Open 875 - The Kindgom of Zeal: The Queens Chosen - GAME OVER

[Ranger]

and I'm feeling like disengaging with this game cause I think this game is bullshit

is there any possibility of being the change you want to see instead
im kind of on the fence about ranger right now and i don't think im alone in at least having significant questions

I believe this was not scum-scum and was Cephrir manipulating Gimli.


307 also indicates LLD's not scum with Cephrir to me.

[Ranger]

VOTE: furtiveglance

VOTE: furtive

Why is Furtive suddenly a wagon

Why not

Reading these, they loosely indicate the KawaiiKame slot as not scum with STD+Cephrir.

STD is more neutral in the interaction, situationally suspect if the swap was strategic.

I also get Korina/Kawaii not scum with Gimli, so at this stage: who would KawaiiKame be scum with?

[Ranger]

Vote Count 1-5.5

Ranger

(

5

3)

:

Lady Lambdadelta -

Ranger -

redFF

-

Umlaut

- Korina

furtiveglance

(6)

:

Gimli -

Cephrir

- Save The Dragons, Umlaut, PenguinPower, redFF

Not Voting

(3)

:

Ethel

- Radical Rat -

furtiveglance

The furtiveglance wagon at L-1 had three town players hop onto it.

While I doubt the furtiveglance wagon was frontloaded with 3 scum, I feel it's unlikely to be just the 1. {LLD/Korina, Cephrir, Radical Rat} is possible. {LLD, Korina, Cephrir} is possible, albeit doubtful. (To reiterate, if two scum were on my wagon, there's no reason it shouldn't have gone through.)

I think it's quite likely the scum did wagon furtiveglance here with more than Cephrir.

[Ranger]

Ceph I STG if you flip Furtive over Ranger and it flips town, you better shoot me tonight because I'm coming for you tomorrow.

This is quite promising for LLD being town as well.

[Ranger]

And also because town STD has been a steady miselim in just baout every game i've played with them recently and scum STD hasn't so I'd rather see the amount of pushback STD gets as the day grows but shhh that was a secret i wasn't supposed to say that

Weirdly, Save the Dragons hasn't been pushed this game...at all.

Until today.

[Ranger]

Wouldn't it be funny if this was meant for the scum PT and was about Ceph+STD being scum together while LLD wasn't?

no redFF lives today we do gimli

VOTE: redFF :3

I don't think this was scum-scum. I believe the focus to redFF was deliberate.

There's a risk of {Gimli, STD} here. However, it could more simply be they felt redFF had a higher chance of being a non-Ranger wagon to go through.

[Ranger]

Vote Count 1-9

Ranger

(5)

:

Ranger

- KawaiiKame - Radical Rat -

redFF - Umlaut

Gimli

(1)

:

Lady Lambdadelta

redFF

(5)

:

Save The Dragons -

furtiveglance - Ethel

- Gimli -

Enchant

Enchant

(1)

:

Cephrir

VOTE: redFF

VOTE: RedFF

Given the choice between myself and redFF, Cephrir chose to vote redFF and Radical Rat (who was most strongly advocating for an elimination on me previously) hammered immediately after.
This in spite of 724 (stating suspicion on Cephrir) and no suspicion on redFF and having specified N1 is the optimal night to claim as scum (and redFF claimed N3).

All of these indicate deliberate strategy in the hammer of redFF over myself.

It looks quite bad for Radical Rat.

[Ranger]

- I've been vibing with Gimli for most of the day phase, so I'm going to throw him into the town bucket for today.

- I think scum!you would be playing to potential opportunities better, so either I get some associative from today or you are town. Either way, you are a no yeet.

- RR and redFF are basically null, but just a bit below. this is entirely gut based on their posting.

- Korina/Kawaii is scum, entirely because of korina. They don't believe what they say, in fact contradict themselves across pages, and just followed whatever you wanted to do as a smokescreen for their actions.

For what it's worth; this is Penguin's last reads. (From context I believe the 'you' is LLD?)

Obviously, reads aren't the only reason for a kill. It's quite likely Penguin was killed for other reasons. Players wanting to keep the gamestate without it being shifted, Cephrir thinking it's a good kill in general, etc.

Still, this loosely supports LLD/Gimli townreads, and most of the D1 evidence does as well.

I do think the scum pool is 2/3 of {StD, RR, Kawaii}.

I

lean

towards StD/RR as the team, but will continue reading to be thorough.

[Ranger]

Feel free to chime in if you've thoughts to give on what I am reading as well.

I realize my formatting isn't very conductive to being engaged (apologies), since I'm not asking open-ended questions. Still, before tomorrow will be the last chance for feedback, since decision drops tomorrow at the latest.

[Save The Dragons]

you're wrong

[Ranger]

While Cephrir knew he was dead regardless, I believe 990/992 and the numerous Cephrir posts after do say one of {StD, Kawaii} is scum.

The question becomes;
Did Cephrir tell the truth knowing he would go down (Kawaii scum, StD town),
Or did Cephrir Cephrir invert the alignments knowing he would go down (Kawaii town, StD scum)?

It's

possible

he had two town as opposite in the way he did.
(It's possible he divided scumbuddies up as well. Not as sure there.)

I don't feel that's true.

Loosely, I think it's likely the latter. The former is surface-level (distancing); it feels Cephrir would leave the interactions he thought we'd least predict. It goes down the WIFOM hole.

[Save The Dragons]

992 was probably a pocket attempt

[Ranger]

you're wrong

Yes that's quite possible.

If so, can you help me see it?

[Ranger]

992 was probably a pocket attempt

Cephrir was guiltied scum.

He was going down either D2 or D3. He

couldn't

survive.

There wouldn't be a pocket attempt.

Only his choice in a legacy.

[Save The Dragons]

i think lld has a lackluster partner in kawaii and is not really feeling this game because she's tired of carrying games (see PYP).

[Save The Dragons]

he could have pocketed me to vote furtive first

[Ranger]

Cephrir why did you request lld post before day end

thought she might read the situation correctly

This is a lackluster justification which I feel is actually +town for LLD.

It sadly says nothing about STD to me.

[Ranger]

i think lld has a lackluster partner in kawaii and is not really feeling this game because she's tired of carrying games (see PYP).

I don't get these vibes at all, sorry.

[Ranger]

Radical Rat is doing some really strange mental gymnastics that are possibly outside their townrange

I feel this is apt not just of the events on D2 but of later as well.

The mental gymnastics required from Radical Rat are by far more complex than the simpler explanation; Radical Rat is scum pursuing a scum wincon.

[Ranger]

I think you're wrong about me. Social reads definitely play a large part, but

I do favor logical analysis/mech where it's available.

Not that you have any real reason to believe me right now, and I'm much too lazy to dig up games, but for future reference you're just wrong here.

This feels important given Radical Rat's retraction of claim is based on something they later admitted, after I spent twenty posts explaining it, was a mechanical error.

They specify a preference for logical analysis and mechanics.

What am I meant to think when a player like that makes a glaring mechanical error lacking the logical analysis?

[Ranger]

StD I'm fairly comfortable with being Town. Nothing I've seen from him so far has raised any alarms.

LLD is probably Town as well. Whether you agree with her or not, it very much reads to me like she's genuinely attempting to solve the game, and I don't think she'd be so easily frustrated if she already knew she was lying.

One of these does not seem like the other.

Notably I agree with the LLD take; it is both logical and matches everything I've been rereading.

The StD take seems oddly out of place.

[Ranger]

RR is town.

Ethel can be scum.

Kawaii can be scum only if Ranger is town though. If Ranger scum kawaii town.

STD scum.

Ceph dies before lylo.

Enchant prolly town.

Uhh

Why is RR town? They should have known better than to vote me.

Contrary to popular belief, I am not perfect

RR dude. Furtive is claimed scum. They are trolling post hammer.

This also feels telling.

Radical Rat's response indicates they knew furtiveglance would flip town.

LLD's a good enough player to fake belief town will flip scum, yet this interaction in particular seems like she didn't.

[Ranger]

I have no checks.
Cephrir has to die today of course, and hopefully we'll have something to corroborate Umlaut before tomorrow.

This does read to me as Radical Rat softing investigative.

no checks

It feels suspect for these two, and these two specifically, to be the ones stating "no checks".

Oh so it's all 6.

Notably, this makes me feel Radical Rat's claimed play is damning regardless of whether it was genuine or not.

If Radical Rat was genuine in making a mechanical error, then Enchant's last post fits with Radical Rat's mistaken worldview, as spewing Enchant as a cop. If Radical Rat made a math error, then Enchant saying "oh it's 6 cops" would be taken as a cop claim by a scumteam with Radical Rat...when Enchant was referring to having four flipped cops and Umlaut/RR being claimed.

If Radical Rat was lying about making a mechanical error, then it is lying about a mechanical error.

I feel the reason for Radical Rat being scum changes, yet RR remains +scum regardless.

[Ranger]

I've finished up to today (where interactions are less telling although I feel still useful);

At this stage, I'm at:

Radical Rat > Save the Dragons > KawaiiKame > Lady Lambdadelta > Gimli

Gimli's been spewed town repeatedly and has no scum interactions at all.
Lady Lambdadelta's a skilled scum player fully capable of pulling a solid scum performance off, but the net total of all her actions across the entire game read consistently as town almost without fail, and her interactions with flipped scum and other slots also seem anti-scum. It's

possible

; I don't think she is.
KawaiiKame's a null slot overall. Korina

loosely

has some weak antibuddy interactions, that's about it.

Radical Rat and Save the Dragons both have interactions suggesting they're scum with each other and Cephrir. By play, StD has

moments

of looking town and so does Radical Rat; overall, Radical Rat by far looks the most likely scum and StD the most likely scumbuddy.

I won't vote until tomorrow, so you'll have time to discuss;
As-is:

Intent to Vote Radical Rat

[Radical Rat]

I have no checks.
Cephrir has to die today of course, and hopefully we'll have something to corroborate Umlaut before tomorrow.

This does read to me as Radical Rat softing investigative.

no checks

It feels suspect for these two, and these two specifically, to be the ones stating "no checks".

Oh so it's all 6.

Notably, this makes me feel Radical Rat's claimed play is damning regardless of whether it was genuine or not.

If Radical Rat was genuine in making a mechanical error, then Enchant's last post fits with Radical Rat's mistaken worldview, as spewing Enchant as a cop. If Radical Rat made a math error, then Enchant saying "oh it's 6 cops" would be taken as a cop claim by a scumteam with Radical Rat...when Enchant was referring to having four flipped cops and Umlaut/RR being claimed.

If Radical Rat was lying about making a mechanical error, then it is lying about a mechanical error.

I feel the reason for Radical Rat being scum changes, yet RR remains +scum regardless.

Enchant said that AFTER I claimed to be the 6th cop. If anything that would suggest he wasn't one, since he didn't express any doubt toward myself or Umlaut.

And to your earlier point about me favoring mech for solving and being wrong about something... yeah, I can be wrong sometimes. Quite frequently even. If I were lying about being wrong, why would I bother pretending to be convinced afterwards? And if I did decide to pretend to be convinced, why fight you so hard on it first?