Micro 1052: Lake Melancholy [END]

[VP Baltar]

It's not the right approach, imo, and leads to talking past each other. But you also could be scum and fighting a hypothetical VP is a convenient push. This is why I find the "prism-fire team callout" argument so suspicious. And then of course Suichi parrots you on it in the hood after you posted it, which I absolutely hate.

it did give me pause to see that datisi and prism both said it was a bad point and shuichi said it was a good one

i still think it's not, like, a super bad point, just not a very significant one, so at first when he agreed i was like haha yes

but then i was like hmm this could be meaningful

fire, you have any follow up thought on this now that we know prism was scum?

[VP Baltar]

Ok, that is the D1 stuff I think is relevant to a fire!scum read skitter. I suggest you also ISO him. His play is absolutely not as townie as you make it out to be.

I think the one argument for fire!town here that I would give some credence to is some of his defenses of Prism are blatant, even toward pretty late in the day when I was gone and it seemed like Prism was definitely going down. That is either a scum WAY too committed to their buddy or an oblivious town player.

[skitter30]

Ty vpb, i appreciate it! Will read through a little later

And when you have the chance, the bulletpoints fow why you're townie would be appreciated as well

[VP Baltar]

Prism [5]: VP Baltar, Dwlee99, Prism, Skitter30, Aristeia ---[FADE]
VP Baltar [2]: fireisredsir, Shuichi Saihara
fireisredsir [1]: Datisi

I could have swore Suichi voted prism before EOD yesterday, but clearly my two second glance while off was not thorough! Hmm, so like no bus yesterday? That seems like bad play and possibly indicates that one of fire/suichi really did over commit to a Prism defense.

I need to read Datisi's EOD posting as well too probably.

[VP Baltar]

scum want a prism wagon, don't fall for scum propaganda!

Yeah watch out. Fire, who has not taken any serious stance on prism, really doesn't want this lim.

^lol if fire is scum. EGOVPCOMINGTHROUGH

[VP Baltar]

Bullet points on why I'm town:

- I started the game behaving like lout who crashes the party, smashing things up and making noise. This led to probably predictable heat on me, but I think I'm much more likely to not care about heat on me when I'm town because I know it is not accurate pressuring. I know you hated me coming after you early skitt, but I was acting on my instincts there and it had the potential to pay off had you been scum.
- I've been very transparent about all my reasoning for my actions in this game, even the ones where people don't immediately understand why I'm taking a certain position. A good example of this is my Datisi townread progression. I have all the receipts for why my gut reacts the way it does, and in fairly granular detail. This isn't really a trait of my scum game, imo.
- My play around Prism is not scum indicative. I openly encouraged people to make the lim me or her yesterday. If I'm scum in that scenario, I think I closed the door on someone else being the lim way earlier than would be necessary. The way it played out is dwlee placed the first vote down, and then I quickly followed up an encouraged the Prism wagon. Prism then continued her inexplicable flip of a read on me and OMGUSes me, saying she thinks it should be me or her. To which, I said, cool!

I'm fine going between Baltar/me

same

I think Prism was trying to scare me off or something. Like who would want to 1v1 Prism. Well I'm a moron! Good LUCK.

I then camped my vote on there, even when I went VLA. There's just little about that suggests I was worried about surviving or about Prism not dying. A lot of time passed after that vote where I could have done anything else but have my vote there.

-Last reason I think I should be town read is that my reads have clearly changed over the course of the game, and appear to be sharp, especially my town reads. Let's not forget that if I was scum, I could have kept hammering your own wagon when it was large D1 and tried to power that through as Prism was trying to do. Instead, I said something smelled bad about it since it was so universally popular and I think my defecting played a significant role in its defusal.

[fireisredsir]

i don't have a lot of mental energy to play mafia rn (or to do anything!), and i also don't think its really useful to anyone to like go back and forth point by point on what vp has said cause let's be honest nobody is gonna want to read that

but a few things worth responding to:

1) 2536 - no? i didn't read your post as an attack on prism at all so how can it be a defense. your post felt like the opposite, like you were mediating and trying to calm down a TvT to get on the good side of the people in it, in a way that felt scummy (i think its how you used the word "we"). i was calling you out for that. ofc now i know it wasn't a TvT so the original point is wrong but still

2) 2540 - we're not getting into this again but the whole point was that i wanted to see if you would call out that post and you didn't. i thought it was scummy for you not to. so... just, no.

3) 2541 - makes no sense. i could see a valid argument for saying that it was TMI if prism flipped town. but she didn't. my point was that i thought a prism-fire team should clearly make no sense to anyone reading the thread. and that's why you didn't want to bring it up as a possibility even though it was clearly what your solve was, because then you'd have to defend it when it's like not viable at all. i do accept that i do have TMI of me being town and maybe that is biasing me to make me think it should look more impossible than it is. but man i would just have to be like completely ignoring any of prism's advice to play like that d1 as her partner. a lot of this point did actually depend on prism being town bc i thought she would call you out for it if she was. so since she's not, it doesn't really have any weight anymore

4) 2550 - uhhh, yes, ofc? that is one of the things that made me hesitant on shuichi and he obv looks a lot worse on that point after a prism scumflip

[Dwlee99]

I just want cephrir dead pls

[fireisredsir]

also despite the bad points made i do like that you actually finally put your effort into hunting and casing who you think is scum

and i think your self towncase is actually somewhat good

so idk

[fireisredsir]

I just want cephrir dead pls

yea ok probably

my biggest concern with it is that i think it would have been extremely short sighted d1 play for that scumteam. and prism clearly knew she was likely to get flipped early on, if not d1 then d2. i find it kinda hard to believe that they just set themselves up to just lose as soon as she flips?? but maybe im overthinking things, idk

[Dwlee99]

You can't just full bus your teammate in a micro D1 even if the consequences are bad imo. If she avoids lim D1, Cephrir has time to pivot D2

[fireisredsir]

tru i did think of something along those lines, ig i could buy that they were going all in on trying to get a skitter or vp flip and delaying the prism flip to d2, which allows ceph to position better

but then prism kind of was the one to push her own lim through at the time that it happened, even when vp was probably still possible. that was what made me think it still could be vp bc at the time when prism flipped, the gamestate was such that ceph looks way worse than vp. so it felt kind of like a "ok the gamestate is where i want it to be now, so lock it in before it changes again". and that makes no sense with ceph scum cause he's in an awful position

but then maybe its all mindgames ahhhh

[fireisredsir]

or maybe they had just accepted the game as lost at that point, idk. doesn't feel super likely, but possible

[fireisredsir]

ok i looked at how the day ended since i was just going off memory and hadn't really wanted to look at it again.

starting point:

Prism [3]:

VP Baltar, Aristeia, Dwlee99

VP Baltar [2]:

fireisredsir, Prism,

Dwlee99 [1]:

Enchant,

fireisredsir [1]:

Datisi

Not Voting [2]:

Shuichi Saihara, Skitter30

With

9

alive, it takes

5

to

fade

.

enchant votes VP in 2178. prism is shocked and confused. suddenly a VP elim seems possible. shuichi and skitter both want to vote there but haven't yet.

shuichi puts vp at e-1 in 2205. enchant immediately unvotes. skitter is present, asks if we're ready to end the day (implication being with a vp elim).

ari zeroes in on ceph/prism as the team and spends most of the next page talking about that team. prism says she wants the day to end and votes draw. dwlee and ari are begging for prism votes.

in 2253 skitter gives in and says she'll vote prism. prism immediately takes that, says she wants out, and selfvotes. day is essentially over now.



this is why i felt like the day end was intentionally timed by prism. it was a fast turnaround, from being so close to a VP flip to instead pushing herself through. i had the timeline slightly wrong in my memory, though. i thought prism turned once the vp elim looked suddenly most likely, and so she was protecting her partner, knowing that her flip was much better for their chances. but thats not quite right, she did seem to want the day to end and voted draw at that point, but she didn't fully turn until after skitter switched to being willing to vote her.

maybe they did overcommit to VP, and then once skitter turned and ari was convinced on ceph as partner it was just over? thats the simple answer, i guess. idk. i still kinda feel like ceph was set up to fall here, but the fact that prisms actions seem to indicate more of an actual willingness to flip vp than i thought makes me hesitant there too.

[fireisredsir]

enchant's vote vp and then unvote is kinda strange but im not sure if i can follow the scum narrative there

enchant trying to save prism, prism yells at enchant in the PT to let her die and not look too obvious in voting VP bc town will prob just chain lim the hood after the prism flip and enchant can just coast? maybe that is possible??

[Shuichi Saihara]

That seems like bad play and possibly indicates that one of fire/suichi really did over commit to a Prism defense.

didn't defend her either... idk how you can be so confident im scum without reading any of my posts. kinda feels like you're just happy to push on what everyone else wants to give u

[Shuichi Saihara]

I just want cephrir dead pls

im glad we are on the same page

[skitter30]

shuichi puts vp at e-1 in 2205. enchant immediately unvotes. skitter is present, asks if we're ready to end the day (implication being with a vp elim).

fwiw i actually was planning on voting prism here, and didn't mean to imply vp, but with this context, eod is certainly interesting

[skitter30]

I then camped my vote on there, even when I went VLA. There's just little about that suggests I was worried about surviving or about Prism not dying. A lot of time passed after that vote where I could have done anything else but have my vote there.

-Last reason I think I should be town read is that my reads have clearly changed over the course of the game, and appear to be sharp, especially my town reads. Let's not forget that if I was scum, I could have kept hammering your own wagon when it was large D1 and tried to power that through as Prism was trying to do. Instead, I said something smelled bad about it since it was so universally popular and I think my defecting played a significant role in its defusal.

i think that both of these points have some amt of merit (although tbf i cn imagine p easily scum reasons for behaving in these as well ...)

thanks for writing out these thoughts. briefly for fire i think you're presenting them in an uncharitable light tbh, by taking the worst possible explanation for a lot of their posts.
i'm going to write up a summary for why i think he's townie now

[skitter30]

ceph, uh, why do you want to get flipped again?

[VP Baltar]

That seems like bad play and possibly indicates that one of fire/suichi really did over commit to a Prism defense.

didn't defend her either... idk how you can be so confident im scum without reading any of my posts. kinda feels like you're just happy to push on what everyone else wants to give u

I'm still reading the game. I've tried to engage with you several times. Which of your posts would you like me to look at?

[skitter30]

fire: an analysis

1. i feel like his reads are nuanced with good trajectory, and aren't necessarily reads that scum would take at that time:

1.a. read on me - lowkey sus of me for most of day1, culminating in a vote on me in 1005, with ceph voting me independantly a couple of posts down. i react to pressure etc etc etc, and fire thinks i'm townie for it. he starts indictaing he no longer wants to vote, that i'm no longer his preferred flip, etc, eventually switching to a vpb vote in 1128. i'm not sure why scum-him backs off here in favor of vpb; i was under a fair amt of suspicion at the time (with three votes + prism threatening to vote) and there's no particularly reason why a vpb vote would be more advantageous for scum-him than staying on me at that time. this makes me think he genuinely was re-evaluating me and trying to determine my alignment

1.b. around the same time, his townread on ceph grew super strong, primarily for independantly coming to the same conclusion r.e. scum-me at the exact same time (they both posted cases within minutes of each other). i think that this is a townie thought process: it's townie to think that 'someone who's approaching the game similar to me' is town (1158)

2. generally making good observations indcating that he's thinking about the game / what other people are posting and what that implies about their alignments: 504, 1251/1256, 1431, 1558, 1881 / 1894 (this one's really townie: re-evaling on vpb upon learning about the existance of the hood and how that might shed light on his dats read etc given that he prior had problems with vpb's lack of explanation for his dats read despite having him as relatively strong town)

3. trying to understand other's pov, example: 1066, 1222 (while he scumreads you even!)

4. actually seems to care about the questeions he's asking; following up on people's responses and bugging people if they don't answer him: 1680

~
i will agree that his lack of a firm stance on prism for a lot of the day isn't *great*, but i also don't inherently think it's scummy - prism is a good player and i can see people getting fooled (:blushes:)

also: ari thought he was town

[Shuichi Saihara]

ceph, uh, why do you want to get flipped again?

just kinda not having fun i guess. i want to get out of games and take a break from mafia

[Shuichi Saihara]

That seems like bad play and possibly indicates that one of fire/suichi really did over commit to a Prism defense.

didn't defend her either... idk how you can be so confident im scum without reading any of my posts. kinda feels like you're just happy to push on what everyone else wants to give u

I'm still reading the game. I've tried to engage with you several times. Which of your posts would you like me to look at?

just don't enjoy having my actions misstated

you can attack what i actually did all u want & unless i gain a surge of motivation you'll probably succeed

[Shuichi Saihara]

vp is spending hood time preemptively explaining why he will be keeping datisi in the lim pool indefinitely btw