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Posted: Fri Nov 27, 2020 5:53 am
by innocentvillager
{ABR, Umlaut, Gamma}
{Starbuck}
{NPOM, TGP}
{Insanoflex, DGB, May, Non, Muh}
{Glitch}

i thinkkkk this is where I'm at

Posted: Fri Nov 27, 2020 5:55 am
by innocentvillager
i wonder how wrong this is

at least i was right on Norway, Guil, Pretentious, Nero all being town? (nero before the guil fiasco at least)

Posted: Fri Nov 27, 2020 6:03 am
by innocentvillager
In post 2570, Glitch wrote:
In post 2523, Albert B. Rampage wrote:Ok so something doesn't sit right with me.

Guillotine says he was shot, making it 2 kills last night, and then he takes it back when TGP, umlaut and NPOM catch him in a lie because limited-shot BPs are not told they lost a BP counter.

He tells us to scumhunt but it's critical that town knows how many kills there were last night in order to make an informed analysis.

Now here's what's interesting.

If he backtracks and says he wasn't told he was shot, then that leaves the door open for only one kill last night. Guillotine, since he's gambitting, would have known this.

So his Nero push is completely nonsensical.

Nero pocketed Norwee, why would he kill him if he's scum?

Why would Nero pick up on Glitch/DGB day 2 right where Norwee left off, if Norwee was killed to prevent him from going after his secondary reads after Pretentious?

It doesn't stand to reason that Nero would kill Norwee who believed him to be town, just to finish off what Norwee was going to do anyway.

But Guillotina brushes my concerns off and tries to make me believe there were two kills.

This whole Nero push was bullshit, he backtracked and said it's not Nero, it's one of the other players on his list, and was forced to retract his BP lie as well.

Guillotina is scum.

VOTE: Guillotina
Shit
ABR intimidates me so bad and I think it's because I literally live by his Guide to Hunting Scum on the wiki and he seems to be a prestigious player in my mind. This makes it so hard for me to sort him because he just feels so town in my mind but paranoia gets the best of me. I know Tayl0r Swift has been banned but I get the same vibes on ABR as I did from TS: freaking ridiculously hard to sort and I'm so bad at reading them.

ABR, why do you think the Nero push was bullshit originally? Is there more to it than the 6 player list of "herp derp there's a red check in here?" Or is that it? Or is it that you're TR'ing Nero so the push is shit?

I'm massive sus of Guillo but want to understand how you're thinking here.
damn idk if this comes from scum!Glitch often, seems kind of genuine

Posted: Fri Nov 27, 2020 6:07 am
by innocentvillager
In post 2670, Albert B. Rampage wrote:
In post 2658, Umlaut wrote:I'm just inherently skeptical of theories that posit additional killing roles when there's been one kill per night, and I can't decide if the weirdness of Nero's being that kill is enough evidence to overwhelm that skepticism.
Same, you said it perfectly.
i think this could definitely come from a vig

Posted: Wed Dec 02, 2020 3:18 pm
by innocentvillager
*eod3

ugh another lurker slot was town great

this rushing the game thing was really not what i wanted

Posted: Thu Dec 03, 2020 3:02 am
by innocentvillager
blah blah blah blah blah i don't know who to track

Posted: Thu Dec 03, 2020 3:10 am
by innocentvillager
it's also very possible i just die tonight lol and that scum hit me yesterday, tbh i think im one of the the towniest slots in the game rn

still don't know if mafia killed nero cain, still kind of doubt it but with how much assumption there is on mafia killing nero in-thread for whatever reason maybe it's not as ridiculous of a scenario as im thinking ??

i still don't buy the idea that the scumteam somehow has 4 lurkers all not paying enough attention to the game to realize town will probably speed-elim nero the next day

yeah think im here...??? could go for anyone in the bottom two tiers tbh

can't believe we have one ML left, what a fucking meme

{Umlaut}
{ABR, Gamma}
{Starbuck}
{DGB, May/unwnd}
{Insanoflex, Non/Vax, Glitch, NPOM, TGP}

TGP has really been underwhelming, basically seems like they're not trying at all ("what is there to comment on" -type comments, as town the mindset should be to try and proactively solve, not just "comment")

the muh wagon just brew out of pure apathy, but i don't really care that we hit that slot tbh

Posted: Thu Dec 03, 2020 3:11 am
by innocentvillager
again, if scum were never really being considered, scum can kind of just let the muh wagon happen naturally

if scum were kind of being considered, id imagine a scum or two to jump onto the wagon earlier to help it gain traction

there was a long lag between when Umlaut posted his muh case and it being re-brought up and people actually joining, will have to think about that

Posted: Thu Dec 03, 2020 3:12 am
by innocentvillager
actually Vaxkiller was kind of townie, it actually looked like he was trying to do something in this fucking gamestate before he really unnaturally switched off of ABR to muh

it's too openwolfy of a move to come from scum but because scum have incentive to do this, this could be getting into too scummy to be scum fallacy

Posted: Thu Dec 03, 2020 3:13 am
by innocentvillager
In post 58, innocentvillager wrote:it's too openwolfy of a move to come from scum but because
scum have incentive to do this
, this could be getting into too scummy to be scum fallacy
again, assuming scum were being kind of considered

Posted: Thu Dec 03, 2020 3:15 am
by innocentvillager
unwnd was also trying to do stuff but for some reason that felt more NAI, I'm worried he's scum here taking advantage of the apathy to drive the town down a false narrative (a lot of his analysis was very narrativy and not specific) and power driving miselims

ofc it could just be town genuinely trying to make something happen and make sense of the gamestate. if i had interacted with them more I could've probably put out some tests to see if they would poke further or just ignore

Posted: Thu Dec 03, 2020 3:19 pm
by innocentvillager
don’t think I’m gonna have a ton of time to think about this

Posted: Fri Dec 04, 2020 5:03 pm
by innocentvillager
pg129

I have claimed

Posted: Fri Dec 04, 2020 5:04 pm
by innocentvillager
glitch is scum and visited umlaut so that’s nice

Posted: Wed Dec 09, 2020 8:11 am
by innocentvillager
eod4

ok 1 scum down! time to reevaluate, 3 scum in:

ABR
DGB
Insanoflex
Noraa
unwnd
Vaxkiller
NPOM
TGP
Gamma

Posted: Wed Dec 09, 2020 8:23 am
by innocentvillager
Nearly confirmed town

me
- 1BP tracker
Vaxkiller
- VT

Townreads

unwnd
- Neo Neighborizer (Verified) (possible scum, but unlikely, see below)
dgb
- Rolestopper (Verified) (possible scum role)

Townleans

Noraa
- VT
insanoflex
- 2GS (verifiableISH) (unlikely scum role)
NPOM
- VT

Non-TRs

TGP
- VT
Gamma
- VT
ABR
1BG (Unverifiable/extremely difficult to prove with accuracy) (not a scum role)

Posted: Wed Dec 09, 2020 10:04 am
by innocentvillager
the move is to track

Insanoflex
NPOM
TGP
Gamma
ABR

because unwnd said they'd probably target Noraa

Posted: Wed Dec 09, 2020 10:05 am
by innocentvillager
unwnd and dgb will solve themselves

tbh, i bet the 3 scum are in that 5 person PoE, confidence on this is like 60% maybe

Posted: Wed Dec 09, 2020 10:12 am
by innocentvillager
if insano is scum, one of abr/tgp is scum, doubt it's both

if insano is town, Gamma/NPOM are probably just scum and one of abr/tgp is scum

so regardless, abr/tgp probably not aligned?

so possible teams with these assumptions are:

insano, abr, npom
insano, abr, gamma
insano, tgp, npom
insano, tgp, gamma
gamma, npom, abr
gamma, npom, tgp

Posted: Wed Dec 09, 2020 10:16 am
by innocentvillager
In post 50, innocentvillager wrote:{ABR, Umlaut, Gamma}
{Starbuck}
{NPOM, TGP}
{Insanoflex, DGB, May, Non, Muh}
{Glitch}

i thinkkkk this is where I'm at
jeez if ABR/Gamma are scum this was bad

think at this point they were still weak townreads but still not great

Posted: Wed Dec 09, 2020 10:25 am
by innocentvillager
leaning away from tgp and gamma being aligned

Subject: Large Normal 230 - Night 4
Gamma Emerald wrote:TGP is probably the only player here who might immediately grasp why I don’t kill Nero here
leaves

insano, abr, npom
insano, abr, gamma
insano, tgp, npom
gamma, npom, abr

Posted: Wed Dec 09, 2020 10:27 am
by innocentvillager
Insanoflex wrote:
In post 2639, TheGoldenParadox wrote:VOTE: nero cain
i'm balancing if this is like... kokusho's gambit from guillotina or if it's just a stupid lie, but to be totally honest nero drove the elimination on pretentious and then posted this after guillotine's supposed redcheck:
In post 2614, Nero Cain wrote:like, I didn't think Guil had to be scum or anything but there's no way to get a guilty on me as I'm not a miller or scum so...
which makes me feel like this is a tmi scumslip and not the town response to an apparent cop guilty.
In post 2641, TheGoldenParadox wrote:oh. fuck. that's embarrassing.

there's.... no way nero could have been the scumkill right? it would have to be a vig?
Is it just me, or does this look faked? Like, am I supposed to believe they opened the thread and laid down a vote without looking up 4 posts to see Nero had died and flipped green? Seems way more like an attempt to look town via acting ignorant than an actual mistake anyone would make.

VOTE: TheGoldenParadox
this.... kind of makes me think tgp and insano aren't aligned, but im not positive

Posted: Wed Dec 09, 2020 10:31 am
by innocentvillager
Glitch wrote:
In post 2659, DrippingGoofball wrote:SCUM who doesn't what to get involved with what he knows to be townie madness:
In post 2465, Insanoflex wrote:Hey all. Still reading up on the game, only about halfway through right now. Might need another day to get fully caught up, trying to speedskim through the game in 24 hours gave me a headache.
TOWNIE:
In post 2469, innocentvillager wrote:to be clear, in normals there is no chance of a guilty cop check on an innocent unless they are miller right? So given guil is truthful and Nero is not Miller, he is CONFIRMED scum?
SCUM who doesn't want this magical opportunity to slip with excessive discussion:
In post 2470, Albert B. Rampage wrote:Making the day longer sucks for the player who knows for sure they are going to die. I've been in that position, and I don't wish it to my worst enemy. If everybody's checked in and had a chance to say their peace, yeet them swiftly and honorably.
SCUM afraid to get compromised in the townie madness:
In post 2504, TheGoldenParadox wrote:i'm caught up insofar as i am actively reading the game but yeah there's not much i want to comment on
TOWNwith critical thinking skills:
In post 2506, Umlaut wrote:So, I've got a big problem with Guillotina's claim and it seems almost so obvious that I feel like I must be missing something here since everyone else believes it.
In post 2436, Guillotina wrote:
HARDCLAIM!!! I'M A 2-SHOT ALIGNMENT COP WITH A BULLETPROOF VEST!!! THE BULLETPROOF VEST WAS USED LAST NIGHT AS SOMEONE TARGETED ME!


I gambled claiming an ascetic modifier counting on scum's arrogance to not NK me just because I was no PR but it didn't work as it seems.


THIS ALSO MEANS THAT THEY GOTTA BE A COUPLE OF VIGILANTES OUT THERE!
I am not aware of any normal role that would know if they were targeted for a kill at night but survived. Under Normal rules, a 1-Shot Bulletproof shouldn't be informed if they were shot at.

Another question:
My redcheck is in this group
and I strongly believe that his partners could be in this group too


Nero Cain
Gamma Emerald
Taylor Swift slot
InnocentVillager
Umlaut
ABR (not as likely but there are a few things that don't match)

Let's hunt scum!
If you targeted someone and therefore knew they were guilty, why would you give us a list like this? If you out and tell us who is guilty, that makes sense. If you wait until later today to out, so that you can see how the day proceeds naturally and how wagons form, that makes sense. But what sense does it make to say "I checked one of these six people"? Including putting one and saying they're
not as likely
... that pretty much gives away that ABR wasn't your target. What even is this claim?
So far my experience playing with town DGB is to just take her reads and flip them completely inside out and then they're accurate. Her reads are always so wrong when she's town and I've watched (particularly from the game I just modded) town!DGB be the scum MVP. I mean maybe it's just my limited experience with her but the scumhunting ability there is pretty twisted up from what I've seen and I'd be hesitant to follow her lead.

I'm confident Umlaut is town but other than that I'm cautious to be okay with most of these reads. IV is acting like a confused townie today but yesterday's actions were freaking off and I won't just disregard that when considering my read on that slot.
don't think discrediting your partner who is playing straightforward is something scum would want to do

Posted: Wed Dec 09, 2020 10:35 am
by innocentvillager
okay abr-glitch looks kind of partnery

insano, abr, npom
insano, abr, gamma
gamma, npom, abr

think im down to here, so which two of {npom, insano, gamma} are scum

Posted: Wed Dec 09, 2020 10:35 am
by innocentvillager
i might need to re-ISO ABR to make sure he is scum, but yeah im not townreading there anymore