Open 82: Texas Justice Mafia (Game Over!) before 626

Mirth
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Post Post #0  (ISO)  » Sat Jun 28, 2008 5:19 pm

Howdy y'all and welcome ta beautiful, historic, and scenic Odessa, Texas. Ah'm Miz Mirth and ah'll be your local guide here at El Hacienda Nuestra Señora de la Virgen Santa Que Tiene Gust de Aparecer en Tostada del Desayuno. Unfortunately there seems ta be some sort of mix-up back at the travel agency, and it seems that among you greenhorns there are a couple of Eyetalians meanin' ta go ta Tijuana? Well, that would explain how Bobby Ray done went and got 'imself shot last night. The darn no good travel agency went and mixed up mah files, so ah don't know who's who, but ah know there are three of the darned murderin' Eyetalians here. Now ah'm a purdy good shot mahself, but ah got ta be feedin' the cattle and such, so ah don't have time to shot y'all and avenge Bobby Ray's murder. How about ah give y'all some guns and some ammo and y'all go have it out out back or somethin'? Sorry ta say, but after Lulu Mae went huntin' last week, we only got enough to give y'all one bullet each...ah think the Eyetalians brought their own ammo though...If most of y'all can agree on who you want gotten rid of, ah suppose ah could personally handle it, and set up the gallows so we can watch the no-good fella dance the Danny Deever.

(Translation for those that don't feel like reading the flavor: There are 12 of you. 3 of you are mafia, 9 of you are town-aligned one-shot vigs. Aside from the normal day-lynching that goes on, mafia as a group gets one kill every night, and each vig has one kill they can use on any night during the game, after which point they become a vanilla townie. Also, I want some holy toast. The end.)


Alive and Ridin' (3/12)

ashmite84 - One Shot Vig
Linehouse - One Shot Vig
The Fonz - One Shot Vig


Pushin' up the daisies in the prairie (9/12)
ClockworkRuse - One Shot Vig
Crazy - One Shot Vig
Starkmoon
[s]dcorbe[/s] - One Shot Vig
farside22 - One Shot Vig
Iron Man - One Shot Vig
Light-kun - One Shot Vig
somestrangeflea - Mafia Goon
Sun Tzu - Mafia Goon
Tom -Mafia Goon


Next post, the roles.
Last edited by Mirth on Tue Jul 15, 2008 12:44 am, edited 19 times in total.

Mirth
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Post Post #1  (ISO)  » Sat Jun 28, 2008 5:46 pm

The Roles

9 of y'all innocent tourists will get this role:
Howdy, pardner! You seem to be stuck in the wrong place at the wrong time. Luckily, you have a gun, though sadly only one bullet, making you a One-Shot Vigilante. You have one kill you can use at night anytime in the game, if you so choose, by sending me the name of the player you want to kill. After you have used up your bullet, you become a plain, powerless townie.

You win when all of the mafia are dead. Good luck.


3 of y'all in the Mafia will get this role
Buon giorno, signore, you and your associates XXXX and YYYY are members of the New Jersey Mafia meaning to practice your murderin' skills. Each night (and only during the night) you and your associates may converse and one of you may send me the name of the player your group wishes to assassinate. That player will be killed.

You win when at least half of the living players are mafia, or nothing can prevent this from happening. Buona Fortuna.


Next post, the rules.

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Post Post #2  (ISO)  » Sat Jun 28, 2008 5:56 pm

RULES(stolen and modified from all them other folks who post rules)

- Only black, visible text is allowed in this thread.Blue is my colour, and there will be modkilling involved if I see anyone else using it.
- No quoting or fake-quoting any PMs from the mod. This is a modkillable offense. It will result in me having to take you out back…and…well…we all know what happened to Old Yeller…
- If you wish to vote, you must bold your vote as such: vote:mirth, or it will not be counted. Unvotes would be very much appreciated, but not necessary.
- The will be no discussing this game outside of this thread unless your role specifically permits you to do so.
- Lynching shall be accomplished by simple majority vote. Once a player reaches the majority needed for a lynch, unvotes will stop counting and the day will end.
- If you’re one of them tree-hugging hippie types and wish to avoid a lynch, you may vote:no lynch If a simple majority of people votes no lynch, the day shall end without one.
- No posting in this thread once you’re dead. If you want to gripe about dying, please wait until the game ends.
- No editing or deleting posts. If I catch you, there shall be modkilling. (Gosh, I feel like a lifeguard, with all of these rules starting with no)
- If, for any reason, I have to mod-kill someone, the day will automatically end.
- Night choices must be submitted by the deadline given to each night phase. If I do not get a night choice from you and/or your partner(s), nothing will happen.
- I would appreciate it if y’all didn’t take forever. All days shall have a tentative deadline of one month after they start, but if you wish to end them earlier, normal lynch/no-lynch rules apply. Deadlines shall be modified based on activity in this thread or if you ask me real nicely.
- For a deadline lynch to occur, one more than half of the votes needed for a normal majority shall be needed for a deadline lynch. (If you need 7 votes for a normal lynch, you will need 4 to lynch at deadline. However, in a situation where there are 4 or less players remaining, normal majority rules will still apply for deadline)
- Please be active. If you’re going to be unavailable for more than 2 days, either post a note in this thread or PM the mod. Thank you.
- Prods shall be sent after 4 days of unexcused inactivity and be given a 3-day window of response. Then I will start looking for replacements. If you want prods sent sooner, ask me in thread. If you want to ask me a question in thread, please bold it
- If you wish to take issue with the Word of Mod, I would prefer if you did so by PM. (Though feel free to correct vote counts or such in thread.) If you have any questions, also feel free to PM me or post them in thread.
- Play nice kids.

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Post Post #3  (ISO)  » Sat Jun 28, 2008 5:59 pm

Status: Roles sent, waiting for confirmation. Day will start once everyone has confirmed.

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Post Post #4  (ISO)  » Mon Jun 30, 2008 12:28 pm

Everyone has confirmed.

With 12 alive, it will take 7 to lynch.

Tentative deadline: August 1, 12:00 PM


Giddy up!

Crazy
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Post Post #5  (ISO)  » Mon Jun 30, 2008 12:53 pm

Vote: Iron Man because superheroes don't belong in Texas.

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Post Post #6  (ISO)  » Mon Jun 30, 2008 12:56 pm

Vote: The Fonz because Arthur Fonzerelli wasn't a brit.

somestrangeflea
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Post Post #7  (ISO)  » Mon Jun 30, 2008 1:29 pm

1 to 11, top down.
[dice]1d11 = 1267158837 [/dice]

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Post Post #8  (ISO)  » Mon Jun 30, 2008 1:30 pm

Vote: farside22

You can't argue with dice...

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Post Post #9  (ISO)  » Mon Jun 30, 2008 1:34 pm

Using dice stinks.

Iron Man
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Post Post #10  (ISO)  » Mon Jun 30, 2008 2:07 pm

Since when did Superheroes now belong in Texas? Havent you ever watched the show "Heroes"?
I'm back.

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Post Post #11  (ISO)  » Mon Jun 30, 2008 2:09 pm

Vote Light-kun because he was the seventh player on the mod's list.
Laughter and tears are both responses to frustration and exhaustion. I myself prefer to laugh, since there is less cleaning up to do afterward.
- Kurt Vonnegut

Returning with apologies to games I was in when I disappeared.

Iron Man
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Post Post #12  (ISO)  » Mon Jun 30, 2008 2:56 pm

What does him being seventh have to do with anything?
I'm back.

Linehouse
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Post Post #13  (ISO)  » Mon Jun 30, 2008 3:06 pm

vote: somestrangeflea because my Kirby avatar is clearly superior.

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Post Post #14  (ISO)  » Mon Jun 30, 2008 3:24 pm

Iron Man wrote:What does him being seventh have to do with anything?


Seven is my favorite number, so I just counted seven down the list. =D
Laughter and tears are both responses to frustration and exhaustion. I myself prefer to laugh, since there is less cleaning up to do afterward.
- Kurt Vonnegut

Returning with apologies to games I was in when I disappeared.

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Post Post #15  (ISO)  » Mon Jun 30, 2008 9:29 pm

vote: crazy, dice are nice!
In a permanent state of Limited Access. I'll understand if I'm replaced in my current games.

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Post Post #16  (ISO)  » Tue Jul 01, 2008 12:38 am

vote: dcorbe
I know sometime in this game I will have a headache because of him.
Sarcasm is just a way of saying how stupid you think someone is but in a more polite way.

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Post Post #17  (ISO)  » Tue Jul 01, 2008 12:01 pm

Vote Count!

Iron Man 1 <-- Crazy
The Fonz 1 <-- dcorbe
farside22 1 <-- somestrangeflea
Light-kun 1 <-- ClockworkRuse
somestrangeflea 1 <-- Linehouse
Crazy 1 <-- ashmite84
dcorbe 1 <-- farside 22

Not voting 5 <-- The Fonz, Light-kun, Iron Man, Sun Tzu, Tom

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Post Post #18  (ISO)  » Tue Jul 01, 2008 12:47 pm

Linehouse wrote: vote: somestrangeflea because my Kirby avatar is clearly superior.

Unvote, Vote: Linehouse

Insubordination is a scumtell.

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Post Post #19  (ISO)  » Tue Jul 01, 2008 12:49 pm

Since when are you my superior? :P

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Post Post #20  (ISO)  » Tue Jul 01, 2008 12:52 pm

dcorbe wrote:Vote: The Fonz because Arthur Fonzerelli wasn't a brit.


Vote: dcorbe

It's Fonzarelli.

Now, I'd like everyone's opinion on the validity or otherwise of the strategy of splitting everyone into pairs, no lynching, and demanding that each player vig their opposite number.

(I'm still running the numbers here myself, but thought it could be interesting. One of my reasons for signing up for this was an interest in exploring the game theory. The other was because I want to vig Farside. :P )

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Post Post #21  (ISO)  » Tue Jul 01, 2008 1:10 pm

The Fonz wrote:
dcorbe wrote:Vote: The Fonz because Arthur Fonzerelli wasn't a brit.


Vote: dcorbe

It's Fonzarelli.

Now, I'd like everyone's opinion on the validity or otherwise of the strategy of splitting everyone into pairs, no lynching, and demanding that each player vig their opposite number.

(I'm still running the numbers here myself, but thought it could be interesting. One of my reasons for signing up for this was an interest in exploring the game theory. The other was because I want to vig Farside. :P )


Interesting theory. The only thing that will be a flawed with this is if a mafia member get paired with another mafia member then the mafia wins. Would we randomize who gets shoots who? I think popcorn style choosing or even saying I want to shoot X leaves mafia members a lophole.
Sarcasm is just a way of saying how stupid you think someone is but in a more polite way.

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Post Post #22  (ISO)  » Tue Jul 01, 2008 1:16 pm

Perfectly random.

The mafia insta-wins if two mafiosi are paired together, and the town insta-wins otherwise.

I've calculated the possibility of a town win as just over 70% using this strategy.

farside22
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Post Post #23  (ISO)  » Tue Jul 01, 2008 1:28 pm

The Fonz wrote:Perfectly random.

The mafia insta-wins if two mafiosi are paired together, and the town insta-wins otherwise.

I've calculated the possibility of a town win as just over 70% using this strategy.


Random die roll works. I like those odds.
Sarcasm is just a way of saying how stupid you think someone is but in a more polite way.

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Post Post #24  (ISO)  » Tue Jul 01, 2008 1:28 pm

The math involved:

Take any one of the three mafiosi at random. There are eleven players he could be paired with. Two of the eleven (0.18 recurring) are his buddies. If he's paired with either, he wins; if not, we go to a second round.

If we have gone to a second round, the first mafioso has been paired with a vig. This leaves the second mafioso with a 1/9 chance of being paired with the third (we take out the first mafioso, the vig scumno1 is paired with, and scumn02 himself, which leaves nine potential partners, of whom one wins him the game, and eight cause him to lose).

So we have: 0.18 1st scum paired with buddy (mafia win)
0.81 we have a second round

(0.81*0.11111) = Probability, given first mafioso not paired with buddy, that the two remaining scum are paired = 0.09

(0.81*0.8888888) = probability no scum are paired at all = 0.73.

The first two together give us the odds of a scum win, which round to 27%
The last is the probability of a town win, which rounds to 73%

Now, I can see what the obvious objection here is: that's no fun. If we are going to do that, we might as well go with a random number generator, and allocate W/L based on that.

However, being part of the town requires me to do my upmost to fulfill my win condition, and i have a really hard time seeing how any other strategy can generate a higher expected town win %.

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