Supporters of the King

[GuiltyLion]

The 50% PT thing? Or something else

[Datisi]

hey gl, you around from now until deadline?

i'll be on rereading parts of the game; i'll be posting mostly in the council pt but i would enjoy if we had a Jamming Session if possible

[GuiltyLion]

yah, I will be here!

we should definitely jam - my main two questions are a) how are you feeling about FB, and b) do you agree with me that 1230 from Dann is pretty significant point for LLD scum? I'm having a hard time seeing what the scum motive is to that post if she's town, other than to possibly get himself on her good side. but it's not like she was a super loud anti-Dann force in the thread. I'll reread that part of the game for a bit more context but that post just feels like an overt attempt to get a scumbuddy on the council to me

also if you have updated thoughts on town/scum in furtive, drapion, enchant, roden, would be interested in discussing those. furtive asked me why I think he's mafia in the kingsguard PT and not here, which I feel is a little ? when I was calling him out here and didn't say anything about him in the Kingsguard PT

[UNOwen]

The 50% PT thing? Or something else

Yes the 50% PT. Even more so now that Dann has flipped scum, it makes sense to me that he could have reported on pro-coup murmurings in the scum PT and Roden got confused about what was public.

Although I still haven't checked yet whether my impression of the main thread at that point is accurate.

[Datisi]

alright, awesome!

a) i'm still feeling firebringer is townie, b) i don't know? i definitely don't think lld is townie or anything, and that post definitely Does Not Look Good in a vacuum, but it would be really dishonest of me to say it's indicative one way or another without looking at context / thread climate first

furtive scum, drapion scum?, enchant town, roden town? are my current thoughts, but they're not exactly, well, updated. i will def be taking a look at all of those, so stay tuned ig

what happened with the you/furtive convo in the kingsguard pt? anything interesting?

[Datisi]

ctrl+f'ing "lld" in dann's iso, he goes from... having a weird nullish antagonizing read of her, to saying he'd support her in the council, because ??? reasons

[Datisi]

lmao it goes from "lld's trajectory this game feels townie to me" into "here's an essay of why lld is Scum, Actually"

[Datisi]

ok, i have looked at 1230 and surrounding posts, and i have found something Interesting

the coronation vc from 855 (viewtopic.php?p=13555268#p13555268) to 1189 (viewtopic.php?p=13556129#p13556129) - the thing to note is that vp baltar went from my one vote to being tied for top wagon

i figured that, if vp baltar's read on lld were trending upwards, i could see buddy-dann trying to help out with the read

so i open baltar's iso around that time, and uh

viewtopic.php?p=13556061#p13556061
viewtopic.php?p=13556103#p13556103
viewtopic.php?p=13556143#p13556143
viewtopic.php?p=13556157#p13556157

the first two are him generally just saying that he wants to interact with lld, but like in a way that is clearly him wanting to sort her, in the third one he heavily talks about potentially giving her power, and the 4th is similar him "wanting" to townread her bc she good at town etc

and shortly after, dann is like "i'd support if lld were on council, actually"

the other king candidate was you, and you had a "lld prob town idk lole is day 1" read on her, so i can see him wanting to influence both of you here

in conclusion, yes i do think that post from dann is bad for lld

[GuiltyLion]

> a) i'm still feeling firebringer is townie

sorry if this is redundant but what are your like, strongest/best reasons. cause I think UNOwen is right about what he's been calling out about FB and I know you've said a few times FB feels townie in the council PT but I just have to operate based on what I see in the main thread and I don't think he's been unfakeably townie there, with several instances of doing stuff I think is generally scummy (avoiding UNOwen challenge yesterDay after doing it the day before, pushing UNOwen over NAI reasons I don't agree with)

I'm in agreement with you on the furtive/enchant/roden reads, Drapion I don't know if I know him well enough as a player to be able to suss out if he's town/scum, what makes you lean scum? I feel like vibewise he seems genuine and definitely not afraid to push his own reads/arguments, but I don't know to what degree he's capable of faking those things and what his scumgames normally look like

nothing interesting in kingsguard PT, he basically just quoted a post where I said I'm TRing Shea and I will protect and asked why I have him as "third" mafia - referencing my posts here - and I asked if there was a reason why he asked in that thread and not in this one and he said the other thread is more intimate.

[GuiltyLion]

also has firebringer indicated Updated Reads in the council PT? is he still pushing UNOwen?

[Datisi]

firebringer does have some updated reads, but i am hesitant to share more at this time

i ctrl+f'ed "fireb" in both your main thread iso and your sup pt iso to see your reasons, and i am kinda like. unconvinced (i'm currently looking for his unowen reads to reread that)

in the meantime, can you tell me how these two fit toghether?

Subject: House of the Dragon - Night Four

that's another good point, I don't like that FB has tried to push the idea of "all town council" since like the start of the game

also on Firebringer, I don't see why he goes so hard on the "this is an all town council" angle if he's scum? Like that's just ceding power to whoever is town on the council, whereas I think scum in his spot would want paranoia there, and potentially set up to bus if need be.

[GuiltyLion]

I think if he's the only scum on the council, then it makes more sense to push "all town council" idea - stay on council member's good side, look good when council members flip and even better if town yeets them without you.

previously when I thought that was townie it's cause I thought other people who were more likely to be scum (Math, Johnny) would be attractive miselim candidates for scum if they were town, and not worth saving if they were scum with firebringer. but now I am thinking that was WK energy that (successfully) fooled me at the time, precisely because I didn't see the scum agenda for it.

[GuiltyLion]

i ctrl+f'ed "fireb" in both your main thread iso and your sup pt iso to see your reasons, and i am kinda like. unconvinced (i'm currently looking for his unowen reads to reread that)

I would read UNOwen's cases/reasoning instead of mine, I think UNOwen has been more sharp and accurate in calling him out

[Datisi]

i have read unowen's cases and i thought they were bad

i will give them another look now, but eh

do you townread unowen?

btw, where is the roden scumslip thing? i can't find it and i don't remember

[Datisi]

i think roden is probably town

while he is absolutely infuriating me with a lot of his posts, there is something interesting in dann's big post viewtopic.php?p=13570310#p13570310

this is the vc: viewtopic.php?p=13570051#p13570051

top wagons are johnny, roden, unowen. dann votes lld.

first, i think that vote absolutely can be a bus. second, notice his reads at the bottom - johnny, titus, lld, roden are in red. johnny we know flipped town, and he was one of the wagons.

roden is one of the wagons, he is red. unowen is one of the wagons... and he's a top townread.

i had asked dann multiple times who does he townread unowen, he never told me

ig this by itself isn't really damning but idk i do not like some stuff from unowen and this is not making me feel better lole

[GuiltyLion]

what is the stuff you don't like about UNOwen? I am townreading him, yeah, I think he feels very similar in style to Situation Room and I haven't really ever thought he was disingenuous or embellishing or misleading with any of his statements or reads. I don't see what the case on him is, at least certainly not how FB has presented it. I also think it's pretty townie UNOwen has been so willing/aggressive to challenge FB on back to back days, what's the benefit to him there as scum, considering if he gets redflipped it cements Firebringer as town, I don't see who his endgame/carry wolf is in that world.

I do agree with you that Dann post/timing looks good for Roden though

did you answer my question about Drapion? what makes you suspicious there

[GuiltyLion]

I think UNOwen's points on FB evolving from "sheeping Luke" to "I dislike GL's posts", and his points on FB playing dumb/confused are good.

I don't agree with him on the 50% PT thing, I think Roden did exaggerate but unfortunately I think Roden has a propensity to get facts like that wrong as town, I am not sold it's indicative

[GuiltyLion]

here's the first post I think where the 'scumslip' happened, then there's a lot of back and forth around it where Roden is kinda pointlessly antagonistic and dodgy. 3198, 3201, 3211, 3354

[Datisi]

i think unowen has not very good associates with dwlee, and looking now they're not great with dannflor either.

i think his case on firebringer is lowkey nonsense. the point about firebringer re-evaling after a second time you did something but not the first time is very nitpicky

i actually disliked his posts on firebringer's treatment of you a lot - i spoke a lot about this in the council pt, i'll go quote my posts in a sec, but a lot of his points there felt like he has tmi on the alignments of you and firebringer, because i did not get the feeling he's townreading you a lot, or scumreading dwlee, prior to that event

[Datisi]

here's the first post I think where the 'scumslip' happened, then there's a lot of back and forth around it where Roden is kinda pointlessly antagonistic and dodgy. 3198, 3201, 3211, 3354

this interaction makes me wanna kashoot myself lmao

[Datisi]

Spoiler: my posts from the council pt about my issues with unowen

i dunno

looking in the main thread, fireisredsir what you outed as "here is unowen clearly thinking about firebringer" happened like right after firebringer made those posts around gl that look "bad". but like, he didn't say anything concrete about firebringer, he just did some weak questioning to junko. if that's when he started to suspect firebringer as you're assuming, it feels weird because dwlee was not yet flipped and he didn't have an exactly strong scumread of dwlee from what i can see. he didn't even have that strong of a townread of guiltylion.

it just feels like... it's tmi and preparing for a future push. it's like he knows gl is town and firebringer is town shitting the bed and dwlee is scum who's going to flip scum and he can then give shit to firebringer

because like if he's getting sus of firebringer there, that assumes he townreads gl and scumreads dwlee and that's not exactly what he's said

idk, i kinda disagree with firebringer's actions there being scummy, "even if you don't know anyone's alignment". the idea of scum killing someone and then openly going "u kno what i sheep you now that you're dead" as means of getting momentum there is wack. but even if that is supposedly scummy

i don't think you could argue that's scummy in a town-dwlee scum-guiltylion world, for example. or both of them being scum, or both town. (i mean, you could, but it would be much much weaker than in the scum-dwlee town-gl world)

this is going to be a bit fucky to explain, but

You see, my problem with this situation is that every single playera on the Guiltylion wagon has presentes why guiltionlion's actions and overall engage with the Game could come from scum, GL has interacted with many of us and has a clear cut group of people backing him up

Where did Firebringer do that?

What are you even asking?

"every single playera on the Guiltylion wagon has presentes why guiltionlion's actions and overall engage with the Game could come from scum" <- this includes Firebringer right?

these two posts (and lack of any others) are weak questioning. this isn't shade, and it's not saying anything about his alignment in a vacuum, it's a fact

at the time, unowen's reads were "gl not obvscum / not actively distrusting" and he did vote dwlee on d1, but he also switched the vote away from them onto charloux before d1 ended. he also didn't even vote dwlee at start of d2, only later

this is part of your 4315:
"asking that question to junko without actually having ever made this point or cased anything means that it's clearly something he's been thinking about but hasn't stated in thread yet, for whatever reason. and questioning someone else on it is a step removed, he isn't directly engaging the point, something else triggered him to ask a question based on the thought that was already there. he doesn't ask that question if it isn't something that's already on his mind"

and i think you're confbiased in this assessment. unowen did not give any sort of read on firebringer prior to these two questions. he also didn't directly talk about firebringer anymore on d2

i don't think "he isn't directly engaging is townie", actually i think it's scummy in this scenario. because what is he supposed to actively engage with there, when both dwlee and guiltylion are unflipped?

in the supporters pt, unowen does have a post where he's telling gl that those posts from firebringer are bad because firebringer is trying to lay low while also trying to get more momentum against gl (paraphrased)

and just. i don't feel like he was actually townreading gl that strongly or even scumreading dwlee that he would find those stuff as suspicious at the time of d2

because i am kind of like
- if he, during d2, thought firebringer was really suspicious for those posts against guiltylion, why does he not actively say that firebringer is suspicious for them, regardless of what dwlee/gl are?
- if he thought firebringer was suspicious during d2, and had a strong town/scumread on gl/dwlee, why doesn't he include that?
- if he didn't think on d2 those posts are suspicious, but later on circled around to them in light of starting to townread gl and dwlee flipping red, why does he ask those weak ass questions?

like i look at those posts and i can much more easily see a mindset of someone seeing that a townie (firebringer) is doing something anti-town and wanting to build a foundation for a push later, without thinking whether his currently expressed worldview makes sense for starting to build that foundation

---

note - i wrote the above before reading the wallpost unowen wrote about his gl read, i wanted to get the above out without that. now i'll go read it and report back

[GuiltyLion]

I agree from cmd+F "dwl" ISO skim that UNOwen's associatives with Dwlee aren't great, actually, that's a good point against him. But I think the associatives with Dann strike me as uninformed that Dann is mafia - he doesn't go out of his way to make a show out of 'sorting' or 'reading' Dann, he doesn't try to maneuver to look good on his flip, I think it fits a profile of a town player who thinks Dann might be scum but isn't a high probability/informative flip. I may be biased cause that's exactly how I felt, but I don't think that's a bad or likely S-S associative there.

I see where he's driving at with FB ignoring me the first time I made a halfass meta defense of UNOwen but not the second, I think the context of "why did FB decline UNOwen's challenge" is what matters there

but I am sympathetic to your last point so I'll give your council pt quotes an open ear, just got p-edited on those

[Datisi]

I see where he's driving at with FB ignoring me the first time I made a halfass meta defense of UNOwen but not the second,

I think the context of "why did FB decline UNOwen's challenge" is what matters there

you see, i think this would be a decent point for firebringer-scum... if he they hadn't gone and challenged furtiveglance

[GuiltyLion]

hmmmm ok that third post is a good point, I feel that. in that he could have been more vocal/assertive in getting involved and expressing these thoughts/reads on D2 as they were happening, instead of D3 after the fact. I think it's fair to be suspicious of that. it

might

be a playstyle thing but I can't deny that there's a compelling explanation/scum-motive there in the town!FB world

regardless I say we yeet LLD tomorrow as we seem to have agreement there and then hopefully you can get a useful cop shot

[GuiltyLion]

you see, i think this would be a decent point for firebringer-scum... if he they hadn't gone and challenged furtiveglance

well, why did he challenge furtiveglance? I thought that was weird when he claimed to have a stronger read on UNOwen. I feel if it's scum FB / scum furtive that might have been a ploy to set either of them up as town in case one of them died in the duel