Open 859 - C9++ - Postgame

[Alianna]

3.07

Votecount 3.07

Gamma Emerald (2): BlueBloodedToffee, Lucian
Cat Scratch Fever (2): Infinity 324, Klick
Lucian (1): Gamma Emerald
Infinity 324 (1): Aisa

Not Voting (2): Hiraki, Cat Scratch Fever

With 8 players alive, it takes 5 votes to secure an elimination and 4 to secure a no-elimination.

The day deadline is in (expired on 2022-08-07 09:55:49).

[Cat Scratch Fever]

If we don't hit SK, Mafia has to shoot in our elim pool for the SK, and SK has to either shoot between the doctor and scum, or risk their kill not going through on conftown.

Doctors only stop 1 kill, are you accounting for that? There's no incentive for Mafia to shoot in elim pool when they and sk can just force any kill through.

The kill target is just going to be whoever Aisa is supposed to heal.

Doesn't that also make the SK and mafia pool very obvious and limits their choices?

Unless I'm missing something, i don't think so? Let's say they both shot hiraki, infinity can have pulled the trigger on one and the sk do the other. I don't think it actually helps narrow it down

[Cat Scratch Fever]

It does limit their choices, but this plan isn't very effective at protecting conf towns, which is what it's being billed as

[Cat Scratch Fever]

If we don't hit SK, Mafia has to shoot in our elim pool for the SK, and SK has to either shoot between the doctor and scum, or risk their kill not going through on conftown.

Doctors only stop 1 kill, are you accounting for that? There's no incentive for Mafia to shoot in elim pool when they and sk can just force any kill through.

The kill target is just going to be whoever Aisa is supposed to heal.

VOTE: CSF

Why are you voting for me for this post?

Also we would've just limmed a VT claim

[Hiraki]

It does limit their choices, but this plan isn't very effective at protecting conf towns, which is what it's being billed as

???????????????????????????????????????

[Hiraki]

They already said that they're not revealing who they protect - which is the correct action. So either town gets another mis-elim and mafia/SK gambles on an already losing hand (both factions down to one on Day 3) or mafia/SK doesn't do that and has to shoot doctors. They could even shoot one doctor (assuming both are real) by way of not knowing which one will hit which one and then the other becomes very obvious in D5 because they're not dead.

Klick & I are not the important confirmed townies right now.

[Hiraki]

I like a Gamma elim over Lucian. I see the cracks in Lucian's play though so I'm not doubting it. I just think that slot has more than enough good points behind it first.

[Cat Scratch Fever]

Oh i see we're trying to protect the doctor. All right i think i get it although I'm not particularly convinced but with 18 hours left, time is probably better spent arguing about other things

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Can we elim Gamma now?

[Cat Scratch Fever]

I think furtive was slightly more likely to be killed by sk than Mafia

I don't think sk!gamma shoots furtive after pushing him for days 1 and 2

Maybe

I'm not married to this but open to talking about it

[BlueBloodedToffee]

If Gamma thinks Furtive is scum then killing him makes sense, no?

[Cat Scratch Fever]

After a day 1 scum lim?

I kind of don't think sk would try to shoot Mafia N2, they probably still want to hit town, since town was still ahead i think

[Cat Scratch Fever]

Idk this is a lot of guessing but sk hunting this game just feels like a lot of guessing

[BlueBloodedToffee]

I gave reasons for how Gamma could be scum from his play, too.

[Infinity 324]

the thing is that's literally how gamma plays as town

[Lucian]

This feels like his main concern is avoiding a Doc loop

I'm sorry, what. Unless your argument is that I'm Mafia, I don't even

know

whether we have a Doc loop right now. (Fun fact, it's likely we don't, because 2.7% is not very likely.)

If your argument is that I am Mafia... Then me being stuck in final 3 with Infinity and Aisa would be a wet dream. It is very likely the paranoia would set in and they'd vote each other. 90+% chance one of them is scum. I'd jump on the idea of a Doc loop here.

[Lucian]

VOTE: csf

despite our immediate reaction to the cc, i think aisa is probably town.

2.7% isn't really the probability of having 2 doctors, since the only other option is a specific setup

. it's still unlikely, but probably the world we live in.

This doesn't matter right now, but for future reference I'm pretty sure Lucian's calculations already take into account the fact there are only two possible setups (or only a few possible setups).

I ran my own calculations assuming that DDDDMVT and DDMVTTT are the only possible setups and got a 1.96% probability of DDDDMVT and 98.04% of DDMVTTT.

For the record, what I did is: knowing that we must live in DDMVxxx, I looked to find what the odds are of the xxx being DDx.

The letter D is given for numbers 66-75. Considering the numbers are randed 1-100, that means there's a 10% chance for any one letter to be a D. There are three letters being "randed" here, and exactly two have to be D.

Punch all of that into a binominal probability calculator, the result is 0.027.

[Hiraki]

Oh i see we're trying to protect the doctor. All right i think i get it although I'm not particularly convinced but with 18 hours left, time is probably better spent arguing about other things

No - not really. If both doctors die tonight, that would be a success.

[Hiraki]

the thing is that's literally how gamma plays as town

This is partially why I think Gamma is best for today.

[Hiraki]

Vote: Gamma

[Lucian]

Wait, I'm dumb. The final letter cannot be M (because then we'd have Masons instead of an IC). Can't be V anyway since then Klick wouldn't be hunting for an SK. And assuming no Town Power is currently fakeclaiming...

It's even lower than 2.7%. Lemme see if I can remember my highschool math classes.

[Hiraki]

Yeah, I was thinking 2.7% was too high for this scenario. I'd still like to play under those pretenses for today though. I'd like to think the factors in this game actually lead towards the rational probability of two doctors and a one-shot doc to be much higher.

[Lucian]

I got 1.5% now for the odds of DDT being the final three letters, BUT. That's assuming all other worlds are equally likely, and we know we can't live in a few of those worlds. (Mxx, for example.)

Okay, I give up. Will leave this as an exercise for myself for later, as I don't think the exact number is too important right now.

[Alianna]

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[Alianna]

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