention to herself with an early hammer and (2) not really get anything out of it but an elim on someone going down anyway. like IV was prob dying there. if plus!scum then maaaaaaaaybe but even then it's much more likely to be (bob, osuka, math) imo

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Informed town is normaly always paired with a pr. In teachers case he needed to know there was rolestopper due to his loyal modifier.

incidentally, is this true

this feels incredibly broad but I can't remember enough concrete examples either way

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As scum i would know he was a pr. So teacher would have died and not saud. Ask andre even as town i spoted all 3 masons day one last game. Game before that spotted all the pr by day 2 and killed teh vig night one.

scum game before that killed a town pr every nigth until i ran out.
Scum game before that spotted neap day one and 2 masons aswell. Spotted back up mason but got his role wrong.
same realy with my town games to.

like I'm not gonna dispute that you're good at PR hunting as scum but this is still pretty much just straight WIFOM

for one thing, yes, you have a good track record but that doesn't mean that you're a perfect PR hunter as scum and it's possible you just missed

or alternatively, it's possible kerset just overrode you on the saud kill because he was worried about getting tunnelled again and thought he'd have better chances of living with saud dead? which is to say that I can see you not eliminating teacher even if you had suspicions that he was PR for team reasons

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Ydrasse's hammer could be intended hammer for him to wifom it out

huh

what

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dude D2 lasted like 24 hours idk how you can say that anyone "dipped"

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yeah but even as a joke like I literally don't know what you mean


who is "he" here?

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can you tell me what makes you think osuka > plus? I thought plus' transition on kerset from TRing to the vote seemed super super bus-y and I'd need to go through D1 again but I also think he was the main slot pushing the Taylor CW when kerset was under pressure?

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ehh actually VOTE: osuka

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@andres do you consider someone being rolestopped a cleared / guilty result?

because osuka's probably the no.1 scum rolestop target if it's scum!osuka

I think a lot depends on how confident scum were that they were hitting the cop

if bob is scum and realisedthe informed thing on D2 was strongly indicative of that then rolestop doesn't mean a lot. also you can't self-target in normals so *not* being rolestopped is never clearing

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@Menalque I think they’re both likely to flip Scum. But that intense need to get away from Kerset I still remember. And that looks very much like Scum trying to avoid executing their buddy so early in the game.

yeah, that's why I voted osuka

like I think plus has probably got better odds of flipping scum than anyone else but I think I'm always gonna want to flip in (plus -> bob/osuka) so the order doesn't particularly matter

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a player is only informed if there is reason. sometimes players arnt informed but have role to inform them of the nature of the game.

Vannila townie on his own being informed of scum roel does not fit this. A pr however.

Examples in a game with a scum strongman joat with no town protective. The reason to warm scum of a broken combo. Tracker, watcher and rolecop.

informed goon. warns scum that IC is buttleproof

informed cop. informed that doc could be scum and is confirmable. Warning dont play follow the cop as he could be scum.


in this informed of rolestopper. whielle having loyal modifier. warns that a no result isnt a guilty.




There is never any reason for player to be informed of a scum role just for teh sake of it. informed is use to warn a player that usual good game play could be bad. i.e. scum killing in teh night IC not knowing it buttleproof. And their kill failing

okay but like this doesn't really convince me, even after reading it twice, that it doesn't make sense to just have an informed townie? like it's roughly equivalent to enabler but with more incentive to out the information

like I feel like you're reading a lot into/making a lot of this but idk why it doesn't make sense to just give info to a VT on the assumption that they will out it to the PR thus creating what is basically a named townie which can fit in fine

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ehhh I'm not sure it's that important tbf but I don't think your argument of "I'd have known for sure that teacher was PR from the informed claim on D1 and wouldn't have let him live to D2" is v persuasive

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also @shelly I just don't think the hammer makes sense from scum!ydrasse because she's prob *less* likely to hammer there as scum if anything

at worst it's NAI, and overall I'm just not gonna worry about it too much unless the game is still going after the PoE slots are cleared out

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you only have 2 votes on you

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ah yes, change your vote 40 seconds after i grab a pagetop for the VC, i don't mind

:3

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didn't plusjoy hard retract the taylor scumread

like idk why kerset wants to live at d2 when it was clearly them but maybe they felt they needed to with their scumteam so exposed

joyed is just doing more things and making a bigger effort to solve than osuka. end of story

doesn't like massively matter, its the actions at the time which are more significant than the later disavowal

also like doing more things =/= townier when those things fit incredibly well into what a scum agenda would be at those moments in the game

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also shelly you can link posts with

Code: Select all

[post]number here[/post]

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like osuka doesn't get flashwagoned here either way because if he's scum then obviously doesn't and if he's town then scum aren't gonna hammer out of nowhere and out themselves like that

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@bob lets disregard setup spec. what do you think of osuka?

pedit: (no offense) joyed has a rather weak scumrange tbh, scum!joyed doesn't do anything but meh I'll give you this one since much of the plist was posting a shit ton

do you have a game to back this?

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andres, feels on ydrasse/shelly?

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scrubbed some grey area other-ongoing-games commentary. nothing of this-game-related commentary was deleted. please carry on. -D

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also on NDmath actually

I feel like I'm at basically

Taylor, andres
shelly, ydrasse
math
bob, osuka
plus

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what about shelly has you locktown on her?

and where would you put ydrasse in relation to NDmath?

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I think this is probably moot but like I'd like to ideally actually use the day today instead of ending it prematurely

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I stand by my SOD readslist

except maybe Taylor town if teacher checked them?

it's strongly, strongly implied that teacher checked them

teacher doesn't enter the day like that if he has a redcheck on bob/kerset I don't think, unless he was playing B I G G A L A X Y B R A I N level stuff

and I can't see why else he has Taylor in his top TR list and I think its especially +checked!indicative that he put her name first

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and like, she's an excellent target if you're a cop too

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not like the number one person likely to be eliminated, but solidly within the scummy side of the PL

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okay... like tbh theres not much to get out of the day here except i want to hear a whole lot more from ydrasse

besides wdym when you say "relation to math"

like where within his reads he has her -- townie or scummier on play

also @andres thanks

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UNVOTE:

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my vote remains in a spiritual sense

this is prob overcautious, I think osuka self hammer is probably still +town EV and I think scum never hammers town!osuka out of the blue there but *shrug*

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im at

hard town: andres, mena

probably town:taylor, shelly, bob

scummy: ydrasse, ndmath

hard scum read: osuka

can you talk me through your scum reads here? also through your read on bob?

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honestly could be possible that ydrasse was TR by nearly everyone as scum so they've been lurking since their job is finished?

if ydra's plan was to just

1) get towncred
2) wait
3) ???
4) profit

where profit = winning the game, then ??? is equal to "if that was working why the fuck do you throw it away and pull focus onto yourself by hammering pre-emptively"?

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that's just not something that really makes sense with her wincon unless she's *explicitly* partnered with you @plus

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I think more than anything else I wanna hear about your bob read @plus

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dadydrasse

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why is osuka scum fypov or still SRing me after the IV flip? also why is that something that's v strongly town!indicative for me?

also, what ydra said -- why does there have to be a deepwolf at all? that actually does make me a lil paranoid of ydra in the case of plus!scum and this is distancing?

but equally it's maybe more concerning that there happens to be the exact number of scumreads in that list needed to win, if its a (plus, bob) team

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okay ydrasse is apparently beating me to everything I want to say

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dadydrasse

delete this @datisi

doesn't work unless you do the meme of the guy with the gun

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bob is partly for his opener. He's my weakest TR tho im a lot less sure. hes done scummy stuff and towny stuff. I just think those below him are scummier

okay, could you go into some more depth here than pls? like what specifically you think are some of the towny things and what specifically you think are some of the scummy things?

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ydrasse I'm gonna need you to mod a datisi style game where the flavour is just the memes/images you have saved mmkay

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Hello chicos

I’m here I’m a lil bit drunk what’s going on

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Ydrasse how much important stuff is there in the last ~10 pages

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I will I just wanted to know how relevant it si

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Meanwhile I have a question which is: it plus has claimed vengeful why are we not voting him?

VOTE: plus

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Like that’s an odd claim for maf to make i will admit but I don’t think it’s beyond the realm of plausibility and I have seen maf claim vengeful before I’m p sure

But like more obviously: if plus is town then we get a guaranteed town motivated flip and more info going into tomorrow

If plus is scum then we lose nothing

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Plus why are you threatening to shoot ydrasse when the very obvious correct shot is osuka/bob

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Like how hard are you scumreading ydrasse

Unless you are like 100% lockscum on her then it makes much more sense to use your venge shot on someone who’s liable to be the guillo tomorrow

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Hnnnng i think this means plus not scum with bob

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Bob wouldn’t let a buddy claim venge

Mind you I say that

Bob why aren’t you voting the vengeful claim

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@bob lets disregard setup spec. what do you think of osuka?

pedit: (no offense) joyed has a rather weak scumrange tbh, scum!joyed doesn't do anything but meh I'll give you this one since much of the plist was posting a shit ton

good odds of being scum.

The fact he helped run kerset up the first time as an early voter and never returned. Now kerset might have later claimed doc but at that point kerset hadnt claimed. not liking the fact he never returned in the second combo of it. One thing to not join in the first place but to leave when the pressure is high.


Nor once question kerset day two. I thought it was scummy that he had to be asked who he protected. And then dodged the question by claiming novice. An answer which was hammer worthy. So i would expect atleast soem questioning

why would i set up kerset and then run away? that makes zero sense

if i wanted to set him up, id bus for the towncred. if i wanted to save him, id never have set him up in the first place

Not convinced by this

Voting early on a buddy and then they get wagoned doesn’t get you cred. Like maybe a bit but not a lot, and it’s very easy to make the unvote under the justification that it was an RVS that then got too high + the saud kill on N1 makes me think the scum plan was to try to save/redeem kerset!slot

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Yeah there’s no way this slot is town

VOTE: plusjoyed

Why does scum plus claim vengful of all things?

To avoid being lynched? Why else?

You really think someone would claim vengful. Rather than someing liek VC, tracker, watcher. ect

this is why.

Uh huhhhhh

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Okay I mildly hate that ngl

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As in, he’s not wrong that vengeful is a bad claim for scum to make

But it’s a bad claim BC the correct play is to guillo the vengeful claim

So saying “ah this isn’t a claim scum makes” to then use that as a justification to not vote the slot is a big Oof

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again without having thought as much as id like to have about this, i would say that there is >1 scum in { mena, shelly }

Go on

Although more on shelly I’m assuming the me bit is more to do with D1 still

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and ydrasse seems off somehow

Okay how? Did we not just talk about this and how it makes very little sense for deepwolfing scum ydrasse to hammer town out of now where when (1) she’s prob fine with no elim and (2) she doesn’t really need to draw that attention by hammering pre-emptivelynwhen she can count on someone else to hammer for her or just wait until right before deadline to justify it

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Like how hard are you scumreading ydrasse

Unless you are like 100% lockscum on her then it makes much more sense to use your venge shot on someone who’s liable to be the guillo tomorrow

decently enough at this point
i SR osuka more and I think I TR bob honestly
the problem is that I trust you guys to sort bob/osuka out the next day, I have little hope that ydrasse will be found

Okay but if you’re town then you need to acknowledge that this is a team game and while hero shots are cool and they feel ~fun~ they’re called hero shots because most of the time they’re wrong

So you should shoot in the people most likely to flio scum and trust in the rest of the team to sort correctly later

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Like okay if you’re town it’s prob bob/osuka/math for the remaining scums

But if you shoot ydra ad she flips town there’s so much more pressure there to try and balance between “looks scummy prob is the final scum” and “could be the final scum deepwolfing paranoia”

Like if you take down one more person in that pool I think it becomes close to locked but also it makes it easier to reevaluate if someone like osuka is also town because then that means it’s worth evaluating the entire gamestate as things have clearly been misfocused today

But we can’t do that if you shoot ydra

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Idk if I’m explaining this well if this is really unclear then I’ll try again tomorrow while sober

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Okay but is she lockscum

If she’s not then the right play is to shoot for the highest scum equity slots and go from there

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Okay who could be a partner for plus

Not ydra probably based on this

I wanted to say not bob bc of the claim but him trying to use that as a clearing reason is ick so maaaaybe bob big braining

Could be osuka I guess but he’s been around since 2017 so this is lower partner equity. Also he’s voting him. Although also that being said if I were in an osuka/plus team id bus here

Not Andres

Maybe shelly? But she’s most likely town anyway and also has been pushing here fairly consistently throughout the game I think

NDmath could be too idk enough about his mechanics but he’s new on site

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I’m p sure scum venge is bastard so if plus is scum then we lose nothing on an elim it’s only a win and probably it’s actually bob or NDmath who’s the partner in that case

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If town then we get a town controlled kill hopefully into the PoE

This is the right play

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again without having thought as much as id like to have about this, i would say that there is >1 scum in { mena, shelly }

osuka still bullshitting

please enlighten me on how i'm bullshitting

i'm really betting on you being the scum in there

Okay when did this change bc I thought that as of D2 you were still p much lockscum on me

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Why do you think he’s town?

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Like I say I’ve seen scum claim vengeful before, it’s a bad claim but it’s not clearing

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Bad claim for scum to make*

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You're placing me and my townread in there and trying to deflect to avoid your lim

if you're town you're just being incredibly wrong that it's impossible so you're lockscum

bear in mind that mena had a really weird push on me but sorta picked it up from there and i'm pretty confident you're just pocketing that slot

Wait at which point did I pick it up fypov

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you're supposed to know I'm town because im obvtowning here

or rather, can you go scumcase me? so I can have a fun time looking at your flawed arguments

fwiw while I know that this prob seems valid fypov this is generally a very unpersuasive argument especially when someone already SRs you

You’re better off trying to talk about how your actions/thought processes don’t make any sense coming from scum

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yes im kinda scared of fucking over town

if you're actually vengeful town you are at your most useful by letting the town as a whole guide your shot. not you picking on your own.

Well it’s mixed

Like one of the advantages of vig/venge is that it’s a town motivated shot at a minimum and scum can’t play off it the same way as they can influence the guillo

So letting town “as a whole” influence it isn’t a great idea (nor is leashing) but like yes plus you should be listening to your TRs and the people they’re suggesting are scum and incorporating that into your own reads

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I think I still wanna flip plus and if he hero shoots and you flip scum then it was a genuinely amazing shot but if he doesn’t then it was a throw but it was a throw that was gonna happen anyway prob

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and if you're _so_ town like you claim to be, why the fuck would i not just nk you and get it over with

because theres 0 benefit in killing someone who doesn't have a great sense of how to find scum

Osuka next time you’re around can you run through your progression on me

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Why do you think scum has an investigative?

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We know scum have a rolestopper

Given what I know of mini normal balance I strongly suspect that if scum have a role cop it would be 1shot at most

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But like

Why

Town cop, miller checker, vengeful

Vs

Rolestopper

Is basically balanced (Again, for a mini normal) and you can add an ascetic on either/both sides and I don’t think it changes a lot

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Oh I got pedited

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again without having thought as much as id like to have about this, i would say that there is >1 scum in { mena, shelly }

osuka still bullshitting

please enlighten me on how i'm bullshitting

i'm really betting on you being the scum in there

Okay when did this change bc I thought that as of D2 you were still p much lockscum on me

the combination of iv flipping green and kerset flipping blue means i had the game almost completely backwards so i took a step back and reevaluated, and even though your push on me was dogshit youve been pretty okay ever since that

So this was only post-kerset flip

Hmm, okay

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what im getting at is how would a mafia play around vengeful

Setups aren’t balanced around the idea that mafia should have a way to “play around” every tool town has

I disagree with this but it’s part of setup philosophy atm

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When precisely did your opinion start shifting on me then osuka? During N2?

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ahh the pedits why do they tease me so

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Okay I can wait

Also @ydrasse I would have said no but again bob really shouldn’t ever be pushing for not flipping a venge claim so..

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Okay this is what’s confusing me because I think I made all of about 10 posts on D2 before teacher hammered while I was sleeping

So yes it does but also not totally satisfactorily if that makes sense

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Idk I’m just struggling to parse whether or not I believe this as a progression given the timing and that I feel like things happened at different times

I probably need to reread those bits myself

But like I didn’t start re-evaluating you on your merits without the ellitell (which incidentally isn’t bullahit but it does need to be checked thoroughly or like more thoroughly than I did — it’s prob more accurate the more games someone is in too now I think about it) D2 I did that on D1 I think when you were still very locked o me being scum

And then I feel like I didn’t really say anything that would explain a reversal on me on D2 bc it was so short

I’m thinking

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Rn I think I would like to flip plus still and have him target bob

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alllll the pagetops are for daddy

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daddy mena will care for you mein Kinder

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i have suddenly changed my mind on who i want plus to shoot ...

Hoist by my own petaddy

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Okay I’m going to sleep with that

I’ll be around tomorrow in the day and hopefully sober

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i have suddenly changed my mind on who i want plus to shoot ...

i would also like an actual ~case~ on me or w/e.

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secretly ydrasse loves the daddy jokes she just doesn't want to admit it

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oh wait I already responded to that lmao

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yeah i don't think this level of acting is in ydrasse scumrange

I have a Fun Fact

Ydrasse's scumrange isn't as weak as you think
I wasted my life reading Newbie 2012 yesterday

I don't disagree that ydrasse is p capable as scum (hence why all the super early TRs were bad takes) but for her to be scum /this game/ she still has to have made, at a fairly key point, a choice that goes directly against her wincon and what she would have been trying to achieve for the rest of that day, /purely/ for the sake of WIFOM which in any case clearly hasn't worked as there's now significantly more suspicion on her now than there was before

like even if you think ydrasse is an amazing scumplayer this is just dumb for scum!her to do and again I'm p sure it literally only makes sense if she's paired with plus which... seems unlikely given their interactions today?

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okay I still want to flip plus but I'm now actually wondering if we haven't been overlooking math by a significant margin just because he hasn't been here

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math have you got any completed scumgames?

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plus what was your take on math again/

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if (bob, plus, osuka) are all in your pool then you should join plus!wagon and advocate for him shooting in the rest of the pool if he's town

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did u guys hear that Pixar are making a sequel to Wall-E about how he came into existence and the role his creator played?

they're calling it Dad-E

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I thought you were locktown on ydrasse, shelly?

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I said I was just

subconsciously delineating

it for hours and reading newbie 2018 (town!Ydrasse) as well

idk what this means

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also where is ydrasse not trying to solve today

I just ISO'd her and I think she's tried to solve you + plus at a minimum so far today

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i did before now im unsure, my solve shit has been messed up since all my reads have been wrong (iv, teacher, kerset, even suade a lil)
while I have no scumgames here shelly, i think you underestimate my scumgame and don't realize how fucking awful i am as town

no you're very decent as town and i just reread newbie 2023
maybe i underestimate it but I want to rejoin the joyed wagon, and yeah if joyed is town they shoot within the poe

pedit: I said I was just subconsciously delineating it for hours and reading newbie 2018 (town!Ydrasse) as well

what happens if im lying about vengeful but im not mafia either?

wut

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Spoiler:

also, please tell me the thought process behind a team that is me/kerset/whoever.

do i, the "deepwolf", decide that it is worth it to hammer someone, and then kill the person who has focused solely on myself and my partner? who is then flipped, and then also allowing prs to do what they want? how does that set up a winning gamestate for my team instead of me allowing things to run their course and keeping my vote where it was? the wagon at that point had less than 24 hours and it was unlikely for anything to consolidate again. so what benefits did i receive other than everyone going ??? at me hammering like that?

p-edit: you have missed the point so spectacularly i cannot imagine this being in good faith.

words have meaning. you keep using terms like that, but you're not thinking about the gamestate as a whole; do you think that in this game that two people, who are widely townread in this theoretical, let their partner go down like that? surely they have enough sway over people who are townreading them to convince them otherwise, yeah?

do you scumread mena? do you think that there is any indication of what he, or andre, or taylor (who are "confirmed" to you) has done so far are efforts to lead the town astray?

please, tell me what the wincon is for me + kerset + someone else for making that play, and who fits that bill.

you don't need a wall.

i am asking you, very simply, what the wincon is for me/kerset/someone else making that play. how do we win doing what we have done so far?

(the point i'm getting at here is that you've got a tinfoil hat on regarding me when the answer is a lot simpler most likely)

(or you're scum)

you're either overly-confident as town for some reason or scum.

p-edit: but i was off it during the moments matter why? if i'm bussing, isn't the point of me keeping my vote on kerset so people can see i voted out scum?

like, if you're town at this point i really don't know how to get the point across that my actions are counter-intuitive to the narrative you're trying to write for scum!ydrasse and scum!kerset.

you can say it's wifom this, or wifom that, but sometimes you just have to accept things as they are at face value.

but if i had to choose other scum i think its ydrasse

if me going over why a kerset/ydrasse/x team makes no sense for the actions of this game so far you’re a lost cause or scum.

like, you can say i’m scummy but why? what posts do you think are scummy, and how do they benefit a scumteam i’m on?

that hammer was townie af

VOTE: iv

mercy killing

ydr conftown

agree

like lol.

what is your progression on me plus? conftown to scum for... a hammer that you thought was towny?

i'm pretty sure that it's by virtue of the current poe being (correctly) narrow at this point and you need to push some miselims through. and you chose me because...???

and if you're town, and you shoot me despite basically EVERYONE ELSE in this game saying that that is suboptimal for town? that's not on me at this point.

all of this is very literally solving

she's engaging with you to try and follow where you're coming from and get a sense of your alignment

she's then doing the same thing with plus, trying to trace back his thoughts through what he's said to see if it makes sense

just bc she hasn't been trying to engage with every single slot in the PL doesn't mean that she hasn't been trying to solve the slots she thinks she can solve/is more interested in, and this is more reason for her to be town when you add it to the behaviour she displayed not making sense coming from scum

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plus are you retracting your venge claim or not

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the whole interaction with me was nothing more than "hey tell me how tf I am scum in this gamestate" sso you think thats solving?
interaction with joyed is "your progression is bad and don't shoot me" how is that solving it's shading + self defending

no, it's clearly more than that? 3926, 3929, 3939 are all very obviously examples of trying to see if you have plausible reasons to thinks she's scum or if you're shitpushing her

with plus she's been doing like the EXACT same thing that you've been doing, trying to get him to commit on his stances on reads and probing at contradictions in his thought (like in 4061, 4095)

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okay I'm starting to have mildly bad feels about shelly now

that's p clearly not what I'm saying so are you reading my posts or not

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even if I have plausible reasons for scum!ydra then it doesnt mean im auto town? since ive seen scum compellingly scumcase people more than once

pedit: you're saying that ydrasse is engaging / probing me to give my thoughts on them and therefore they are solving
which I point out isnt true

Probing people to give their thoughts is protown so i'll give you that, but to me it's not indicative of solving

literally what do you think solving is

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like ehhh i think what ydrasse does in the posts above is probe people to give their thoughts (me and joyed)
but ydrasse isn't concluding our alignments fwiw

no she very clearly wants to know what your thoughts are IN ORDER TO establish things about your alignemnts

the questions are not just empty, they have a point to them

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Ok I think this will get me killed anyway since it will be interpreted as scum flailing but I think in the interest of making the gamestate clearer I will come clean so I can explain. The vengeful claim/soft thing was a long term gambit I did as a VT was to get hopefully nked or waste mafia actions on me to save a pr potentially and to garner reactions/interactions at a later time when needed to solve; I chose today.
I originally thought that the mafia had to have some sort of investigating role that they would have investigated me by now to learn that I was lying about vengeful/soft. If mafia knew I was lying, they'd push me like hell for townpoints. Mena explained how this is probably not the case.
Since mafia would believe I'm vengeful, they'd have to tread extremely careful around me so they don't get hit by venge shot. Ydrasse has not, so I think they are town. I already am confident in andres and mena town. I also think taylor is town since bussing bob here is weird. I don't think scum osuka would push me here either for that same reason as Ydrasse despite being in worse position.
Who has tread carefully around my slot? Bob (especially and I think tried to pocket a bit) , a little of taylor and shelly, and ndmath. I'm extremely certain that the 2 remaining scum are in those 4. I think it is bob and ndmath or shelly.

*thonk*

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okay I'm thinking about the plus thing, would prefer no speed murderising

UNVOTE:

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even if I have plausible reasons for scum!ydra then it doesnt mean im auto town? since ive seen scum compellingly scumcase people more than once

pedit: you're saying that ydrasse is engaging / probing me to give my thoughts on them and therefore they are solving
which I point out isnt true

Probing people to give their thoughts is protown so i'll give you that, but to me it's not indicative of solving

literally what do you think solving is

this as a genuine question that I'd like you to answer shelly

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Hello friends

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I have some thoughts but give me a minute

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Okay basically I’m not sure if this matters too much bc I’m thinking it’s likely all the scum are in (bob, plus, osuka, math) and maybe the right play is the right thing to do but I lowkey am not sure that I want to do (plus, osuka) today instead of (bob, math)

I think I actually don’t wanna do plus today? I would reconsider there on a bob redflip, but I’ve been running through the fake vengeful claim and honestly that just seems so weird that I’m not sure it comes from scum? Like it’s such a batshit plan in a way that makes me think that’s town insanity not scum insanity, because it involves claiming a role that actively should be flipped and then backtracking on that so openly that it’s just... TSTBS?

And then osuka I’m really not sure on, but I think his decision to push on shelly is maybe slightly towny? Idk I could compromise here because I just can’t make my mind up either way. But Shelly wasn’t someone who was gonna be flipped today and so for scum to push that while they’re on the chopping block is a *very* non-survivalists mood and I’m not sure what the scum motivation is there? My main concern would be that it’s almost pre-emptive, as in, if osuka is scum with someone else in the pool thenthe only way to win is to manage to draw someone else in. I’ve misplayed this before myself by feeling like I needed to start undermining that person early because I’d prob still die before them if I hadn’t started creating doubt in people’s minds before gylo. But idk. I might be overthinking this, maybe osuka’s move off kerset was just scum but like rn I think this is slightly more likely to be town than my last two

Which brings me to bob and math

Math just seems to be entirely trying to coast by in the background. Minimal engagement with anything, I looked at the scumgame he linked and I think they’re similar tbh. Low posting, some slightly longer posts to give the impression of depth, and like I’m not sure I want this slot in gylo with there being such little content it’s produced so far. I don’t wanna have to try to decide between a slot that looks superficially scummy vs here if it comes down to that, and given that I think there’s a decent chance of scum here I’d rather get it out of the way earlier

Bob is... idk. I don’t like how much he’s trying to self-meta his way out of things, and I especially don’t like the argument of “I’m too good at scum to be in this position” because like, I’m p good at scum and I’ve still had games that have gone to shit and I’ve pulled that /exact/ line before and had moderate success with it. The whole PR hunting thing is moot to me too, because it’s like... okay, town PR didn’t die N1 but like LITERALLY the cop died N2 and that’s really not bad PR hunting at all imo yet you’re trying to spin that as less incriminating somehow? And idgi

But like equally idk if math and bob tie themselves together so much by both getting on osuka, when there’s the plus wagon available that one could support instead especially when bob is at risk?

I think rn I prefer a VOTE: bob guillo and I think we should choose fairly soon and move on

If someone has a strong argument for why we should do math today instead or osuka, I’ll listen. I don’t think plus is a good choice for today

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@taylor @ydra can you explain what you think the motivation is for plus, as scum, to claim vengeful (a role that should be guillotined when claimed if the claimant is even moderately suspicious) only to then retract it later on when it wasn’t even particularly obvious that he was going to be the one to die

And like, an explanation beyond just “he’s real bad at scum lol” because while that’s *yes* possible I don’t think it’s necessarily a good idea to default to that assumption rather than that scum are going to do what seems like best route to their wincon at any given time and like... I don’t see how this helps plus achieve very much of anything especially with the retraction. Even if he’s scum with one of the others in the pool surely you’re better off hard bussing them from day start than doing a bad claim-retract gambit

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@andres i feel like we’ve been missing each other this week. Do you currently have a strong preference for osuka>bob or only a mild one?

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Hello friends I’m very drunk

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I’m legit surprised bob wasn’t scum and I’m not sure what that means rn for the gamestate

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Plus why do you think shelly is scum?

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Did Taylor crumb a target

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Ehhh i just skimmed her D3 posts quickly and I’m not seeing it if she did

Okay

I think prob the correct play today is to elim in osuka/plus, I think yesterday the problem may have been big brainig out of the obv!solve because it was like, too easy? And eliming where it wasn’t likely to be helpful

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veng

well unless i think if town they will make a stupid veng kill. yds . The fact he claims to scum read yds means his reads are awful if he inst scum. Like a vig who kills town 3 times in row. You dont want to give them any chance to kill more town

the poe should only be osuka, dmath, bob , plus.

Any risk to that then, yes i will be against killing a claimed veng. Kill him last even if he is scum

And if my poe is wrong. Then im as wrong as anyone this game.

As the wagon gamestate just doesnt make sense unless there is 2 scum in dmath, osuka, plus

I don’t think bob retracts from this and now that he’s conftown I’m inclined to listen to this

Honestly if bob could just present as town he’d be a really strong player, I think his hunting is >average but he continuously fails to communicate well and comes across super scummy because of it

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Jesús you guys I’ve made a very bad decision tonight

I have to wake up in less than 6 hours to go to a fairly important meeting about registering my presence in the country

And I’m fucking wasted

One of my friends here got a Covid free test today so we went for drinks to celebrate and it... kind of spiralled

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I already drank a big glass! But I will drink more before I sleep sleep

Ydrasse who is teh scum

Also I’m saving the ibuprofen (actually paracetamol bc I’m allergic maybe to ibuprofen) for the morning when I wil undoubtedly have /significant regrets/ about the decisions taken tonight

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Andres where did u go?

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shelly is pretty good at scum and from what I know of their towngame they like to tunnel more. Also in this game they've been wagon hopping like crazy

Doesn’t shelly have like one completed towngame? Also when did you reach the shelly!scum conclusion? I thought you’d had her as town fairly consistently until today?

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Hmmm, okay

I need to think about this when brain is doing the functioning thing more properly

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Oh, that is a spicy take

You’ve already talked about Shelly, explain the Andres take?

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But I need to flirt with our moderator

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Wait did I say that out loud

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Okay I’m going to bed excuse me pls everyone

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back, catching up

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incidentally yesterday was disgusting until around the mid afternoon

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Oh, that is a spicy take

You’ve already talked about Shelly, explain the Andres take?

Why are you entertaining this exactly?

me wanting him to explain =/= me entertaining it

I'm not 100% on osuka scum rn -- if he is, then getting him to explain it prob makes him scummier because it'll be contrived logic; if he's not then there's no harm to getting his logic out there

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gimme a sec I'm checking something about plus

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for math, putting pressure on your partner so you aren't null on each other and it coupd make sense for town!shelly to do so you could use that as a defense.

You didn't really need to worry end of day 3 since freaking bob is running around with a "hang me im scum" sign on his back;

it probably wouldn't pick up so pressuring ndmath is safe

joyed instead of seeing scum!anybody can you give me a lynch order so we have have some Fun Discussion and I can release my theory on the alignments of plus and ydrasse

here's mine: (least to most)
Shelly
Andres
Menalque
Ydrasse
Math
Bob
Joyed
Osuka

mine is probably
andres
mena
joyed
Shelly
ydrasse
osuka
math
bob

JOYED DIDNT YOU TR YDRASSE

like all these thought gaps and non logical trajectories, look super duper bad.

i did before now im unsure, my solve shit has been messed up since all my reads have been wrong (iv, teacher, kerset, even suade a lil)
while I have no scumgames here shelly, i think you underestimate my scumgame and don't realize how fucking awful i am as town

ok then tell me
1) read on bob
2) read on ydrasse

with explanations attached

bob is probably scum, he's been playing kind of weird this game and I now realize that it makes the most sense for scum!bob to pocket me here so he doesn't die

ydrasse was really sus earlier and today I think has been sus. I'm pretty much null on ydrasse, leaning sort of scum

i've come around to a town!osuka possibility

this is what's bothering me rn plus: you talk about how bob was incredibly obvscum and like begging to be guillo'd yesterday but yesterday you were like leaning scum there but not as certain about that/in your reads, which made sense to me

but now that bob has flipped town he was like super obvscummy which absolves you of blame. like don't get me wrong I fucked up there too but it feels a lot like you're trying to shift the narrative here around your progression here

and the OTHER thing is that yesterday it was bob -> shelly/math -> osuka -> Ydrasse

but now it's shelly -> ydrasse -> math/osuka (idk what order you'd put the last two in)

like you mentioned yesterday, you've been scumleaning math throughout the game, but at each stage you've avoided putting meaningful pressure on him or voting for him, including shifting your reads to make sure he's towards the scummy end but never quite the person you wanna vote for on any given day. what changed to make shelly your strong scum read today instead of tossing it up between shelly/math (what was implied by your reads yesterday) and to move osuka and Ydrasse down

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I also intensely dislike that math's main contribution today has been a relatively lengthy thing on how he doesn't make sense as plus despite being under literally no pressure whatsoever

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hnnnng ydrasse at EoD yesterday you were talking about why plus fake claiming wasn't really town indicative at all, can you remind me about the logic there or go into some more depth

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I'm still fairly sure all the remaining scum are in (plus, math, osuka) but I think it's particularly important to try to get it right /today/ because that takes some of the pressure off and generally 3p is easier to win in than 5p if we do end up getting there and not winning with back-to-back scum guillos

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plus joy’s trajectories make zero sense I think they are so horrifically bad they might even come from town.

I don't think having bad trajectories is necessarily AI outside the context of what it would be trying to achieve

what specifically worries me about plus' trajectories is that it's allowed him to scum lean a lurker slot all game while avoiding ever actually pressing for a flip there which is very much a strategic position imo

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menal when did you start town reading ydrasse

like mid-D1 is when I first came round to a ydra townread and EoD1 solidified that

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like mid-D1 is when I first came round to a ydra townread and EoD1 solidified that

wait? you think the hammer on iv solidifies a TR?

Y E S

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I swear to god if I have to run through this AGAIN

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i was uncertain until they made a big scumslip day 3

what was this again?

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I'd like to know where Ydrasse's head is at

I'd like to hear osuka's ~*spicy*~ andres take

and I'd like andres to talk to me about osuka/plus/math and whether osuka is necessarily the best guillo today, particularly with reference to my earlier points on (1) plus's moving read on math throughout the game and (2) math's big "here's why I can't be scum with plus" post out of the blue at a time when there wasn't really any pressure there anyway

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okay, after reading andres' 4484 to 4489 I think that andres can probably only ever be scum with osuka, but I also highly doubt that's the case given that andres has been consistently pressuring osuka since yesterday, and like that's.. an overcommitment on bussing? if andres' plan is literally bus both buddies and then go for the win solo it's like, exceptionally ballsy to start bussing the second buddy right of the gate where there's a big chance that you just get that flip and then by the time gylo rolls around and you're still alive AND you're claimed PR that's just... dumb

why does he only make sense as scum *with* osuka? because otherwise there's no need for scum!him to fight this hard for an town!osuka flip. and if he was going for towncred based on just faking a tunnel then he has no real need to come off osuka to work on bob yesterday because he'd get the cred anyway and I think I'd be easier persuaded onto bob than onto osuka today post-osuka!green flip yesterday

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i was uncertain until they made a big scumslip day 3

what was this again?

them acting like they knew i was town
their defense was pretty bad too imo

I agree his defence was bad, where was the bit where he acted like he knew you were town?

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along with recent meta behavior I can now talk about (silent star 2)

what happened in silent star 2?

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This also lines up with saudes prediction.

also what is this referring to

I don't remember saudade saying anything about theatre

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oh right, that

I'm gonna say it one more time for the people in the back

slips are 90% of the time from town and are NAI

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also like, I just went back and remember why I didn't think of that as a slip and it's because andres stated on the same page that he was joking and bob stated that it was because he was doing analysis on the

assumption

you were town

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I started ISOing saudade to see what if anything he said about theatre but then I discovered that in 1 day he made 500 posts so

that's not happening tonight

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innocentvillager [5]: Kerset, osuka, Andresvmb, Tayl0r Swift, PlusJOYED

s, osuka, andre, t , t

Highly unlikely that both osuka and andre are town. And i rather think andre is townie. He has sew sawed between me and osuka in townie way. rather than flip flopping

I love games with this many slips.

HOW DO YOU KNOW PLUS IS TOWN BOB.

Hate to say it but thats is just dumb.


You see analysis and you think its slip. lol

You do realize that I was clearly kidding right? I even put it in caps for added effect. Though this might be something to look back to if you do flip Scum.

plus, man, it's on the same page...

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also I just finished looking at ss2, what is it that you think is the same between Ydrasse there and ydrasse here? I skimmed rather than looking in depth but I think there is a marked difference in how she comes across between the two games

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@andres/mena (if either of you are scum i will be mad at you): could i convince you to elim plus first over osuka? i think that plus/osuka is a viable team but i also think that plus/ndmath has some viability to it and i'm unsure if osuka has as high of a level of associatives going on rn!!

okay, here's where I'm at

I think plus is probably the individually most likely slot to contain scum rn

I hate that math is still this absent and I think the way those two have played in relation to one another means they make a lot of sense as partners

BUT I'm not certain on this. whereas andres, who I'm v confident is scum apart from in a vanishingly small number of worlds, does seem certain on andres, and after overriding him on bob yesterday, I don't really wanna do that again so

idk I'm conflicted between wanting to go with my own thing and wanting to work with my TRs

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(if either of you are scum i will be mad at you)

would I do that to you

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Ydrasse what is your read on osuka again

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grumble grumble...

i'll similarly vote for osuka if the consensus is that osuka is the better flip. plus just feels obvious after having sat here for an hour trying to not to bash my head into a wall.

wait I just got there lol

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(if either of you are scum i will be mad at you)

would I do that to you

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Like yeah, my POE at this stage really is just {Osuka, plus}. NDMath has an outside chance of Scum for sure. But if Osuka is wrong, it really changes everything for me.

If Osuka flips green, then A LOT has gone wrong. And I would rather find out now than leave it for later.

okay, I think I'm pretty much in agreement with this other than I think there is a very real chance of plus + math and that's why I feel like it may be better to do a plus elim today -- in that I feel that gives almost as much info and I'm more confident in plus being scum than in osuka rn and it's the same thing... like if plus isn't scum then things are very wrong unless it's exactly osuka + math

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I never instavote in gylo as either alignment

I hate this, I feel like all the wind from the kerset!red has gone, and I think a scumflip today to confirm that this is the right route is probably critical

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imma go out on a limb here and say that means you're not in her exe pool

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I'm basically just waiting to talk to andres, and to hear from osuka and from math

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bc I wanna talk to him, ideally en vivo, about the relative merits of plus/osuka today

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like I wanna know what it is that osuka!town would reveal about the gamestate that plus!town doesn't, if that's an important part of the reason for flipping osuka first in case he's town