secret hitler II [7/7] (fascist victory!)

[Andante]

ok sorry my math was off deck is 4L 5F

[Who]

i want to know what the math is before i pass it

1 out of 3 (Peta hitler, pass government) is more probable than 1 out of 1 (Nein) is more probable than 2 out of 3 (Enchant hitler, pass government)

[Andante]

whick honestly.. idk how we wanna play this

[Andante]

I do know it's not for sure 2L 1 F

[Enchant]

Just vote Ja.

While i voted nein i did because i didn't believe Andante before.

[Andante]

Who, Dragons. do we want to gamble on the card flip from 4L 5F
or hope Enchant draws at least 2L

[Save The Dragons]

i wanna gamble on what has the best probability and that's what i'm confused about

[Andante]

I haven't voted so like, I wanna know what yall want to do

[petapan]

this is kind of suilly because its actually only a 10% swing as to whether we win or lose

but look at it this way

if we nein this gov: 2/5 chance of a liberal card flip, 40%

if we ja it: there are 10 possible card draws. we only in if enchant gets a combo with 2L's. There are 3 combinations of 2Ls and 1 of he Fs. that is a 30% chance

[Enchant]

Or we can assume i just start openwolfing as hitler instead of silently agreeing with everything and waiting my turn so i can just win instantly?

[Andante]

yeah.. well deck is 100% 4-5 right now

[petapan]

i can go over the math in more detail

[Andante]

Or we can assume i just start openwolfing as hitler instead of silently agreeing with everything and waiting my turn so i can just win instantly?

hitler can't be chancelor, no one said hitler couldn't be pres

[Enchant]

It's... Well.

40-50%?

[Save The Dragons]

i think i just needed 608

[Andante]

peta, what are you thinking here then.. ja or nein

[petapan]

yeah.. well deck is 100% 4-5 right now

it's not 4-5

cards are taken out when they get passed

there can only be 2 liberal cards left in because the others got played

[Who]

Okay done all the calculations:
If Peta is hitler and we vote Ja: Guaranteed win. (Even if 3 fascists, veto into guaranteed lib)
If Nein: 2/5 chance of win.
If Enchant is hitler and we vote Ja: 3/10 chance of win.

[Enchant]

Or we can assume i just start openwolfing as hitler instead of silently agreeing with everything and waiting my turn so i can just win instantly?

hitler can't be chancelor, no one said hitler couldn't be pres

If i am hitler and making in president i just force fascism and win instantly wtf.

[Enchant]

For this to happen i just needed to nod, and agree with you.

[Andante]

hmmm fun, ok just nein it and see what happens?

[petapan]

peta, what are you thinking here then.. ja or nein

i laid out the math for why nein is optimal fmpov since i know enchant is hitler

[Enchant]

My degeneracy confirms me as liberal

[Andante]

Or we can assume i just start openwolfing as hitler instead of silently agreeing with everything and waiting my turn so i can just win instantly?

hitler can't be chancelor, no one said hitler couldn't be pres

If i am hitler and making in president i just force fascism and win instantly wtf.

can't force it if you get 2 Ls

[Who]

So two out of 100% 40% 30% are our options.