FGO: Mafia in the Lostbelt - 2 Game Over

[Servant Lancer]

this is @ both of you I guess: why do you think caster died last night instead of me?

[Servant Assassin]

okay these are for assassin.

1. can you explain why you were townreading saber on D1?

Spoiler: relevant quotes

I have now actually had time to read the thread more closely than skimming.

I think it's pretty clear archer is town. Caster and Saber each are relatively towny. I do think a cop shot which would 100% go off (there is literally no way for scum counterplay) to start is just the best option, but if it isn't going to be me, saber is a fine 2nd choice.

I have yet to see anything that comes off as scummy, though beserker's appeal to cabd and the resultant thought to elect a charismatic town leader was off-putting.

@Berserker, Your townreads focus a fair amount on who agrees with you. I find this a significant problem for thread health. A good master/stump cannot be vulnerable to buddying. Every stump game town wins without toxic cheating replaceouts won because of the fact the stumps were open to criticism by town. I'm worried that is not the case because of your townread rational, particularly on Archer and Alter.

I'm just going to use this post as springboard and then segue into a broad holistic overview of my thoughts on various subjects this game.

Firstly with regard to the above, I am not worried whatsoever about berserkers ability to play a town leader role. He's a reasonable player, he does not ignore people, he's diligent, and I'm betting experienced. After his last reads wall any reservations I had as to his alignment are gone. Frankly Saber, as I've seen more of your play, I've grown more skeptical not of your alignment, which I think is still likely town, but of your ability to play competently in general and even to use your role effectively. You have now, and earlier in different contexts, brought up the concept of scum buddying as a tactic to watch out for. I do not think this is something to be overly concerned about this game even if it is happening somewhere, and with regards to berserker, I do think the man is capable of read fluidity. I do not think his top town reads have undergone much change (aside from maybe caster) but I can sense it with how he approaches my own read which looks like its taking more than one curve.

Now were I master, I might have this problem. Whether gained through buddying or not, my confident town reads tend to stick forever once I've made them, and I am extremely stubborn. I still just cannot imagine Caster/Alter-ego/Ruler being scum. Personally the fact that Ruler appears further down most people's reads lists is simply shocking to me. On the flip side, I am having a fair amount of difficulty establishing a solid scum read. The candidates I've thought about this game that remain for me now, namely, lancer/foreigner/avenger/moon caster have not really done anything that is explicitly scummy, that is, something that I can go ahead and say to myself "town never does this," or even "scum will do this a lot more than town would". A few of those names appear in other people's scum reads, but I simply do not have that same decisiveness. Foreigner's a good example of this. The points berserker makes about him to call him lean town, are not things to call someone town over. When I get to Ruler's retort, I think it goes too far in the opposite direction. of the three posts discussed, 162 is null, 171 is definitely a potshot which I don't like but can't say if it's scummy, and 388 is fine to me if a bit pithy. My uncertainty about foreigner doesn't factor in these posts anyway, its how they approach caster, which I find to be on the slight scummy side.

As for the talk around scum's approach to master candidates and resistance therein... I don't really think scum has much of a plan from the empirical evidence. Basically their chance came and went within the first six pages. If people think they go for the mechanic angle, I really don't think saber was their best bet. Perhaps they sold themselves as able to pull it off in their scum PT but kinda doubt it. If anything I'd have thought berserker's method would be more like what scum might try if they tired at all, as it was a bit of a strongman job. The lack of polarization on the choices is unfortunate. There very well might have been some info to be gleaned but I don't consider that a major loss, or a particularly strong worry as some here might.

2.

Spoiler: relevant quotes

As for Beserker's entry, I mean... I can't say it's a particularly bad choice, I mildly townread him. Not thrilled its coming in this late when I feel the opportunity should have more organically happened when me and saber made our bids. The only other option at this point I see town possibly consolidating around is lancer, should he choose to make it.

did you mention me because I was someone that you would support getting master? if no, why mention me if you were still scumreading me? if yes, why?

Early on, I got the impression that Saber was a newbie that wore her heart on her sleeve. The way she talked about her role in the beginning of the game looked genuine to me, from both the fact she was not hesitant to qualify its power and her insistence that she had a duty to become the master. I was a bit disarmed and didn't think a newbie could make all that up out of whole cloth. By the time of the 2nd quote you mention, my opinion of saber's ability to actually analyze the game correctly and competently was low. However, that was in line with what I perceived her skill level to be and nothing she said was obviously scummy to me. It was only after I started to reread isos and have a deep think on the slot that my mind changed.

As for your second question, I was making an observation, not an endorsement or an advertisement . I'm not sure why I even bothered saying that, other than to add context to where I thought the master selection could possibly go at that point, and who perhaps could get away with a bid naturally based on the gamestate at the time (you had townreads, berserker's were not yet established).

this is @ both of you I guess: why do you think caster died last night instead of me?

WIFOM

I don't think there is or would be any significant difference in how e-lo would play out whether you or caster were here instead of the other. With caster dying Alter can throw up caster's last vote at crunch time. Its a perfect time to make stupid decisions. They would not be so impulsive today were they alive. At least I'd hope so, considering they previously thought Alter was scum when compared to beast/rider and the only thing that seemed to have swayed them was ATE, which should have been discarded in the first place.

[Servant Assassin]

god my anxiety is through the roof. I am going to be so happy to put myself out of my misery.

Please take your time. I very much believe it's not a hard decision if you can decide calmly.

I know because its practically the same one I made yesterday, and voting Alter over Caster wasn't hard. (It wasn't

comfortable

, but it wasn't agonizing).

[Servant Assassin]

I'm going to cut through a lot of the minutiae of this game to make what this choice is in simple terms.

It is your prerogative to think Alter's dayplay was better than my own. I freely admit it was, it was better than anyone's. The amount of effort Alter put into the game was unparalleled, they were on all scum eliminations, and I personally with a couple exceptions cannot find much to criticize. If you put that as a point in their favor I'd understand.

But the ones in mine should leave little room for doubt.

I was roleblocked by caster on a night 2, a night with a kill. Caster was not roleblocked by Archer on that night because they blocked Avenger night one 100%. The only way to get through that if I were scum would be if I had a strongman ability, or an ascetic ability, but the flipped scum already have those abilities.

My role has contributed to clearing a townie. Whether you think it was used optimally or not, the effect is the same. And it wasn't any old clear, it was clear at a latter day when mis-elimination options were limited and crucial for scum. And it was one that scum in my position could have easily avoided. Alter, for all their contributions, could not achieve this.

I will also mention here, though it's a less important point, that even yesterday I basically confirmed Caster as town by taking a stance first and voting Alter. Until that point it was obvious that Alter was gunning more for caster. If I was scum the safe option was just waiting out the timer.

[Servant Alter Ego]

this is @ both of you I guess: why do you think caster died last night instead of me?

She had started to suspect Assassin more, you were voting me. Most people have a very hard time re-calibrating their suspicions even after a nightkill and will talk themselves into their initial read.

[Servant Lancer]

My head wants me to vote alter, and my heart wants me to vote assassin. and I keep rereading and rereading and rereading hoping for some sign that will make me feel better about either decision and I’ve gotten nowhere.

[Servant Lancer]

more stuff in the morning I think. idk if it will help at all but one can hope.

[Servant Alter Ego]

90% of the time going with your head is the right call.

[Servant Alter Ego]

It's not here, but, I'm just saying. Ignoring your head feels a lot worse when it's wrong.

[Servant Assassin]

Discard all AtE. I'll await morning thoughts.

[Servant Lancer]

I’m not sure I’ll ever get past the mech clear to voting assassin.

There’s also some stuff in the scum team’s ISO that makes me think they were trying to distance really hard from alter, in particular moon cancer scumreading and hardpushing alter and naming a POE of saber, foreigner, and alter. and I think the scum team would have played differently during the master selection phase if both assassin and saber were scum and competing for master

idk that’s where I’m at atm

[Cabd]

With 3 servants alive, it will take 2 votes to burn a servant.

Assassin (1): Alter Ego
Alter Ego (1): Assassin

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Deadline: (expired on 2021-08-17 22:02:30)

[Servant Alter Ego]

I’m not sure I’ll ever get past the mech clear to voting assassin.

There’s also some stuff in the scum team’s ISO that makes me think they were trying to distance really hard from alter, in particular moon cancer scumreading and hardpushing alter and naming a POE of saber, foreigner, and alter. and I think the scum team would have played differently during the master selection phase if both assassin and saber were scum and competing for master

idk that’s where I’m at atm

Right, and you're alive because you made it obvious that's the way you were thinking yesterday.

The idea that moon was trying to distance from me is just dumb, though. He put me as his top scumread

before

he started bussing his teammates, when he was voting saber for master. The switch in reads was an obvious panic move when it became clear that Saber wasn't going to win the vote. To think that you'd have to believe he was trying to bus the objectively best positioned member of his team over anyone else. That's completely illogical.

[Servant Alter Ego]

I don't mind if we lose off mechanical fuckery and I said if I can't get past that then to just vote me, but being hit with such illogical nonsense at this stage of the game really does annoy me.

[Servant Assassin]

I don't have anything to add except to say that 464 was scum being cheeky and taunting town by exposing the whole team (that 'one scum left to find' was moon cancer).

[Cabd]

With 3 servants alive, it will take 2 votes to burn a servant.

Assassin (1): Alter Ego
Alter Ego (1): Assassin

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Deadline: (expired on 2021-08-17 22:02:30)

[Servant Lancer]

VOTE: alter

sorry if this is wrong. so sorry. ugh.

[Cabd]

With 3 servants alive, it will take 2 votes to burn a servant.

Assassin (1): Alter Ego
Alter Ego (2): Assassin, Lancer

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Deadline: (expired on 2021-08-17 22:02:30)

[Cabd]

The Servants lined up. The starter's gun fired. And then: pandemonium! A huge pile-up as everyone's shoelaces were tied together!

No, wait, this isn't The Darkest Timeline where deadline expired.


The Servants lined up. The starter's gun fired. And then the three racers were off, leaving cartoon-style dust clouds in their wake.

Atalanta lounged back in her chair. "Even for Servants a marathon will take some time. May as well take a load off."

The three Servants jostled for position as they took laps in and around the arena. Bottled mana was ready for them on a table near the course path, some very much needed energy boosts given the strenuous activity.

The race neared the finish line with a few laps to go. Servant Alter Ego was slightly in the lead, and as he reached the table, in one smooth motion he swiped all but one of the mana bottles down, leaving the last one to grab himself. The other two Servants stopped in their tracks.

"What do you think you're doing?" "How rude!" "That's not very honorable conduct here!"

Servant Alter Ego shrugged. "What? My hand slipped!" Her gaze shifted away from the other two when she saw they didn't buy it. "You can't take my Golden Apple for this!"

"Wanna bet?" Summer Meltryllis snapped her fingers, and one of her

penguins

leviathans darted forward, snatching Ashiya Dōman's Golden Apple from his hand and impaling it on its beak. The leviathan waddled over to Atalanta, who received the apple with all due gravity. She weighed it in her hand while staring at the three Servants.

But then only two. Ashiya Dōman sighed as she began to dematerialize. "So close to victory...hardly any distance intergalactically speaking..." And she was gone.

Osakabehime took a deep breath. "I think that was enough adventure for me for a year. Glad that's over. Arigathank you Meltyrllis for having my back!"

Meltyrllis looked at Servant Assassin coolly. "Are you still here? Don't you have an anime season to catch up on?" But there was a hint of smile on her face, even with her eyes hidden behind sunglasses and her parka shadowing her features.

Atalanta conjured up two wreathes and tossed them down to the living Servants. "I think you can both win this Festival, and we'll give credit to your dead friends too. I'm calling that a successful event; everyone pack up all your QP and get back to Chaldea. Singularities await!"

The crowd began to mobilize, but slowly, with lots of chatting.

"I can be nice. I'll let Nero sing for the Closing Ceremonies." She handed her the now-working microphone.

Dust clouds multiplied as Servants fled the stands.

[Cabd]

Discussion of the crazy odds of assassin pulling that off and upcoming scummy nom.

Troll. You be nice to Lancer.

--PA, who has co-mod edit powers, dealwithit.jpg

[penguin_alien]

Servant Alter Ego, Ashiya Dōman, as played by petapan:

Spoiler:

Class, Faction, Player Name, and True Name

Alter Ego
Mafia
Petapan
Ashiya Dōman

Alignment, Gender, Attribute, and Traits

Chaotic-Evil
Genderless
Earth
Demonic, Divine, Humanoid, Servant, Weak to Enuma Elish

skills

Ridicule Cat EX ~ Twice during the game, at night, you may use this ability. Choose a target to inflcit with the Terror Debuff.

Terror

: Your target is unable to gain NP stars or use any skills for the day and night after this debuff is applied. Your target will be informed of this.

Dark Karma A ~ Once during the game, during the Day, you may use this ability. Select two targets. You, and any of your targets that have either the Evil or Chaotic trait, will join a single neighborhood. If any of your targets have both of these alignments, they will be loverized to you as well:
this means that if you or the Evil-Chaotic target is killed in any manner, both of you are killed.

Curse of Dōman A++ ~ Twice during the game, you may perform the factional kill with a Ninja modifier applied.

Noble Phantasm

Kyouran Dotou - Akuryousafu (Maelstrom - The Demonic Left Minister) ~ ***** ~ At night, target a player. They will be afflicted with the "Terrible Curse" debuff.

Terrible Curse

: You may not use your Noble Phantasm. This debuff lasts for 5 phases (both night and day are phases)

[penguin_alien]

Servant Assassin, Osakabehime, as played by ActionDan:

Spoiler:

Class, Faction, Player Name, and True Name

Assassin
Town
Action Dan
Osakabehime

Alignment, Gender, Attribute, and Traits

Chaotic-Neutral
Female
Earth
Divine, Female, Humanoid, Servant, Weak to Enuma Elish

skills

Four Gods Divination (Hakuro) A ~ You are untargetable during day phases.

Chiyogami Manipulation EX ~ Once during the game, at the day phase, you may use this ability. Select a target. That target will be told they have gained a protective charm. The charm will block the next incoming negative status and instead grant them *****.

Castle Ghost A++ ~ Once during the game, at night, you may use this skill. Pick a target. You will send them a ghost. Your target will be announced as having been visited by a ghost publicly the next day start.

Noble Phantasm

Hakuro-jou no Hyakki Hachitendou-sama (Lord Hachitendo of Hakuro Castle's Hundred Demons) ~ *** ~ You may activate this Noble Phantasm during the day. When you do, select a target. They will be invited to sit with you in your private Kotasu PT starting the following night phase. (They may choose to decline; you will not learn whether they join your PT until that following night) Each use of this Noble Phantasm will allow you to add additional players to your single Kotasu PT. If at any time you invite a Mafia-aligned player in your Kotasu and they accept, you will die. The Kotasu will then be locked.

Servant Lancer, Summer Meltyrllis, as played by lilith2013:

Spoiler:

Class, Faction, Player Name, and True Name

Lancer
Town
lilith2013
Mysterious Alter Ego Λ

Alignment, Gender, Attribute, and Traits

Lawful-Good
Female
Earth
Costume-Owning, Demonic, Divine, Dragon, Female, Humanoid, Mechanical, Riding, Servant, Weak to Enuma Elish

skills

Swan Lake A ~ You may use this ability once during the game, at night. Select a target. Your penguins will attempt to deliver a friendly neighbor message to your target. If your target has the Divine trait, this action will fail.

Perfect Fluid B ~ You are immune to all posting restrictions including game mechanic ones. (This means you may make unlimited posts without penalty, and the cooldown phase is not in effect for your posting)

Melt Envy EX ~ You may use this ability once during the game, at day. When you do, select a target. You will immediately steal ** from them, keeping them for yourself.

Noble Phantasm

Blue Summer Palladion (That Summer Dew is Like Glass) ~ **** ~ You may use this Noble Phantasm during the day phase. When you do, the thread will be left unlocked at night and you will be allowed to post freely. You may optionally target one other player to join you in this ability. Your companion, should you choose one, is limited to 10 posts.

[penguin_alien]

The Town wins!

Beast - Bell - Cath Palug
Ruler - Mastina --> Momrigal - Joan of Arc
Caster - Pooky/Anastasia - Anastasia
Berseker - Notscience --> Gamma Emerald - Ecchan
Rider - Brian Skies - Achillies
Lancer - lilith2013 - Summer Melt
Assassin - Action Dan - Osakabehime
Archer - Lukewarm - Nightingale (Santa)
Avenger - VFP - Antonio Salieri
Shielder - Raya36 --> Dunnstral - Ortenax (LB1-4)

[penguin_alien]

Night Actions here when time permits

[penguin_alien]

Links to come when time permits:

Mafia PT
Spoiler-Free Spectator/Dead PT
Spoilered Spectator/Dead PT

Neighborhoods:
Alter Ego/Berserker PT
Caster/Berserker PT

Notes PTs: