Micro 1061: If Trees Could Scream [Game Over]

[Don Draper x Mistress]

Guys stop voting please until everyone acknowleges this.

We likely have a firefighter with two clears. There are five alive.

We wagon someone. If no one vouches, we lim them.

Then we get to tomorrow. Arsonist can't have killed.

So gg?

That’s exactly what Enchant is saying too I think. What do you mean “vouches”?

Glad you finally showed up. Could have used your help yesterday but oh well. Herta probably won’t show up unfortunately. :/

[Don Draper x Mistress]

Ignition!

furtiveglance was burned last Night. They were...

Spoiler:

a

Firefighter

.

SCRRRDBEAR was burned last Night. They were a

Tree-stump

.

They are no longer allowed to post in thread.

Day 5

Day 5 starts now and ends in (expired on 2022-11-02 19:15:00). With 4 alive, it takes 3 to axe someone.

@Titus, furtive already flipped ff.

[Titus]

Nevermind. This is 11 hour day. Carry on.

[Don Draper x Mistress]

Nevermind. This is 11 hour day. Carry on.

:/

Do you have no thoughts on who Porkens’ buddy is?

@Vanders I think I would like to see that scumgame and I want @Ircher to explain that WIFOM thing.

[Don Draper x Mistress]

@Scrrdbear I would really like your take.

[Vanderscamp]

... Eh. I can bet Don Draper was protected from death.

Ircher? lol, no.
Me? lol!
Vander? Did furtive even townread you? I don't remember.

Pretty sure he did, he made a comment during the CC day where he omitted me from the list of Porkens' possible partners, which I thought was kind of strange at the time since I was arguing to not kill Porkens.

Not that it makes me think I was a lock to get saved or anything, but hopefully it helps prove that me igniting last night is not a thing. I already think it's pretty awful but it's not like I would have been afraid of either furtive or bears' reads.
And if it helps, I've played this set as scum before on a different site, I can link the scum chat if anyone wants.

Maybe you should? I think it’s probably Ircher because he was so sure Scrrdbear was FF but Idk.

Can you access this?
https://cassandrawerewolf.com/game/2498153/chat
You might need to sign in to read it, the game is here:
https://boardgamegeek.com/thread/2498153/forest-fire


In case you can't read it, helpfully, the very first thing I said in the chat was this:
lendunistus Nov 24, 06:04 AM: Hello! You may chat with your teammate here.
lendunistus Nov 24, 06:04 AM: If you have any questions, feel free to ask them here or in your mod chat!
WerewolfHunter Nov 24, 09:46 AM: hello
Vanderscamp Nov 24, 03:07 PM: Yay!
Vanderscamp Nov 24, 03:07 PM: im excited
Vanderscamp Nov 24, 03:07 PM: lets crush
Vanderscamp Nov 24, 03:07 PM: Firstly it seems good to never use the ignite until the last moment
Vanderscamp Nov 24, 03:08 PM: And win there

[Vanderscamp]

Is Ircher vs me actually a decision for you or are you just interested in Enchant's thoughts?

Both. All of you locktown me and 2 of you think it’s not Enchant, so yeah his reads are important here.

I think it's Ircher more than thinking it's not Enchant, I don't know who of the two of you I would vote for (probably Enchant) because I think you're both quite towny, but if Ircher doesn't end the game it isn't automatic

[Vanderscamp]

Nevermind. This is 11 hour day. Carry on.

Are you on the right thread?

[Vanderscamp]

@Scrrdbear I would really like your take.

BEAR was ignited!

[Don Draper x Mistress]

Ignition!

furtiveglance was burned last Night. They were...

Spoiler:

a

Firefighter

.

SCRRRDBEAR was burned last Night. They were a

Tree-stump

.

They are no longer allowed to post in

Day 5

Day 5 starts now and ends in (expired on 2022-11-02 19:15:00). With 4 alive, it takes 3 to axe someone.

Oh right, yeah makes me think Ircher because Ircher thought he was ff not furtive.

[Vanderscamp]

Also, I'll talk about the NK, which will hopefully make it more clear that I haven't done it.

I haven't actually worked this out yet, so there's some chance I prove myself wrong while writing this post, but it seems really obvious that scum should never intentionally set themselves up to ignite twice.



Last night is five alive, with one douse that scum knows was successful, one douse that scum knows is useless (stumpBEAR) and one mystery douse that could go either way.

If scum ignites last night, best case scenario two people die and it's a final three where scum needs one miskill.
Worst case scenario (what happened) the mystery douse was protected and it's a final four where scum need two miskills.


If scum douse last night, worst case scenario, furtive gets a save.
After one miskill, it's four alive, and after a douse, either it goes down to two alive for a scum win if the mystery douse was successful, or three alive for a final three if it wasn't, in which case scum needed two miskills total.


So even in this worse case scenario of dousing last night, even if scum somehow knew for a fact that furtive would 100% get a save, this is still no worse than just dousing last night anyway, and it's actually even mechanically better (assuming furtive's reads aren't super intimidating) because there's a wider pool that town has to select from.
And if furtive ever doesn't get a save, then it's just a win after one miskill even if the mystery douse didn't work.


So yeah, I would not do this.
I might do this if I somehow thought it was a good play, and then I might lie about thinking it was a bad play, but I don't know how I would ever think it wasn't a bad play.
And the fact that Enchant had the same logic makes me want to kill him much less than the people who don't. Like, if Ircher had come in and said "wow that's a really bad kill and I'll explain why," I would have loved that from him, but he didn't happen, probably because he is scum and made the kill.

[Don Draper x Mistress]

... Eh. I can bet Don Draper was protected from death.

Ircher? lol, no.
Me? lol!
Vander? Did furtive even townread you? I don't remember.

Pretty sure he did, he made a comment during the CC day where he omitted me from the list of Porkens' possible partners, which I thought was kind of strange at the time since I was arguing to not kill Porkens.

Not that it makes me think I was a lock to get saved or anything, but hopefully it helps prove that me igniting last night is not a thing. I already think it's pretty awful but it's not like I would have been afraid of either furtive or bears' reads.
And if it helps, I've played this set as scum before on a different site, I can link the scum chat if anyone wants.

Maybe you should? I think it’s probably Ircher because he was so sure Scrrdbear was FF but Idk.

Can you access this?
https://cassandrawerewolf.com/game/2498153/chat
You might need to sign in to read it, the game is here:
https://boardgamegeek.com/thread/2498153/forest-fire


In case you can't read it, helpfully, the very first thing I said in the chat was this:
lendunistus Nov 24, 06:04 AM: Hello! You may chat with your teammate here.
lendunistus Nov 24, 06:04 AM: If you have any questions, feel free to ask them here or in your mod chat!
WerewolfHunter Nov 24, 09:46 AM: hello
Vanderscamp Nov 24, 03:07 PM: Yay!
Vanderscamp Nov 24, 03:07 PM: im excited
Vanderscamp Nov 24, 03:07 PM: lets crush
Vanderscamp Nov 24, 03:07 PM: Firstly it seems good to never use the ignite until the last moment
Vanderscamp Nov 24, 03:08 PM: And win there

Treestumps cannot be doused

and Treestumps cannot vote.

Mech was a bit different in that game.

[Vanderscamp]

Oh, caveat to that, there's a world where the village miskills the hypothetical douse target from last night.
Then it goes to four alive, and scum can choose to ignite then, and then it still just depends on whether the mystery douse was successful on whether it's a scum win or a final three.
So this scenario is still no worse than igniting at 5, and again, it's mechanically better because of the wider pool.

[Vanderscamp]

... Eh. I can bet Don Draper was protected from death.

Ircher? lol, no.
Me? lol!
Vander? Did furtive even townread you? I don't remember.

Pretty sure he did, he made a comment during the CC day where he omitted me from the list of Porkens' possible partners, which I thought was kind of strange at the time since I was arguing to not kill Porkens.

Not that it makes me think I was a lock to get saved or anything, but hopefully it helps prove that me igniting last night is not a thing. I already think it's pretty awful but it's not like I would have been afraid of either furtive or bears' reads.
And if it helps, I've played this set as scum before on a different site, I can link the scum chat if anyone wants.

Maybe you should? I think it’s probably Ircher because he was so sure Scrrdbear was FF but Idk.

Can you access this?
https://cassandrawerewolf.com/game/2498153/chat
You might need to sign in to read it, the game is here:
https://boardgamegeek.com/thread/2498153/forest-fire


In case you can't read it, helpfully, the very first thing I said in the chat was this:
lendunistus Nov 24, 06:04 AM: Hello! You may chat with your teammate here.
lendunistus Nov 24, 06:04 AM: If you have any questions, feel free to ask them here or in your mod chat!
WerewolfHunter Nov 24, 09:46 AM: hello
Vanderscamp Nov 24, 03:07 PM: Yay!
Vanderscamp Nov 24, 03:07 PM: im excited
Vanderscamp Nov 24, 03:07 PM: lets crush
Vanderscamp Nov 24, 03:07 PM: Firstly it seems good to never use the ignite until the last moment
Vanderscamp Nov 24, 03:08 PM: And win there

Treestumps cannot be doused

and Treestumps cannot vote.

Mech was a bit different in that game.

Not really?
Why would you ever douse a treestump?

[Vanderscamp]

Like, the parity rules with tree stumps are the same, right?
Once they get daykilled they don't do anything

[Vanderscamp]

FWIW I just had a thought, the fact that you yesterday said that you weren't considering Ircher as part of your POE makes me think that you weren't doused and Ircher wanted you alive in that final three, which makes me think I was probably the save.

This isn't a relevant argument from a current gamestate perspective, but if I'm right I want postgame cred for it.

[Vanderscamp]

Either that or I'm heinously wrong on Ircher and Enchant thought he could set up a sick final three with Enchant/me/Ircher, this is at least possible. I don't think it's very likely that Enchant was the save, so it's hard for me to see a world with scumDon thinking that getting rid of me that night would be better than letting me stay alive, keep tunneling on Ircher, and maybe get some heat (unless he just wasn't thinking about the NK at all) so it makes me feel even better about Don not being scum.

[Vanderscamp]

It’s not Vanders. It’s possible I’m being pocketed.

Why did you say this if you think it's between Ircher and me btw?

[Don Draper x Mistress]

... Eh. I can bet Don Draper was protected from death.

Ircher? lol, no.
Me? lol!
Vander? Did furtive even townread you? I don't remember.

Pretty sure he did, he made a comment during the CC day where he omitted me from the list of Porkens' possible partners, which I thought was kind of strange at the time since I was arguing to not kill Porkens.

Not that it makes me think I was a lock to get saved or anything, but hopefully it helps prove that me igniting last night is not a thing. I already think it's pretty awful but it's not like I would have been afraid of either furtive or bears' reads.
And if it helps, I've played this set as scum before on a different site, I can link the scum chat if anyone wants.

Maybe you should? I think it’s probably Ircher because he was so sure Scrrdbear was FF but Idk.

Can you access this?
https://cassandrawerewolf.com/game/2498153/chat
You might need to sign in to read it, the game is here:
https://boardgamegeek.com/thread/2498153/forest-fire


In case you can't read it, helpfully, the very first thing I said in the chat was this:
lendunistus Nov 24, 06:04 AM: Hello! You may chat with your teammate here.
lendunistus Nov 24, 06:04 AM: If you have any questions, feel free to ask them here or in your mod chat!
WerewolfHunter Nov 24, 09:46 AM: hello
Vanderscamp Nov 24, 03:07 PM: Yay!
Vanderscamp Nov 24, 03:07 PM: im excited
Vanderscamp Nov 24, 03:07 PM: lets crush
Vanderscamp Nov 24, 03:07 PM: Firstly it seems good to never use the ignite until the last moment
Vanderscamp Nov 24, 03:08 PM: And win there

Treestumps cannot be doused

and Treestumps cannot vote.

Mech was a bit different in that game.

Not really?
Why would you ever douse a treestump?

That would be dumb unless their reads were spot on I guess.

I should probably read some of your MS scumgames but Ircher saying you did it for WIFOM sounds whack to me. I maintain that if town, Ircher was a viable douse, so I think burn last night especially Sccrdbear looks bad for Ircher.

[Don Draper x Mistress]

FWIW I just had a thought, the fact that you yesterday said that you weren't considering Ircher as part of your POE makes me think that you weren't doused and Ircher wanted you alive in that final three, which makes me think I was probably the save.

This isn't a relevant argument from a current gamestate perspective, but if I'm right I want postgame cred for it.

Idk, it’s possible I guess? But I’m not miselimable but then he’s locktowned me, so maybe?

[Don Draper x Mistress]

Like, what has Ircher actually done that is town, except for presumably bussing Porkens?

I think both Don and Enchant have both clearly at least made an effort, and while I disagree with a lot of what they've had to say, they've at least showed reasonable thought processes and have given passion.

Ircher has not done anything resembling that for the entire game, and him refusing to talk about his reads or his progression of his reads is a massive massive red flag for me.

That was before both of you took Enchant out of consideration.

[Don Draper x Mistress]

I lean to it most likely being Ircher. However, why couldn’t Enchant have been doused? Pretty much everyone and their uncle - except Porkens and Bear were tr him.

[Don Draper x Mistress]

Actually that’s wrong. I wouldn’t be happy to eliminate anyone. I have preferences of who I’d like to eliminate but they aren’t based on town/scum reads.

Like: Don Draper x Mistress (hydra of Nancy Drew 39 and Auro)
Love: Porkens
Wary: furtiveglance
Impatient: Herta

Enchanted: Vanderscamp

Wary: Ircher
Like: Titus
Wary: Enchant
Tempted: SCRRRDBEAR

I wonder if the bolded means anything? Could that possibly be a slip that I wasn’t doused? But then furtive for sure protected me and probably Enchant as well because both of us were his top two trs.

So yeah, there have been 3 nights of dousing so far and one night of ignition. Scrrdbear and furtive were two, so Idk why furtive would protect you over both me and Enchant?

Like I don’t see how that makes sense, Furtive either protected me or Enchant because we’re his top two townreads.

[Don Draper x Mistress]

Actually nm, he had 4 shots so last one could have been you I guess.

Mech makes me head hurt, Will think on this some more.

[Enchant]

I have insomnia

Did you ask something j readings