Open 875 - The Kindgom of Zeal: The Queens Chosen - GAME OVER

[Detective Penguin]

[Enchant]

No i unvoted randomly.

[Cephrir]

Let someone else have a turn with the hammer yeesh

[Cephrir]

You have played with it enough and it is time to give someone else a turn

[Enchant]

It's Not_Mafia turn, but he is not here so i take his place.

[Gimli]

enchant's just looking for one divine hammeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeer

[Radical Rat]

Literally no one is trying to kill you today anymore.

I count as someone.
I don't want to deal with you pushing me every day phase.

It's my preference to die today because even if you're pushing elsewhere--your read on me remains. You're scumreading me. You want me dead. You can choose to not pursue me today. You still want to pursue me eventually. D2. D3. Until I die.

Easier to remove the distraction D1 than have it in the game until I die later.

I would just like everyone to read this post, bearing in mind Ranger has claimed to have an N1 action. She apparently has no interest in using her action whatsoever, which I find to be completely unbelievable if such an action actually exists.

[furtiveglance]

I like the idea of redFF elim, Ranger protects me.

[Gimli]

yeah I don't know if ranger would doc you

but maybe someone else will

[Radical Rat]

I like the idea of redFF elim, Ranger protects me.

I like that idea too. Too bad Ranger doesn't actually have an ability, and even if she did with you as one of her stronger scumreads I don't trust her to use a doc on you.

Fortunately there's potential for other, realer Doctors to exist

[Ranger]

Nights of action are chosen independently for each PR so it doesn't give us even partial information about anyone else.

Disagreed. The more claims for a night, the less likely all are to be town. Providing the information on which night I act informs the odds on other slots.

Clearly she's willing to go elsewhere and not just blindly tunnel you into oblivion

Willing to go elsewhere, yes.
Will drop the read, no. And every day she holds it is more dangerous than the last. What happens if LLD and I both live to lylo? If LLD was willing to go elsewhere every day prior?

Vote Count 1-9

Ranger

(5)

:

Ranger - KawaiiKame - Radical Rat - redFF - Umlaut

KawaiiKame

(1)

:

Detective Penguin

Gimli

(1)

:

Lady Lambdadelta

redFF

(5)

:

Save The Dragons - furtiveglance - Ethel - Gimli - Enchant

Enchant

(1)

:

Cephrir

For those fond of VCA this should be gold for you.

She apparently has no interest in using her action whatsoever

You're being disingenuous.

I've already stated I'd have preferred to live if not for LLD's push on me.

{Lady Lambdadelta}
{Gimli, Cephrir, Save the Dragons, Detective Penguin}
{Enchant}
{Ethel, redFF}
{furtiveglance}
{Umlaut}
{Radical Rat}
{KawaiiKame}

[redFF]

Should i claim? Im n3 cop

[redFF]

Nights of action are chosen independently for each PR so it doesn't give us even partial information about anyone else.

Disagreed. The more claims for a night, the less likely all are to be town. Providing the information on which night I act informs the odds on other slots.

This isnt how odds work lol
From the wiki -
The Mod then randomises a number from 1-5 for each town player. This is the one night that the players' role works on.

[redFF]

Say you flip a coin 4 times and it flips tails 4 times, what are the chances the next flip is heads?

Its 50%

[Radical Rat]

I'm not being disingenuous. If your ability were real, you would want to eliminated D2, not D1. You saying D1 is better is just for you to justify not really playing the game.

[Radical Rat]

Say you flip a coin 4 times and it flips tails 4 times, what are the chances the next flip is heads?

Its 50%

That's true of any individual, but not so of groups. While we can't know WHO is lying, because for every individual the odds are equal, for every person who claims to have an ability on a given night, the likelihood that at least one is lying goes up.

Right now we have two N1 claims. The odds of either, individually, being true are 20%. But the odds of both being true simultaneously are only 4%, because you would need a second event with 20% probability following from the first. A third claim would reduce this to a less than 1% chance that all three are telling the truth.

In your coin flip example, the odds of the next flip being heads are 50%, but the odds that you initially flipped four heads in a row are about 6.25%.

Having said that, it's still not really helpful because regardless of whether you're Town or Scum, the correct claim is that you act on the next night. As Scum, it's the easiest argument to keep you alive, and as Town, you want to make scum's nightkill decision harder AND be kept alive.

This setup does not incentivize truth

[Gimli]

the odds of furtive or ranger's claim being true equals to the odds of them being town, which is about 75% for each. the odds of them both acting on n1 equals to the odds of them both being town, which is ugh 56%? of course that and not 4% lol if it was 4% we'd have nothing left to discuss

[Enchant]

So claims are useless. Let's kill randomly.

[furtiveglance]

Why did Enchant unvote redFF, bit sus

[Gimli]

Why did Enchant unvote redFF, bit sus

he wants to hammer

[Detective Penguin]

Why did Enchant unvote redFF, bit sus

pretty sure we established it's so enchant can hold the hammer

pretty sure you should know that enchant's thing

[furtiveglance]

Yeah ok

Does someone want to set that up then

[Gimli]

the odds of furtive or ranger's claim being true equals to the odds of them being town, which is about 75% for each. the odds of them both acting on n1 equals to the odds of them both being town, which is ugh 56%? of course that and not 4% lol if it was 4% we'd have nothing left to discuss

the odds of them being whatever night whatever thing should NOT count! because otherwise look at what happens: someone's town equity reduces from 75% to only 20% just because they hardclaimed! of course, that can't be accurate.

[Radical Rat]

the odds of furtive or ranger's claim being true equals to the odds of them being town, which is about 75% for each. the odds of them both acting on n1 equals to the odds of them both being town, which is ugh 56%? of course that and not 4% lol if it was 4% we'd have nothing left to discuss

No it doesn't. Town isn't guaranteed to tell the truth. And in this setup Town is actively incentivized to NOT tell the truth.

Though my 4% number is actually wrong because I forgot to take into account that you have to be Town to get a night number in the first place, so. It's actually not a straight 20% chance an individual acts on a given night, it's less than that but I'm too lazy to do the actual math.

[Gimli]

so you're saying furtive and/or ranger can be town but not act n1 and be lying about it?