Mini Normal 2187: PIFiMDM [game over!]

[northsidegal]

i don't like the point i'm about to make because it feels like confirmation bias in that it just supports what i already think, but it seems to me given that mafia seem more concerned with keeping their jailkeeper than eliminating a conftown that they consider it important. i would wager to try to protect themselves from the vig shot, which would seemingly point more towards mafia being in the pool of people more suspected rather than less suspected, so more towards {elements, kaz}, less towards {2ndchosen, lunar, unwnd}

one problem with this is that even if they protect themselves from the vig shot, town collectively knows about the jailkeeper and so the vig could've just claimed where the shot went. that would mean that it'd be important to also kill the vig, so that town wouldn't figure out who they shot and have a soft guilty. so zito was probably a vig suspect shot?

[northsidegal]

also i think wagon analysis on yesterday is probably not actually all that useful. it's basically a certainty that scum were bussing hayker so really the only meaningful insight would be if you had some argument as to why some particular position on the wagon itself was more scummy than another

[northsidegal]

i am a little sad that i won't get my bragging rights for the instant scumteam prediction, but maybe i can at least have two out of three

[unwnd]

VOTE: 2ndchosen1

I don't hate it

But where does it come from exactly? As in, your posts to me didn't seem like they had a thought process I could follow

[Elements]

VOTE: unwnd
I still think this is the move
I may or may not read through the thread again tomorrow, we'll see

[northsidegal]

it's absolutely worth considering the world in which zito was killed for his reads over his potential for being a vig so just to make that clear, his scumreads yesterday seemed to be:

unwnd:

Honestly, unless I'm all sorts of wrong about this game and like the NPOM/unwnd slot is scum it feels like mafia have given up.

Can you expand on your NPOM/unwnd town read please

I'm still curious about your NPOM townread.

lunar:

Lunar does the scum thing of throwing shade, presuming intent in the worst light possible. They're either scum or exceptionally bad town, and either way need to be removed before endgame.

* I don't really think Lunar is town

those seem to be the main ones, at least on a quick skim

[northsidegal]

i would like to hear people's thoughts on the merits of a massclaim today

[Elements]

I think NSG makes a very good point that we should look into. Especially the bit about scum!unwnd

[northsidegal]

i also think that we never

really

hammered out a truly satisfying reason for agar being killed, and with more insight now we might be able to look back and figure out a better reason. at the very least it helps to know for certain that hayker was scum.

I think NSG makes a very good point that we should look into. Especially the bit about scum!unwnd

don't try to twist what i say for yourself.

[northsidegal]

Would love to yeet within {Hayker/NPOM/LM} today.

No desire to yeet within {PZ/GE/Alch/Elements} today.

{PP/Kazyan/Swims/Chosen} don't feel like flips where they'd give enough information as currently constructed, but there is likely some scumbag in there.

VOTE: Hayker

[Kazyan]

VOTE: 2ndchosen1

I don't hate it

But where does it come from exactly? As in, your posts to me didn't seem like they had a thought process I could follow

2ndchosen1's posts look really safe and inoffensive to me--even when he disagrees with someone, the points are more the vein of providing nuance/completeness than 'you are wrong because of reasons'. This makes me think he might be the jailkeeper laying low.

i would like to hear people's thoughts on the merits of a massclaim today

I see no way that this would benefit the town.

[northsidegal]

i would like to hear people's thoughts on the merits of a massclaim today

I see no way that this would benefit the town.

on further reflection i think you're actually right.

[Lunar Martian]

i also think that we never

really

hammered out a truly satisfying reason for agar being killed, and with more insight now we might be able to look back and figure out a better reason. at the very least it helps to know for certain that hayker was scum.

I think NSG makes a very good point that we should look into. Especially the bit about scum!unwnd

don't try to twist what i say for yourself.

Feels like distancing between Elements and northsidegal.

[Elements]

Does it though?
Does it really?

[Lunar Martian]

i also think that we never

really

hammered out a truly satisfying reason for agar being killed, and with more insight now we might be able to look back and figure out a better reason. at the very least it helps to know for certain that hayker was scum.

I think NSG makes a very good point that we should look into. Especially the bit about scum!unwnd

don't try to twist what i say for yourself.

Feels like distancing between Elements and northsidegal.

To elaborate, there's no pressure or FoS, just a "Hey I don't like you go away!". It's cheap and easy to tell someone to buzz off but with no actual pressure or analysis.

[Lunar Martian]

i would like to hear people's thoughts on the merits of a massclaim today

I see no way that this would benefit the town.

on further reflection i think you're actually right.

This also feels like Mafia throwing out an idea that would benefit them, and then backing off immediately when the idea gets shut down.

[Elements]

That thought had crossed my mind also

[northsidegal]

To elaborate, there's no pressure or FoS, just a "Hey I don't like you go away!". It's cheap and easy to tell someone to buzz off but with no actual pressure or analysis.

not everything needs to be pressure or analysis.

This also feels like Mafia throwing out an idea that would benefit them, and then backing off immediately when the idea gets shut down.

i think that your understanding of the way that scum plays is flawed. you also assume—and i say this while knowing full well that i am not very good at scum—that i am an absolutely

terrible

player. i'm not stupid. if i were scum proposing some idea to benefit me as scum, i wouldn't propose it without any sort of at least plausible justification. i wouldn't just throw some plan to benefit scum out with no reasoning and then back down the instant someone says "i disagree". i think that my progression there really only makes sense as genuine, and my lack of elaboration was deliberate.

[unwnd]

VOTE: 2ndchosen1

I don't hate it

But where does it come from exactly? As in, your posts to me didn't seem like they had a thought process I could follow

2ndchosen1's posts look really safe and inoffensive to me--even when he disagrees with someone, the points are more the vein of providing nuance/completeness than 'you are wrong because of reasons'. This makes me think he might be the jailkeeper laying low.

i would like to hear people's thoughts on the merits of a massclaim today

I see no way that this would benefit the town.

I'm not really thinking about who is playing what from a mechanics standpoint, in an assumption that Dannflor thinks (JK) is scum, it's not like holding onto that role is critical. What do you think of Elements thus far?

[unwnd]

Hayker - The claim
NPOM/unwnd - lack of any interaction with Hayker D1
Gamma or Papa for the third from poe

Gamma and papa are both dead so curious how this plays into why you just think it's me

[Elements]

Hayker - The claim
NPOM/unwnd - lack of any interaction with Hayker D1
Gamma or Papa for the third from poe

Gamma and papa are both dead so curious how this plays into why you just think it's me

Gamma and Papa being town mean my town reads are wrong. Doesn't say anything about my scum reads.

[unwnd]

If I'm entertaining the kill (even if I said I wouldn't), I just choose occam's razor every time. Scum kill people who are townie and those they can't ML. The only time reads from kill targets come into play if said read(s) is pure enough to where they either 1) are town by the way the read is formed 2) the read seems to be made in such a way that deems to incriminate scum. I don't think either applies because PZ wasn't an established presence, and he never really got a chance to elaborate on his thoughts. I think if I had to make an absolute guess, scum killed PZ because of EoD stuff and a bit of panic. I went into this game thinking that scum were pretty content with Hayker dying, but looking at the wagon alone and the deaths reflected makes me think otherwise. NSG was kinda right in that regard, wagonomics probably doesn't serve much purpose unless you think the placement of a certain vote is incriminating. In that regard, I know I'm town and the front end of the wagon seems alright to me, with the latter half likely just containing one scum, no more no less.

I think Hayker got himself into a bad position, but scum wasn't really attentive. It was more like a 'Hayker fucked himself' moment, because like

Hayker was pretty unanimously scumread right? If my scummate is going down I'm gonna just go 'yup it's him' to save my own ass or I'm gonna look the other way. I felt like Gamma was the one who was being complicit in this plan initially but I'm not gonna sit here and eat more crow than I have to. I think 2ndchosen1 is a good vote in terms of the latter, because I just didn't feel like he wanted to commit. He kept his Hayker thought at arms reach despite the fact he seemingly has the most amount of experience with him. Meta isn't an ultimate tell or anything like that but as I mentioned before..why did he just sit and let Hayker die. Reads like fear of commitment and afraid of saying too much.

VOTE: 2ndchosen1

[unwnd]

Hayker - The claim
NPOM/unwnd - lack of any interaction with Hayker D1
Gamma or Papa for the third from poe

Gamma and papa are both dead so curious how this plays into why you just think it's me

Gamma and Papa being town mean my town reads are wrong. Doesn't say anything about my scum reads.

Who else besides me is scum?

[Elements]

Haven't got that far yet
Hence reading the thread again tomorrow

[unwnd]

I just don't really understand why you remain obtuse about my presence, I said it before but NPOM is no longer in this game. You have a decent amount of people who think you're scum. It feels like you're not reading current events and instead come in here sticking with basically D2 reads at this point. That was why I quoted your post in regards to your townreads, because I would imagine you'd be thinking that your train of thought was possibly wrong.