Open 845 | 09:12 [Game Over]

[Dwlee99]

I also buried NM yesterday by pointing out how Malcolm being roleblocked is essentially a guilty on NM

[Dwlee99]

Yeah I was faking, half to try and draw the NK, half for shiggles. Koba kill is... interesting. It feels like a wifom kill but why would scum not want the dwlee-Koba conflict in ELo?

Also this post is like hard leaning in to trying to mislim me

[Dwlee99]

Gimme til tomorrow to actually catch up but from after the flips

[me]
[malc]
[dwlee]
[frog]
[koba!slot]
[N_M]
[Galron]

Your argument is actually hella contradictory too now that I look at your reads! You say frogs was obviously town so I wouldn't bring him, but if I were scum and was looking for who to bring to ELO... you had frogs lower than me. You didn't even remember your own fake read

[Andante]

Vote Count 4.1

Dwlee99 (1):

The Muffin Man

The Muffin Man (1):

Dwlee99

Not Voting (1):

MalcolmTucker

With 3 alive, it takes 2 to reach a majority.

Deadline (expired on 2022-03-11 23:12:32)

Mod Notes:
-If you see an issue with the VC Let me know!

[Dwlee99]

Like why would I bring conftown instead of "nonconftown that townread me over frog"

It's -EV in two ways

[Dwlee99]

And last quoted post by Frogs is Koba saying I'm ic levels of town

[Dwlee99]

So for me to be scum I
1.) Didn't shoot conftown
2.) Shot a person with momentum to townread me
3.) Shot a person that was more scumread than me by the last remaining townie
4.) Didn't shoot conftown???

Like what?

[MalcolmTucker]

Frogster heavily suspected you though, did they not? To the point where their vote was likely all but confirmed. From that POV it's not as ridiculous at all. Why wouldn't MM also eliminate me as confirmed town?

[MalcolmTucker]

You burying NM yesterday also kinda made sense, he was basically gone by that point, notably beforehand you were keen to settle on Galron and very much pushed the idea Galron was basically "openwolfing", which obviously turned out to be incorrect.

MM bringing me into today's game could be a misdirect but seems unlikely, Frogster was much more likely to vote for you in an instant and your only hope probably lies with convincing me to back you, however unlikely that may be.

[MalcolmTucker]

I think I'm not aligned with NM if you look at our joint ISOs. I mean I'm exasperated and annoyed at him claiming roleblocker for instance in the same way I was with house which is pretty clearly antiTMI that they were both not town PRs

I don't think your joint ISOs clear you that much, being exasperated at someone for making a false early claim is such an easy way to put distance between you. Notably you never really pushed too heavily after that.

[MalcolmTucker]

Mod said I have to post content or whatever so here's a readslist

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Not that NM's read list here exactly went into detail, but I don't see why they put their teammate so high up. Also don't believe NM would jump onto the final vote of an initial bandwagon started by his teammate, personally feels a bit too obvious.

My only concern re MM is that they did push that initial bandwagon but have been largely quiet riding the game out since then without much suspicion. There's a certain convenience to that, but we'd have to be extremely unlucky statistically for my role check on MM to end up being mafia as opposed to townie.

[MalcolmTucker]

Tbf i would also lowkey be down to kill N_M

Galron just scummier tho, so if we have the votes...

MM was willing to go NM day two, so not as if they mounted a particular defence, but did opt for Galron. But I did the same, as did most of us. In retrospect not a lot of thought really went into that vote.

[Dwlee99]

Frogster heavily suspected you though, did they not? To the point where their vote was likely all but confirmed. From that POV it's not as ridiculous at all. Why wouldn't MM also eliminate me as confirmed town?

I don't agree at all. It's about where Frogster would end up, not where they were. If you see where NM cut the day short, Frogster was reevaluating their read on me and (fmpov) seemed to be warming up to the idea I was town. I think NM's selfhammer also only really makes sense as a way to cut that discussion short + prevent muffin from having to do any awkward hop on bus etc.

[Dwlee99]

You burying NM yesterday also kinda made sense, he was basically gone by that point, notably beforehand you were keen to settle on Galron and very much pushed the idea Galron was basically "openwolfing", which obviously turned out to be incorrect.

MM bringing me into today's game could be a misdirect but seems unlikely, Frogster was much more likely to vote for you in an instant and your only hope probably lies with convincing me to back you, however unlikely that may be.

I was keen on Galron because he did the obvscum thing but without the same history as NM. I expect NM to quickhammer regardless of alignment, so it isn't a scum tell for him. The key here is I actually have a progression to come to my conclusions + reeval on NM, whereas I think muffin is just stating things without any actual thought.

[Dwlee99]

I think I'm not aligned with NM if you look at our joint ISOs. I mean I'm exasperated and annoyed at him claiming roleblocker for instance in the same way I was with house which is pretty clearly antiTMI that they were both not town PRs

I don't think your joint ISOs clear you that much, being exasperated at someone for making a false early claim is such an easy way to put distance between you. Notably you never really pushed too heavily after that.

Well I didn't push because I thought he was a power role. Why would I push that? Also I think you should look at how NM was trying to frame me with the koba kill. He literally entered the day like "oh why would scum kill koba if dwlee wasn't scum" to angle for that push, which I think shows he wanted me to be the mislim.

[Dwlee99]

Mod said I have to post content or whatever so here's a readslist

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Not that NM's read list here exactly went into detail, but I don't see why they put their teammate so high up. Also don't believe NM would jump onto the final vote of an initial bandwagon started by his teammate, personally feels a bit too obvious.

This is extremely level 0. I wouldn't be surprised if NM like randomized that list or something. Or even if it was planned... why not put your buddy high up? You don't want them limmed so??

My only concern re MM is that they did push that initial bandwagon but have been largely quiet riding the game out since then without much suspicion. There's a certain convenience to that, but we'd have to be extremely unlucky statistically for my role check on MM to end up being mafia as opposed to townie.

Your role check on MM was vanilla, not vanilla townie. NM flipped roleblocker so the last scum is vanilla meaning there is no alignment information in MM and I both being vanilla.

But also, yea, muffin has been coasting off nothing for three days.

[Dwlee99]

Tbf i would also lowkey be down to kill N_M

Galron just scummier tho, so if we have the votes...

MM was willing to go NM day two, so not as if they mounted a particular defence, but did opt for Galron. But I did the same, as did most of us. In retrospect not a lot of thought really went into that vote.

Imo that's just classic distance. It isn't hard to say "yea I'd kill my scum partner but actually let's kill this other person"

That's arguably TMI when NM was a claimed power role and he shouldn't even really be on anyone's list to yeet without a CC.

[Dwlee99]

Galron is now also the 2nd FoS of NM

That reads list was probably put into random.org

lol

[Dwlee99]

Spoiler: my reaction to NM claiming follower

so here's who i think is town and likely wont vote for today:

Malcom / Frog / Muffin / Dwlee(if PR)

and who the scummies are located in:

Galron, NM, Dwlee(not PR)


i see myself at worst having 1 of these wrong, and I think if anything its Muffin because their latest string of posts felt weird but their overall play has been good.

I'm the Follower so dwlee is not a PR

NM you know you could have let me be night killed right

VOTE: Dwlee

Okay it's galron/koba

Seriously I cannot believe I'm dealing with this again

Like Koba has me/NM/galron

NM becomes conftown

Koba votes me

Koba wanted to vote NM over Galron

Why? Cause they're scum together

Do you think town!koba thinks it's Galron and me based on their Poe and votes me here? With no like "oh y'know Dwlee was pushing Galron over NM here so maybe my reads are fucky wuckied?" Nah just straight to voting me

I think this is also NM angling to mislim me. I mean like Koba is saying "oh yea dwlee is scum if not a PR" and NM goes "yea dwlee isn't a PR" why would he do this if he's scum with me?

[Dwlee99]

Like he completely sets up this interaction:
Make Koba scumread me by saying I'm not a power role -> kill koba -> try to frame me for the kill.

[The Muffin Man]

Given you hadn't expressed a read by virtue of not being around at all yesterday, I have no reason to not at least try bringing frog here in case you scumread them over me. The only perspective it makes sense to bring conftown to ELO is when you know everyone's positions: which only you could have as scum because, again, you weren't around yesterday

this makes zero sense and totally disregards my ability to read up overnight? also we'll pick up on this later, but I think it's disingenuous to not think that my reads would change from pre-Galron-or-NM-flips after those both came round -- but I never got the chance to talk about either until now

I also buried NM yesterday by pointing out how Malcolm being roleblocked is essentially a guilty on NM

NM was going down yesterday regardless of what you did, and your play around him was in no way clearing -- firstly because ofc scum are bussing there) and the speed of your vote actually was antitown bc it let NM drop the self and end day early, which is actually v convenient when you wanna, let's say, target someone who hasn't posted before they get a chance to

Yeah I was faking, half to try and draw the NK, half for shiggles. Koba kill is... interesting. It feels like a wifom kill but why would scum not want the dwlee-Koba conflict in ELo?

Also this post is like hard leaning in to trying to mislim me

mmmm

Gimme til tomorrow to actually catch up but from after the flips

[me]
[malc]
[dwlee]
[frog]
[koba!slot]
[N_M]
[Galron]

Your argument is actually hella contradictory too now that I look at your reads! You say frogs was obviously town so I wouldn't bring him, but if I were scum and was looking for who to bring to ELO... you had frogs lower than me. You didn't even remember your own fake read

this is also bad, and I think speaks to how you're trying to narrativise this and engage without good faith

my reads have obviously changed, and I think it was p easy to predict that frog would go up in reads --> he was consistently applying pressure to NM on d2 and was the hardest pusher on D3 when the flip happened. I think that given that you were also gonna have to go for the bussing play, you didn't want to go against frog who you'd have to also argue he'd bussed too when he was looking better than you in the interactions between the two

Like why would I bring conftown instead of "nonconftown that townread me over frog"

It's -EV in two ways

And last quoted post by Frogs is Koba saying I'm ic levels of town

So for me to be scum I
1.) Didn't shoot conftown
2.) Shot a person with momentum to townread me
3.) Shot a person that was more scumread than me by the last remaining townie
4.) Didn't shoot conftown???

Like what?

in reference to these three posts:
again, your entire argument for me being scum is that I apparently would do these things? which I'm assuming is based on this being a new account, but I'm quite obviously not a new player

but yah, your entire pitch here fails to account for why I don't just shoot the conftown (when a frog/dwlee/me endgame doubles my odds of getting a vote on town and I only close down my options while still having to 1v1 there if scum so.... it's like ???? as an explanation for me either)

you're arguing that frog had momentum to TR you --> I don't think his engaging with you is the same thing as "momentum to TR", it's just part of assessing? I certainly don't think that based on his final posts you'd have had any sort of confidence that you had brought him round enough for him not to insta-vote you

and for the 3rd bit again that you'd have to be assuming my reads were unchanged and I don't think that's something you realistically think if being honest

[The Muffin Man]

Mod said I have to post content or whatever so here's a readslist

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Not that NM's read list here exactly went into detail, but I don't see why they put their teammate so high up. Also don't believe NM would jump onto the final vote of an initial bandwagon started by his teammate, personally feels a bit too obvious.

My only concern re MM is that they did push that initial bandwagon but have been largely quiet riding the game out since then without much suspicion. There's a certain convenience to that, but we'd have to be extremely unlucky statistically for my role check on MM to end up being mafia as opposed to townie.

okay i'm ngl, not sure i should mention this but:

NM would 100% hammer in any circumstance and you shouldn't be clearing me off that

also your check on me should be disregarded now that we know that NM was rb. mechanically dwlee and I are equally likely, you need to base your decision here on play

[The Muffin Man]

Like he completely sets up this interaction:
Make Koba scumread me by saying I'm not a power role -> kill koba -> try to frame me for the kill.

you don't get points for killing people who have SR you then getting out in front by saying that it's a frame job homie

[The Muffin Man]

But also, yea, muffin has been coasting off nothing for three days.

also I'm trying to get out of the multipost habit but:

this is exactly why dwlee brings me to elo. he can't easily pin down on why I'm scummy, so he's focusing on lack of activity (which if you wanna try to explain why that's scummy as opposed to NAI, go for it) and trying really hard to build a narrative of why I would choose this Elo and he wouldn't (despite the fact that all the reasons for him not choosing it apply just as much to me if not more so)

anyway, malc, is this helpful or nah? I can be around and respond to dwlee if you like, if you wanna ask me about what I was thinking at certain points in the game I can do that insofar as I remember, but like lowkey idk if any of that really makes choosing easier and I stand by the fact that highest accuracy in elo comes from looking at past days (the main reason why I'm even talking today is bc I know my content has been low and therefore I figure it might be harder to base a choice just off that)

[Andante]

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