Open 878: Scarfolk Council | The End

[Aisa]

(!!!!! the hamster in the wheel is still reeling from thinking about that Egix post)

I still feel like fire is a good vote for reasons previously mentioned, @aisa in particular lmk if you’re leaning elsewhere as you’re my most solid TR

Ok I understand this might be frustrating, I think I want to yeet Ydra today

I think I’m basically at the same point I was a couple days ago, where I feel fairly good that flipping {fire, Ydra, Dunn} ends the game but trying to choose the exact yeet causes much anguish

For some extra context @Mena, I don't know how to handle your adamancy about fire because I agree that he's a decent flip. As demonstrated by the above post, he is one of the stops in the fantasyland dictatorship where I get to choose three eliminations
He's just not the first stop

[Ydrasse]

meh

i can't be bothered to quote 234234 things to illustrate points in excruciating detail but r.e dunn i think that that his posting is pretty bad with wolf!sheep, he has a lot of posts where sheep is in the pool but it's alongside other people and he keeps like evaluating but it never quite ends up on sheep, ended up calling aureal worse and tried to eliminate there, made posts that were weird dichotomies of "pick x or y and then lim a or b" so on, his pool/teams feel very like. ad libs sort of "put people in a poe" together to me

otoh if it is aureal he's just like, right on the other mafia that happens sometimes but he keeps trying to kill my slot and i know thats wrong so i think im less likely to give good grace/reasonable doubt there, it comes across more intentional

[Ydrasse]

id say you probably win if i die today by going aureal > dunn

i dont think its cephrir

[fireisredsir]

How are you cool with 2539 then?

i meant as scum

[fireisredsir]

oh i see ydra used the same phrasing to mean something else

she meant "go aureal into dunn"

i meant "i scumread dunn more than aureal"

[fireisredsir]

(!!!!! the hamster in the wheel is still reeling from thinking about that Egix post)

this is how i felt and why my reaction to it was vote + plead for everyone to read those pages lol

[Aisa]

There remains a certain irony if I'm helping fire wiggle out of it for (goodness me) the third consecutive game day

[Ydrasse]

i mean maybe but i dont think it makes a lot of sense atp

if i were to answer why egix did anything at all i would but alas

[Aisa]

imagine me hand waving wildly at everything sheep said about fire yesterday

I take it you don't feel so wildly about this anymore?

[fireisredsir]

everyone honestly should probably not listen to me at all and should make their own choices instead lol

[Menalque]

id say you probably win if i die today by going aureal > dunn

i dont think its cephrir

You also don’t think it’s fire?

[Menalque]

(!!!!! the hamster in the wheel is still reeling from thinking about that Egix post)

I still feel like fire is a good vote for reasons previously mentioned, @aisa in particular lmk if you’re leaning elsewhere as you’re my most solid TR

Ok I understand this might be frustrating, I think I want to yeet Ydra today

I think I’m basically at the same point I was a couple days ago, where I feel fairly good that flipping {fire, Ydra, Dunn} ends the game but trying to choose the exact yeet causes much anguish

For some extra context @Mena, I don't know how to handle your adamancy about fire because I agree that he's a decent flip. As demonstrated by the above post, he is one of the stops in the fantasyland dictatorship where I get to choose three eliminations
He's just not the first stop

Okay noted, I will probably go with you on it depending on deadline, but it’s a shame that the RL timing has worked out like this bc I feel like if I could have a good back and forth with ydra I could quite probably get to a solid read on her

[Menalque]

But I just don’t think I’ll be able to, I worked all day today and I’m not sure if it will be same again tomo, I’m just doing personal life admin now before sleep

Will try to check in again but it may be similar to this, tomo I mean

[Menalque]

Aisa is definitely town, aureal is v likely town by virtue of being the CW, it’s possible ydra is scum who bussed but more likely is that both scum were defending sheep I think

Which makes it fire + (ceph/dunn)

The fact that ceph is trying to angle for a lim on aureal here instead of limming on the CW to sheep makes me think it’s more likely him vs dunn but I need to read them both in ISO to check that

Also while I think fire is the absolute right play for today we shouldn’t rush day

You need a way better reason to clear aureal

Do I? Cause I really think “was on scum wagon while flipped scum was on her wagon” is a pretty strong argument for not killing her

When the scum wagon was pretty heavily town driven, unless you want to argue that both aureal and ydrasse are scum in which case go ahead but it’d better be incredibly compelling

yeah that's not compelling at all sometimes scum lose control of a day and what are they gonna do when that happens, not crossvote and just claim scum?

Are you saying aureal/sheep just shit bussed each other? If so where?

im just saying that i don't think it's impossible they were forced into voting for each other

I mean I guess I agree with that, sure

[Menalque]

FYI for thread I just got to the summer camp I’m working at so… i will be posting when I can but please ping me in specific things I need to see

I still feel like fire is a good vote for reasons previously mentioned, @aisa in particular lmk if you’re leaning elsewhere as you’re my most solid TR

@aureal also ping me if you want me to look at stuff

What do you think of how sheep tries to keep up the fire wagon as pressure starts to come towards him? About here through page 86

viewtopic.php?p=13817258#p13817258

While also claiming that scum don't want it, to boot. Heh.

Sorry this is potentially 3 pages and I don’t have that in me right now, magic 8 says ask again tomorrow

[Menalque]

To those who worried the wagon on enchant was too easy yesterday — look how much more difficult the fire wagon is proving to be and there is a more meaningful effort to counterwagon onto skitt

still reading but I think this is an unfair point to make as fire is playing the game while enchant did something other than that

I mean I’m reading fire but idk why you asked me to go back when this… does not look good for you

like i said it's mostly about aureal

idc how i look lol

mostly its just a really significant portion of the game where things are loosely starting to shift away from the tvt of me vs skitter and people are opening up to the possibility of limming sheep, murmurings are building from multiple town angles, and it isn't ever really fully shut down until implosion shows back up basically like "ok we're doing fire or skitter"

i think in that time in between, the gamestate was kinda up in the air, and seeing how everyone responded to that shift in the game and how they may have tried in influence it or react to it is really telling

and i think notably ceph and aureal responded in a towny way and then i think egix showed up with one of the scummiest possible reactions to the situation imo

i guess maybe its less significant without knowing my alignment lole but idk just flip me and then look at it afterwards

This is maybe the towniest thing you have posted this game, but also as mentioned I don’t have the energy to look now but I will reread those pages with aureal in mind again

[Aisa]

I wanted to make a list of things to look at that might convince someone that Aureal is town on a future day. However, I got bored, so you only get one thing:

Spoiler:

i think ive found a recognizable pattern of play that sheep likes to apply to people in order to build connections and generate content. see interaction with aisa starting in 482

i would be pretty willing to bet that he doesn't do this in this way to a partner so im gonna look for more of these

aureal - purest tone ive played with in a long time which is +town

but I keep coming to that push on me as a little bad faith. I think "sheep hasn't been explaining things and his contributions have started lacking" feels weird to assert like that because it ignores context. at first, I was definitely not what theyre describing, I started the game pretty thorough. then, I was like we just need to kill enchant here lol--which could be wolfy, but it completely explains what theyre describing. then, I outright say, im lacking motivation for this game and not going to do much, which could be wolfy, but it explains what theyre describing. to the point where it's wolfy to just be like "sheep is doing these things, these are wolfy things so obv sheep is a wolf"

I was going to write about aureal being wolfy but that post resolves a lot of my concerns

this game is just fucked so weird

This is more for a future day, but what concerns did you have, and how did Aureals post resolve them?

I felt like they were hinting at wariness about the fire wagon but not being outright enough. struggling to find the words to describe it rn; like shading the fire wagon. like when I felt weird about the fire wagon (first I talked about how I felt about the wagon and then I saw aureal's earlier posts) I feel like I did it much more directly. the recent post is like definitely very direct and I think her concerns about red wagon are pretty similar to what my concerns were lol with some differences but similar enough that it's like a mind meld

If you go and look at that interaction with me starting from post 482, sheep's vibe is "Ehh idk about your push on me. Why are you being so indirect? So wolfy that you're pushing me, but only a bit."
In the other two posts he does the same Aureal.

[Aisa]

Ok, I'm at a point where I don't think it's particularly worth the return on investment for me to spend much more time re-evaluating today.

I want to vote for Ydra. I'll give her 12 more hours in case she wants to leave any last wishes.

I understand Ydra's read on Dunn, particularly the doubts about this stuff:

Spoiler:

implosion I see two likely teams right now. I see egix/fireisred/cephrir, and I see egix/aureal/sheep. I think both of these are plausible and I'm not sure I want to commit to one today. I think the four non-egix names above are not meaningfully interacting with or considering egix and so if we believe that two of those names are mafia, that makes egix much more likely to be mafia as well in my eyes/ Notably several of these players have gone after me, sometimes multiple times, for things such as "low activity" while never mentioning egix who I feel also fits under that criteria.

Can you explain how you came to the conclusion of these two teams specifically?

Like, what is your starting assumption? Is it {fireisredsir, cehprir, aureal, sheep} contains two mafia? Is it that Egix is scum?

I start with egix mafia. I believe fireisredsir and aureal are not aligned with each other but do believe there is mafia in that group. So 1 out of 2 there. And then the last mafia is in the group that is the rest of my poe, which is cephrir and sheep - this is where I am the least confident, as well, as it is based on having everybody else as town with no flips.

But Dunn is not a difficult target right now and her read is not explained much by her own admission. It doesn't really make me reconsider wanting to eliminate her slot

[Cephrir]

Prod dodge

[Umlaut]

Prod dodge

• “Prod dodges” (posts with no game-related content) will be disregarded for purposes of the prod timer.

[Umlaut]

Aureal was prodded.

[Umlaut]

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