Micro 1006 | Hydrogen-9121 | The End

[Agent of Chaos]

I townread myself (shocking!). I townread you. I townread whoever is the only cop claim.
This leaves Vanderscamp and Xijingping as potential scum!
Vander was active, but wasn't
a) bussing Robert
b) defending Robert && trying to create another wagon

Xijingping wasn't active, so he couldn't try to derail Robert. When he came back, Robert's TERMINATION was almost decided!

[Robert M Hunter]

meow

[Sirius9121]

xijinping has been prodded (sorry, late prod.)
His replacement timer is 24h.

[Vanderscamp]

I townread myself (shocking!). I townread you. I townread whoever is the only cop claim.
This leaves Vanderscamp and Xijingping as potential scum!
Vander was active, but wasn't
a) bussing Robert
b) defending Robert && trying to create another wagon

Xijingping wasn't active, so he couldn't try to derail Robert. When he came back, Robert's TERMINATION was almost decided!

When you say I wasn't bussing Robert, what do you mean?

[RationalMadman]

Fae means you didn't vote Robert on the bandwagon that forced him to out.

[RationalMadman]

AoC told Robert to claim Vanilla as WIFOM. This is also why and how AoC was online to instantly unvote after the claim, trying very much to passively divert us away from Robert but not wanting to risk pushing on me, as Fae wished to still appear like a towny troll and also because I was one of the only town players defending AoC.

I am very sure of this vote.

[RationalMadman]

This also explains why I was left alive and Enchant was nightkilled. AoC as scum would leave me alive and nightkill my hugest town read (Enchant) hoping somehow that the seer investigated Enchant, if it wasn't Enchant or investigated someone who wasn't AoC.

Furthermore, Enchant had suggested that AoC be investigated at the end of Day Phase 1, so AoC could be quite certain that if Enchant were a PR, he'd investigate AoC.

[RationalMadman]

The Hydra was agitated with Enchant for unvoting Robert and tried to develop a case for Enchant being scum if Robert flips town, towards the ending of the Day Phase where there'd be no real point in doing so as a scum oartner of Robert, especially not when the Hudra themselves votes Robert over myself and encourages others to push.

Vander would not tell Robert to claim Vanilla rather than Seer. Vander also wouldn't follow up the releaae of pressure we have Robert by insisting we keep the pressure on him.

[RationalMadman]

There is no sensible partner of Robert other than AoC from my perspective at this point in the game, Since N_M is the unCCd Cop.

[Agent of Chaos]

If I CCed N_M, would you vote outside of {me, N_M}?

[Agent of Chaos]

Vander would not tell Robert to claim Vanilla rather than Seer.

Elaborate?

[Agent of Chaos]

The Hydra was agitated with Enchant for unvoting Robert and tried to develop a case for Enchant being scum if Robert flips town, towards the ending of the Day Phase where there'd be no real point in doing so as a scum oartner of Robert, especially not when the Hudra themselves votes Robert over myself and encourages others to push.

Looks like bussing to me.

[Agent of Chaos]

Not the kind of bussing where you create a crowd to TERMINATE your partner, but where you join an already created crowd which is likely going to TERMIANTE your partner anyways.

[RationalMadman]

If I CCed N_M, would you vote outside of {me, N_M}?

There is absolutely no reason to ask or wonder about that if you are Town. That is stupid to even ask and yes 'stupid questions'

do exist.

The answer is no, the reason is so obvious that I will not type it out.

[RationalMadman]

Vander would not tell Robert to claim Vanilla rather than Seer.

Elaborate?

Only someone who genuinely believed that claiming Vanilla was a great bluff which would get the bandwagon away from Robert would recommend doing this. Vander is very experienced, he'd almost 100% recommend Robert to CC Seer because what you (AoC) don't understand and I now understand you weren't pretending to not understand earlier, is that if Scum doesn't CC Seer, Town is likely to still eliminate the Vanilla claim that they already did scumread anyway, in order to protect PR-outing risk.

Furthermore, what you

definitely don't gras

is that the strategy of Mafia, more so than Town, in a setup like this, needs to be defensive and built around worst-case scenarios. Town had 9/25 shot at pure physical autowin on Day 2 (3/5 chance Vanilla dies at night multiplied by 3/5 chance that Seer investigated non-Cop living Vanilla or the last Werewolf) which would instead be 0/25 had Robert CC'd Seer.

Furthermore, that 9/25 is not the full probability of how bad the situation was for Scum. If on Day 2, the 11/25 happens, the Scum is still severely screwed because there's almost definitely one Townie (in this case myself) that is too blatantly Town to lose to scum in the 2-way let alone 3-way which we would typically have here. Unfortunately the scenario that absolutely guaranteed Werewolf evened-game probability to win happened; the Seer died (there is one other way this works out for scum, if Cop died and the Seer investigated the Cop, that helps Scum practically just as much since Seer will have to out this day phase or risk being successfully CC'd by WW on Day Phase 3 regardless.

Do I think Vander would encourage Robert to land Vander into 9/25 probability autoloss on DP2 if Robert gets eliminated vs 0/25 chance if Robert claims Seer? No. Do I think you would? Yes. Do I think the Hydra would? No.

Do I think that Robert, on his own, took the initative to do that without consulting his partner? Possibly, which is the only thing I hesitate(d) about scumreading you based on after Robert's flip. However, everything Vander and the Hydra did towards the end of the DP1 implied they would love to get rid of Robert rather than risk anyone else outing, you implied the opposite.

The Hydra was agitated with Enchant for unvoting Robert and tried to develop a case for Enchant being scum if Robert flips town, towards the ending of the Day Phase where there'd be no real point in doing so as a scum oartner of Robert, especially not when the Hudra themselves votes Robert over myself and encourages others to push.

Looks like bussing to me.

Not the kind of bussing where you create a crowd to TERMINATE your partner, but where you join an already created crowd which is likely going to TERMIANTE your partner anyways.

See my answer to above.

[RationalMadman]

"Furthermore, what you definitely don't gras "

grasp, not gras

[Agent of Chaos]

Assume I am town. Vander was around when the VT claim was cast. Hence, Vander is 99% town. Hydra wasn't around, so hydra is probably scum, who didn't tell Hunter to claim VT, and hunter claimed VT on his own. Correct?

[RationalMadman]

Assume I am town. Vander was around when the VT claim was cast. Hence, Vander is 99% town. Hydra wasn't around, so hydra is probably scum, who didn't tell Hunter to claim VT, and hunter claimed VT on his own. Correct?

I would suspect Vander over the Hydra because of who was online during the time the bandwagon happened on Robert. It is possible he warned Robert on the scum chat that the bandwagon is happening, it appeared Robert wasn't reading the game thread at all for the whole day before.

It is possible, Vander didn't specify what to claim to Robert and Robert jumped the gun and claimed Vanilla.

It is also possible what you said is true and the Hydra didn't but what doesn't make the slightest bit of sense to me is townreading you in the first place. You acted exactly how you would have, had you been Robert's partner.

[RationalMadman]

When I said 11/25 the reason is that there was 4/25 chance that the person investigated by the seer died and the additional 1/25 where they didn't die but seer investigated WW so 9+5 is 14

[RationalMadman]

No sorry I meant seer dying makes it 5

[RationalMadman]

There was 1/5 chance (5/25) for WW to stand a chance and 2/25 only that it would be this evened out.

[RationalMadman]

Then there was 11/25 chance on top of the 5 for WW to basically nit really stand a chance qhen we factor in reads and towntelling from DP1 as usually one vanilla towntold strongly enough. It was basically an allin gamble that Scum did where if Robert doesn't get unvoted, they wasted all the gambit to severe consequences.

[xijinping]

Hi sorry. this has been a really busy week

-Xi

[xijinping]

I will hopefully catch up soon

-Xi

[RationalMadman]

WW had to either kill the Seer or the person investigated by the Seer to have a proper shot at winning. Only if they killed the Cop with Seer investigating the Cop would it be essentially as good as killing the Seer.

That is the simplest non-mathematical way to explain my above posts.

If WW honestly thought they'd win a threeway vanillas-vs-them scenario, that arrogance ti make it worth the risk probably comes from a player like AoC. It could be argued that I'd do that, however I ask you why on Earth I would be the slearhead of voting Robert out if Robert didn't CC Seer. Surely if I bussed Robert, I'd get him to CC Seer. Let me tell you jow, as a Wwerewolf there, Robert should always CC Seer, always. There's no reason at all to CC Vanilla instead. None. I would not risk such things. 36% shot at pure autowin for Town and essentially 80% outcimes don't even the game out for me at all as WW or Robert if I were eliminated instead... I would not force this outcome, ever. That's just stupid.