Guns & Roses V [Game Over]

[Dunnstral]

I'm not voting myself by the way

Feel free to work for it

[DrippingGoofball]

Bell, who did maxwell call boring?

That is where I want to vote.

[Titus]

He called my slot boring.

[DrippingGoofball]

VOTE: Titus

[Gamma Emerald]

why is maxwell calling someone boring your basis for voting rn?

[Gamma Emerald]

one thing I think I should bring up sooner rather than later
town only technically has two shots to get things right in what I perceive the Nash equilibrium to be.

[DrippingGoofball]

why is maxwell calling someone boring your basis for voting rn?

That's definitely something scum would say.

[Gamma Emerald]

but it's not a case

[Hiraki]

I would much rather have Dunn today and a possible replacement for Akarin at this rate. Scum is going to kill one of Gamma/Akarin tonight (in the scenario Dunn flips town) and I don't think it's smart to move forward until those slots are secured - otherwise the kill is almost assuredly Gamma. Not playing too many games with this right now.

[Titus]

I would much rather have Dunn today and a possible replacement for Akarin at this rate. Scum is going to kill one of Gamma/Akarin tonight (in the scenario Dunn flips town) and I don't think it's smart to move forward until those slots are secured - otherwise the kill is almost assuredly Gamma. Not playing too many games with this right now.

+1 I agree.

[DrippingGoofball]

but it's not a case

Calling your buddy boring is such an elegant and underhanded way to ensure players stop looking.

[Gamma Emerald]

how exactly?

[Bell]

I already implied it, but in general it takes their focus away from them and gives them lowered expectations to interact with them.

But like I said it could also have been a simple discred before shoving him into the town pile so Max could be left alone.

I Pretty much see narratives for and against every player being scum and town at this point so I guess I have enough info for elo if it comes to that.
It's just a case of deciding which narratives are the most plausible.

It sounds like you're being vague as to why we might have only two miseliminations left. Since you're town, I'll assume it's a good reason. But my guess is something along the lines of the last scum possibly still having a shot left.
Which is absolutely not implausible.

[Bell]

Now, before you freak out on me for probably going back tomorrow and writing out a case for and against every player (Except DGB who, I don't really have much more than that they may have lolololol bussed Maxwell rn) and how that's a massive discred on each player and what not.

That's just kinda how I play when I feel there's enough information left.

[Bell]

I've called my own partners as 'possibly' boring scum before.
As a sort of hedge.

For the sake of accuracy, I will state that Maxwell was piggybacking off of my statement that Sandman was boring.
He just reinforced that argument/narrative by agreeing with it.

[Bell]

Just, Sandman and I can't be scum partners together because math.

[Bell]

I feel that Tanner was the weakest scum player among the two dead scum.
Having a pretty basic approach. Sometimes throwing a jab at their scum partner before voting elsewhere.
He's probably least likely to have some overly convoluted plot related to scum partners. Concerned somewhat with their own image. In a way that Maxwell might not have been. This is what gives me pause on partner distribution in his reads list.
If it were tanner, unless his partner acted super townie, he's gunna put them in the mid to low category for this game. Maxwell, I'm not so sure.

[Akarin]

Hey everyone, I'm dead on my feet. Christmas became this whole big

thing

and I'm just now getting home and back to my normal routine.

I'm not dead, I'm not replacing out. I'll have more time for this tomorrow.

This game really needs a full reread (and an actual reading of the posts from today.) I promise I'll do that, it shouldn't be that bad.

I'm not voting until I catchup.

[Gamma Emerald]

who do you prefer between {dunnstral/titus}
that's what you should most likely figure out this dayphase. all else can wait.

[Akarin]

To do that I desperately need to reread the early game with flips in mind.

I don't trust my top-of-the-head read in situations like this.

So don't like take this as endorsement of a wagon or anything.

But gut right now from memory is Titus.

[Akarin]

And hey, now I posted actual content rather than a prod dodge at least, thanks Gamma.

[Akarin]

*collapses from exhaustion*

[Gamma Emerald]

tbh that's an interesting line to walk
I honestly feel like the example post listed in most rulesets does not function as content, based on NM getting off easy with that shit a lot

[Bell]

I recollect myself and focus. I must protect my Gún, it was in the very rites I swore by when I took the name Rosé.

what if gun is not good?

er, have i been playing the game wrong all this time? isn't the whole point seeing whose behaviour is more or less likely to come from certain alignment? (as i type this out, i feel like it sounds sarcastic, but i didn't intent it to be and don't know how to word it otherwise.)

no i did tangle with the phrasing a little bit

i guess the better wording is that you're playing probabilities too hard? to me it seems like you're townreading him for being too scummy to be scum which to me seems like an intentional act from Bell. I think we're agreeing there - although I don't have concrete evidence of that - but you're not agreeing on the final assessment. I'm moreso asking you to think why you should think someone who is actively anti-town is town. Are they doing it because it's their playstyle? Are they doing it because they have a grudge? I don't see a likelihood in either of those things but I could be wrong. What I definitely don't see is a productive way to play the game.

it's not just being too anti-town that he's town, it's more... things that i feel scum are less likely to do. i feel like you won't like this answer.

no, not really but i'm willing to agree to disagree

i guess the better wording is that you're playing probabilities too hard? to me it seems like you're townreading him for being too scummy to be scum which to me seems like an intentional act from Bell. I think we're agreeing there - although I don't have concrete evidence of that - but you're not agreeing on the final assessment. I'm moreso asking you to think why you should think someone who is actively anti-town is town. Are they doing it because it's their playstyle? Are they doing it because they have a grudge? I don't see a likelihood in either of those things but I could be wrong. What I definitely don't see is a productive way to play the game.

we're not agreeing on it being *intentional*. if you could show me how those posts seem intentionally crafted to seem too scummy to be scum, i'd see your point and maybe even agree with it. but i'm reading them as posts made in the moment as the game was happening. i guess my answer would be playstyle, though maybe i'm projecting the way i play the game.

how many reads do you have this game?

i tried to recall reads from memory, and realized the answer is "less than i usually do by this point". maybe "less than i should". i'll blame it on not yet receiving an answer to the things that currently interest me.

your memory is probably correct, your bias is not

She also voted Dunstral after me. The reads list is nonsensical.

agreed - i do not think it comes from scum though.

On page 5.... it could be scum seizing the narrative early.

do you really believe this or are you just trying to cover all bases?

At this point the top 3 players I am ready to vote out are Dunstral, Uncrowned and Rose.

Can you tell me where I should be looking for Dunn? Is it just because he has a wagon? I don't really see a "kill this with fire" that everyone else is seeing.

This seems somewhat counterintuitive. If Bell is scum, then he knows he needs to provide reads. He might choose to hold off to allow those reads to seem more fully fleshed out, but if he’s aware that providing them early is likely to be dismissed as something mafia wouldn’t do, then that’s a strong incentive for him to provide them early. I think the fact they were on page 1 is probably not very indicative of his alignment.

Yeah, this is about the best I can say about the current Bell handwaving here. "Too scummy to be scum" isn't a thing if the person is capable of not being scummy. Bell has done that in other games.

I think someone being rude is probably a feature of who that person is rather than their alignment. I would say maybe it is very slightly indicative of being town, but without knowing a person that’s no better than random. I think that’s quite likely from mafia, yes. Again, simply coasting out a game is not a way to win, you’re likely to just be eliminated for failing to do anything. It’s, at its best, a weak strategy. However, you also need to survive if you’re mafia. So if you piss off the wrong person, you have a strong reason to try to defuse things rather than using the conflict to try to get a better read on them or to use the situation of the conflict to try to get reads on the rest of the players e.g. how they position around the two of you.

I don't fully agree with this but it is stepping into Mafia Discussion rather than being relevant.

At this point, I'm pretty good with a Bell/Rose for D1. I haven't touched on it but I read the entirety of 146 and felt really annoyed. It's so much RP and fluff that it can be summed down to:

"(Bell's) temper may be short and his passion high, but his thoughts and intentions seemed pure at heart." which doesn't talk about the content but just the vigor behind it. If I could scumread people based on their personalities, then old-Hiraki would be lynched far more regardless of alignment.

We debated for a while on whether Rampage was his real name or if he just thought it sounded cool, and eventually agreed that the B probably stood for Barricaded, as that's how he felt in the way he carefully maneuvered around the town, talking about nothing more than his opinions on guns and roses.

Then we also got that which is completely the same thing that Bell had been doing which is probably why my initial assumption was never really considered.

Akarin isn't the worst substitute there but I don't have a great feeling there.

Mod: What's up with Paragon?

Didn't even get a post-edit for this. Sad!

I enjoy the roleplay personally. I think Rose having fun is great, so I'll save her for last. Uncrowned or Dunstral will be my primary pushes.

Yeah but are you reading it? Gun is actually playing the game - Rose is floating.

So you're saying that you

think

Rose has scumlean but there's nothing in the post that says that? Sort of like if Gun was just saying that ABR was doing X and Y but Gun also never got to a conclusion?

Besides, who told you to think for Rose?

I'm pretty sure Akarin/Gamma/Umlaut flip town, sorry.

I'm pretty sure Akarin/Gamma/Umlaut flip town, sorry.

Why do you think two highly contested d1 wagons were t v t?

Why are Gamma and Umlaut town?

Why is Johnny scum?

Why? What do you mean why? Is there a rule that this can't happen? Are you really implying this doesn't happen often?

Gamma is the one I'm shaky on. Umlaut is acting like town-Umlaut here which is something that I'd like to test this game. I don't expect anyone to 100% agree with that given how much information I've said though.

Johnny is posting elsewhere and isn't doing anything here except gloating that he's not doing anything. He did this a lot in Day 1 and just stayed under the radar and now he's just openly doing it. I have no reason to believe that kind of gloatpost comes from town other than town that is somewhat playing against their alignment (obviously it's not

flagrant

but it's something).

I am rather conflicted about the claim talk. I feel objectively that most claims should be eliminated but scum would naturally claim the ones that shouldn't be.

What do you think about what I said about it? I just don't see how there's any town positive benefit to it - except maybe if I didn't put my post down and just hoped that scum would play sub-optimally.

I’d rather this than JF, why the fuck did she ask the same exact question twice? It’s shallow questioning that is meant to appear productive but isn’t.

I don't blame you but what if it's just bad play? I don't see the scum-motive other than going slow. Which is fair but I think there are a lot better candidates there.

I haven’t read any of this game and I was hoping for scum lurk out slot to play this game

My pred picked a rose.

I’ll read through after work

Why aren't you just lying then? Tell me why to take off my vote and put it back on Bell (probably).

also, this speedwagon on dunn is making my stomach turn. he went from no votes to E-1 in what, 5 pages? 8 hours? while the other wagon was an uphill battle for the whole day?

I really don't think "uphill" is the right word here. Stalled, sure. Uphill? No way.

btw why'd you bring up you misreading Ico a lot?

Because I agree with your rationale against Ico but I feel that Ico has a tendency to do that as either slot. I guess putting it a little better is that I am apprehensive to use 'normal' tells for Ico. I'm not saying anything about Ico - it's just using past experiences to guide me. I've been burnt before, etc. etc.

[Bell]

Caution preach to rose could be either.
a. Just genuinely warning them (I did the same thing with DGB later).
b. Knowing gun is scum and saying this. It's airy.

I think 101# is just Hiraki either trying to convince Tanner to vote me because he thinks I'm scum in game versus out of game. To me this post seems more or less in-congruent with them being scum partners, though, if they wanted to change a scum partners mind they would need to post in thread as a stimulus to get them moving, you could post in the PT but then they either need to come up with their own reasons or not do so. Tanner essentially does nothing with this.

I kinda just want to throw my hands up and say this is a mystery post if they're scum together. It's not strong enough evidence to dissuade my view entirely away from scum. I shouldn't lean either way.

It's problematic that Hiraki never directly implies either Tanner or Gun is scum. While having pushed almost every other player in the game to one extent or another.

I can't tell if the Umlaut vote carried over to the Maxwell sympathy resistance.

What I am looking for however is consistency and they have quite a bit of that. They have some clever posts if they're scum because I don't think it's in line with Hiraki scum to taunt the scum team as scum themselves.

The argument with Dunnstral is interesting if Hiraki is scum or town because if town they were right on the money, whereas as scum it would be relatively easy to know that Dunnstrall was doing scum a favor and actively acting against their own interests seems rather convoluted of a plot. When I'm scum sometimes I play this angle, actively arguing against anti-town plans hoping that they either ignore me (no way does anyone ignore Hiraki's argument with dunn about claiming here, so not a good hope here I think) or that the town points offset the scum points on the surface.

I'm wondering what the explanation is for Hiraki to switch their vote from Johhny to Dunnstral halfway through day 2 as scum. There are explanations, not enough momentum, keeping Johnny for later, maintainingl consistency from old behavior related to replace outs and how they approach it, impatience, it not really mattering if they're both Town etc. But I'm not sure how plausible these are, rather which would be more likely or if it's just on the tin and Hiraki just got into an argument with Dunnstral, agreed with Gamma, realized not much was happening with Johnny and hopped on Dunnstral.

I also think there's stuff that can be spin rather easily as Hiraki town.
I'm pretty conflicted because town are pretty often wrong about stuff. So it's more about examining if they're wrong for town reasons or not. I'm somewhat struggling to decide.