Election! | GAME OVER

[GuiltyLion]

on the meta point Bingle - this is not exactly what you asked for, but I think it's actually a compelling example. Some years back I played a newbie game where scum!Titus quick hammered the claimed doctor on D1. In my mind, that's an objective scum claim, so I entered D2 pushing Titus hard, and was met with a bunch of newbies not understanding how scummy Titus was. I got riled up and pissed off and town eliminated me instead.

here's my opening post on D2, and I encourage you to read through the thread and watch what happens when I'm met with pushback, how frustrated I get and how much I desperately keep trying to appeal to people about how obviously scum Titus is and why she needs to go. It's the same thing happening here.

[GuiltyLion]

I also make the exact same callout about how scum!Titus starts immediately arguing and discrediting ME simply for scumreading her, instead of trying to find scum

the parallels are good here

[UNOwen]

I'm not gonna give a speech

Sounded like a speech to me.

[Alisae]

i want a fast election but we're not gonna get it

[GuiltyLion]

If anything, I’d expect town you to be more interested in unpacking what aliscum would mean than trying to push through an elimination you clearly expected to go through without any assistance.

oh and I want to respond to this cause it deserves a point - I think I would get to there if I trusted that everyone agreed on Aliscum, but the sense that I'm getting is that this is very much not Consensus, so my primary drive right now is to lead and push the thread towards going towards my preferred elimination for once and keeping the spotlight on my main suspect

you're not wrong that I expected Aliscum to be a more common sentiment than it seems to be, but that's not scum!indicative at all, that's just how I feel about any time a player claims a night action that doesn't align with what happens, the level 0 and most likely world is that the player lied, and I'm genuinely surprised people are so willing to entertain alternate ideas where Alisae is town without any real evidence for them and without any townvibes at all from Alisae today.

it meant a lot to me when sheep said he agreed Alisae's posts were performative cause I feel like I'm on such an island trying to call attention to it and being met with either complete silence, being told I'm wrong or bad vibes. like if anything it almost makes me nervous that I

am

wrong and scum is WKing Alisae, but Alisae emself doesn't seem suspicious at all about people defending em (completely ignored my post when I tried to ask Alisae what e thought of sheep defending em) and so if Alisae is actually town and isn't even remotely worried about situations where I'm town then this game is already lost because I truly cannot and do not want to see a world where Alisae is not immediately flipped next if I'm flipped today

[furtiveglance]

This is very tough. I don't know what to base reads off more, voting or posting

[SleepyKrew]

damn I woke up this morning because my calf was cramping and it STILL hurts. fucked up

this is a metaphor

[Bingle]

on the meta point Bingle - this is not exactly what you asked for, but I think it's actually a compelling example. Some years back I played a newbie game where scum!Titus quick hammered the claimed doctor on D1. In my mind, that's an objective scum claim, so I entered D2 pushing Titus hard, and was met with a bunch of newbies not understanding how scummy Titus was. I got riled up and pissed off and town eliminated me instead.

here's my opening post on D2, and I encourage you to read through the thread and watch what happens when I'm met with pushback, how frustrated I get and how much I desperately keep trying to appeal to people about how obviously scum Titus is and why she needs to go. It's the same thing happening here.

I see this and am acknowledging it, as that should count as game advancement so I don’t get prodded.

I spent the day celebrating the news that my cousin is officially in remission from what we expected to be terminal cancer and didn’t get to this. Sorry.

[sheepsaysmeep]

congratulations

[sheepsaysmeep]

I think im gonna vote like, GL and Uno I guess

even tho I think furtive slightly more likely to be town than GL but both are townreads

I would maybe have abstained from voting if I thought more than like 3 ppl had submitted

[sheepsaysmeep]

alisae "kill me today or make me sheriff" just doesnt make much sense to me and seems fake I guess

dont see a reason from any pov why we wouldnt be able to just like.. treat it like all the other slots and sort it normaly that way

[furtiveglance]

I think im gonna vote like, GL and Uno I guess

even tho I think furtive slightly more likely to be town than GL but both are townreads

I would maybe have abstained from voting if I thought more than like 3 ppl had submitted

WHAT

YOU TOWNREAD ME MORE BUT WANT TO PUT GL IN CHARGE OF OUR NIGHT ACTIONS

WHAT????

[Thestatusquo]

STD has been prodded

[GuiltyLion]

YOU TOWNREAD ME MORE BUT WANT TO PUT GL IN CHARGE OF OUR NIGHT ACTIONS

what do you think is the risk if scum is treasurer? we know how it works now and the current state of the treasury is public knowledge. whoever is treasurer is going to be leashed and we can even hash it out in the main thread instead of the council thread as others have stated. Someone whose actions go against the consensus plan of the town would be scumclaiming.

...right?

[GuiltyLion]

I spent the day celebrating the news that my cousin is officially in remission from what we expected to be terminal cancer and didn’t get to this. Sorry.

also no need for apologies here, that is awesome news, congratulations to your cousin! I hope it was a grand celebration!

[furtiveglance]

YOU TOWNREAD ME MORE BUT WANT TO PUT GL IN CHARGE OF OUR NIGHT ACTIONS

what do you think is the risk if scum is treasurer? we know how it works now and the current state of the treasury is public knowledge. whoever is treasurer is going to be leashed and we can even hash it out in the main thread instead of the council thread as others have stated. Someone whose actions go against the consensus plan of the town would be scumclaiming.

...right?

I think it would be a decent idea for scum Treasurer to just fund no one and get voted out the next day

[GuiltyLion]

kinda like if a scum doc just docs no one to let the cop die and then fights to worm out of the elimination the next day? wouldn't that be exactly what a scum doc would do?

[Alisae]

alisae "kill me today or make me sheriff" just doesnt make much sense to me and seems fake I guess

dont see a reason from any pov why we wouldnt be able to just like.. treat it like all the other slots and sort it normaly that way

It is the optimal way to go about things

[Alisae]

Village wants the mafia to confirm me as town
Hence why village should want a target on my back

[Alisae]

Like yes I should be treated like a normal slot

[Bingle]

I think it would be a decent idea for scum Treasurer to just fund no one and get voted out the next day

It wouldn't, actually. First of all, trading a scum player for a cop shot is effectively forcing the cop shot to be reliable. Town wins if scum makes those trades.

Second, the treasurer wouldn't live through the end of the day. If they don't fund, we get the info they won't fund and then immediately lim them. I'm not sure how you wouldn't know how that works, weren't you on the D1 council?

[Thestatusquo]

STD has requested replacement and I will find one if its the last thing I do.

Of note, we might get an extension in the deadline for votes if this takes a while.

[Alisae]

STD Villagery

[Bingle]

I think Alisae lying is clearly the most likely explanation, it seems that opinion is not widely shared, how do I go about convincing people it's the most likely explanation? I could do the math, ask people to assign probabilities to P(scum have a role blocker), P(scum role blocker is active on N3) - (does it need funding? is it X-shot? would they have used it on N1 or N2?), and P(scum correctly guessed Alisae was doc), and then do the actual math to show the compounding unlikelihood once you take all those things together.

I mean... people tend to find math arguments unapproachable unless you can explicitly relate them to something, but your calculus isn't right here, which is problematic to me.

The assumptions that go into aliscum are: Ali rolled scum(3/9), Ali decided to risk being risk eir slot on a gambit to kill the cop (not unreasonable as a scum choice) (P(A)), Ali decided to fakeclaim a doc shot instead of claiming that e WIFOM'd the third role at [person] as a gambit to try to catch scum off guard(P(B)).

I don't think the assumption that as scum Ali would trade emself for a pseudoconf slot with a cop shot is an unreasonable one if Skrew is town, but it's also not a given. If anything I think it's less of a given than a scumteam deciding that it's a good idea to try to fake a guilty result.

Which brings us back to: How likely is it that scum had a way of messing with the doc going through.

Ways I can think of a scumteam being able to kill through a doc:

Roleblock the Doc
Strongman
Interfere with Funding

Ali's point about FTC is 100% a relevant argument because it's functionally an argument that something along those lines exists. The argument that this isn't follow the cop because scum can mess with the cop through funding is silly because even in the case of town ONLY being able to fund the cop, scum is restricted to playing whack-a-mole with the cops/results. It's kind of the whole point of our "elect a scummy cop" strategy. If scum doesn't play ball and doesn't have a way to interfere, then the game is hugely broken for town due to what is essentially ftc. If scum does play ball, we're in functional nightless, where EV says that the perfect balance is 12:4 but observational balance is closer to 8:4. It is impossible for town to have run out of funds funding only the cop prior to today. Literally. The minimum possible roll for funding each day is explicitly 10*n where n is the number of players. The odds of us not having enough to both cop and track on D1 was less than 1 in 10 billion. Technically, it could happen.

We know that we have more potential power than just a cop per night. So we have more power than a setup which is explicitly townsided, which was the entire point of my NA plan. We know scum has some amount of power, and thus almost certainly some way of fucking with our results. That's a given. From a townAli POV, eir role definitely failed in a way designed to get them limmed and you jumped into the thread with the clear agenda of achieving eir lim. It seems entirely reasonable that that would lead to a scumread on you.

Roleblocking, specifically would require the scumteam to pick out Ali as the protective source. Interfering with the funding *might* require that, depending on how it works. Strongman wouldn't require it at all. LLD and Uno would have known the person who could have been protecting. A scum team with notAli, notLLD, notUNO, notBingle is a pretty small scumpool. It leaves only two town the remaining 4 people. Even if the scumteam is in the other five entirely, it's not unreasonable for them to have guessed that LLD would have used the "very strong power". AD's post of "I hope LLD didn't use the very powerful ability" at the very beginning of D3 makes me think a scumteam would be more likely to guess Ali would doc over LLD. An uninformed scumteam with me would have guessed that specifically because it was known Ali had a doc and possible that Uno had a doc, so all things equal Ali was more likely to be the one protecting.

tl;dr

The probability of scum being able to actively fuck with this result if Ali is town is actually pretty high, imo. Which leads back to: would Ali, who was willing to risk eir slot to kill a cop fake the result failing instead of saying "I thought scum would assume the cop was protected so I used a watcher or whatever on AD. Bingle visited him and made the kill."

Which leads us back to: who is the scumteam if Ali is scum here?

[Bingle]

STD has requested replacement and I will find one if its the last thing I do.

I'd much prefer it be the first thing you do, tbh. I'm not sure I want to play this game if it results in your death. Seems like a pretty shit trade.