Micro 1051 | Minimalist Micro Normal | Postgame

[Something_Smart]

Did you crumb this claim?

No. I generally don't see the need to crumb roles that don't have info.

[Wallflower]

RCE might be the way to go then

[NorwegianboyEE]

Couldn't we in theory just test the veracity of S_S's claim by limming them and if they do flip town they can venge-kill? Although it is not a given that they'd hit town in that instance.

[Something_Smart]

We still lose if I'm limmed today. If we get scum today then I can be limmed tomorrow at no cost.

[NorwegianboyEE]

Umm. So does scum win instantly if an vengeful is eliminated? Or not?

[NorwegianboyEE]

Assuming 50% control all that's needed and S_S is town.
But shouldn't vengeful activate instanteneously and take down someone "with them" essentially?

[Something_Smart]

Umm. So does scum win instantly if an vengeful is eliminated? Or not?

I believe not. So it's 3:2, if I'm executed today and kill scum it will be 2:1, then scum NK to make it 1:1 and win.

[NorwegianboyEE]

Oh right.
Wow i really didn't think that one through did i.

[Something_Smart]

Incidentally, this is also why I was playing the first few days so reserved; vengeful in a micro is powerful iff it survives to D4.

[NorwegianboyEE]

Incidentally, this is also why I was playing the first few days so reserved; vengeful in a micro is powerful iff it survives to D4.

Does that mean you have reads, but just intentionally limited yourself to stay alive?

[NorwegianboyEE]

Tbh, your reasoning actually makes a lot more sense than i expected.
And that makes this hard again. Ughhh.

[Something_Smart]

To some extent. I've been souring on RCE for a while, but I didn't want to make a big stink about it yesterday. Seeing Tracer flip town made me want to go after you purely out of respect for his reads, but you seem pretty reasonable and willing to hear things out today which is +town for sure.

Hence the need for a reread. Hopefully I will have my head straightened out afterward. I haven't ever deliberately refused to commit this game, I just have a pretty high standard of evidence that I can rarely actually meet. But in lylo, and especially as a vengeful, I will need to accept whatever level of confidence I can get. So I promise I will have real opinions. (But they will not be stripped down the way Toog wants, because that loses all the nuance.)

[Wallflower]

Yeah, RCE has to be the play today imo. I think S_S is town, and even if it is Norwe/Toogeloo, that's a loss because RCE-town lims me over Norwe right?

And I also don't actually think it's Norwe/Toogeloo

[NorwegianboyEE]

So S_S and Wall want RCE.

RCE, Toog what are your thoughts on the game?

[Wallflower]

So S_S and Wall want RCE.

to be fair to S_S, I think he wants to read more first

[Something_Smart]

I do, yes.

[Toogeloo]

Toog what are your thoughts on the game?

If you are asking if I buy the claim. I don't. Claiming Vengeful in LimLo feels almost like someone claiming Ascetic on Day 1... Convenient.

[RH]

Day 3 Count I

Not Voting

- NorwegianboyEE, RCEnigma, Something_Smart, Toogeloo, Wallflower

Notes

• My mod ISO is here.
  
• With 5 remaining, it takes 3 to form a majority.

The

Day

concludes in (expired on 2022-05-01 13:29:22).

[RCEnigma]

So S_S and Wall want RCE.

RCE, Toog what are your thoughts on the game?

I'm odd man out because I'm still on the wall!scum train. Also kinda agree with Toog here. It's a win today claim.

I'll try and go back through the game but I stand where I stand aorn.

[Something_Smart]

I did the thing

Spoiler: Notes from reread

Norwee bravado in 58 probably slightly +town. Gamma immediately jumps into defend (60), potential WK? 80 is also weird
WF votes and unvotes Tracer based on dumb alt speculation, I don't think it means anything
151 WF is weirdly missing the point of Meg's read. Probably +town?
WF basically singlehandedly starts the Gamma wagon. Two known townies jump on to make it the main wagon; I think the room being wagon-happy was pretty predictable at this point in time, and Gamma reacts pretty hostilely (193), I think that's a pretty strong point against Toog/WF.
RCE's posts on page 9 make 0 sense, I do not think this is AI
223 makes Norwee/WF less likely
227 makes RCE/WF less likely (edit: 279 too)
228 makes Norwee/RCE more likely especially given Norwee's followup
Not sure what to make of Norwee's 253, I think that could come from an RCE partner since he's diverting attention onto me.
Norwee and RCE are voting together from 251. I'll have to keep an eye on if they stay voting together, that's anti-partnery.
I believe I thought Norwee/RCE were unaligned because they wouldn't sit on the Ircher wagon together. However this is during a time when nothing is happening and there are no wagons, so I'm not sure it would be out of the question, especially since Ircher would be limbait with good reads and therefore a pretty good target for this.
Every single vote is on town in 425. I think this means scum are going to be avoiding making waves, at least at this point in time. If Toog is scum then there might be a change in urgency once they start getting wagoned, otherwise this attitude would persist through the rest of D1.
434 makes RCE/Toog more likely, that absolutely could be something to hide behind to avoid giving a read on your partner.
469 looks bad for RCE knowing that Ircher and Tracer are both town. In fact unless it's RCE/WF all of the people he mentioned here are town.
In the following posts Norwee is backing this up. Not sure if he would be this obvious as scum? But I do know Norwee to be pretty direct.
-tw claims at this point-
Norwee switches to me. WF switches to Toog. Toog claims after self-admittedly not knowing the VC. Toog/WF seems basically impossible at this point, and I would expect Norwee/Toog to be more organized than this probably?
Meanwhile Norwee is pushing a bunch of BS about me. I don't think this is super scummy, maybe a little. Plenty of people have trouble reading me.
607 608 Toog is willing to vote, like, anyone to avoid dying, mildly +scum. I'm curious to see what RCE does coming into this.
637 Norwee flips from me to Toog unprompted, huge mark against Norwee/Toog.
672 is RCE's first response to all of this, it's basically just a cop-out vote on me. Then he goes on to talk about how I'm scummier than Tracer (686), then tw puts Toog to E-1 (687), then RCE is suddenly more interested in killing Tracer (690). Tw puts Tracer to E-1 and Tracer claims, RCE doesn't get a chance to react to this before the Meg flashwagon happens.
RCE continues to push Tracer/me/WF, Toog has RCE as their top townread in 800, that read has existed for a while but I don't think it was ever really explained?
880 Norwee has RCE as firm town. Hard for me to find the reasoning for this, his ISO is big though so I might have missed something.
Norwee defends me in 883, probably +town, but I guess it could be a good-cop bad-cop thing with RCE?
Norwee votes Toog, leaving me to decide. RCE tries to start a new wagon on WF but quickly changes his mind. Toog tries to wagon

me

, RCE's favorite target all game, but he doesn't seem to be interested, and eventually goes back to Tracer. Then basically all wagons except Tracer's collapse, nothing much interesting happens until Tracer is hammered.

The notes don't do my thoughts much justice, and they're probably nigh unreadable anyway, but my ranking of likely teams goes something like: RCE/Toog as the most likely, then RCE/Norwee, then WF/Norwee. (The other three would mean some weird and unnecessary distancing.) And WF/Norwee would make today absolutely hilarious-- it would mean that I claimed and both scum were like "yeah that makes sense" and both town were suspicious of it.
Right now I think the world I most believe in is RCE/Toog who were hoping to take me out today for the win. RCE being Toog's partner would explain some of the weirdness around the wagons, because RCE was too low-activity to be able to really save Toog, but he still always found a way to be pushing for an alternative.

[NorwegianboyEE]

S_S the more i think about your claim the more i want to believe it is real.
I feel like it explains your play and it also seems very unlike you to come up with a fake claim, and have it be something unusual such as vengeful of all things.
And that's also doubly making me question the people that are doubting your claim. I feel this could come from mafia that wants to dismiss it as "of it's just to live longer, whatever" instead of seriously engaging with the implications.

[NorwegianboyEE]

Toog what are your thoughts on the game?

If you are asking if I buy the claim. I don't. Claiming Vengeful in LimLo feels almost like someone claiming Ascetic on Day 1... Convenient.

Also this is an weird thought. Why is claiming ascetic on day 1 used as an example? I think that usually comes from town so why is that the example used?

[NorwegianboyEE]

And even if we say, lim your partner in a scum!you world.
Openly claiming Vengeful makes it so that it is fully possible for us to just lim you as an safety measure in the next day and then have you use your shot the kill the remaining scum. Assuming you are indeed town.

[Something_Smart]

I think it's entirely possible that the only ones shading my claim are scum (Toog & RCE). I don't want to get overconfident... but it would be pretty satisfying if that were indeed the case.

[NorwegianboyEE]

It's like... Either a town claim, or an very good fake claim.
Do you have history with making good fake claims as scum?