Open 869 | Fight for the Winter Court [Game Over!]

[Coral]

Math, I think scum were probably trying to maximize their chances of winning the Gate. Me and absinthe were about equally active day 1, there was some suspicion on me (maybe more on absinthe though), and I had said that I was bad at 1v1s (which is true, I just haven't ever needed to 1v1 here). Tempest also is more familiar with absinthe and may second guess that she would swap herself in as scum here. Based on day 1 it seems reasonable to expect a good chance at a win in Gate for scum absinthe.

If there were 2 scum in Keep and 0 in Gate, so skitter being town, that would mean they had very few swaps they could make. With Faker very likely to push absinthe as scum, absinthe escaping the Keep may have been the most pressing concern. Someone has to go to Gate, and someone has to get pulled into Keep. skitter seems like a reasonable choice there.

If skitter is scum, then I guess the hope would be that Faker and catboi would tunnel on each other and would prefer to vote skitter? It does seem like a risky move to make, and they would have a lot more possible swaps available to them, so it would surprise me.

If Faker is scum, again I don't understand the approach to day 1 at all, but given the position heading into night, the swap at least makes some sense for setting the narrative that Faker and absinthe are unaligned.

[Coral]

Most of your response was under the assumption of Isis scum, but I think what I've said applies regardless. I don't think Isis is really any more or less likely to make a good strategic choice for swapping than any other scumteam composition here. I think regardless of the scumteam, they made what they thought was the best choice given the information they had.

[catboi]

No worries.
Is it skitter you want to vote?

yeah

[Aisa]

I feel like Math is very likely to be town. I think he has a certain energy where he feels like everyone is against him and I think that is much more likely to come from him as town replacing in. I don't think he gets much out of being abrasive as scum here, and I think he's probably capable of taking a different approach if he thought that would benefit him more.

I've read pages 75-79. An astoundingly productive 30 minutes, I know.

Anyway, I vibe with this. Townlean on Math acquired. Congrats.

P-edit: oh

perfect

with what I just said, catboi . /s.

[MathBlade]

Okay that was a bit rushed and mod confirmed is a bit of a hyperbole.

It’s been a very much discussed issue of scum are drastically incentivized to not vote. Our game we must hammer town to win. So scum stall the game by doing nothing is what I mean. Town has to take the risk and by making myself as obvious town as possible then the risk is immunized as my reading skills tend to be ubmmm atrociously bad?

[MathBlade]

The rest of this will have to wait until after work sorry.

[Coral]

On the other hand I think Math's self-awareness of his reads being bad and hesitance to push them is more scummy than not. I don't feel like the confident energy that he had on replace in has continued as much as I would expect.

[Tempest]

Catboi -you haven’t seen anything scummy in the way skitters been evaluating math?

I don’t know skitter’s style but she feels sideline sniping rather than solving.

I guess prism could have hoped to manipulate me by ic’ing me, but I don’t know. Skitter could be town, I’m just not as convinced of it as you are.

[Tempest]

On the other hand I think Math's self-awareness of his reads being bad and hesitance to push them is more scummy than not. I don't feel like the confident energy that he had on replace in has continued as much as I would expect.

I also agree with the last sentence.

Mafia is hard.

[Tempest]

I’m not trying to sway your vote though; I have no conviction either way. Vote however you want.

[MathBlade]

Well it’s honestly not there. I am about to have likely another 13+ hour day.

I can’t say I am confident on much when I can’t devote the brain juice to it.

I am confident in my non confidence lol

[Coral]

In either a town or scum Math world, catboi following through and voting skitter (when skitter is here and active and able to self-hammer) is probably a loss. He's not doing much to prevent that from happening but I guess there isn't much he can do at this point.

If catboi is scum, the vote would be placed in the hopes that Math recognizes this and panics and votes catboi, thinking that catboi is town for being the one to vote.

[Coral]

The reasoning behind the first paragraph being that if Math is town and he sees someone vote someone else, the logical conclusion is that town just voted scum, because scum wouldn't vote unless gambiting. Scum catboi here probably is forced to gambit, though.

[MathBlade]

In either a town or scum Math world, catboi following through and voting skitter (when skitter is here and active and able to self-hammer) is probably a loss. He's not doing much to prevent that from happening but I guess there isn't much he can do at this point.

If catboi is scum, the vote would be placed in the hopes that Math recognizes this and panics and votes catboi, thinking that catboi is town for being the one to vote.

Pretty much this.

If Skitter is town like you said she likely doesn’t vote me no matter what I do.
If Catboi is town votes me then we win.

If Skitter is scum she never votes me anyway.

Like the game is outside of my control so I would prefer to solve in the last game of Chara and Aria.

I don’t feel Isis scum makes these strategic plays

I know you said a ton of wordy words in response and I haven’t read it

But I focus on what I can possibly control versus what I can’t.

[Coral]

Whether Keep or Gate is resolving first, my opinion is that it makes sense for Keep to have a hard deadline of resolving before skitter's v/la begins tomorrow, especially if she is the one who is being voted. I think having one member of the minigame absent from thread for a long period of time can create some tricky potential scenarios that are probably best avoided.

And waiting until after seems like too long, because if the game isn't over after Keep and Gate, there's a lot to reassess and dig through for the remaining town in the Wall + Tempest

[Isis]

Isis is really any more or less likely to make a good strategic choice for swapping than any other scumteam composition here

you take it back


Isis is less likely to make a good strategic choice for swapping than any other scumteam composition here

[Isis]

nonjokingly I think you're correctly pointing out how stacked the lobby is

I remember one time in the Death List open micro I had to make a suboptimal mechanical play because everyone in the lobby except MariaR was so casual and disinterested in mech that MariaR would probably immediately know I was scum if I made the optimal mechanical play

if you add 7 MariaRs like here then you just stop reading the mech actions that way tho

[Isis]

Hectic is smart but I had already mislimmed him I mislimmed Hectic do you know how badass you have to be to mislim Hectic as scum it's almost impossible

[Isis]

I'm dosa tresa cuatra and cinca

[Aisa]

Isis, were you actually Una in Treestump Express? Just want to know if I've experienced (one version of) your town game before.

Gentle reminder I asked you this question. If you'd rather not answer for whatever reason, feel free to just ignore it and I won't bring it up again.

Read over the last few pages.
I don't think Math's barometer on Chara's decisiveness is accurate for Chara, but it looks like a sorting effort, I don't really follow skitter's "wrong therefore scum assessment".
I'm uncomfortable with skitter's posting about being voted. Yes technically it's optimal no matter what, but there's different manners of acknowledging that. It's more like she's putting forth a proposition and insisting everyone accept that proposition or reject it rather than mentioning she'd like to be voted every time she remembers little things she townreads about her primary keep scumread.

How comfortable are you with Math's posting about being voted?

[Isis]

Better than skitter's, worse than catboi's unless catboi's wraps all the way round to acknowledging the dynamic too little and it's calculated to make me say so.

[Isis]

If a keep or gate player makes another post without resolving a game I'm gonna vote and it's gonna be so unfair to the new repin

[Aisa]

I mean you and Chara could cross vote I wouldn't mind that at all

I have read from page 75 to now for the record, I'm just trying to figure out what to say next lol
Keep is grabbing all of my attention right now but is there even a point in me directing any resources towards that at the moment?
Then again is there any point in me directing any resources towards Wall when the game could be over 24 hours from now without me having to do anything about anything

[Coral]

Isis is really any more or less likely to make a good strategic choice for swapping than any other scumteam composition here

you take it back


Isis is less likely to make a good strategic choice for swapping than any other scumteam composition here

I will not!

I hope I don't count for the most recent statement since I am not in control of when my game resolves

[Coral]

If catboi isn't scum then my concern about Chara would probably rise again. skitter/absinthe/Chara was my day 1 scumteam guess at one point, at least.