House of the Dragon Spec Chat

Lukewarm · Post Post #900 (ISO) » Mon Dec 19, 2022 6:13 pm

In post 890, mastina wrote:{snip}

I get that losing Datisi there was frustrating, but I fundamentally disagree with most of what you are saying here.

I think that there was solid reason to think that Datisi could be scum, enough that he was still in the PoE for a lot of players. If everyone town read Datisi, I think that they would have been disinclined to actually kill him there. But a lot of people had him in a scum lean to null range, and therefore were open to the option of this plan (Also, Enchant very explicitly scum read Datisi, so your note about him is not accurate at all)

Also, comparing it to a vig yolo shooting a cop claim is disingenuous, because the town KNEW that they were not going to lose the cop PR either way.

The

worst case scenario

was not very bad at all for the town.

Yes, you did a miselim, but in doing so you move the cop PR from "slot that is in the POE" to a "slot that is confirmed town" -- while also confirming all of their prior results.

You lose ZERO cop results in this scenario, because the new cop can fire the same night after you kill the current cop, and the protectives can skill keep the new cop safe. --- This is a huge factor in this game that is absent in your yolo vig comparison.

The worst case scenario was not punishing to town, and therefore the risk-reward was skewd towards the kill making tactical sense.

ISO · Post Post #901 (ISO) » Mon Dec 19, 2022 6:14 pm

In post 894, MathBlade wrote:I will miss you Mastina. Please say hi when you feel it healthy. <3

Again, not leaving.

But I need to quit playing games as mastina. They're just becoming too destructive.

ISO · Post Post #902 (ISO) » Mon Dec 19, 2022 6:17 pm

In post 899, mastina wrote:
In post 897, RH9 wrote:By the way, could scum actually shoot at themselves?
Yup, they could!

That's so cool.
I haven't played in a game where scum could shoot self since my first IRL Mafia game in 2019.

Lukewarm · Post Post #903 (ISO) » Mon Dec 19, 2022 6:19 pm

In post 890, mastina wrote:Enchant didn't (he just did what Enchant does).

Like, I know he was not out casing him, but Enchant was scum reading Datisi specifically for a lot of this game.

Spoiler:

ISO · Post Post #904 (ISO) » Mon Dec 19, 2022 6:29 pm

In post 900, Lukewarm wrote:Also, comparing it to a vig yolo shooting a cop claim is disingenuous, because the town KNEW that they were not going to lose the cop PR either way.
Yes, you did a miselim, but in doing so you move the cop PR from "slot that is in the POE" to a "slot that is confirmed town" -- while also confirming all of their prior results.
You lose ZERO cop results in this scenario, because the new cop can fire the same night after you kill the current cop, and the protectives can skill keep the new cop safe. --- This is a huge factor in this game that is absent in your yolo vig comparison.
The worst case scenario was not punishing to town, and therefore the risk-reward was skewd towards the kill making tactical sense.

What makes this any extra true after three investigations rather than one, or two?

Prior days had it be discussed as being done on a day phase prior to lylo. With 9 alive that'd be a time to eliminate Datisi, or even 11 alive. But with 13 alive, what makes that any different than 15 alive, or 17 alive? Yet the argument was absent at 17 and absent at 15 because there was no reason to eliminate Datisi on those days.

And there was no reason to eliminate Datisi at 13p.

9p makes sense, it's the default.
11p makes sense if you're concerned about scum having an endgame mechanism. (Which we did.)
But 13p made no sense because it was akin to saying to kill the cop after the cop has gotten one result and only one.

I'd not have had objections to the argument at 11p because it'd have made sense. But at 13p it was arguing for the death of a slot that had just gotten good reason to not be scum. A scum-Datisi would have no reason to bring the game up to 13p by deliberately no-killing, since the scum could have killed anyone aside from the two slots protected.

Moving the cop to a conftown did carry risks, because of the mechanics involved in both coin and in council positions. Leaving Datisi opened freed up having more coins available, or to try and stop scum kills. Making conftown the cop

mandated

having both the cop and doc have coin (keeping in mind that there were only 2.2k at the time, that meant that there was only one or two nights' worth of gold left without conserving altho I don't know how much was being made), and having the council roles consolidated opened up the scum to killing on the council and creating a non-conftown to be placed on a previously-all-town council.

The cop moving onto, say, Titus, would leave fireisredsir as the only council member without two power roles. And if the council was all town, then the kingsguard would certainly not be all-town, making an overthrow easier. Overthrow the king + kill on the council + consolidated power roles = the new King needs to distribute roles to players who aren't all conftown. Which would open up a scum wincon where one previously was unavailable.

To explain the exact nature of this I'd need to know the exact mechanics behind the king selection (which I don't obv), but I don't see how this is hard to grasp, since the math checks out. If scum weren't on the council, then mislimming a council member + consolidating their members + kill a council member = scum overthrow the king and the new king can't select exclusively conftown anymore. (Especially if, say, the scum killed the prince while overthrowing the king.)

fireisredsir · Post Post #905 (ISO) » Mon Dec 19, 2022 6:44 pm

In post 886, mastina wrote:We expected the failed nightkill on the tracker to give the entire council locktown status when it came to light.

And then somehow it was the opposite, where the people off the council were pushing exclusively members of the council after a failed nightkill that by all rights should have spewed them all as town.

and believing this was the mistake. you're wrong on this, sorry. the no-kill does not spew everyone on the council as town. it makes it more likely, except for in the event of scum pulling a gambit. and town had plenty of reason to suspect that scum was pulling a gambit.

i know that you were the one making the decisions behind the scenes. that's why datisi's actions were clearly not his own, and that is what outed him and the whole team, from my perspective at least. i made exactly that point in the non-supporter pt.

i think it was a really cool mechanical play to try to pull off and i definitely respect that you went for it. but you are still suffering from TMI. you know exactly what the scum team powers were, and what the variables were, and what the conditions for victory were. you're still making the argument that town shouldn't have thought the way they did, without understanding what the town perspective there would have been

the most important point that you're ignoring though is that even if datisi was town, town was in a position that was incredibly difficult to lose, and not even significantly worse than where we were before. going from unknown cop (that we will have to eliminate anyway) to town confirmed cop. the only thing we lose is a little bit in the way of council positions, and town!datisi's voice. it was objectively the correct play for town to make to mitigate any possible risk because there was little to no cost, and potentially a huge (game-saving) gain

i do also happen to think that you had a better chance of winning if you hadn't gone for it, based on the strengths you had as a team, but i don't think that discussion is really worth having. it was a high risk play, you went for it, it made a game that at times was kinda unideal into a day phase that ended up being really exciting and gamechanging, and it almost worked. you can be proud of that without rejecting the truth of the situation and downplaying the legitimately good counterplay that town pulled off

ISO · Post Post #906 (ISO) » Mon Dec 19, 2022 6:46 pm

In post 904, mastina wrote:To explain the exact nature of this I'd need to know the exact mechanics behind the king selection (which I don't obv), but I don't see how this is hard to grasp, since the math checks out. If scum weren't on the council, then mislimming a council member + consolidating their members + kill a council member = scum overthrow the king and the new king can't select exclusively conftown anymore. (Especially if, say, the scum killed the prince while overthrowing the king.)

Basically.

If the council was all-town, and Datisi was eliminated, the cop moves to Titus.

The council can't be on the Kingsguard, and with the council being Shea+mastina+Firebringer+fireisredsir+Titus:
There's 3 scum left. And with 5/9 of the town being unable to be Kingsguard, that means that only 4/9 town can be Kingsguard.
With only 7 names available to select Kingsguard from, that would be 3/7 scum; scum getting half in the Kingsguard allows them to overthrow.

Scum overthrow the king + kill one of the double-council players, say the doctor/prince.

That leads to no king, no prince, with only 3 conftown alive (Titus+LLD+the cop check), and an entire new council to select:
New King (chance for scum), new Prince (chance for scum), new doctor (chance for scum).

If a new king can keep the existing double powers, then it might be possible to keep them all conftown if the king is one of the conftown and the other conftown inherits both the prince and the doctor, but if the new king can't keep the existing double powers and must distribute them, that's 1-3 which would be distributed to non-conftown players. (Math might be wrong there.)

Even if the scum don't get onto the new council, you're at 10 players alive with 3 scum.
If the elimination is on town, you're at 9 alive with 3 scum, and the all-town council makes up King+3-5, which means that there's no town for the Kingsguard since council can't be Kingsguard, with 9 alive there's only 6 town left and they're all on the council.

Scum overthrow the king + kill on the council again, and then you're at 8 alive with 3 scum and can't stop scum from being on the council at this point no matter what. Even with a scum elimination at that stage, the scum have enough momentum where they probably outright win the game from overthrowing any town king and using the king's execute if a scum king.

All of that snowballs from a Datisi-town elimination, and CAN'T happen with a non-council elimination.

Lukewarm · Post Post #907 (ISO) » Mon Dec 19, 2022 6:47 pm

You seem to place a lot more value in having an all town council then I do.

Like, if Datisi flipped town then the likelihood of an all town council DOES go up dramatically, making Fire1, Fire2 and TSQ all more likely to be town (on top of you and titus being confirmed).

But like, if someone else is added to the council, the council just... doesn't plan their targets in the council thread until after Titus has checked that person

fireisredsir · Post Post #908 (ISO) » Mon Dec 19, 2022 6:47 pm

In post 904, mastina wrote:And there was no reason to eliminate Datisi at 13p.

9p makes sense, it's the default.
11p makes sense if you're concerned about scum having an endgame mechanism. (Which we did.)
But 13p made no sense because it was akin to saying to kill the cop after the cop has gotten one result and only one.

11p is literally the last time you possibly can elim datisi in the worst case scenario, even without any concern of the scum having additional powers. GL laid out the scenario.

13p is giving us a buffer against that, because the additional scum powers were unknown, and also against town potentially messing up in what may actually be elo. playing it safe there was absolutely the correct and rational thing to do.

ISO · Post Post #909 (ISO) » Mon Dec 19, 2022 6:48 pm

In post 905, fireisredsir wrote:that's why datisi's actions were clearly not his own

Actually Datisi's checks were his own.

I made sure of that.

He got to select the picks.

I got to influence them but Datisi made those investigation choices on his own.

So no, Datisi's actions were his own. You were wrong.

fireisredsir · Post Post #910 (ISO) » Mon Dec 19, 2022 6:52 pm

In post 881, mastina wrote:
In post 817, fireisredsir wrote:also agree that datisi played well. will wait to read the scum pt but i talked in the PTs last night that i kinda doubted that going all in for mechanical victory would be datisi's first choice of plan and things might have ended up better if scumteam played more standard.
Datisi explicitly had me giving a huge amount of feedback on his actions.

i was just going off what you said here. obviously he made the final decision, but he wasn't making the choices alone

Lukewarm · Post Post #911 (ISO) » Mon Dec 19, 2022 6:55 pm

In post 906, mastina wrote:Scum overthrow the king + kill one of the double-council players, say the doctor/prince.
That leads to no king, no prince, with only 3 conftown alive (Titus+LLD+the cop check), and an entire new council to select:
New King (chance for scum), new Prince (chance for scum), new doctor (chance for scum).

People are not added to the council every time that council members die.

In the scenario that you just described, I believe only 2 people would be added to the council, not 3. 1 new king, and 1 new prince.

That would be king LLD and prince!who ever Titus checked that night

But regardless, an over thrown would out 2 out of the 3 members of the kings guard as scum. And since confirmed town Titus is the lord commander, she would know exactly who they were.

This is not the argument you think it is.

Lukewarm · Post Post #912 (ISO) » Mon Dec 19, 2022 7:00 pm

Like, the scum could possibly Not Protect the King, and then kill there. But that would just move Confirmed Town Mastina to be the king, because they cannot kill BOTH the king AND the Prince on the same day, without literally outing two of their members.

ISO · Post Post #913 (ISO) » Mon Dec 19, 2022 7:02 pm

In post 905, fireisredsir wrote:you're still making the argument that town shouldn't have thought the way they did, without understanding what the town perspective there would have been

Because they shouldn't.

Scum gambiting is a

possibility

--it is never a

probability

.

Scum giving up on a mislim to endgame is explicitly a

logical contradiction

--scum can't both be at risk of endgaming the town, while also deliberately giving the town an extra mislim.

I'd like to see YOU argue "scum deliberately gave the town an extra mislim because of...gambiting I guess?" in nine games out of ten and see how well that argument pans out. It's never an impossibility but it is explicitly a violation of probability. In the 1/10 where it's true you happen to be right, but in 9/10 times that argument is going to be wrong because it is a possibility, not a probability.

And that's not scum knowledge talking.

That's basic game mechanics talking.

Scum who give the town an extra elimination shouldn't be in endgame territory--if they were in endgame territory when giving the town an extra mislim, they should have won the game by denying the town the extra elimination in the first place. That's not scum logic, that's basic math. If the scum can endgame at 12p but not at 13p then they don't need to put the game onto 13p.

It's literally the opposite of TMI that my viewpoint is arguing.
By the TMI, yes, it makes sense, because by the TMI, as it so happened, we could.

But lacking TMI, then giving up on a mislim should explicitly point to the scum being unable to endgame.
"Scum needed to go to 13p to give a mislim to get to 12p at the night in order to win" would be a TMI argument to make--but

that's the argument town were effectively making

. The TOWN were making the argument that is a possibility which happened to be true.

But the

probability

was "scum can't endgame at 12p, so at 13p the scum aren't even close, therefore, no need to eliminate the cop today".

In post 905, fireisredsir wrote:the most important point that you're ignoring though is that even if datisi was town, town was in a position that was incredibly difficult to lose

I literally laid out how eliminating Datisi was a loss condition for the town in a town-Datisi world. A town-Datisi world means that the scum have easy access to overthrowing the king, and potentially forcing a reorganization of the entire council. (Say, if the king and prince died the same night.)

Know how UNOwen was selected as the king after both Shea and I died with me having not selected a successor?

If that was random, what happens if scum was randomly selected as the King?

You go into 10 alive during the day, with a scum King. Scum executes after selecting a council, and then suddenly, the town that was in a winning position is on the fast track to losing the game from a town-Datisi elimination.

It wasn't incredibly difficult to lose by eliminating a town-Datisi; a town-Datisi elimination would've

ensured

a town loss was almost inevitable. It only didn't because Datisi wasn't town.

ISO · Post Post #914 (ISO) » Mon Dec 19, 2022 7:04 pm

Is everybody still arguing over whether eliminating Datisi was a bad idea or not?

ISO · Post Post #915 (ISO) » Mon Dec 19, 2022 7:08 pm

In post 907, Lukewarm wrote:But like, if someone else is added to the council, the council just... doesn't plan their targets in the council thread until after Titus has checked that person

Scum who were off of the council that gain access to the council gain access to the scum powers.

Again, this is me as scum knowing TMI that this would in fact not help us--but as town, the town wouldn't know that the scum powers wouldn't help us. As town, the town would think the scum powers could allow for, sayyyy, a godfather? Or godfather-by-proxy by redirecting the town cop?

As scum that's TMI as we knew that couldn't happen--but as town, those things

could

have happened.

In the "council is all town right now" world, scum were denied access to the scum powers granted for the entirety of the game up to that point.
In the "council is all town right now" world, scum suddenly gaining access to those powers means

all prior assumptions get thrown out

, including the trustworthiness of results.

Scum who knew what the powers were, knew that couldn't happen--we knew that being elected to the council wouldn't actually help us stop a follow-the-cop strategy because none of the powers can do that without outing that there's scum on the council. (And if there were powers working before and suddenly powers stop to work...well then, that tells you that the new holders are scum, doesn't it?)

But town who don't know what the powers were, didn't know that couldn't happen, and should've been under the belief that it

could

.

My arguments are the opposite of TMI here.

ISO · Post Post #916 (ISO) » Mon Dec 19, 2022 7:10 pm

In post 908, fireisredsir wrote:11p is literally the last time you possibly can elim datisi in the worst case scenario, even without any concern of the scum having additional powers. GL laid out the scenario.

GL laid out a scenario where in 11p Datisi claims a fake guilty and the town instead of using the duels to kill one/both of the combatants and instead of eliminating Datisi decides to blindly sheep the guilty--the scenario simply didn't work without those conditions.

ISO · Post Post #917 (ISO) » Mon Dec 19, 2022 7:14 pm

In post 911, Lukewarm wrote:In the scenario that you just described, I believe only 2 people would be added to the council, not 3. 1 new king, and 1 new prince.

Double powers death + king = 3 powers, not two.

In post 911, Lukewarm wrote:But regardless, an over thrown would out 2 out of the 3 members of the kings guard as scum. And since confirmed town Titus is the lord commander, she would know exactly who they were.

And it wouldn't matter if scum could kill more town than town can kill scum. The town can only eliminate one scum per day; the scum at that point can pretty much permanently kill a

minimum

of two town per day.

Plus if there's not a 100% confirmed scum pool (if the kingsguard is 4 including titus with 2 scum, then there's still one town there that can be mislimmed), then there's room for the scum to just win from the town selecting the one and only wrong elimination to make.

ISO · Post Post #918 (ISO) » Mon Dec 19, 2022 7:25 pm

In post 912, Lukewarm wrote:they cannot kill BOTH the king AND the Prince on the same day, without literally outing two of their members.

True but killing both the king and prince means that even knowing who the scum are you can't stop them fully. With no scum in any killing council role, scum have a minimum of 2 kills per night permanently at that point. If they ever land a killing council role, then they get 3 kills for every scum death. And while there's only 3 scum alive, there's only 7 town alive at that point. And do the math, 7:3, kill one scum, 2+ town die. 5:2, kill one scum, 3:1--IF the scum are guaranteed to be scum, and IF the scum don't get access to another kill.

IF the last scum is outed as such and the scum didn't have any mechanism to deny the town this, then that's a 4p mylo town win. But if literally

anything

goes wrong, the scum win.

This all from an uninformed perspective. None of this is a TMI argument; it's all facts the town had available to them.

ISO · Post Post #919 (ISO) » Mon Dec 19, 2022 7:26 pm

In post 914, RH9 wrote:Is everybody still arguing over whether eliminating Datisi was a bad idea or not?

And now you know why I need to quit.

Lukewarm · Post Post #920 (ISO) » Mon Dec 19, 2022 7:28 pm

In post 917, mastina wrote:Double powers death + king = 3 powers, not two.

At not point have I seen it said that a "double powers death" results in an extra person being added to the council.

The only way that I know that people get added to the council are:

-The king dies, a new prince is added
-The prince dies, a new prince is added
-The Lord Commander dies, a new lord commander is added.

A 100% over throw happens (which can not happen with confirmed town titus as the lord commander)

The doctor dying does not add another person to the council.

ISO · Post Post #921 (ISO) » Mon Dec 19, 2022 7:31 pm

In post 920, Lukewarm wrote:
In post 917, mastina wrote:Double powers death + king = 3 powers, not two.
At not point have I seen it said that a "double powers death" results in an extra person being added to the council.

Not directly, but with the limit of two powers per council member, if every council member has two powers, then...the only possible holder is someone who was previously not on the council.

Lukewarm · Post Post #922 (ISO) » Mon Dec 19, 2022 7:32 pm

If you are assuming a world of all town council, then the scum have 2 paths.

1) killing one person at a time, and the new opening is repeatedly filled with the newest clear from Titus

2) outing themselves by over throwing the king. This kills 2 council members, but we have 2 new clears at that point (LLD + the newest clear from Titus). This OUTS BOTH SCUM and does not get scum onto the council.

Pedit: No. If the council gets to small, then we end up with PRs that we cannot use.

Lukewarm · Post Post #923 (ISO) » Mon Dec 19, 2022 7:33 pm

the King
may
give their duties to another member of the small council

This says to me that the king always had the choice to not assign a role to someone, because otherwise this would say must

ISO · Post Post #924 (ISO) » Mon Dec 19, 2022 7:39 pm

In post 922, Lukewarm wrote:2) outing themselves by over throwing the king. This kills 2 council members, but we have 2 new clears at that point (LLD + the newest clear from Titus). This OUTS BOTH SCUM and does not get scum onto the council.

There's 3 scum alive at that point--and the town can only eliminate one scum per day.

A double-kill brings the town into 10 alive with 3 scum. 7:3. IF two scum are confirmed as scum (and that's an 'if', if the kingsguard is 4 including Titus then they explicitly ARE NOT--there is a non-conftown town in the kingsguard so while it's known there's two scum there it's not known which of them are the scum), then the town can only kill one of them per day. Since having a Kingsguard is mandatory, it's mandatory to keep electing members there meaning scum will always be on the kingsguard or the council or both.

You can make absolutely sure the council is town maybe, you can make absolutely sure the kingsguard can't overthrow the king without being confscum maybe, but you can't have both at the same time. One will always happen, with a chance of both happening. (Scum getting council + scum having overthrow power in kingsguard.)